Post FOMC Madness Update

Finally this month’s FOMC madness session is behind us. As usual I won’t bore you by regurgitating any pertinent tidbits of the day – if you’re interested in the noise I’m sure you’ll know where to find it. Let’s look at some charts instead – shall we?

2014-09-17_spoos_HT_update

Yesterday I told you guys that such a sharp jump off the lows usually suggests continuation higher. So far that’s exactly the scenario that’s been playing out. If you’ve been taking Scott’s hammer time setup – good job and you may now move your stop to the break/even mark.

2014-09-17_spoos_update

Interesting range on the hourly day – we touched both sides and that now establishes the SMA and the upper BB as respective break out / reversal points. However, as I said – at this point odds support continuation higher. Unless we breach below 1982 the bears are officially toast (again).

2014-09-17_NQ_update

The NQ is now approaching a daily NLBL which is also near the 25-day SMA. IF it manages to breach higher then more upside is pretty much procedural.

2014-09-17_VIX_update

And what really really hits below the belt line is the 18% drop on the VIX since yesterday (and we also touched it earlier today). If you were sitting on puts then your premiums just got flushed down the toilet. If you were long calls then (depending on your strike) you may have actually suffered a loss today. Vega squeeze is a bitch indeed.

2014-09-17_USDJPY_update

Update on the USD/JPY campaign – I got stopped out today and then re-entered just in time for the ride higher. Taking 50% profits now and converting the rest to a daily campaign. Never ever underestimate the potential for extended squeezes (long or short) on the FX or futures side. Never.

BTW, that was one beautiful BB squeeze on the hourly – I hope some of you rats took this one.

2014-09-17_EURNOK_update

The EUR/NOK is still in play but it’s so-so – I’m keeping it in play and my stop will take of the rest if it must.

2014-09-17_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – another short term campaign I posted yesterday and it’s off to the races. I’m also converting this to a daily campaign but my ISL remains in place.

2014-09-17_cocoa_update

Unfortunately our cocoa campaign found its untimely and ignominious ending today – it had good potential but you can’t win ‘em all. But you can try ;-)

Alright – a few more setups for my intrepid subs below the fold:


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That’s it for today – have fun and keep it frosty.

Cheers,

The Long Con

As you can imagine I wanted to wait out Draghi’s announcement before putting up a post but that didn’t leave me with much time before the bell. So here we go in no particular order:

2014-09-11_spoos_update

Equities still in whipsaw mode but I’m actually starting to give the bears more credence here. Neither side has been able to make much of a dent but let’s not forget that 1) the onus is on the bulls to continue the trend and 2) there are really no bears left. In a late bull trend downside corrections are usually generated by a lack of bulls as opposed to being caused by strong selling pressure. Which is why we have seen the tape plot extended tops followed by a quick fall to the next support zone.

Bottom line: The bulls need to push this turd back above 1997 – if we close the week below it tomorrow then there may be a price to be paid next week.

2014-09-11_ZN_update

Bonds are on the way now – my new target area is 123’295ish. Glad I flipped that initial long to a short after being stopped out. A lack of directional bias does have its rewards ;-)

2014-09-11_cotton_update

Cotton is accelerating higher and I’m moving my stop to the 2R mark. Very happy camper because I think we may have a runner here. Current target near 76 – if we touch that I may just be able to afford a turkey for Christmas!

2014-09-11_cocoa_update

The cocoa campaign also back on track and we may have another runner here as well. Target – well, who cares – there’s nothing but air below. I have to say – the fun has been in futures lately!

2014-09-11_coffee_update

Coffee is looking great today – inside day candle right on top of a very tested 100-day SMA. I’m taking either breach it’ll throw my way tomorrow/tonight.

2014-09-11_EURUSD_update

EUR/USD – may attempt a bottom here (much to my chagrin of course) – time to hedge, triggers on the chart.

2014-09-11_dollar_update

And I promise I won’t boast about my DX campaign (snicker) – but for the rest of you guys here may be a chance to play a shake out. Double inside day – usually decent odds on that as velocity seems to be slowing up here. A breach in either direction is a good play. I’ll put my stop at today’s lows – if stopped out I’ll be short with a stop near yesterday’s highs.  If we get a double whammy (stop out both ways) I’ll continue higher with my current position size.

FWIW - the long con across various futures contracts seems to be the play of the year. This is easy money folks with beautiful prime rib entries and strongly trending tape. If you keep staring at equities all day you may not just go blind but also miss out on a lot of fun. And that – my dear steel rats – would be unforgivable. So get with the program!

 

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Cheers,

Sitting Pretty

I’m glad I stayed out of that equities campaign as it continues to test everyone’s patience. If you’re short since yesterday then you may be wondering if this is merely one last stab higher before the big drop. Well, maybe – I don’t have a dog in this fight which affords me a reasonable sense of objectivity. And the way it’s looking right now this beast could swing either way. But as I pointed out yesterday, terrible conditions with limited downside potential. But hey if you must dabble – be my guest – here are a few pertinent perspectives:

2014-09-10_spoos_profile

Rather interestingly we saw a bounce right at the end of a tiny volume hole. Another tick or two below and the bears would have enjoyed a much needed injection of participation. But for some reason the spoos touched 1980 and jumped right back into the dreaded whipsaw zone. Seemed utterly avoidable given the recent lack of participation, thus it begs the question as to whether this may be a bull trap. IF it really is then we need to turn back lower sharply before the end of the session – the more time we spend up here the worse for the much battered grizzlies.

2014-09-10_SPX_hourly

The hourly SPX shows us a touch of the lower 100-hour Bollinger. And boy – is that one compressed to the max right now – we’re talking less than 20 handles top to bottom. So something’s got to give here soon and most likely it will. Now, if our Sorgenkind indeed resolves lower then we may actually drop all the way to that 100-day SMA near 1940.

Here are a few short term momo charts – subs only. The free portion of this post continues further below:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Alright – I’ve done my duty to your equities addicts – now to the interesting part ;-)

2014-09-10_EURCAD_update

Update on our EUR/CAD campaign – well, it dropped back to whence it came. Fortunately we enjoyed a very fortunate early entry and thus can afford to sit out a possible retest of the 100-week SMA. Nothing to do here right now.

2014-09-10_cotton_update

Cotton however has fared rather well and we almost touched 3R today. Which means we’re moving our stop to the 2R mark. This may actually work out fine as it gives us a bit room for a possible shake out day or two. IF this one manages to breach the upper 25-day BB it may just turn into a runner. So I personally will only use 50% of my stop at the 2R mark – the remainder goes to the 1R mark.  The long term potential here justifies a bit of campaign management discretion. This approach has served us well over the past few weeks.

2014-09-10_cocoa_update

Cocoa – and it’s off to the races! Well, we hope…. excellent entry with minimal risk yesterday. This is why I love those last kiss goodbye entries. So sweet when they actually trigger. Nothing to do here either – it’s do or die time – we have done our part.

Cheers,





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