I’d wager that the majority of retail traders chose to listen to the onslaught of bearish siren calls peddled in the MSM over the past two months, once again causing them to miss out on yet another massive push to the upside As we’ve now advanced all the way into new all time highs you may wonder if at least an obligatory shake out may be in sight. Let’s see what my market momentum charts have to say about it.
We’ve reached the end of September plus it’s a Monday, so let’s talk some stats. First up big props to Rob Hanna over at QuantifiableEdges whose SPX stats properly pinned week #39 with high odds of closing in the red – which it did. My own most humble SPY stats did back up his view as well but let’s give credit where credit is due. Okay, so what does have week #40 in store for us?
By all definitions the past two years have been pretty challenging to many retail traders and not surprisingly the exhaustion I sense in the comment section is palpable. A lot of what has transpired can be attributed to a marked increase in realized volatility which over time has contributed to a now permanently elevated baseline in implied volatility.
Volatility is a tough beast to tame, despite the general consensus among finance geeks and quant traders that it’s a lot easier to predict than signed returns. GARCH is your friend but it gives us an unsigned return – a range of 20 handles means that the market could as easily run up 20 as it could drop by 20. So what do we do?