The Blood Letting

Looks like this move caught a lot of folks by surprise as I don’t see the bears doing their occasional victory dance either. Not that they wouldn’t deserve one after all those years of pain. Which goes to show that high volatility tape without technical context can be detrimental to your account. It also shows that moves to the downside can be quite a bit faster than those to the upside. However if they move fast they usually flame out equally quickly. So let’s see where we are:

The volume profile chart shows us near the bottom of the high volume range we’ve been bouncing around in since early February. As you can gather participation drops off quickly after around 1830.

There’s not much in terms of technical support there and even the 100-day SMA on the E-Mini is looking a bit iffy. It’s been a while since it has been tested, so let’s look what else we got.

1844 came and went already since I took this snapshot. Which is why I called the 100-hour BB soft support. In strongly trending tape like this you cannot rely on upper/lower Bollingers. There need to be more in place to justify a counter directional play.

The weekly has us in mid-air until about 1817 and if things don’t slow down here near the close then it’s possible we’ll pay it a courtesy visit.

Gold campaign update – not elated about today’s drop lower but it is what it is. As we’re painting an IP we’ll move our stop to the lower trigger. You can add a contract if we run back up and breach today’s highs. May be a LKGB – we shall see…

Natgas – that one we took this morning (sub setup from Friday) and it’s looking good! Already breached a NLBL and that’s a definite plus. But don’t get too comfortable yet – Mrs. Natgas is a cruel mistress and we are not in the clear just yet.

ZB update – that also was a sub entry from this morning actually. It triggered like textbook at the NLBL and hasn’t looked back. I’m now looking for a spike low so I can advance my stop. Also a positive is the NLBL breach on the daily panel, so if all goes well we may turn this into a daily campaign. But I would keep the trending campaign management via the spike lows.

And another update – this time on the CAD/CHF. Here we were kicking butt and taking numbers but today we dropped back half of what we earned on Friday. Bugger – we’ll be closing this one out today as we have breached 2R and will probably close below it. So ignore what I typed on the chart – I got it wrong. Today’s long trigger on the IP is however valid – and so is the short trigger of course.

Two more goodies below for my intrepid subs:


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Happy hunting but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

It’s Lonely At The Top

Equities across the board ran into a brick wall this morning. Being Friday and all the timing was exquisite and in my mind the whole March unemployment shpiel or [fill in explanation of your choice] was just an excuse to scare out some of the children. I actually got pretty lucky in my short term NQ long as I was stopped out before things accelerated to the downside.

A quick visit to our trusted E-Mini volume profile chart suggests that here continues to be a volume chasm starting at 1890. As the saying goes, it’s lonely at the top.

Something I pointed out yesterday and I hope some of you guys were tracking it. The GBP/JPY continued pointing down and the divergence finally caught up with equity traders. I keep telling you rats – Forex is the dog that wags the equity tail.

Here are the spoos in all their gory – as of this writing the lower 100-hour BB seems to be offering some support. On the daily we are probably going to close as a shooting star but unfortunately we are in an uptrend now and that doesn’t give us a short entry. However should the highs be breached we do have a pretty good long trigger. Whether or not that will happen is anyone’s guess – I just work here.

Besides I have better things to do than to chase after those inane stock market wankings. Here’s natgas which I still love right here near a daily NLBL. I posted this one yesterday and it’s crept a bit higher – keep an eye on this sucker starting Sunday night.

Time for some updates. Gold banked us 1R and will probably close below the mark. And that means we take profits – heck, it’s money in the bank and someone has to pay for my illustrious lifestyle.

Crude still on the way and I’ll keep it running over the weekend as is.

Cocoa – who would have thought? Boy oh boy – it’s already jumped to the 2R mark and will probably close below it. I say let’s close her out here 1.5R and call it a week.

And that would be my cue to wishing you all a smashing Hefeweizen infused early spring weekend!

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Prost!!

Setup Bonanza!

Interesting turn of events this morning – although my growing cautiousness concerning the equities (long) side has thus far paid off I’m not yet convinced that we’re heading into another correction. Be this as it may, I did get positioned nicely courtesy of the TF this morning and I intend to hold this position for now or until stopped out at break/even:

Although there was a quick fake out toward the NLBL my stop was well placed and thus far I’ve racked up almost two R. Which is nice but not really what I’m interested in – I’m turning this into a lottery ticket to the downside given what I’m seeing on the short term momo side:

VIX:VXO (which I showed to the subs yesterday) continues to point downward. Again, it could be a fluke or a bear trap but I already earned my entry and I’m sitting pretty right now.

Out of fairness I should however show you guys the Zero Lite which is rather flat today. So not much participation on the downside here and I give this 40% chance to continue lower. I don’t see a long entry here right now either unfortunately – once I do I’ll let you guys know.

Update on the Dollar entry which I hope some of you guys grabbed yesterday. The right panel shows us at the 2R threshold and that means we are either moving our stop up if we close above it or close our position if we close below it. That is via the CrazyIvan campaign rules. If I would employ Heisenberg then I would have taken partial profits a bit above 1R and moved my stop to b/e. So I leave this in your capable hands – it’s possible that the Dollar is going to enjoy a run higher. But heck – it’s the Dollar right? So I’ll stick with CI rules on this one ;-)

So many awesome setups today – here’s crude gracing us with a very interesting configuration I tried to explain on the chart. Could swing either way and we are near the $100 mark – will definitely take whatever trigger this throws at me.

And I cannot believe I’m actually giving this one away for free as it’s my favorite. I have already gone long via this morning’s short term entry near 104. My stop is at today’s lows and all that ties very nicely into the IP and RTV-L that any of you leeches may grab later tonight. Absolutely love this setup and I think it’s coiled up and ready to snap.

More goodies below the fold – it’s a veritable futures bonanza today – seems Hoss is getting all excited. Please grab your secret decoder rings and join me in my freshly painted spring lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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