Busy Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I’m seeing more reasons for measured amounts of paranoia on the equities side. Here’s the GBP/JPY (popular carry trade pair) plotted against the spoos. The former is descending while equities continue to hold strong.

I’m considering short positions but need a reason. Don’t have one yet on the spoos – if you’re long here then simply watch the 25-hour SMA and I think you oughta be okay. Slight BB compression by the way – we may be seeing a quick move here soon.

I’m already short on the TF but it’s experimental with only 1/2R and a tight stop above that NLBL. If it snaps back I’ll be long above the NLBL with a stop below the SMA.

But we’re only getting warmed up – plenty of juicy short term setups this morning, especially on the Forex side. Here’s the USD/JPY which is resembling equities. I would be long above the NLBL and short once it drops below 103.8 (with stop above the NLBL).

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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Cheers,

Don’t Burn In The Sideways Churn

Not surprisingly we’re getting a sideways churn day after yesterday’s short squeeze toward 1880. The Zero has been rangebound and we’ve been bouncing between +/- 0.5 all day. However things apparently are coming into alignment as we’ve got a plethora of setups popping out of the woodwork. Let’s get to it!

Here’s today’s Zero chart – as you can see it’s not been a fun session. But the patient trader may be rewarded in the end:

That’s a rather tiny inside day candle – as a matter of fact I suggest that you widen your stop by a handle or so for extra whipsaw protection.

If you prefer the Dow futures then here are the triggers for that as well. Identical setup.

USD/JPY – it’s ambitious alright but thus far it’s not managed to stay above that NLBL. But we have three more sessions until it expires and if it claws its way above then you know what to do.

Gold – Double inside day and NR4. But we also have a picturesque Retest Variation Sell on the roster – each side should be fun.

We’re just getting warmed up folks – many more goodies await below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

 

Always Fade The Paper

Friend of the blog Ivan Krastins was slumming it again in our comment section lately, and although sometimes cryptic in nature we always appreciate his contributions. As you may recall our CrazyIvan strategy was named in homage of the candle pattern systems he developed over the past decades. Now Ivan’s general sentiment on the Monday’s shake out was simple and straight forward as usual: ‘Fade the paper‘.

Yes, yes – nothing new to see here – you’ve all heard that one before, right? Yes, but unlike us silly retail muppets, who now have access to a myriad of trading books, financial blogs, and sophisticated tools online, it was a lesson he and his peers learned the hard way. You know back in the days down in the mirky depths of the futures pits. Things often got pretty ugly and we retail chumps probably would have lasted less than a day, if that.

Well, those times are long gone and he’s since migrated to trading on a beach on the lovely South Pacific island of Vanuatu. I’m not kidding by the way – he’s literally placing trades right now via some 256kb DSL line while an army of crabs is encroaching on his straw hut and the sun is setting behind the ocean. Probably still charting on paper and such. A relic of the past perhaps but what’s important is that he keeps winning. Sophisticated tools and charts don’t make you a good trader – it’s that thing between your ears and perhaps some body parts further South.

Of course what has NOT changed is that of human nature – and as such the game remains the same. In yesterday’s morning briefing I encouraged you to ignore the headlines and instead focus on our charts. Now let’s see how that worked out for us:

Not so shabby actually – you may recall our Hammer Long from last night. Although things jumped earlier today you should have had your entry set at 1849.5 and gotten filled anywhere between 1850 and 1851 (depending on how lousy your broker is). And if you didn’t get your limit filled there you would have had another chance near 1852.5 or 1853 an hour later. Either way we are up about an R and I just got stopped out as I set it at 1861. That’s about 0.7 real R given my fill at 1852.5.

Short term I’m interested in the USD/JPY here – I want to be long above 101.9 but until that happens I’m in a short position with a stop at my long trigger.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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