Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

Bounce It!

Equities seem to be hooked onto Juicy J’s recording studio as they’re on their way to winning his much publicized twerking scholarship (cough it back up Ms. Holmes!). Now we’re back at the bottom of ‘ze zone’ and whether we’re bouncing back up now is of course the big question as there’s not too much in terms of technical context.

As a matter of fact all we really have right now is our trusted volume profile chart on the spoos:

As usual a spike into the no fly zone after which point the bids dried up quickly. Basically we’ve now built our house of pain with the floor being near 1830 and the roof somewhere around 1880 – 50 handles of market maker bliss.

If you haven’t lost your appetite for equities then that IP candle on the NQ may look tasty. Triggers on the chart – not a bad range and I may throw 1/2R on it.

I tried to get in early this morning but got whipsawed out. That hourly NLBL would have been a great catch per our plan but it didn’t work out for me.

Gold update – I actually realized that I committed an operator error. Technically I should have closed out on Friday as it had touched 1R and then pulled back. Well, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than to be good – I’m staying in it and will move my stop to 1306 – 1R locked in.

NG – almost touched the 1R mark today and here we also will keep her running.

Wheat – a setup this morning which I also tried to get in but then got stopped out. Afterward I was heading to the gym and I missed the spike higher. BUT this is a textbook example of an inverse H&S as that little head fake is very very typical. The perfect entry IMO would have been that little IP near today’s bottom. If you caught it then call yourself one lucky bastard (probably not – if so speak up and reel in your glory). Anyway, good chart – keep it around as a great example of H&S formations. They are not easy to trade despite their popularity.

AUD/USD update – 1.5R in one day – that’s how we like it. Move your stop to 0.9339 – you’ve locked in one R.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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