I’m a bit of a history buff and beside general curiosity it’s for a very pragmatic reason. Looking back in time teaches you a lot more about human nature and the way the world works than the most erudite of academics or philosophers. The quote ‘never let a good crisis go to waste’ has recently been attributed to Rom Emmanuel but Winston Churchill is claimed of having used it and most likely he himself picked it up somewhere during his long and eventful life.
With equities not just reaching but far exceeding stratospheric levels the question of how much longer this can be sustained obviously comes to mind. In fact it’s the prevailing sentiment in light of a face ripping rally that is unparalleled in financial history. I have repeatedly pointed out the obvious disconnect between the stock market and what has transpired across Main Street. Not just all over the United States but also in the rest of the Western hemisphere, which continues to be on the receiving end of various well intended policy decisions.
In my Monday post we took a snapshot of the short to medium term risk perception courtesy of the VX futures term structure and compared it with the one we saw in November. What we discovered was that implied volatility (and thus risk perception) has steadily dropped lower but that the steep contango had remained intact. Thus my suggesting a chronic manic depressive marketplace, which I find rather appropriate given that equities are not just trading at all time highs but are now pushing into ever loftier heights every single session.
Over the past decade of Fed fueled monetary extravaganza a ramp and camp formation has become the norm rather than the rare exception. The Monday short squeeze that officially cemented a new S&P milestone above the $4k mark has pushed us to new stratospheric valuations, and it stands in stark contrast to the worldwide economic situation in which we currently find ourselves. Not to mention the one we are heading straight into. Let me assure you that a global silicon shortage affecting chip production across a wide swath of industries is merely the tip of the iceberg. There’s a lot more fun to come.
The Emotional Purgatory Of Cognitive Biases – Part 1
