No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)

I’m sure you all know what I’m talking about. Here we were trying to short this bitch several times in the past two days which on my end resulted in three ignominious stop outs – the last one at 1982. Only 1.5R lost, so it wasn’t a big deal but pretty much what I told you yesterday ‘would happen’ of course ‘did happen’ the next day. There was no reason for my stop to be at 1986 – it was too far in enemy territory. And then equities got Amazoned and here we are fifteen SPX handles lower. So what do we do now?

I tell you what we’re going to do. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. We did everything in our power to exploit an entry opportunity near an inflection point and we simply didn’t get in. That’s life and unless you were on the inside there was no knowing ahead of time that Bezos would slip on the banana peel last night. Don’t beat yourself up – actually better yet, get used to it. Which is why we don’t take large risks on the equities side – or any correlated market for that matter. 1% is the max and if you’re a stock market junkie then always keep a close eye on being as delta neutral as possible (look it up or ask in the comment section).

Now on the ES futures we’re near 1971 right now and there are no major support zones nearby. ES 1966 looks like the next best line in the sand as the 100-hour BB is lingering around down there.

The S&P cash however has been holding its 100-hour SMA and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if it holds.

But the real news of the day is the one that hasn’t been reported. While everyone else is talking about yesterday’s losers I’ve been taking a long position on the Dollar side (yes, I can’t believe I just said that). This is actually a weekly setup I shared with my subs last night and originally we’ve been expecting ole’ bucky to do the same old thing which is fold like a chair near any major LT resistance. Now I can’t promise/expect that this time it’ll be different but those two NLBL breaches do look promising. The fun may begin if we see a pop aboe 80.993 – so make it 81. That’s where the 25-day SMA sits right now and we’ve got plenty of air looming above.

This is the first time I’ll show the turkish lira here and I have to confess that I haven’t traded this one before. So I’ll ease myself into this one with 1/2R. I however do like the double inside day – and I’ll play the outer one on the stop side. I hope that’s clear as I don’t think my drawing is. Long Sunday on either breach of today’s candle (high or low) – but set your stop on the opposite side of the Thursday candle.

More setups waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And now it’s time again to kick back and crack open a bottle of your favorite alcoholic beverage. As you all know in my case that of course would be a bottle of Hefeweizen. A simple Paulaner is one of my favorites – it’s smooth but has that typical Bavarian disciplined but hefty flavor. Simple pleasures…. Well, I hope to see you all next week :-)

Prost!

Campaign Updates

Apparently Scott’s early morning paranoia seems to have been justified as we’ve seen quite a turn around in equities today. Which by the way clearly began ahead of reports of a plane crash near the Russian/Ukrainian border. What a royal mess and sincerely I hope this doesn’t turn into a larger conflict. As you can imagine both Russia and Ukraine will be in the hot-seat until investigators are able to figure out what exactly happened.

But let’s talk about the market. I often point at the GBP/JPY as one of the major carry trade pairs however some traders prefer the watch the EUR/JPY. Well, it’s been pointing down since yesterday and today it turned into a veritable cascade.

Which was mirrored by the GBP/JPY as well. I am keeping my eye on this one but thus far I don’t see any signs of a bounce. Not good for the bulls and it could mean we head lower.

Suffice to say that my long campaign was stopped out near the NLSL on the ES. Here’s the SPX cash which offers possible support near its own NLSL at 1969.56 followed by its 25-day SMA at 1962.39. Prices are currently re-testing the former but if it gives we’ll most likely visit the latter.

A lot more luck on the gold campaign which almost banked us 2R today as it literally exploded higher. That was actually unexpected as we just came out of a big move. I think by now you know the rules – if we close above the 1R mark we’ll keep the campaign open, if we do not then we close out near the EOD.

30-year bond futures also above the 1R profit mark at this point. Same idea here – we need to close the session above the 138’04 mark or it’s time to take profits and end this campaign.

I wanted to offer few more thoughts given the developing situation in the Ukraine. Over the next few days I’m sure we will see a lot of news drivel rife with accusations, rumors, misinformation, human tragedy stories, you name it. I strongly suggest you stick with a strict information diet which means ignoring all of it until we get unequivocal confirmation of the culprit responsible. Suffice to say that it should not affect your trading in any way – whatever price swings would have happened have already happened. Don’t let the drama queens, conspiracy theorists, and tabloids affect your mental equilibrium. As much as I regret what happened to the passengers on this ill-fated flight – this is not an opportunity to satisfy your lust for sensationalism.

Make no mistake – none of the sources spreading rumors or theories about what may have happened today should be trusted as they couldn’t give a rat’s rectum about the truth or the people who so horribly died. Eventually I am certain the truth will be revealed – until then the minimum we owe to the victims and their families is a speck of respect, which means not participating in a sensationalistic media frenzy. Just consider for a second it was the charred remains of one of your loved ones laying there on the ground – that ought to give you a bit of perspective.

I hate rubber-necking and refuse to engage into such egocentric activities – and the same attitude extends to any type of catastrophe – be it man-made or acts of nature. Let’s act like adults and maintain a sense of decorum. My thoughts tonight are with the victims as well as their families.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

After The Burn Comes The Churn

After a big squeeze like yesterday it’s perfectly normal to see a sideways or sluggish session. After all it’s the natural prerogative of any self respecting market maker to instantly manhandle any late comers who weren’t nimble (or smart) enough to accumulate when the getting was good near the prior lows. I hope that doesn’t include any of you guys – after all you were given plenty of warnings right here in our humble lair. Now let’s see where we are on the equities side:

If you went long the spoos then you probably banked one R – it’s time to call it a trade now and exit. I’m not yet tempted to short this thing but I may tomorrow if we produce a shooting star candle tonight. Is that really too much to ask? ;-)

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