Setup Bonanza!

Interesting turn of events this morning – although my growing cautiousness concerning the equities (long) side has thus far paid off I’m not yet convinced that we’re heading into another correction. Be this as it may, I did get positioned nicely courtesy of the TF this morning and I intend to hold this position for now or until stopped out at break/even:

Although there was a quick fake out toward the NLBL my stop was well placed and thus far I’ve racked up almost two R. Which is nice but not really what I’m interested in – I’m turning this into a lottery ticket to the downside given what I’m seeing on the short term momo side:

VIX:VXO (which I showed to the subs yesterday) continues to point downward. Again, it could be a fluke or a bear trap but I already earned my entry and I’m sitting pretty right now.

Out of fairness I should however show you guys the Zero Lite which is rather flat today. So not much participation on the downside here and I give this 40% chance to continue lower. I don’t see a long entry here right now either unfortunately – once I do I’ll let you guys know.

Update on the Dollar entry which I hope some of you guys grabbed yesterday. The right panel shows us at the 2R threshold and that means we are either moving our stop up if we close above it or close our position if we close below it. That is via the CrazyIvan campaign rules. If I would employ Heisenberg then I would have taken partial profits a bit above 1R and moved my stop to b/e. So I leave this in your capable hands – it’s possible that the Dollar is going to enjoy a run higher. But heck – it’s the Dollar right? So I’ll stick with CI rules on this one ;-)

So many awesome setups today – here’s crude gracing us with a very interesting configuration I tried to explain on the chart. Could swing either way and we are near the $100 mark – will definitely take whatever trigger this throws at me.

And I cannot believe I’m actually giving this one away for free as it’s my favorite. I have already gone long via this morning’s short term entry near 104. My stop is at today’s lows and all that ties very nicely into the IP and RTV-L that any of you leeches may grab later tonight. Absolutely love this setup and I think it’s coiled up and ready to snap.

More goodies below the fold – it’s a veritable futures bonanza today – seems Hoss is getting all excited. Please grab your secret decoder rings and join me in my freshly painted spring lair:


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Cheers,

Dude Where’s My Moto?

As some of you already know I started the day dealing with a family emergency but it didn’t stop there. Just when I thought that I had a lid on things and got ready to hit the gym for some much needed stress relieve I realized that someone had grifted my moto overnight. You should have seen my face as I was standing there with my helmet in my hand and cursing like a sailor with turrets. I thought it couldn’t get much worse but somehow this day continued to prove me wrong. Well, I’ll spare you the ugly details – nobody likes a cry baby.

Although the Spanish cops don’t have the notoriety of the LAPD I have a feeling they won’t have any problems identifying the ole’ Mole mobile – it has some rather distinguishing features. Well, as the universe seems to have it out for me today I better treat carefully and keep a low profile. So forgive me if I run through today’s charts quickly so that I can curl up somewhere and lick my psychological wounds ;-)

Quick update on CAD/CHF which triggered today. We are about 0.7R in and nothing really happens until we touch 0.8058’1. If we close above it we’ll advance our stop to the 1R mark – if we push above it and closer below it we will exit EOD.

Equities are still on the run and thus far the 25-hour has been holding like a champ. There’s the 100-day BB approaching above and it may mean soft resistance.

The volume profile is running thin but that doesn’t mean that some headline event tomorrow can’t pop it higher. You know how the cookie crumbles.

Possible Failed Shooting Star setup on the NQ starting tonight. I’m not holding my breath but it’s the only ticket on the equities side right now.

I do however think that the bulls may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves here, so I recommend caution on the long side. For example here is the NYSE advancing/declining ratio which is dropping against a rising SPX.

But I got more where that came from – please join me in the lair:


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Alright, that’s all I got for today – time to release the hounds!

Cheers,

Clouds On The Horizon

We’ve enjoyed good entries in the past few days and I do not feel compelled to expose myself any further unless we reach various targets on the equities and Forex front. So let’s catch up with the equity side and then take a more comprehensive look on what’s happening over in treasuries.

On the surface equities seem to be continuing their push higher and the next hurdle ahead is the weekly NLBL at 1694.5. But if you pop open the hood and take a look below then you’ll come across a few caveats.

Yesterday’s VIX divergence was one of them and today’s participation as shown by the Zero Lite shows us minimal activity.

I also don’t much like the UVOL/DVOL ratio – as you can see as of this writing both are almost in sync despite higher prices.

Bottom Line: I don’t have a reason to pull long positions at this point but I am not interested in any further exposure right now. We are pushing higher but I’m not seeing the invariable squeeze that usually has presented itself after a breach above a major inflection point. Caveat emptor.

So let’s talk treasuries – let’s start with the bonds. It’s been a year of pain as evidenced by a sea of red on the monthly chart. We are now approaching a possible support line near 128’00 – a nice round number. I would be watching for signs of a bounce there but I’m sure many others are as well and then there’s this little tidbit:

Here’s the same monthly panel showing the 10-year note and as you can see that support line was abandoned earlier this month. The next possible support zone is near 119’00 at the 100-month SMA, and I don’t even have any recent evidence that it’ll hold there.

As you may be aware Russia and China have recently been accelerated their dumping of U.S. treasuries after Bernanke’s taper talk. I don’t need to elaborate on the possible implications given a continuation of that trend. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17 and 18 and chairman Bernanke is expected to announce whether or not he’ll move forward with tapering. Coincidentally the EU¬†inflation expectation numbers and U.S. CPI come out the same day as at 8:30 AM so I expect some fireworks on the treasury side that day.

Most of you probably don’t engage in active trading of treasuries or the futures. However there are various pertinent measures that have given me pause regarding the long term viability of a continued push higher on the equities front. Let’s review:


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Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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