Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

Busy Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I’m seeing more reasons for measured amounts of paranoia on the equities side. Here’s the GBP/JPY (popular carry trade pair) plotted against the spoos. The former is descending while equities continue to hold strong.

I’m considering short positions but need a reason. Don’t have one yet on the spoos – if you’re long here then simply watch the 25-hour SMA and I think you oughta be okay. Slight BB compression by the way – we may be seeing a quick move here soon.

I’m already short on the TF but it’s experimental with only 1/2R and a tight stop above that NLBL. If it snaps back I’ll be long above the NLBL with a stop below the SMA.

But we’re only getting warmed up – plenty of juicy short term setups this morning, especially on the Forex side. Here’s the USD/JPY which is resembling equities. I would be long above the NLBL and short once it drops below 103.8 (with stop above the NLBL).

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Hey, You First!

You’ve guys have been uncharacteristically quiet (Putin has you spooked?) so let’s focus on the essentials. Equities continue to look steady but cautious given the current headline risk. I think most participants are looking around thinking ‘hey – you first!’. Be this as it may – thus far this morning’s suggestions to ‘fade the paper’ appears to be have paid off. Not that the Mole was jumping head first into longs this morning – not my style and that’s why I’m probably still around after all these years. There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old, bold traders ;-)

We did push to the 1.0 mark on the Zero Lite and that’s respectable – not great but decent. Since the lows it’s also maintained course above the zero mark thus far but we have 90 more minutes to go and I remain cautious.

But let’s take a step back forget about all the nonsense and just look at today’s chart. What do we see? Exactly – a hammer long in an up trend. This may change by the close but if we are closing a hammer today then the high will be our new long trigger. We can talk about the stop as we have a very conveniently placed NLSL 2/3rds in – I would probably put my stop below that instead of today’s low. Also, of course the NLSL would be our short trigger and I would take it if we drop through that – four more sessions to go before it expires.


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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