Flying High

The ES futures are tickling 1914 (our all time high) right now and that suggests we may see a squeeze all the way into the close. We are currently seeing reversal signs across but this is one of those situation where you simply have to listen to price as we could easily see a blow off top before we ever see any signs of a correction. Wouldn’t be the first time, right?

Let me first show you what’s irking me. For one there’s that divergence on the VIX:VXO – it’s subtle however and I may just be paranoid. But then there’s also this:

At least until just recently when we touched the old highs the VIX has been rising along, so someone (i.e. market makers) is getting nervous up here. Plus let’s not forget that VIX Sell signal that’s now on the books (it’s relative to equities, not the VIX). Again, this may just be a fluke and I’m still open to the blast off scenario. I mean the tape hasn’t exactly been acting bearish, has it?

So this is how I would play it – if we don’t run up too high today then we may get an inside candle on the NQ. It’s closely following the spoos regarding strength and that’s how I would try to catch a long setup.

Now if things fall apart I want to be positioned in the laggard which is the TF. With some luck it’ll produce an RTV-S here below the 100-day SMA. Pretty neat if it triggers – but currently at least the odds are low.

Quick update on yesterday’s cocoa campaign – doing well so far and there’s nothing to do really. We haven’t earned one R yet but with a bit of luck it’ll keep pushing higher toward the upper 100-day BB.


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Cheers,

Time To Take Profits

Equities continue to defy gravity but at the same time we’re accumulating evidence that a shake out is nigh and that means I’ll be bowing out of our current long campaign on the E-Mini. If you’ve traded along then I encourage you to at least take partial profits here – let me show you what I’m looking at:

We’ve earned about 1.5R at this point and although it’s nothing to write home about it’s money in the bank and we’re taking it. Actually if the trigger had been a bit smaller I may have simply tightened up my stop but the current potential for a shake-out suggests that it’s best to cut out here and reload at a better opportunity. I don’t have a crystal ball but wouldn’t be surprised to see the plotted scenario on the chart start playing out sometime before the EOS Friday.

There’s also this – unless we slide today before the close the VIX will be closing above yesterday’s close. And that means we will have a bonafide VIX sell signal in place (noobs – that is relative to equities, not the VIX). Actually the smartest thing the bulls could do today would be to slam equities lower tonight near the close and thus shatter the formation. As a caveat – in the past few years VIX Sell signals have been rarer than pink circumcised unicorns. So it’s tough to say if they actually will be able to drag prices much lower.

Gold – we’re all about full disclosure here at Evil Speculator and here’s one that didn’t play out as planned. You recall I was long for almost two weeks now with a well placed (so I thought) stop at 1280. Well, this turned out to be a profitable formation but not for the Mole as we slid the other way. And unfortunately I wasn’t around to flip the position – when I noticed what had happened it was all over. But in any case the TA was sound and this was a beautiful pattern – especially had you grabbed that inside candle at the tip. Well, you can’t catch ‘em all – but we can try!

I have but one measly setup tonight and sorry guys – unless I want to find myself tarred and feathered I have to keep that one for my subs (they are an unruly bunch).


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Cheers,

Fish In A Barrell

While most of you leeches remain hypnotized like moths by the spasmodic flames which are consuming hapless victims on the equities side, we stainless steel rats have been banking coin courtesy of the laundry list of AAA graded setups I have been delivering here on a daily basis. I told you guys you’re going to miss out again and this time was no different.

Let’s start with the obligatory spoos update. Not much to be said here – we’ve got a total flatline on the Zero Lite which means there’s no participation today. Could mean anything and most likely it’s a bit of a shake out before they ramp it.

However, we may not be done yet – quite a distinct divergence on the GBP/JPY today.

Same on the EUR/JPY – short term it’s pointing down. Possible we may see a further slide on the equities side EOD.

NZD/USD – I told you guys to get back in on a second breach and that happened today. Banked us 1R today and I actually intend to keep this one open as well. My new stop would be at b/e.

Wheat – our first campaign earned us 1R and we just banked another courtesy of the IP we painted yesterday. Judging by the overall pattern (left panel) we may have a runner here. Thus I have decided to keep this thing going even if we close back above the 1R mark today.

Copper – back at the trigger point – this is your 2nd chance to get in.

Gold – now at its make or break point. If it pushes above 1310 then she’s going to take off like a rocket. That was one sweet entry and had you been a sub you would have known about it (hint to you leeches).

Dollar – looked at that position when I came back from the gym and I couldn’t help but laugh. Didn’t I say it always pays to bet on Dollar weakness near major inflection points? That short right below the daily/weekly SMA combo paid off nicely. Plus there’s a new setup on the table – more below.

CAD/CHF – IP trigger yesterday (we subs got in late and avoided the shake out) and she’s off to the races. Again I’m leaving my stop at the b/e point.

So there you have it folks. I’m trying to make this as easy as it gets but in the end you guys have to pull the trigger. That said, let’s get to the setups – we have a plenty!


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Have at it boys and girls – FWIW, I would enjoy to see less P3 talk and more constructive participation here. I’m glad everyone’s finally showing up to work but is anyone banking coin? Participation here is not a rite toward becoming a successful trader but it sure helps.

Cheers,





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