Post FOMC Madness Update

Finally this month’s FOMC madness session is behind us. As usual I won’t bore you by regurgitating any pertinent tidbits of the day – if you’re interested in the noise I’m sure you’ll know where to find it. Let’s look at some charts instead – shall we?


Yesterday I told you guys that such a sharp jump off the lows usually suggests continuation higher. So far that’s exactly the scenario that’s been playing out. If you’ve been taking Scott’s hammer time setup – good job and you may now move your stop to the break/even mark.


Interesting range on the hourly day – we touched both sides and that now establishes the SMA and the upper BB as respective break out / reversal points. However, as I said – at this point odds support continuation higher. Unless we breach below 1982 the bears are officially toast (again).


The NQ is now approaching a daily NLBL which is also near the 25-day SMA. IF it manages to breach higher then more upside is pretty much procedural.


And what really really hits below the belt line is the 18% drop on the VIX since yesterday (and we also touched it earlier today). If you were sitting on puts then your premiums just got flushed down the toilet. If you were long calls then (depending on your strike) you may have actually suffered a loss today. Vega squeeze is a bitch indeed.


Update on the USD/JPY campaign – I got stopped out today and then re-entered just in time for the ride higher. Taking 50% profits now and converting the rest to a daily campaign. Never ever underestimate the potential for extended squeezes (long or short) on the FX or futures side. Never.

BTW, that was one beautiful BB squeeze on the hourly – I hope some of you rats took this one.


The EUR/NOK is still in play but it’s so-so – I’m keeping it in play and my stop will take of the rest if it must.


EUR/JPY – another short term campaign I posted yesterday and it’s off to the races. I’m also converting this to a daily campaign but my ISL remains in place.


Unfortunately our cocoa campaign found its untimely and ignominious ending today – it had good potential but you can’t win ‘em all. But you can try ;-)

Alright – a few more setups for my intrepid subs below the fold:

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That’s it for today – have fun and keep it frosty.


Draghi Smaaaash!@!!

It’s going to be one long day for the Euro. Several announcements were on the roaster today and everyone was expecting Draghi to announce ABS purchases. But he surprised everyone by just whacking its corridor rates across the board by 10 bps, in the process sending the Deposit Facility rate even further into negative territory, now down at -0.2%.


Weak economy make Draghi aaaangry! Draghi Smaaaasssshhh!!

Here’s what happened (and is still happening):


Ouch, this oughta hurt… unless you somehow short the Euro (snicker)….


And we’re not done yet – we may see a bigger slide later this morning during the announcement of the policy statement and the ensuing press conference.


As you can imagine I’m all smiles down here in the lair – my remaining DX lottery tickets (i.e. 50% of my original position) just exploded higher. I’m tempted to cut the cord but heck – let’s see what happens at 8:30 ;-)


Meanwhile on the equities front we are clearly continuing to gyrate inside a limbo period – see my pertinent 2012 post on market weather for the definition and most importantly for the implications. In short – play the swings if you can.  The rocket is coming for sure but there is no saying which way it’ll take off. We may however risk small R sizes if stopped out when playing the swings at their respective extremes. Meaning – if you are going short and the range extreme based stop is touched then flip with 1/2R and pyramid higher as the position goes your way. Or do nothing – playing limbo periods is not for the faint hearted (and emotionally corruptible).


One measly setup today on the futures side – I’m completely staying out of Forex for the moment. Crude looking like a pretty nice long here – stop below 94.8 and you’re good to go.

This should be a fun day – I’ll check in with you guys later.

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Back To Work Bitches!

I can literally see your collective long faces as you’re dragging your worker bee butts back to the dreaded office or wherever you wound up trading time for Dollars. While you were following your trivial leisure time pursuits the Mole of course was being productive. What I’m hatching up on I cannot tell you (yet) but if it pans out as planned it’ll be rather mind boggling. Stay tuned.


Judging by the event schedule it’s going to be another fun filled week – with the exception of tomorrow.


Here’s the hourly SPX cash – or at least where it left off on Friday. As you can see the trend is getting a bit long in the tooth and either we’re dropping into a correction here or we’ll blow the bears out of the water. But what’s pretty certain here is that we’ll be seeing movement this week.


Ditto on the futures side – I’ve zoomed out a little to give you a better perspective of where we are. The 100-hour Bollinger is contracting and although it’s not at an extreme it’s reasonable to expect a jump in volatility.

FWIW – my NQ and DX position are still in play and have at this point produced a mind boggling amount of profits – one of the campaigns of the year for sure. I am trailing as explained last week and am enjoying the fruit of NOT OVER THINKING A RUNNING POSITION. You know who you are ;-)

Alright, we’ll be having a bit of fun on the commodities side this morning – please step into my lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.


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    1. Introducing Fractal Monger
    2. Scottish Quadruple Witching Alibaba Friday
    3. Friday Morning Briefing
    4. Knocking On Heaven’s Door (Again)
    5. Post FOMC Madness Update
    6. Back With A Vengeance!
    7. A rare but good long setup in equities
    8. This Market Sucks Update
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