Winter has become one of my favorite seasons here in Valencia. Although the stream of tourists prowling our streets never really ceases completely things eventually start to quiet down near the winter solstice as most travelers return to their Northern shores in preparation for celebrating Christmas with their families. For us traders however week #51 marks one of the busiest earning periods of the year as the historical odds usually are in our favor. But of course not always!
Holiday weeks have a tendency to juice equity markets with extra volatility and Thanksgiving week apparently is no exception, at least judging by the statistics. And the one chart that stands out this morning is that of the weekly SKEW on the S&P500:
If week #47 would have an avatar then it’s that of a lowly white collar office worker who punches the clock every morning, takes extended lunch breaks, shirks any responsibilities or deadlines, and generally keeps its head down as to not get noticed by that cunty ball breaker called Lucy in HR.
November is upon us and I’ve got more monthly stats than you can shake a stick at. In a nutshell it’s a good month for the bulls unless they drop the ball which seems to happen once or twice per decade. So far we seem to be at cruising altitudes but the past two years have taught me to not get too comfortable and simply rely on historical statistics. Alas here they are: