In part 2 of this series I am going to dumb down a key aspect of bear markets that has largely remained unknown to the vast majority of retail traders. It is important to embrace the fact that while the gray unwashed masses focus solely on the daily gyrations of the VIX professional traders instead religiously follow an exotic construct called the Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS).
When it comes to financial news in particular, can you remember reading a single bullish headline over the past week? Or perhaps over the past month? The past year? Past decade? Me neither. Instead it’s been doom & gloom every step on the way up from SPX 667 back in 2008 to now over 3300 eleven and some years later. If nothing else the political culture war triggered by the election of Donald J. Trump has only served to exacerbate a mainstream media landscape addicted to that next juicy bit of angst inciting clickbait.
The teens are over and done with and we’re now heading straight into the roaring twenties. I know it’s supposed to be hip to be all cynical and black pilled these days; but let me be among the first to buck this nauseating trend and predict that it’s going to be an awesome decade for anyone serious about being successful – and most importantly the very few willing to put in the work.
It’s EOY rally season and apparently everyone has been at their best behavior this year as Santa already has delivered in spades. At this point however what I care more about is what lies ahead for us, and given a technical vacuum at all time highs it may be worthwhile to take a look at implied volatility for clues.