Education
Now Reading
How To Recognize Trend Reversals
312

How To Recognize Trend Reversals

by The MoleJune 11, 2019

When it comes to indicators I definitely have come round circle during my evolution as a trader. Like most of us I started out like a kid in the candy store, especially during the early ThinkOrSwim years, which opened the flood gates on the availability of advanced tools for lowly retail traders.

However by the time I launched Evil Speculator I already had chiseled it down to only a handful of indicators – several of them being of my own creation thanks to my coding skills.

I introduced the Zero indicator in late 2008 and it quickly became my #1 tool for interpreting participation and price action in the E-Mini futures. There is a good number of subscribers who have been actively using the Zero for a decade now, which obviously speaks to its utility.

For everything else these days the majority of the charts I look at feature two Bollinger bands and either Net-Line Levels or Spike-Highs/Lows. Still overkill if you ask me and once I grow up I plan on using no indicators at all πŸ˜‰

Now the main reason that I consciously limit my use of indicators is that they, as derivatives of a price series, are inherently lagging. There are a few exceptions, for one our venerable Zero, which for the record is not a derivative of the E-Mini but uses a trail mix of equity related market measures.

Reading The Tealeaves

Many traders use stacks of indicators in order to gauge the strength of a trend and to pin a possible reversal. However no indicator or combination of indicators will ever enable us to call a top or a bottom – simply because indicators are derivatives of price and thus are inherently lagging. Period.

Of course we try to get close as possible or better yet just resign ourselves to the fact that price action cannot be predicted and that we as traders remain relegated to eternally ride the coat tails of the market.

For me and most of my peers it’s not so much an exercise of pinning tops or bottoms but to know what type of market phase I am participating in. I’m totally fine with missing out on top or bottom ticks – I just want to know which beast I’m dealing with: Bull, Bear, or Sideways.

To get a good read these days I confine myself with looking at the price action and in particular at price highs and price lows, which admittedly are well expressed by Spike-Highs/Lows – yes, an indicator (sort of).

The E-Mini chart above shows a series of Net-Lines which are similar in nature but not identical to SHs or SLs. Which is why I have pointed out major SHs via green and major SLs via orange arrows. Pay close attention to the series of alternating SHs/SLs that accompanied the recent low volatility rally in equities.

Which up to this moment remains intact as each new SL sits on top of the last one. The day that changes we are looking at a possible correction lower.

For a great example of just that let’s take a peek at the gold futures over the past few weeks. The rally higher there was so vehement that we were having difficulty pointing at SHs and SLs as the reversals were extremely shallow.

The very moment that started to change and volatility kicked in it spelled the looming end of the ongoing advance. But it wasn’t until a veritable breach of the rising SL series (which I pointed out on the chart) and a failure in recovery that selling pressure really made itself felt.

There is still a chance of a reversal higher, but if we are able to count a series of lower SHs and lower SLs then it will become clear that bears are in possession of the ball with the odds of further downside.

Beauty In Simplicity

As you may have realized I am not using any machine learning tools or complex algorithms here. It’s a simple exercise in reading the price action, that’s all. Which by the way is only one example of many ways how being able to properly interpret price action trumps any indicator every time.

BTW, this is a topic I have spent considerable time covering in my Price Action Master Class I’m about to release by early summer. Definitely a series to look forward to if you are a discretionary or systemic trader.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator

  • evilasevildoes

    USA PPI (MoM) for May 0.1% vs 0.1% consensus estimate. The prior
    reading was 0.2%.

  • HD

    great blog today Mole. Only price pays.

  • HD

    this will be the 4th R level they gapped it over in globex. THOSE MF’RS!!!

  • BobbyLow

    WTF happened?

  • HD

    Speaking of indicators, the squeeze meterβ„’ (>70) is 3:4 in June on sells of 10 HanDles.
    Monitoring a -D
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f61c47bb051c72584e21e4b4f1d1288aebae5a1f3095add375f638be94b921c6.png

  • HD

    they ran a buy program at 3:AM and gapped 2900

  • BobbyLow

    I was long MYM overnight and got stopped with a good chunk of my profit gone on the gap down betwen 9:30 AM and 9 :45 AM. I got back in but might be out again soon. This looks like it could be a morning of long wicks.

  • HD
  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I’m pretty much a MOMO trader currently on a 15 Minute Chart and don’t care what direction. On the gap down at 9:30 I had a wide stop and still got whacked. I went from +2 R down to +.5 R. I got back in and got taken out for -.25 R so I’m done at least for the morning session. Like I said before when I get both long upper and lower wicks on my 15 Minute, it usually means slice and dice time and it’s best for me to step asside although in hindsight, I probably should have gone short at the close of my 9:45 Candle.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks HD πŸ™‚

  • mSquare

    SQQQ – Bought small position in mid-$36s and when QQQ $185.0x. Stop $185.6x a bit above the high for today $184.40

  • BobbyLow

    Had to chuckle about the candy store of indicators on TOS Mole. I too have used at one time or another about 90% of the 100 or so different indicators available on TOS looking for the one that was going to take me to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Unfortunately none of them took me there. I have stripped my view down to one set of BB’s along with ATRTS and that’s it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    those are AWESOME slippers. needs a jacket to match.
    I’ve got $20 in my pocket.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK8mJJJvaes

  • BobbyLow

    Definitely looking like slice and dice time now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We’ve all been there, Bobby.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • RoastBeeph

    This blog is amazing, will be subscribing again to zero soon.

  • mSquare

    Thanks. Please explain, why these specific EMA envelopes of 89,6 & 89.4?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If you don’t believe in that old Italian. similar to Bigfoot.
    Use a simple ruler. LOL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/739704b77eadf3105cf268b8fecaf414fb185fa6b0748cc86dd97046602ef1c2.png

  • zzezzezz

    Excellent post @molecool:disqus !

  • Cyd

    Chieftan From both Julie and I .You did it again We would like to join the lair with the zero. Also need your e mail would like to send some info that would be pertinent Thanks Mole (Chieftan)
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    I have a trial IB Platform running along side my TOS. While I’m having some slack time, I put in a simultated order with IB and was filled. Now I’m trying to put a stop loss in and I can’t find where or how the hell to do it. The IB platform seems a bit like a Rubiks Cube? I’ll keep looking but if anyone knows the secret of how the fuck to put a stop in on IB please let me know. I want to be able to move around this thing easily just in case and before I fund it.

  • Steve Brophy

    The word is TEALEAVES

  • mSquare

    Ah that Italian! I prefer the ruler…

  • Cyd

    Bobby L with the stall USO have now a tight stop on remaining 1/4 long SLV a possible reversal now which was down to 13.71 target yesterday and now a possible recovery. EXAS at target posted yesterday and now showing some strain

    Cyd

  • HD

    -D!!!

  • mSquare

    IB has many types of Stop-Limit orders. I was trying to upload a screen snapshot in Classic showign it but Disqus error preventing that. Maybe thsi link will help

    https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=608

  • HD

    How many key reversals has this market seen in 2019?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    TOO MANY

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry – corrected.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @cyd:

    Joining is easy, no special invite required:

    https://evilspeculator.com/amember/signup/IEGIAOfge

    You can email me at admin@ or use this link:

    https://evilspeculator.com/get-in-touch/

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    i responded above ^^^^^^^

  • mSquare

    SQQQ – Out at today’s pivot (not being greedy), my target.
    Looks like $COMPX flipping back to green

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nutty Gas may be starting it’s build season for winter. Here are my secret indicators… RSI, simple bollinger and VWAP. Keeping an eye on UGAZ

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05f2b1da306a4dd71df93f2c650644d9d8a763739bae06ed097233b49901dea4.jpg

  • Jason13

    Great post, Mole.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks mSquare! That film was very heplful. I had been clicking all around where I was supposed to but wasn’t hitting the right button. Got it now. Thanks again.

  • BKXtoZERO

    IYR realestate index is a big slow moving flock of dumb birds all piled in. My Wile Coyote plan here is short via DRV 6.38 and 6.5 in size. Overdue for a correction. This looks like a TVIX play from an absolute low. I will break out the mask soon!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/118841ad3b22d6d311d33423f96796fa904261e9d8843f510592c6948b2f1c66.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    recommend you turn on the log feature. You’ll go blind staring and that narrow range, or Peggy.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    I look at IYR most of the time, Just showing what DRV may break out of.

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    cherry picked commentary.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Hell hath no Fury like that of a VWAP scorned”

  • HD

    It sure is. I never thought we’d be >2900 but the commentary was itd be a free bullish ride above that and I objected. FWIW the train was full this morn.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Can you imagine riding on the side, and suddenly needing the restroom?

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/B7gS6WAeHCY/maxresdefault.jpg

  • Cyd

    GG Houston We have a problem lol
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    That 9:30 AM Spike down and attempt to rally back really screwed me up this morning and I overode a clear short signal right after it happened. I finally managed to get short but I’m really late to this move.

    I need to stand in the corner and repeat over and over again – take all trade signals no matter how shitty they look. take all trade signals no matter how shitty they look . . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The engineer can’t see out the front window. Lovely.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    remember my comment on Sunday evening, ‘don’t think don’t think’.
    Well that train has left the station. gap closed, and monday/tues up up up.

  • BobbyLow

    Correct but sometimes that’s easier said than done. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you make the rules, I’ll execute. together we’d make one helluva team!

  • HD

    I’m not nearly as short as I wanted to be either.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure. LOL

    Seriously though as a trend/momo trader, I never catch the first part of the move anyway and this time I was just more late than I should have been. πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    Bobby Very difficult market to trade. Do not beat yourself up. Right now one leg at a time which you are doing rather well
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Sometimes this game can be more difficult to play than usual. LOL

    BTW after being late to enter, I was just now able to bring my stop up to a more reasonable level.

  • Darkthirty

    Having a problem trying to figure out TOS charts, they just killed off prophet, Char ts are a lot different

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Cyd.

    The market can play all kinds of tricks on us but the only time I beat myself up a little is when I make a mistake in my trade execution. One of the things I learned from Scott Phillips (Scott from Australia) was that I should strive for a 95% execution rate meaning that I should have no more than 5 mistakes for every 100 trades. When a trader is mistake prone then all the back testing, forward testing and system building doesn’t mean squat because trading mistakes will kill performance.

  • BobbyLow

    I never used prophet but use their regular charts everyday. It takes a little while to get used to the format and once you get them the way you want don’t forget to save your studies etc.

  • Darkthirty

    Apparently you have volume whether you want it or not..

  • Cyd

    SPX reversal top of 21.2 bollinger band. We must be cautious as lower band has not turned up meaning either direction has no edge
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a42326fffcba18738118e37fbfab942ad890496db794f476121c89dffe3f3d42.png

  • BobbyLow

    No. Go to settings on top of your chart and uncheck volume. Uncheck everything to do with volume on equities and futures etc. and hit apply and then hit OK,

  • Darkthirty

    Thanks, killed futs but not equits. All the pretty colors makes me think I should be investing in majik mushrooms..

  • HD

    The 3 white soldier candle pattern was worth as much as 70 handles. FWIW.

  • Cyd

    Three white soldiers usually means overbought but we all know that overbought can become more overbought. Mr HD SPY volume has been suspect on the rally and a pullback now seems reasonable
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    USO trading inside yesterday’s candle Easy to watch either a break above yesterday’s high or low
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    You need to uncheck all volume stuff for equities too. Keep fooling with it you’ll see.

  • HD

    Hi CYD. Shared the 3 white soldiers last TH. It’s a bullish reversal pattern.

  • Darkthirty

    Getting it tuned will take a few days….

  • mSquare

    This ‘should be’ a test for active traders.

    Most of the ‘buy-market-and-wait’ and indexer have had no moves since $SPX made highs almost 18 months ago last January! Many of those who sold (some) in Dec are even -ve.

    If you made money since, you are good? Perhaps a low standard to beat, but trying to compare with your performance in another period of market is not too useful – you have to trade what you have and not what you desire!

  • Cyd

    There is something that very well could take place. This summer SPX could be range bound between 2950 and 2700. Such an occurrence the keltner channel works very well on range bound. We trade it as it is and see it My lunch is now over

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how about a Donchian?

  • Darkthirty

    Still a gap at 26300 INDU? Looking for 65 on RSI (5) $indu

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m being a bit of a troll.
    Master Chief speaks of Donchian one month,
    https://evilspeculator.com/ancient-trading-concepts/
    and then says today he wants to get down to None.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    I told Julie before she left that I would go heads up with you too All in fun gg
    Cyd

  • mSquare

    TQQQ – small buy mid $58s. Stop QQQ < $183 ($182.78 was today's low). Seems, we are heading back into the green and perhaps even get back to near $185.40 highs of early AM…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    with or without pajamas? =P

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just bought the CRB index in the other part of my 401K, pretty decent chunk.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98414eb037e1e67d0cbad83d98373f47674b63244c55ea76cb71802d551e2080.jpg

  • Cyd

    SLV holding mid channel – support and it’s 21 ema Trading between 5 and 21 ema’s.A bullish close above 5 ema and back in long
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ce7fc0f41baa1c0a0c5c67bdb3bd5113a3d44ee108c28bb673169e0f7354fb6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you didn’t consult with us first? where is the love?
    do you have a fatal attraction to downtrends?

    Here’s hoping for a bounce.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c76df8dca6158e2e1a0cb761b7d2ad2aed5733c0bdd7b76d17f2ac4f25420c0.png

  • Cyd

    Holy Grail … Batman … Batman …. Batman

    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Calling for USD weakness…. Ag going up. Metals. I like things cheaperer.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If I did my maffs right, 15% off the highs. But imagine the extra Indian buffet at 20%

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can’t go through my whole life being short things and long vix. Time to grow up and be responsible lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI 50, no edge no edge!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..spent all your remaining money on that classic car eh?
    (Yes, I know, restoration can be damn expensive.)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    BTW… talking 401K, current results here…. 4 years in a row of (+). I owe that to Mole and Scott. I would prefer another 100% year but I can’t get any good rubber on their faces for smoky burnouts. They are annoying this year intraday.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/211f9a47120f4c46bef6be2cb85479a6da2e66b8f9283a789ba18613e5d63eba.jpg

  • Cyd

    What pays ? Price or RSI ? Like HD said underneath Only price pays. Get on board with a bullish close above 13.85 Mr GG

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’ve forgotten, I was onboard a long time ago.

  • Cyd

    Don’t be gun shy the past is the past . Julie says the sun sets only to rise again and it’s so true Also can’t keep a good man down
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    4k car and only 1k in so far including radio and tires and I am near done.

  • Cyd

    No bullish close above 13.85 and no trade KISS
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s cool. So you didn’t do a frame up restoration with New/Old stock parts.
    like a real man

  • BKXtoZERO

    It is actually worth more as an all original car and…. It doesn’t need it.

  • Cyd

    I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that oil and USO are going to trade sideways then another decline
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Nothing to do with trading but just wanted to let y’all know that my wife and I have been married 42 years as of today. It’s amazing how fast time goes by and yes we would definitely do it all over again! πŸ™‚

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Cyd

    Just one word sums it up Bobby Wonderful
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Cyd πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks BKX. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Please…. Just call me BK…..BKX is so formal. I may rejoin as TSLAtoZero.

  • Cyd

    I will too .. BK

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Overlord that was what I believe D Day was named. Julie’s husband lost family members in WW2 – Korea and Vietnam Memorial Day has a very special meaning to her husband.

    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Very possible Cyd. It all depends on what comes out of what I call the BS machine. Either we still have oil gushing out all over the place or stuff happening in the middle east and or supply lower than expected etc,.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    barely over 100 comments? this is pathetic.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ya’Know BK, I’d thought you go with the traditional video!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze1sx9YR2Ec

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the dog gets the last dollar. Get’s me every time.

  • HD

    June gloom.

  • Cyd

    Were all Moonstruck. My favorite movie with Cher and Nicolas Cage The Moon
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8b093cea4a1a0500a079e07b3d12cfdedd27ef883a8aeecae1b733459d905c89.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bobby deserves the best.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • BobbyLow

    I think tight stops would have been killer today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    If the MKT would just drop right now that wont have to happen to me.

  • Cyd

    Pullback time watching volume SPY into close.Selling volume light and declining but really no buying volume either If below VWAP and 2894.57 which it is now will short at close
    Cyd

  • HD

    Wild day to close em flat. Pure fuckery.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m short right now and barring a squeeze over the next hour or so, I’ll stay short untill I get stopped out. I’m not crazy about this price action but we’ll see what happens.

    I’m still long oil and not feeling great about this one either.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    feel the theta-burnnnnnn.

  • Cyd

    There has been a break of the lower trend line too from 2728
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Ain’t that the truth!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in smaller position daily swing size mode so it doesn’t bother me….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    it’ a pullback to test. plain-and-simple.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p91429890070

  • BobbyLow

    Option talk? F Options. Nothing but heartbreak there. LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t hold back Bobby. tell us how you really feel. LOL.

  • Cyd

    USO trading inside yesterday’s candle Went long above the 5 ema and took 3/4 off and have a profit but breaks betow yesterday’s low out the remaining position Bobby we take what we can get
    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah don’t forget you can only lose the cost of your option. Again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again. And after awhile you find you have nothing left. Being over dramatic here but I know you get the picture. πŸ™‚

  • HD

    Rally monkey right to full train. Lol

  • RoastBeeph

    Not if you are selling them. πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    Taking a 1/2 short position SPX not too big not too small There was a higher high but also a lower low The reversal yesterday following a spike high and the bearish engulfing candle today is a problem for the bulls
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok, wasn’t it cyd calling for a fall to the 17th?
    and I mentioned the 18th turn around tuesday?

  • BobbyLow

    Understood. I congatulate you and the few people who can consistently make money trading options. I traded them for a couple of years and tried all kinds of ways including exotic spreads, naked and just about every other way possible. They just never worked for me.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..hold me back rats! I’m gonna strangle him.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    You and Julie are into probes….what is that about? Edit (he he he)

  • BobbyLow

    What are you using Cyd? ETF? Futures?

  • HD

    $SPX. What does 5/1,5/13, 6/3 and today have in common?

  • Cyd

    Bobby SH ETF That is what we use. Long we just buy SPY. The 2X not our cup of tea

    Cyd

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. We all have our favorite things we like to trade.

  • BobbyLow

    Days of the week? Either Mon or Weds? OK I give what do they have in common? πŸ™‚

  • Cyd

    BK A full position is 6 % of trading capital A half position is 3% A probe is sticking toe in water and then add. We add to full positions and half positions

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    there goes the 2% rule. talk about spoiled milk.
    No Wonder Julie is 3X.

    some say 1%
    https://www.thebalance.com/day-traders-stick-to-the-1percent-risk-rule-1030858

  • Darkthirty

    Try again…

  • RoastBeeph

    I’ve never made money buying options but make consistent, steady income selling spreads.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    CONGRATS you old bastard!

    Almost 19 years here. Best years of my life. I’m a lucky SOB.

  • Cyd

    We are the same size and trade clothes all the time. Been doing it since grade school We call it double wardrobe Easy on the clothing expense. Today wearing her blue and white blouse and one of her skirts. She has some of my outdoor wear on their vacation.
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Right over their heads.

  • Darkthirty

    On purpose, dwanna play…..

  • zzezzezz
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    dude. SPOILER ALERT next time will ya? Sheeesh.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    now. we just need Gartman to speak up tomorrow, and go long.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I didn’t mean dress size. {face palm}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Anyone have that Aussie video about trading link?

  • zzezzezz

    looks like turn-around days?
    EDIT: oops, forgot today’s yellow arrow… but you get the idea, assuming that’s what you’re getting at?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66a4b344bd7f4dca71fb099d2ff7c1390abb0eb3305e4f314c64c3619a27b42b.png

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mole and congrats to you too. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Do you mean the one by Nick Radge?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew1L6SLpHgM

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, that’s the one. Cyd, sit down with some tea, and listen to it.

    time marker 21:33 is importante’.

  • HD

    Thx EZE. Yes and each of those daily candles is almost (34) fibo$

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ruh Ro…. Futures down 1.12 pts. Someone stepped out for a hotdog.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    as Julie would say – “see below”

  • Cyd

    Are you roasting GG ? Mid 70’s here.Watching K .Today showing relative strength with a retest of a broken channel trend line. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment with MACD below center line. Still a bearish setup and slices down thru support I will be there in full colors A little trick is to add trend lines and retracements on the MACD https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4dd940eb98b628b559eaabf0484f411c8d312f9f2cc98edc823d70247075a53.png

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    112 on the car ride home just now. Comfortably warm.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    Western MT summers very seldom above 90. July is the hottest month and averages 82 August about 80. Spring is the most difficult time to plan for outside activities. The phrase Spring time in the Rockies is very apt to what can happen Winter you know what to expect

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Have you been up to Calgary or the Canadian rockies?

  • Darkthirty

    Uranus…

  • Cyd

    Yes the Calgary Stampede. Bozeman and MSU host the College Rodeo Finals yearly. We like rodeo a lot of fun. We try to make Cheyenne Frontier Days too. In Oregon we always went to the Pendleton Roundup

    Speaking of the Canadian Rockies just Glacier Natl Park MT as Waterton Natl Park (Canada) are together. Both similar in beauty and Glacier easier

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    thanks. some place GREEN, blue, fresh air, and no sound.

    https://images.dailyhive.com/20180424105459/shutterstock_717270061.jpg

    maybe a canoe.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    {face palm}

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Actually Jupiter square Neptune….look for an oil reversal..

  • Scott_CA

    Very artistic! Beautiful…… Is that Klingon ship going into or out of Warp Drive? Quantum computers rock!

  • Cyd

    GG All of Western MT is beautiful Something like 9 or 10 wilderness areas. Lee Metcalf Wilderness (Spanish Peaks) just a 20 minute drive south of Bozeman.The show A River Runs Through It filmed in the Gallatin Canyon Gallatin River. When that show hit the screen the visitors to the area was unreal. That summer the Bozeman Chamber of Commerce and tourism officials reported 7 times the influx of visitors
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    I have only been to the desert just several times.Eastern Oregon is the Alvord Desert and very remote No cactus tho I would like to see cactus and road runners . AZ road runners?
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    I want to see a road runner lol
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    I like my chart set ups… Very Wile Coyote like. Just a picture of an anvil and the road runner…..a yellow arrow drawn in…. You guys get too fancy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sound good to me.

    “Avoid making important financial decisions at this time, and beware of opportunities that seem too good to be true. “

  • Cyd

    Wow BK You read my mind I talked about wanting to see a real live road runner with GG
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yes, but they are rare. you won’t see one on a random weekend.

    https://cindygurmann.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/1e44472b-b93c-4c01-bf89-f77c308cf4e9.jpeg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    see? it’s the Matrix. this is all preprogrammed. we’re all bots in flesh.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well Moles post was about keeping it simple and for once I think I found something that I accel in.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    BK Don’t forget the Acme everything lol
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    We must now figure a target for the possible pullback. 2808 – 2819 is what I come up with
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    SPX 2808 – 2819
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    2823.
    edit: with RSI 50.

  • Cyd

    Do you think SPX ATH or now the completion of a triple top and no ATH. This pullback could be nasty as the banks and small caps have yet to close above their respective 55 ema’s

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    It’s right on the fence. that’s what Julie would tell me.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3AAGG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p02469514450

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s hard to fake 2000 small caps.

  • Cyd

    Julie reads the tape very well. I can too but she spends more time than me.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    well SURE. she has a man to clean the dishes!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    2200 turd of a turd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    2275, but that would be BRUTAL.

  • Cyd

    What is most important is the hourly chart at resistance and support levels Her husband grilled over and over the importance of the hourly chart for volume and price action It’s all there in the hourly charts. Mole knows that too and he uses the 5 minute chart for his entries and exits. Just like what Grizz would do.What is really amazing is Moles charts and the charts from Grizz;s notes are very close They both know the market very well

    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    It would be cool !

  • Cyd

    You can hit almost every reversal on the hourly chart. Mole and Grizz both know that and Julie and I do our best
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    not as cool as 4 touchdowns.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    @BK Remember the chart $VIX with the 50 – 80 and 160 sma.s If it went down thru the 160 was a trade TVIX and to watch the 50 and 80 sma’s On the money BK
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01e80482353d4cfb6e9797c058cc2ae3459085deb6a7b68e36ddfdda9958ac45.png

  • Cyd

    We do too combining the daily with the hourly Longer trade the weekly with the daily
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    50 crossed your 80

  • Cyd

    Both 50 and 80 are resistance For market to go up must cross below. Right now a divergence with SPX VIX stagnating while SPX has risen showing a level of fear I am glad I brought this chart up as this increases the probability of a pullback
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Just like I said there is a potential for a trading range all summer between 2950 and 2700 Having a cold beer after dinner No glass of wine like Jewels.A quick macaroni and cheese with brussel sprouts

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    When we were at the “U” we took a cake decorating class on a Saturday sponsored by adult education. It was held in the bakery dept of a Safeway store. We had these cakes in front of us and aprons on and everything. We had to do these squiggles on the cakes Jewels was starting and I was not sure what to do The instructor asked if I needed help. All I could say is that I never made a cake in my life and surely don’t know how to decorate one. If I remember we were in our sophmore year
    Cyd

  • zzezzezz

    Thinking of long /ZC. Anyone?

  • Cyd

    ZZEZ The commercials have increased their net short positions substantially in corn
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34beffd36a2a8ea5900fcafb3f3a92e0ca7de6db24053c8671cf46e5cb5574e0.png

  • Cyd

    The May low the commercials were net long and the specs were net short Who got burned ? Be careful going against the commercials
    Cyd

  • zzezzezz

    So 2650 it is!

  • zzezzezz

    Thanks Cyd!

  • BKXtoZERO

    This was great. “I am a professional manager of bad trades”.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’ve got a lot of chores to catch up with today – so no post. Not much to be said/done anyway beyond what I’ve offered over the past week.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gerbs have a high metabolic rate.

  • HD

    cyd, Some things to consider….how exactly does the vix have resistance? Since it only attempts to measure 30 day IV anything longer timeframe is looking at what?

  • Cyd

    Hello HD The chart is from Schaeffer Reseach which the moving averages have an uncanny track record of indicating directional turning points.They show this chart many times. Remember resistance is on it’s way down not up and support is on it’s way up and not down So if VIX rises and SPX declines watch VIX rising into the 160 sma

    Cyd

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • HD

    to clarify, how does a math formula, the VIX, have resistance? There are no buyers or sellers. Looking back at IV 3 months ago has little merit of current IV. 30 days. Just something to consider.

  • HD

    There’s a c=a 28(55)

  • HD

    Interesting moon phases showing some symmetry. This is my contribution today. My archery shop called yesterday and my 2019.5 bow is ready! Priorities. Pumped for this one. It’s all custom.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3487b1a33843f32a4d729147e25509d31b126ff7deca20022168751a9d47351d.png

  • Cyd

    VIX below 12 dangerous for bulls
    Below 16 bullish but complacent
    Above 16 fear creeping into the market Below 35 fear leaving the market
    35 – 50 higher levels of fear and recognition phase
    Above 50 extreme levels of fear and signs of capitulation
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    hilarious! I’m steeling that one. HA!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was looking at that one this morning. Not ripe yet IMO.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ha! “what do you call Cyd with a bow?”

    Dangerous! LOL
    http://morningmoss.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/19524ddf1e4aa4c4b723ce603e606071.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    on weekly charts its in area where it topped last 4x going back to 2015…..of course record floods and tariffs were not in that same picture

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that string shouldn’t touch his cheek. Seriously!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • nirav777

    is a trap!!

  • nirav777
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +1, maybe sell it till Europe closes?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh ho, just saw USO.
    (it) got smacked in the nose.
    Cyd’s hunch was correct.

  • Cyd

    SLV going up too GG Looks like it will clear the 5 ema

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    meh. gap closing!

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Tired but hanging in there. A lot of possibilities
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look left. it’s a crowded trade!!

    edit: short the weak. not the entire sector index!

  • Cyd

    Small caps another short setup. Two spike highs at the 55 ema and 50% retrace
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59a57a649b0c8664b72ac4db5aba862272e5a67310819b6525dec68114e66f99.png

  • Cyd

    What isn’t a crowded trade.right now.? Pick our spots. These trades have come to us No chasing Perfect
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as I’ve told Julie. predators observe the herd. Look for the weak, the limping, the old.
    https://cdn8.dissolve.com/p/D806_171_005/D806_171_005_0004_600.jpg

  • Sp00nman

    Good, curious to hear how the NMN and other such supplement is working out for you? How large of a dose do you take daily?

  • Cyd

    Exactly I’ve got to motor late for work
    Cyd

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    @molecool:disqus Is the weekly statistics tool still available? I can’t seem to find it.

  • Sp00nman

    Did you buy an etf or MF to get long a basket of commodities?

  • Scott_CA

    Under Services/Statistical Trading or….

    https://evilspeculator.com/statistics/

    or so it seems….

  • ridingwaves

    sure hope Julie stops shorting EXAS…..she is getting creamed….lessons are sometimes hard…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ah you know. ‘wrong? not for long!’
    {snicker}

    it’s going exponential!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    the best way to play it was buy any pullback, people don’t want something up there ass…a test that avoids it has herd following, like Tesla a year ago….the PNF charts nailed it perfectly….it was a grand slam but some people like to bunt….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    could you post the PNF please? I’m open to learning.

  • ridingwaves

    I posted it when it was 22, 42 etc….rode it from 18 to 100, re-bought more on pullback and trailing stop is in…I think I told her 10x she was battling a losing cause…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Even I didn’t like that one, and that is saying something. It broke out of the area where it was trapped like a rat.

  • ridingwaves

    hadn’t done it in a while….yikes more upside….weekly triple top breakout to boot
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ad2160ebc8053de7592677ec357ffd294d4dffa184c6236b09c8bf613bb407c.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Here is my longer term CRB long commodities set up I took yesterday, stop area is obvious, longer term slower moving idea for other area of 401K rather than cash. Simple higher lows.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e44390e980d2af697a869cb1c0727451dc29eb32a08f2ea400c3eaff3c50147b.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    chart was just bit of story, the power of no colonoscopy test is hard to short, bullish momo created with every commercial….162 target on weekly

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I take 125mg twice per day – so far so good. I have had other health issues recently which somewhat make it difficult to compare it with the baseline.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was looking at the channel, and the area that preceded it and saw it adding on to the top of the channel on a break. It was perched at top of channel

  • ridingwaves
  • Sp00nman

    I like the trade BKX.. any etfs or MFs you invest in to track the index or commodity index?

  • BKXtoZERO

    at work the list is rather boring in that half, they have one commodities fund that basically tracks the CRB. I can’t recall the name.

  • Cyd

    SPX this intraday consolidation is unnerving Better pullback now and ideally drop below 2875 I would be more comfortable Revising possible downside targets 2838 – 2845

    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    unnerving like seeing a ghost?

  • Sp00nman

    Cool good to hear. I bought some and it *seems* to help at one or two doses (of 125mg) per day. The effects are very hard to measure, but I was doing some hard labor for a few days and amazingly wasn’t sore as hell afterwards which makes me think it helped. I’ve also been taking 1mg of Resveratrol.

    David Sinclair (he did a podcast w/ Joe Rogan) takes 1mg of nmn/day, which is quite a bit. I’ve also been changing up my diet to include some intermittent fasting which also seems to help.

  • zzezzezz
  • Cyd

    With the distribution yesterday more profit taking would certainly be in order .Appears to be some complacency. The close today will be very important .No buying no selling
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Quick Non-trading story. I took the 62 Comet down I5 to Seattle to the wife’s parents. Today’s roads are brutal and I knew I wasn’t going to like it but jeeeez. On the way home 10pm it was running a little hot on the highway so I cut over to the old local north south 99…. lots of lights. I was seeing crazy obnoxious stuff as was, but then I saw the craziest thing I ever saw in my life…..(worse than going long here) I am in the left of two lanes already doing 45-48 in a 40 zone. The center lane is for left turns across the road. I see someone coming up really fast in my mirror like they are going to pass me. I looked left at that center lane and in many places it has curb barriers to guide and force patterns. I look and I see the curb, I see them coming up, and they were NOT turning left. I heard them accelerate as they thought they were passing me, then I heard to REALLY LOUD gut wrenching bangs. Their wheels hitting the curb at what looked like 70. The car went up and down hard, and they actually kept on the gas, perhaps out of embarrassment….. but they soon stopped in the center lane about 100 yards up the road and I could hear their bent up rims hitting the ground with little remnants of tire left on there. They must have bent all the front end components and most likely the frame. I see a lot of crazy stuff in Seattle but this took the cake. Glad they didn’t take out my Comet. I am not driving south to Seattle in that car ever again. Jeez.

  • Cyd

    Is there some kind of news ? A male contraception pill or something ? With this price action will not be holding short overnight
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    BK Don’t drive north either. Drive east to MT and get out of there pronto
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I suggest you start preparing for the Zombie Apocalypse.
    The climate you live in is most suitable for weak creatures who feed on brains.

    This car is within your budget range.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TLBOPlHPR30/V9FseHHL4cI/AAAAAAAAZ6E/3jXXYHvFfHopOV20rwfD2AJkussz4HSaACLcB/s1600/MB1.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    is that an invite? I don’t think I would make it thru the Mormon line in Utah.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    You would think that there would be more selling today No drop below the 5 ema Must decline below 2875 then the 5 ema. If it holds 2875 at close or above I am out. Tomorrow another day

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    The other way AZ to Denver then sneak northwest into WY then MT Bypass the Mormon Tabernacle Choir altogether The sneak thru route
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    too funny.
    Do I need a gask mask for the Yellowstone sulfuric clouds?
    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51f2BK-9v-L._SX425_.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    in hindsight, it looks like *someone* {cough} sold a boatload of calls, with no intention of honorably meeting them. Hell, they are probably buying them back now! (cough someone here cough) !@#$#$%$&^*#

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    SLV has pulled back too but holding the 21 ema No position yet. Julie closed all positions before she left on Thursday so not hurt by EXAS ramp

    Cyd

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume VERY low today….Does volume still precede price?

  • Cyd

    Watching banks and semis which are down along with oil. Small caps intraday reversal SPX basically little movement with a hour and a half left.The close is going to be important Weird market today Stop SH @ 27.18
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    I watch volume I feel it’s important
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah, it’s called #metoo

  • Cyd

    There is no buying or selling today bifurcated market which can be dangerous for bulls I always look for banks and semis to trade in unison which they are today down

    Cyd

  • mSquare

    MU – Just went long (via selling PUTs). Stop $31.1x
    http://schrts.co/nwFJjsRQ

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m not getting any of the content that used to be there. That’s why I asked.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Redpill! MGTOW!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • BKXtoZERO

    Long UGAZ just now for multi month play idea.I also changed positioning. Sold most of TVIX and DRV for a small ding. 22 to 21.6. DRV lost 0.15. Just not seeing it. The last 2 times I had this feeling and all but closed reverse positions the MKT cratered twice. Retaining small amount each.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I actually prefer driving something like this around LA…. really gets the stuck-up out of my way.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Feeling?
    this one goes out to our Illustrious BobbyLow this week. Salute!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrI-UBIB8Jk

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well when your set up isn’t happening and is getting pushed….you do get a feeling. That thing that tells you that you are wrong.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, I’ve been there. 10 minutes after open, and my long calls were about to go kaPUT, zip, zilch. I’ve never flipped so fast. whew.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    300’d Comment.

    Time Check.

  • Darkthirty

    That release will rip his nose off…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Do nothin’ sideways day but we did get a gap fill. Range on Zero is very small, so the jury is still out here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Do Nothing til you hear from me…..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zenBVRtMFGs

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • evilasevildoes

    attack on japanese ethanol tanker in Oman