Hurdles Ahead

We have come a long way in the past three sessions but the easy part of the journey is now nearing its end. For there are hurdles looming ahead plus I’m seeing some signature signs of short term shenanigans flashing all over the place. Let’s start with where we are right now:

2014-10-21_spoos_update

Quite a climb since that is and there’s probably room for a few more handles. But bear in mind that we are now facing a trifecta of previously tested moving averages – at least per my lens and more often than not they have been observed.

2014-10-21_NQ

On the NQ things are looking quite a bit more bullish – AAPL definitely had a thing or two to do with that. However daily resistance is right ahead and we’re about to smack into it. On the weekly panel we’re however above the 25-week SMA, so that’s pretty positive.

2014-10-21_UVOL

Today’s session looks like it’s been on cruise control – the Zero also suggests that the bots are driving this one higher.

2014-10-21_VXV_VIX

Quarterly volatility has eased off quite a bit along with the VIX and the ratio has been leading the advance in the past few sessions. All good and given that we’ve got more than a week of trading ahead of us it’s not impossible that the bulls may actually pull this off and close the month above the NLSL.

So much for the good news – now let’s talk about some of the concerns:


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Cheers,

Are The Wheels Back On?

Massive reversal today and frankly quite a bit more forceful than I had anticipated. So it seems the Mole got played on this one. I had it right on target regarding the bounce - our P&F pointed at SPX 1920 as its bearish price objective and our monthly NLSL sits at 1930. The SPX dropped right in between those two and our current low stands at 1926 and change. From there a bounce was to be expected but today’s rip higher is rather bullish and we could see continuation higher here.

2014-10-03_PNF_SPX

I posted this chart for my subs in yesterday’s long term update – the area I had highlighted in green was 1960, which is where I expected a low pole reversal warning to kick in. And that’s exactly what happened today – the odds were preeeettty tiny for this to happen. And it certainly took a few market participants by surprise. Fortunately I had no dog in this fight (except for the Thor campaign – see below) and thus escaped this little trap unscathed.

2014-10-03_spoos_update

If you are a bear this is a very ugly chart. Only a drop back below the ES 1960 mark (and better below the SPX 1960 mark) gives the bears another shot at some autumn fun. Not saying it won’t happen but it has to happen soon and in addition the tape must not breach back above the 25-day SMA.

2014-10-03_spoos_weekly

The weekly panel actually had triggered a double sell signal yesterday and a close below it would have locked in a major blemish for the bulls as this would have been our first official medium term sell signal. But both were reversed today and this is a big kick in the nuts for the bears.

2014-10-03_UVOL

As you can see on our NYSE UVOL signal – since the lows this has been one concerted short squeeze. It would be a mistake to cling to yesterday’s picture and not consider that the bulls can drive this higher. Yes, it could be one last spike higher but we get to that…

2014-10-03_VIX_update

More bullish ammunition – the VIX is most likely going to complete a bonafide equities buy signal. And potentially plenty of space below…

2014-10-03_zero

Now to the bearish evidence, which is why I don’t count them out completely just yet. The Zero signal is completely flat and this supports the previous chart in that this drive higher does not enjoy wide participation and could just be a bot driven squeeze which may fizzle out next week.

2014-10-03_spoos_GBPJPY

I am not seeing any confirmation at all on our old Forex correlation pairs – neither on cable…

2014-10-03_spoos_EURJPY

..nor on  the EUR/JPY. This is highly suspicious but the Dollar has been pushing hard today (who-hoo!) and this correlation has weakened somewhat recently.

Bottom line:  The bears are now officially on notice across the board and the onus is now on the bulls to drive this higher. Should the bulls fail to do so then the jig is up and the wheels will come off next week. However, simply holding SPX 1960 for a session or two will send any remaining grizzlies back to the sidelines – old habits die hard and the bulls still enjoy home turf advantage. Until proven otherwise they are effectively back behind the wheel. Inflection point: ES 1960 – below it the bears stand a chance – above it the bulls will probably bury them once again.

2014-10-03_cable

First up apologies for not deploying Thor earlier this week. I kept running into little things to fix – you know how it goes but it will be ready for Sunday night and (barring any major problem) that’s a promise. Here’s the GBP/USD which currently has earned us ~1R.

2014-10-03_ES_Thor

The ES bounce still left us with 1.25R as Thor took 50% off our units off the top near the lows.

2014-10-03_Thor_gold

Gold also in good shape and our stop is now at break-even. Let’s see if we see continuation lower – this is a great start.

One setup below for my intrepid subs – sorry, all I could dig up today but it’s a good one:


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Alright, I think I’ve done enough damage this week – see you guys on Monday morning.

060112Bierhaus1wf

Prost!

Post FOMC Madness Update

Finally this month’s FOMC madness session is behind us. As usual I won’t bore you by regurgitating any pertinent tidbits of the day – if you’re interested in the noise I’m sure you’ll know where to find it. Let’s look at some charts instead – shall we?

2014-09-17_spoos_HT_update

Yesterday I told you guys that such a sharp jump off the lows usually suggests continuation higher. So far that’s exactly the scenario that’s been playing out. If you’ve been taking Scott’s hammer time setup – good job and you may now move your stop to the break/even mark.

2014-09-17_spoos_update

Interesting range on the hourly day – we touched both sides and that now establishes the SMA and the upper BB as respective break out / reversal points. However, as I said – at this point odds support continuation higher. Unless we breach below 1982 the bears are officially toast (again).

2014-09-17_NQ_update

The NQ is now approaching a daily NLBL which is also near the 25-day SMA. IF it manages to breach higher then more upside is pretty much procedural.

2014-09-17_VIX_update

And what really really hits below the belt line is the 18% drop on the VIX since yesterday (and we also touched it earlier today). If you were sitting on puts then your premiums just got flushed down the toilet. If you were long calls then (depending on your strike) you may have actually suffered a loss today. Vega squeeze is a bitch indeed.

2014-09-17_USDJPY_update

Update on the USD/JPY campaign – I got stopped out today and then re-entered just in time for the ride higher. Taking 50% profits now and converting the rest to a daily campaign. Never ever underestimate the potential for extended squeezes (long or short) on the FX or futures side. Never.

BTW, that was one beautiful BB squeeze on the hourly – I hope some of you rats took this one.

2014-09-17_EURNOK_update

The EUR/NOK is still in play but it’s so-so – I’m keeping it in play and my stop will take of the rest if it must.

2014-09-17_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – another short term campaign I posted yesterday and it’s off to the races. I’m also converting this to a daily campaign but my ISL remains in place.

2014-09-17_cocoa_update

Unfortunately our cocoa campaign found its untimely and ignominious ending today – it had good potential but you can’t win ‘em all. But you can try ;-)

Alright – a few more setups for my intrepid subs below the fold:


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That’s it for today – have fun and keep it frosty.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


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