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June 8, 2017

Fooled By Randomness

It is Mario Draghi’s turn to torment market participants this morning, which means a market overview will have to wait until the wave of volatility has washed over us and hopefully left some of our open campaigns intact. In the interim I decided to channel my inner Nicholas Taleb and ruin your collective day by singlehandedly smashing what you hold most dear as traders, i.e. your perspective on how markets function and your ability to anticipate what may come next. And if you think I am joking then you are most likely doubly mistaken. Read on at your own peril:

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August 8, 2012

Fractal Alert!

Gold is keeping us in suspense as it continues its own 100-day SMA sprint – recently added as an Olympic discipline. I still maintain that we’ll may need the help of Usain Bolt here to keep up with this thing once it picks a direction. Always remember the old adage ‘the bus moves fastest once everyone got off’.

Right before the NYSE opened this morning I sent out an email to my subs advising them to keep an eye on this thing. We did get a quick dip below the Maginot line but it has since recovered. Unfortunately I think it’ll keep playing with us until the big day – which may be tomorrow or in a week or two from now. My general [...]

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February 19, 2012

Maginot Line

As I’m watching the spoos here on Sunday night I am seeing an nice setup which I would like to pass on to you guys before I move on to the more long term stuff:

It’s a long weekend and so this may have changed considerably by the time you catch up with this post, but as long as we remain where we are the spoos may be worth a short trade. Has the Mole completely lost his mind? Indubitably, but that’s a different matter altogether – so let me explain the setup:

I mentioned the SPX equivalent of 1370.25 on the prior chart, which of course accounts for fair value – in other words the SPX usually trades at a premium (PREM) in [...]

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August 18, 2011

Take A Deep Breadth

I had to write myself a little fix for my NYSE breadth chart as at least the D/A panel promised to remain pretty much unusable after last Friday’s signal spike. Let me show you what I’m talking about:

There you have it – a major outlier which completely flattens everything preceding it. As 50+ signals are obviously a rare exception I resorted to truncating any spikes after 22 and painting the real value above, as such:

So much better, isn’t it? Now we have a functioning breadth chart again – I think that’s a rather simple but elegant solution. Anyway, the real reason for this after market post is the A/D panel which [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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