Here I am – stuck in our vacation rental thanks to a nationwide quarantine taking effect this morning – and honestly I could not be happier. Although I have never been a perma-bear the past decade of eternal effervescence had become the bane of my existence. Living in Valencia I increasingly noticed it everywhere around me as unbridled mass tourism is a prime litmus test for an economic bubble that’s just waiting to be pricked. Beyond mere ‘moral hazard’ the grand financial experiment of the 21st century wrought cultural and social implications that ended up destroying families and inter-personal relationships on a mass scale, and in the process pitted [...]
I came across a very interesting article this morning which argues that the proliferation of quant trading in combination with QE and a flattening yield curve over the past decade has largely favored momentum stocks to the detriment of value stocks.
Gauging market momentum is as much art as a science in that you’ll probably always find charts that satisfy a particular directional bias. The trick lies in remaining as objective as humanly possible and to collect evidence from a diversity of sources. As many traders are starting to return from their summer vacations I thought it a good idea to get everyone a jump start on what’s going on.
As the old saying goes: Every cloud has a silver lining. And in the case of August that most definitely would be week #34 which isn’t just a positive week but just so happens to be the fourth most bullish week of the year. Unfortunately however event risk is rather significant as the Fed is holding its annual symposium at Jackson Hole.