Whether you like it or not, most would agree that the German language has a good number of very cool words which are not only difficult to translate into other languages but also hold special meaning. Schadenfreude is a popular one that even English speakers seem to have widely adopted over the years. Blitzkrieg is one that is associated with Germany’s WW2 ambitions which speaks to the country’s ability to exert ruthless efficiency which however ended in total disaster.
Don’t you hate it when someone you know is proven to be right about something and then keeps on rubbing it in by saying ‘I told ya so’? Well, I hate to be that guy today (actually I don’t) but heck… I TOLD YA SO! What am I droning on about again? Implied volatility of course – what did you think?
What is the first thing you look at on Monday morning before the trading session opens? Most traders attempt to get a ‘feel’ for the market by tracking one or more futures contracts related to equity indices. So most likely we’re talking about the ES, the NQ, or the RTY which is the new CME contract for the Russell 2000. I personally mainly focus on the former two but always keep an eye on the RTY as it sometimes provides early clues of divergence. But before doing any of that my first go-to charts are my weekly statistics. Why is that?
The market seems to be going through a manic depressive phase right now which is increasingly affecting its ability to handicap risk. This was to be expected to some extent given the turbulent times we live in. But there’s a lot more to this and in essence it all boils down to the growing contrast between two clashing world views, with Wall Street apparently ready to go back to business as usual while Main Street finds itself mired in a political cold war that may extend far beyond January 20th and the inauguration of the 46th president of the United States.