On Sunday night I warned you that after hours fuckery was in play and you should be cautious to the downside. Hope you heeded the warning. Yesterday we looked certain to fall off the plate and post a very bearish daily candle, but a masterful bit of intervention before the close pushed us straight off the lows. What we have now is a situation where the shorts are basically ALL IN, and the bulls are defending a last line in the sand. There is enough bullish evidence here that the odds favor the bulls mounting a last stand of sorts here. We have a potential bullish setup, triggered on break of the highs. The problem with this setup is that it is getting long into resistance. Personally I don’t think this one has the risk/reward basis for an intelligent trade, but if you insist on taking it perhaps monitoring market internals if it rises and trying to time an exit would be a respectable strategy. In any case you should be overly aggressive about banking profits.
This is a tough one to take. The weekly chart is uber bearish and you would be getting long into resistance. Still it does have squeeze potential.
The 1min chart shows the anatomy of the end of day bounce was not natural.
The Spoos just opened for the week, we gapped down and filled immediately. Buying pressure is a little stronger than I would expect here and we are at high volatility readings on multiple timeframes (15m 60, 240, daily). At high volatility times counter trend trades are worth taking. I suspect after hours fuckery in play, be cautious to the downside here. The two setups I like for today are NZDUSD and AUDCAD.
I’m filling in for Mole while he goes and attacks Welshmen this weekend. Here is the situation. We have a breach of technical support and severe technical damage has been done to the bullish case.
I hope you took or at least took notice of the Retest Variation Sell setup yesterday, you should be short, with a stop above the high of the candle 2 days ago.
In my opinion you are chasing the market if you get short here, but the odds favor lower prices ahead
Looking at the bigger picture we can see that the odds overwhelmingly favor a correction of 1-2 months. You should not be long here. The market leaders particularly took it right in the ass, which is a very bearish sign.
How should you play this today? If you aren’t positioned you should stand aside. The bulls will be trying to put up a last stand here, there is no favorable risk reward opportunity for today. Currency markets look like shit as well.
You heard it here first. A coin flip. Don’t trade. If you hold longs still, I advise exiting on a bounce.