Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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It’s Lonely At The Top

Equities across the board ran into a brick wall this morning. Being Friday and all the timing was exquisite and in my mind the whole March unemployment shpiel or [fill in explanation of your choice] was just an excuse to scare out some of the children. I actually got pretty lucky in my short term NQ long as I was stopped out before things accelerated to the downside.

A quick visit to our trusted E-Mini volume profile chart suggests that here continues to be a volume chasm starting at 1890. As the saying goes, it’s lonely at the top.

Something I pointed out yesterday and I hope some of you guys were tracking it. The GBP/JPY continued pointing down and the divergence finally caught up with equity traders. I keep telling you rats – Forex is the dog that wags the equity tail.

Here are the spoos in all their gory – as of this writing the lower 100-hour BB seems to be offering some support. On the daily we are probably going to close as a shooting star but unfortunately we are in an uptrend now and that doesn’t give us a short entry. However should the highs be breached we do have a pretty good long trigger. Whether or not that will happen is anyone’s guess – I just work here.

Besides I have better things to do than to chase after those inane stock market wankings. Here’s natgas which I still love right here near a daily NLBL. I posted this one yesterday and it’s crept a bit higher – keep an eye on this sucker starting Sunday night.

Time for some updates. Gold banked us 1R and will probably close below the mark. And that means we take profits – heck, it’s money in the bank and someone has to pay for my illustrious lifestyle.

Crude still on the way and I’ll keep it running over the weekend as is.

Cocoa – who would have thought? Boy oh boy – it’s already jumped to the 2R mark and will probably close below it. I say let’s close her out here 1.5R and call it a week.

And that would be my cue to wishing you all a smashing Hefeweizen infused early spring weekend!

 

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Prost!!

Setup Bonanza!

Interesting turn of events this morning – although my growing cautiousness concerning the equities (long) side has thus far paid off I’m not yet convinced that we’re heading into another correction. Be this as it may, I did get positioned nicely courtesy of the TF this morning and I intend to hold this position for now or until stopped out at break/even:

Although there was a quick fake out toward the NLBL my stop was well placed and thus far I’ve racked up almost two R. Which is nice but not really what I’m interested in – I’m turning this into a lottery ticket to the downside given what I’m seeing on the short term momo side:

VIX:VXO (which I showed to the subs yesterday) continues to point downward. Again, it could be a fluke or a bear trap but I already earned my entry and I’m sitting pretty right now.

Out of fairness I should however show you guys the Zero Lite which is rather flat today. So not much participation on the downside here and I give this 40% chance to continue lower. I don’t see a long entry here right now either unfortunately – once I do I’ll let you guys know.

Update on the Dollar entry which I hope some of you guys grabbed yesterday. The right panel shows us at the 2R threshold and that means we are either moving our stop up if we close above it or close our position if we close below it. That is via the CrazyIvan campaign rules. If I would employ Heisenberg then I would have taken partial profits a bit above 1R and moved my stop to b/e. So I leave this in your capable hands – it’s possible that the Dollar is going to enjoy a run higher. But heck – it’s the Dollar right? So I’ll stick with CI rules on this one ;-)

So many awesome setups today – here’s crude gracing us with a very interesting configuration I tried to explain on the chart. Could swing either way and we are near the $100 mark – will definitely take whatever trigger this throws at me.

And I cannot believe I’m actually giving this one away for free as it’s my favorite. I have already gone long via this morning’s short term entry near 104. My stop is at today’s lows and all that ties very nicely into the IP and RTV-L that any of you leeches may grab later tonight. Absolutely love this setup and I think it’s coiled up and ready to snap.

More goodies below the fold – it’s a veritable futures bonanza today – seems Hoss is getting all excited. Please grab your secret decoder rings and join me in my freshly painted spring lair:


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Cheers,





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