The past few days have been rough on my open campaigns, most of which had been scraping the 1R mark in paper profits by Monday. One after one turned on a dime and hit my trailing stops which were still set to break/even. Could have been worse I guess and I should count my blessings as whipsaw during the summer season is simply par for the course.
My quant buddy Tony happens to be one of the most intelligent and hard working people I’ve met in my life. And before you quip that I should get out more often let it be said that I used to live & work in Silicon Valley until the Dot.com bubble burst back in 2000. So I have met my share of smart people and exasperating nerds.
A few weeks back I talked about the VIX and how it had slowly established a new rising support line starting at the end of 2018. Which in turn ties directly into last week’s post in which I suggested that the recent rally in equities was one of the most feared and perhaps most hated as well.
The Dollar has been in free fall over the past week after the Federal Reserve hinted at the possibility of multiple interest rate cuts over the remainder of 2019 and perhaps beyond. In its statement it said that it was prepared to lower borrowing costs to counter slowing domestic growth and sluggish inflation. Clearly to the U.S. Federal Reserve a median home price of $227k, over 4x that of the median household income of $59k, is not high enough and needs to be inflated.