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April 2, 2020

Walking The Line

I was observing the signal on the Zero throughout yesterday’s session which seemed to be dominated by low volume but consistent selling pressure. Total contract volume was a bit under 24 Million contracts traded which is 85% below the 2020 YTD average of 28 Million. Worse yet – total futures volume was 136k which is only 36% of the 2020 YTD average of 389k per session.

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April 1, 2020

Corona Fools Day

Several nations, including Thailand, Germany (of course) and India, have warned against spreading coronavirus-related misinformation on April Fools’ Day, with some countries even threatening jail time for perpetrators. Which makes me wonder: Had the same regulations applied in late February going into March, then wouldn’t many politicians and so called ‘experts’ in the West be sitting in prison right now? But heck, what do I know? I’ve only been warning about the global threat of COVID-19 since February 7th.

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March 27, 2020

Bear Market Rally

Yesterday’s hypothesis of an unfolding bear market rally appears to playing out thus far. However with indices having recovered about 38% the easy part of the journey is rapidly coming to an end. With bad news galore is it now time to back up the truck and load up on short positions?

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February 25, 2020

Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride

Okay let’s not sugarcoat it – yesterday’s session started out with a nasty gap lower and then got even uglier from there as it failed to exhibit any buying interest whatsoever. The VIX punched into the red zone and ended up closing around the 25 mark.

True to form the financial media whipped itself into a collective bearish frenzy announcing the end of the world as we know it. Except that this time around they may actually be right as it has a global epidemic to back up its perma-death-wish. So why the heck would I be crazy enough to even think about grabbing a long position here?

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Recency BiasRecency Bias
    Over the past two months we have been navigating some pretty volatile tape which in the process offered us several swing trading opportunities. As a result I have been …
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