Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

On the equities side we’ve been accumulating more and more context and it has now become apparent that the 100-hour SMA on the E-Mini has been respected in the past three sessions and is now acting as a barrier to the upside. On the daily panel we are seeing lower highs and lower lows. Obviously there is little appetite out there for being short which is why I am keeping my current positions in place with a firm (bid) stop at ES 1968.5.

The SPX is a mixed picture – yes, it’s been able to recover the quick spike to the downside but it’s still being lead lower by its own 25-day SMA. And that one is about to meet up with the 100-day SMA sometime today – which means I expect to see resolution of this situation either today or Monday at the latest.

GBP/JPY still pointing lower but thus far equities continue to resist gravity. Obviously we all have seen this play out over and over again over the past few years. We should be keenly aware of the fact that we are trading against the overall trend and the only reason we wagered into short positions in the first place is due the grace of an early entry courtesy of an hourly configuration across three major futures contracts (i.e. ES, NQ, and YM). Despite the bearish tape of the past few days however no significant bearish inflection point has been breached. Which is why I now expect a 65% chance that my short positions will be stopped out. However, due to the thin participation we have seen (holiday tape) any downside could trigger a cascade thus this remains to be low probability / high return campaign.

We have quite a few juicy setups this morning, starting with silver – here we actually have two nice entry opportunities. I would prefer the long side and with a bit of mojo that NLBL at 21.545 may just be breached. Bear in mind that we may see a fake breach first – it wouldn’t be unusual. It may be best to put 1/2R into this first and add another after 21.6 or 21.4.

More goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Today’s event schedule:


And here’s the spike controller for you Forex traders:

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Eyes On The Hourly

The suspicions I shared this morning were confirmed by price later in the session. And as suggested the 100-hour SMA has been holding the fall as of right now. And that is pretty much all you need to know on the equities side as we currently have little context to work with:

Judging by the daily panel that 100-hour better hold as there’s nothing but air lurking beneath. Which is the downside of low volume short squeezes – you better not overstay your welcome. As you know I started to be pretty skeptical over a week ago but thus far magic buying interest continues to show up.

Same picture on the YM – 100-hour holding as of right now.

And here is the NQ – not looking bearish really. This one may have decent odds to hold the line.

Short side momentum is looking tepid as usual – the grizzlies apparently gave up sometime late 2011 – hehe :-)

I don’t see a pressing reason to sell here. However, there are a few bearish signals buzzing in my trading lair – please grab your decoder ring and have a look:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s officially summer now and quite out of season things are heating up across the front. Damn it – shouldn’t you guys be at the beach by now? Here’s the spoos plotting against the GBP/JPY (the carry pair we are tracking), the latter of which is pointing downward. So prepare yourself for the possibility of a little down cast – bring an umbrella. The NQ and TF are near their short term SMAs (e.g. 100 and 25 hour) so look for possible support there should we drop lower.

Otherwise there are no glaring signs tempting me to be short. The VIX:VXO ratio showed an abnormal spike last Friday but remember that it was quadruple witching day and it may just be an aberration. I suggest you keep an eye on the Zero indicator throughout the session to be alerted of any possible shake out attempt. Thus far at least the trend higher on the equities side continues unabated.

Setups – here’s crude which looks like it may gain traction via its 25-hour SMA. It’s a buy above the hourly Net-Line Buy Level at 107.36 – put your stop below the SMA.

Silver is looking rather ripe here as we have a juicy bollinger compression. The idea is a long above the NLBL.

I think the EUR/USD is a good swing trading vehicle right now. Obviously once we see a breach outside the sideways triangle things may accelerate. Be aware that it’s not uncommon to see a false breach first followed by a run in the opposite direction. When in doubt stick with the daily trend.

More goodies below the fold – grab your decoder ring and meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Here’s the daily Forex spread spike controller from Dukascopy. Look at those and compare them with your current broker. As a matter of fact I would appreciate if you would post screen grabs of your own b/a spreads. We need to start collecting a list of favorable brokers.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


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