I took a glance at a long term VIX chart this morning and realized that it had only dropped below its 11 mark once since January of 2018, and then didn’t remain there for more than a day. Admittedly the past 18 months have been turbulent for equities, which is evidenced by the fact that the SPX is currently trading merely 100 handles above the high painted on January 27th, 2018.
Hello denizens of Evil Speculator! Just as Mole is off to visit his indigenous peoples of Austria, I’m back from a week of honoring my Fucks Given Reduction (FGR) process in the California desert at Lightning In A Bottle (LIB). Fresh and ready to go deep into some stuff you can actually use to trade with. As a bonus to my Cali trip, I got to spend a time in Venice with a man who goes by the moniker The Trip Advisor, who is behind-the-scene responsible for the biggest hit Post Malone has.
It’s very tempting to start looking for long entry opportunities after a series of nasty sell off. Clearly there couldn’t possibly be more selling around the corner after an entire month of upside progress has been wiped out in a matter of days, right? WRONG. Gauging downside price action by comparing it with upside price action is a flawed perspective that has cost the trading accounts of a many traders.
Ever heard someone say ‘I hate to be right but [fill in lucky prediction of your choice]. Well that’s a lie – I of course love to be right, especially when it comes to avoiding nasty market traps. Plus nothing fills my heart with more joy than to pick over hapless disoriented prey after a massive Monday morning opening gap.