I came across a very interesting article this morning which argues that the proliferation of quant trading in combination with QE and a flattening yield curve over the past decade has largely favored momentum stocks to the detriment of value stocks.
Gauging market momentum is as much art as a science in that you’ll probably always find charts that satisfy a particular directional bias. The trick lies in remaining as objective as humanly possible and to collect evidence from a diversity of sources. As many traders are starting to return from their summer vacations I thought it a good idea to get everyone a jump start on what’s going on.
As the old saying goes: Every cloud has a silver lining. And in the case of August that most definitely would be week #34 which isn’t just a positive week but just so happens to be the fourth most bullish week of the year. Unfortunately however event risk is rather significant as the Fed is holding its annual symposium at Jackson Hole.
We’re past the half-month mark and since the current gyrations aren’t exactly conducive to anything outside of playing the swings I thought it would be a good idea to go over our momentum charts. What I found is rather worrisome on a medium to long term basis, albeit there is grounds for optimism more short term.