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March 15, 2018


It is axiomatic that surprise actions cause the biggest moves.

So it’s no surprise at all that when everybody expects support to hold, and it doesn’t… hilarity ensues.

That really looks like a completed retest of the lows that should kick off at least a test of the old highs.

Aww sheet… that’s gonna leave a mark

So now we really are retesting the lows. Except THIS time, notice the volume is rising to the downside. Odds now favour breaking support again.

But that’s not the whole story, BTC is a heavily manipulated market, and a concerted effort by the Tether/Whales crew could jump in and [...]

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March 14, 2018

Confessions Of A Teutonic Beach Dweller

The featured image above shows the view we found upon our arrival mid last week, but in the interim cloudy weather has moved in turning the horizon into one giant white reflector. Quite frankly I’m actually not a big fan of neither the beach nor the ocean. I just don’t get the point of aging your skin with damaging UV levels whilst constantly picking sand out of every orifice. And having been raised in the Austrian highlands I’ll take an alpine excursion over a day at the beach any day. Before you get your hopes up – all incriminating photos of me wearing Lederhosen as a young child have long been destroyed.

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March 12, 2018

How I learned to stop hating and love the Crypto

Ask… and ye shall receive.

Let’s talk about Cryptos. I know for a fact most of you hate these bastard offspring. And I used to as well… until I learned to stop hating and love crypto.

I was biased against them because I was sick of hearing about idiots making millions who don’t actually know how to trade.

But I’m sure you couldn’t possibly understand 😉

Systems for crypto’s have some unique challenges.

In no particular order

The exchanges all have different data There isn’t enough data for a statistically significant backtest Some of the exchanges are crooked as a 3 dollar bill The [...]
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March 7, 2018

No Respect

Scott Phillips here, taking over from Mole so he can pretend to step away from his computer for a few days (he won’t but it’s a nice thought)

Today I’d like to introduce you to the Rodney Dangerfield of market types.

Let’s look at the Sideways High Volatility Market and explore why it’s a FANTASTIC choice for building high expectancy trading systems. This market type gets no love, but I find building systems to outperform in sideways high volatility very easy.

Why? Because of recency bias. We are always viewing everything in context with what came before. Market is in uptrend and changes… we just naturally assume that a [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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