Post FOMC Madness Update

Finally this month’s FOMC madness session is behind us. As usual I won’t bore you by regurgitating any pertinent tidbits of the day – if you’re interested in the noise I’m sure you’ll know where to find it. Let’s look at some charts instead – shall we?

2014-09-17_spoos_HT_update

Yesterday I told you guys that such a sharp jump off the lows usually suggests continuation higher. So far that’s exactly the scenario that’s been playing out. If you’ve been taking Scott’s hammer time setup – good job and you may now move your stop to the break/even mark.

2014-09-17_spoos_update

Interesting range on the hourly day – we touched both sides and that now establishes the SMA and the upper BB as respective break out / reversal points. However, as I said – at this point odds support continuation higher. Unless we breach below 1982 the bears are officially toast (again).

2014-09-17_NQ_update

The NQ is now approaching a daily NLBL which is also near the 25-day SMA. IF it manages to breach higher then more upside is pretty much procedural.

2014-09-17_VIX_update

And what really really hits below the belt line is the 18% drop on the VIX since yesterday (and we also touched it earlier today). If you were sitting on puts then your premiums just got flushed down the toilet. If you were long calls then (depending on your strike) you may have actually suffered a loss today. Vega squeeze is a bitch indeed.

2014-09-17_USDJPY_update

Update on the USD/JPY campaign – I got stopped out today and then re-entered just in time for the ride higher. Taking 50% profits now and converting the rest to a daily campaign. Never ever underestimate the potential for extended squeezes (long or short) on the FX or futures side. Never.

BTW, that was one beautiful BB squeeze on the hourly – I hope some of you rats took this one.

2014-09-17_EURNOK_update

The EUR/NOK is still in play but it’s so-so – I’m keeping it in play and my stop will take of the rest if it must.

2014-09-17_EURJPY_update

EUR/JPY – another short term campaign I posted yesterday and it’s off to the races. I’m also converting this to a daily campaign but my ISL remains in place.

2014-09-17_cocoa_update

Unfortunately our cocoa campaign found its untimely and ignominious ending today – it had good potential but you can’t win ‘em all. But you can try ;-)

Alright – a few more setups for my intrepid subs below the fold:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today – have fun and keep it frosty.

Cheers,

Back With A Vengeance!

I literally just came through the door and dropped my suitcases and here I am already posting setups. That’s right – the Mole is back with a vengeance! Not that you ratlings would actually deserve such dedication – judging by the comment section you didn’t miss me very much! And quite frankly – neither did I as I was too busy hunting hapless aqueous prey.

mahi-mahi

I basically spent the past two days on a boat enjoying the post-season tranquility of the Mediterranean in September. Here’s a snap-shot of the Mahi-Mahi we managed to pull out of the ocean yesterday evening. As you can see the poor guy wasn’t very happy about the whole affair – and with reason as he’s being turned into sushi tonight.

mole_javea

Here’s the Mole posing whilst bathing his luxury body in the late afternoon sunlight. Sorry ladies – I’m already hitched. But if you’re over 85 and wealthy feel free to include me in your will.

sunset_javea

Amazing atmosphere as the sun was just about to set – the ocean was flat as a lake and we went snorkeling until sunset. Good times!

2014-09-16_spoos_update

And now it’s back to work. On the equities front I don’t have much to add to what I said before I left. We now touched our preliminary target of 1970 and that hammer candle has to hold or we’ll visit the 100-day near 1940. So I think Scott’s 2.0 BB/hammer setup is worth considering – but otherwise not much additional technical context.

2014-09-16_EURJPY_setup

But there are a ton of great setups to be had this morning – check out that beautiful 25-BB compression on the EUR/JPY – may be a last kiss goodbye situation. I’m long here with a stop right below the 100-hour.

2014-09-16_gold_update

Gold – it’s speculative but I’m trying a 1/4 long here near the 25-hour – stop below 1234 – no, I didn’t just make that up ;-)

A ton more before the fold – it seems that we’re at inflection points across the board. I’m glad I’m back as it’s time to get busy!


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Finally, many thanks to Scott ‘The Convict’ Philips for filling in yesterday – much obliged as always. Now have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

A rare but good long setup in equities

If you recall yesterday’s post I said that even though the odds favored another thrust down, we didn’t have betting odds to the downside and would likely paint a new long setup. That has come to pass, and I’d like to introduce you to a concept that you could build a whole system around.

In an uptrend with a rising lower bollinger, any bar that touches the lower bollinger and closes above it is a strong buy.

Here we have that, but also we have supporting evidence. The preceding run up was so strong that it is unlikely the bulls just give up. The downmove over the last 8 trading days has been choppy and weak, painting a hammer candle today. That hammer candle indicates rejection of the lows.

The setup is as follows. Get long on a break of the daily highs ES Z4 1979.25 with a stop at the daily lows 1968 for a risk of $562.50 per contract. This is not a hold forever type of trade, I would definitely be banking some profit at either the upper bollinger or the old highs.

I’m taking this one myself.

Scott Phillips





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Scottish Quadruple Witching Alibaba Friday
    2. Friday Morning Briefing
    3. Knocking On Heaven’s Door (Again)
    4. Post FOMC Madness Update
    5. Back With A Vengeance!
    6. A rare but good long setup in equities
    7. This Market Sucks Update
    8. The Other Shoe Just Dropped
    9. The Long Con
    10. Sitting Pretty



  4. links


  5. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick