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Realized Versus Implied Volatility
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Realized Versus Implied Volatility

by The MoleJuly 25, 2018

People talk about volatility all the time and often talk about completely different things. So I’m going to walk you through the basics. First of all we need to differentiate between realized volatility (or often referred to as historical volatility) and implied volatility.

Realized Volatility

Let’s start with realized volatility it’s more intuitive to most people. It represents to the magnitude of the actual price movement in a particular financial instrument over a defined period. So what RV expresses is the range of the price swings in that period.

Let me give you an example. If the S&P goes from 2,800 to 2,900 in a week then that represents an advance of 100 handles or 3.6%. And if it then goes from 2900 to 2950 the week after, then that represents an advance of 50 handles or 1.7%.

Okay, so far so good. Now if the S&P goes from 2950 to 2975 the following week then that’s another advance of 25 handles or 0.8%. Finally the week after we have yet another advance of 5 handles from 2975 to 2985 or 0.3%.

Signed Returns

By the way, mathematicians, financial analysts, or quant traders don’t ever talk about drops or advances, they simply refer to them as signed returns. And signed of course means that the number can be either positive or negative. Keep that in mind for later.

By calculating the percentages we basically create what is called ‘normalized returns’ or ‘log returns’. That allows us to measure all variables in a comparable metric. Alright, now let’s look at the series of log returns: we have 3.6, 1.7, 0.8, and 0.3.

You may have noticed that the returns are getting smaller, and although the S&P has gone from 2800 to 2975 in four weeks, it’s doing it in ever-smaller intervals. If we calculate the difference between each consecutive log return (the percentages) then we get to -1.9, -0.9, and -0.5.

This is only one among many ways of measuring realized volatility, but in any case it clearly is dropping. So this exercise may give you an idea why we bother to look at realized volatility in the first place.

If we plot this series as a graph as shown above then we quickly grasp that the vehemence of the rally is diminishing and that perhaps a correction lies ahead.

Implied Volatility

In contrast to historical volatility, implied volatility aims to look ahead. It is often interpreted as the market’s expectation for future volatility of a stock and is implied by the price of that stock’s options. Here “implied volatility” means it is not observable in the market but can be derived from the price of an option.

In simple terms, implied volatility or IV is determined by the current price of option contracts on a particular stock or future. It is represented as a percentage that indicates the annualized expected one standard deviation range for the stock based on the option prices. And for that reason that number is unsigned, meaning it’s always a positive number.

For example, an IV of 25% on a $200 stock would represent a one standard deviation range of $50 over the next year. Did I just blow your mind? Suddenly all those magic numbers on your option chain start making sense! 😉

Standard Deviation

Okay, so what does ‘standard deviation’ mean? We covered this on several occasions here but let’s do it one more time for the noobs. In statistics, one standard deviation is a measurement that encompasses approximately 68.2% of outcomes.

When it comes to IV, one standard deviation means that there is approximately a 68% probability of a stock settling within the expected range as determined by that stock’s option prices. In the example of our $200 stock with an IV of 25%, it would mean that there is an implied 68% probability that the stock is between $150 and $250 over the coming year.

By the way, volatility doesn’t increase linearly with time, so the monthly number is not 1/12 of the annual estimate but rather ~1/3.5 the monthly number. So again for the example above. if the annualized IV of our stock was 25% then you can expect roughly a 30-day IV of ~7.1%.

And why does any of that matter?

Because options essentially came into existence as insurance contracts, and when the future of an asset becomes more uncertain, there is more demand for insurance on that asset. When applied to stocks, this means that a stock’s options will become more expensive as market participants become more uncertain about that stock’s performance in the future.

When the uncertainty related to a stock increases and the option prices are getting more expensive, IV will increase. This is sometimes referred to as an “IV expansion.” On the opposite side of IV expansion is “IV contraction.” This occurs when the fear and uncertainty related to a stock diminishes. As this happens, the stock’s options decrease in price, which results in a decrease in IV.

In summary, IV is a standardized way to measure the risk premium (vega) charged on the options of a stock.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Richard Adler

    Thank you Mole.

  • daverg

    ty for clearing that up, next up IV rank, 1 vs 2 SD, time to expires, etc etc etc

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Great stuff Mole. Thanks.

  • Brishort

    Hello Mole!

    Nice clarification above for noobs.

    If I may add a metaphor:

    IV vs RV is like going to a flea market and trying to deal a product to a totally irrational seller (the option seller)

    The implied volatility is the “invoice amount” for the product your purchased which is based on the emotional dealings of the moment with the option seller.

    The realized volatility is actually when you go back home (“home” being the option expiry date) and discover on the internet the real worth of what you actually purchased at the flea market….

    Unsure if this will help anyone in their understanding, but if you made it this far reading, you cannot unread it…. so your now stuck with it! :p

  • Brishort

    I am very slow replying, so here is my answer to Ian’s question from the Turtle post Monday

    Re: “I’m interested in how you describe Bitcoin as black and white tv…it was the first smart contract platform.”

    Interesting that you picked up on this. Actually happy you did.

    I would shortly describe the 3 following as starting elements of why the black and white reference, i.e., Bitcoin does what it does extremely well. It is just not “features rich” enough. Areas of future focus would include:

    – Bitcoin can do smart contracts, but space per block/scale is cruelly missing in the infrastructure. Difficult to see how it can underpin any long term infrastructure as is. It is the most expensive computing power you can buy, that makes it impossible to justify on large scale projects for any smart contracts. Because you need to cherry pick extremely precisely what you want to put on it, you add friction to usage, which intrinsically reduces future potential The integration with off-chains, alt chains or virtual chains is not mature enough yet. Hybrids chains are most likely infrastructure needed for public trust creation. Bitcoin would need a “retrofit” to absorb hybrid chains. Better start off from scratch elsewhere (hence the color tv reference, whereby the content was dependent on a new color streaming infrastructure, cameras, antennas, tvs. etc…)

    – Capacity is still an issue. Lightning and other tricks to make it faster all come with trade-offs.that cannot be “renovated” in the existing Bitcoin, most likely better if a new blockchain is engineered from scratch.

    – And finally privacy. Monero has the right view on this with ring signatures. Ring signatures are probably the most important element every blockchain not currency based will need for privacy. If blockchain technology is to notably underpin all the ID system of the future, it needs new and future tools for properly proving privacy, yet facilitate efficient private exchanges.

    The difference with currency based: let’s not kid ourselves. Once blockchain is mature, everything currency related is one regulation away from disaster. Blockchain can be the government tool for perfect taxation via 100% transparency of all value exchanged, just like bitcoin currently does. Therefore, gov’s will move there, just because it will be the most convenient taxation tool. And just as our tax reports are “voluntary self declaration”, we will have to report our “perfect taxation, gov authorized blockchain of choice for payment use” annually on our tax returns and gov. will have 100% transparency in our net taxable amounts and money usage…. not my preferred scenario, but a realistic outcome most likely.

    Hence the view that a better all encompassing technology will absorb those concerns and be the future blockchain “4k color tv” of the future.

    Blockchain has now passed the threshold of “mass awareness”. It still has steps to go for “mass adoption”.

    That’s the genesis of my black and white 4k analogy.
    Thanks for asking!

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Great post, Mole!

  • StockTalker

    Out of /ZW, good lord.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s quite a coaster you picked.
    Nighthawk, North Carolina.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-PGQTyO70w

  • StockTalker

    -2 /CL now

  • HD

    looking left, 540 is a big level IMO

  • HD

    Nice blog Mole.

  • StockTalker

    Ya, might wait for a pull back.

  • StockTalker

    Could be the day, things looking iffy

  • StockTalker

    Crude puked nicely there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    some big volume on the hourly.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=h1

  • HD

    !!! unreal. I really dig your trading style. You seem to be in the right place at the right time A LOT. kudos

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST Watching USO at 14.51
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS and HD Shorts Yes ! IMO SPX is cooked
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot tqqq

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark I would keep a tight rein on that one
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Took profit and am short again, think a W# is about to begin here. Very typ price action before a major move.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Yesterday 31.11 just 13 cents above my target. Love this action
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep…stop past breakeven this point.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST I am short oil too
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Don’t be long:)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Thanks For The Post. Good Job Chief !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    resistance becomes support
    until the red line is crossed to the downside, say two full candles below.
    nothing will convince me.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/857b44d6d9ad6237cf86adaa44de5d57676e86d296aa0fd65a44f16907bda9b8.png
    -GG

  • HD

    Nice trades!

  • StockTalker

    Exhaustion gap, if a sell of does not show up today kiss QQQ puts goodbye. Let the force be with you

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I wanted to short the SOX, but the QQQ’s were strong. that makes it a no go in my book.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks HD GLD now showing some life
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Market is very vulnerable right now, anything can happen and fast.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a tweet here, a TWEET there, suddenly, we’re talking REAL MONEY.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST YUP ! Julie is positioned !
    JULIE

  • HD
  • StockTalker

    Piled on /CL, -4 here

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST I am with ya !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Daily VIX stuck below middle band, usual hammer point, dropping away in 3,2,1….. ready to drop my TVIX entry at yesterdays close 36, near 36, maybe 35.7…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d81b45803a2f67d7a8c41fdce90076155424caad7c759d97380e9b7c805c288.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BKXtoZERO

    Scalping TVIX always reminds me of the original War of the Worlds movie. You get positioned, you are up, then they just keep coming after your stop. In the end, some simple germs stopped them. Sheeez https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dea2210722966bd4edadad832e13b614bdbfd29bb5ae0a0edf026dfda04fdaf7.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, banded below last months’ support so appearing unlikely to break out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $RUT A possible triple top … Breaks below support and lower trend lines “Bye Bye American Pie ”
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a890ee541692bfee3edc3859cedf66ef384b5e9d8f8dd0b6f76649e2a9230281.png

  • StockTalker

    Nice ride coming our way cougar:) This is a sucker move.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EOD will probably short BAC … Very strong resistance 31.16.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    smart enough to know the original. nobody fools Shinnick!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Banking Index $BKX Very vulnerable Bearish close below it’s 5 ema and lower trend lines Won’t Be Good ! Watching closely BAC strong resistance 31.16 and setting up to short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e7cc1108b816bdb0439ec7d9eb62836b0a0256723f7916fe7b798f606d7ba1c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Update on my possible winning of thoroughbred colt. I have a trainer lined up in Bozeman Yup A racehorse trainer. Friday I will know if I won the contest as I am in the top five. My husband is in total shock.If I win Santa Anita here we come ! Can’t wait !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    any chance of Del Mar?
    I’d come visit then!!!

    https://www.dmtc.com/images/tickets/admission/paddock.jpg

  • StockTalker

    Q’s puts were at breakeven today, now down but am anticipating some selling. added to my /NQ position, -3 now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I picked up some QQQ calls.
    =P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yeah GG Del Mar too. You will be with us GG ! Seattle too Emerald Downs and BK can be with us
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup GG ! LOL ! Love it GG !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Then all you have to do is feed him, house him, and pay vet bills 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    LOL…. you r 1 funny dude.

  • StockTalker

    Oh boy, lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s a beast!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Talked with an accountant too Big tax liability.Average price at he would command at an auction We can handle it
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    YUP ! First Choice !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HayBurner!
    plop plop

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    [starts looking for a flight ticket]

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Don’t forget, we have a Friday FULL MOON for you loonies out there.

    personally, I’m just looking for a mother of all Squeezes.
    and “Tuna on Toast”.

  • StockTalker

    C’mon bears take this bitch on!

  • HD

    Friday Q2 GDP est +3.9%

  • StockTalker

    I really like the changes TDA has made to there mobile app.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS took remaining profit at the 55 ema will re short a lower high
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    ooooh.. my psychotic sister does a pretty damm good job at that :/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO going up into my 14 .51 target 50% retracement and baseline(21) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ecb5dafd19572fd747c32136a31a1d41501837dfaa8dd6b6d72bc1beb6b500b.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some short term upside looking to appear pretty soon here…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Top of parallel channel and resistance. Posted previous a 30.98 target high 13 cents above at 31.11 Getting ready to short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cf32ea823514441e4fc3d171f6803f363c45f4611b6cbde95a545e844a74a79.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Basic system or did you download mobile trading ap?

  • HD

    Is the name “Morning Wood” taken?

  • StockTalker

    Mobile trading app, they have now included expiration dates and calendar. Also an indicator for remaining days on options.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD IMO heading for the declining tops line and declining 55 ema per positive https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e245f377fecbd3421906ab4298bc6ff3e421694087234ae2a8709347df301cad.png divergences RSI and MACD JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Short Taking profits at the 21 ema retaining 1/2 short stop now 201.17
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    There goes crude oil, that should get things moving. Interesting animal

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST USO 3 cents shy of my 14.51 target and pulling back Get it on “Bears”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Small caps and mid caps Daily charts at baseline (21) and top of Ichi Cloud. Must rally now
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    11:11
    off to lunch!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I took some time today to put this educational post together as I didn’t want to post yet another boring update on this summer of churn. Tomorrow I won’t be posting as I have a project to attend to, I’ll see you guys on Friday.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks for your hard work Chief See you on Friday
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    Today’s post was excellent.

  • StockTalker

    Kind of needs to at this level, again at 62 retrace on the dow. If not, in will be a long summer for the bears again.

  • StockTalker

    Retest on the Q’s, see where it goes from here.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST USO declines as I think it will 13.66 is target
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Time for a late day sell off.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Stopped out of tvix for 0.20 loss… Seems like epic squeeze. Maybe I will make a killing on the move from 5 to 12 again.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Coffee Break after winning the Belmont Stakes … Another Triple Crown Winner setting course records . A much deserved rest and washing.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a325532073543ca73eec7d4dfc6371f7852ab340e94c205013cf247849a2cc76.png

  • HD

    What price did the sell
    Off start in February? SPX

  • topedge

    thank you

  • StockTalker

    High was 2873

  • HD

    Correct that was January, February was 2835 so I will scale in.

  • HD

    FibWAP is currently 2825.50

  • StockTalker

    There is your stop run folks, get it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Woohooo – off she goes!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone buying the mid and small caps here ? SPY OBV not impressive
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Was there some news in the past 2 mins?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Little observation on market weather…. The sell the peak move yesterday was just to draw in some bears…. When they didn’t allow even a normal sized correction….word yo the wise was straight up… Feb high not far away….so that is almost guaranteed…. Probably more. At some point tvix will be a nice scalping tool again during distribution phase….lots of drops n recoveries

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes…free fried bear kabobs

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    boo-yah.

    “this .. is my religion”

    https://youtu.be/u3k7lykTWTk?t=222

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..while supplies last.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX is there top of channel … Going to be interesting now JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/badbac5c38f47c6f84c51b0ba8bce49129c82ac7635c53ff2271bdb27ecdf717.png

  • StockTalker

    /NQ, top is in

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST SPX short definitely a dump below the 5 ema and associated trend lines JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bbd5d81e209ecd6fa295482b69fe44f3e0e95281f42a426cb755fcdff2503ace.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    party pooper! how bout a little bit more?!
    RSI 70, is that too much to ask?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/463cd380ec0b450b10308a887ffff7320325b9f6461a976a6c4e215dd5743e3b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG one of their ploys is to gap it up and over the upper channel trend line . That is a possibility tomorrow … Your RSI 70 is possible
    JULIE

  • HD

    “News doesn’t matter” pfff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s very close. We can smell it. I look to Master Mole typically.
    but he’s out till FRiday??

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    top is in calls are killing your followers….have mercy

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, I’m going to bed 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, here’s a little puzzler for you guys – you have all of tomorrow to think about this and offer an response: Stock ABC is trading at $100, its IV is at 25%. You plan on selling 30-day puts (front month) and of course want them to expire worthless. What is your strike price?

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes but he won’t tell Leechez til after the event 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    keep Hope alive.

  • ridingwaves

    FB holders getting brow beat….I see a rebound play if gap is filled at 159 to provide maximum pain…

    Facebook Inc.
    AFTER HOURS
    Last Updated: Jul 25, 2018 at 5:44 p.m. EDT
    Delayed quote
    $171.91
    -45.59 -20.96%
    After Hours Volume: 16.8M
    CLOSE CHG CHG %
    $217.50 2.83 1.32%

  • ridingwaves

    I think its going to hit it, blood

  • BKXtoZERO

    The quick answer is that any put I ever bought expired worthless

  • Yoda
  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in 3x reverse fang rtf. Fngd. Bought more today at 22… Other entry 23.5. He he he he

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can see tomorrows headline… Trump Trade Triumph Trumps Facebook Flub

  • HD

    Dude! killer 100 handle hit NQ- I’d say you are dialed in. See you bright and early.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Taking a shot. 25% IV would be a range of 75 to 125 for 100$ stock. One month is the 1/3.5 or 7% you mention. So 7% would be a strike of 93$.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    did the IV boys get that correct? 22% wowza

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys a quick chart while dinner is cooking MSFT This could be it Mr Softie top of Raff Regression channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01e4e94133d4ceb868f681b1a1f203a07805c08d3505d35409792d43775cb9ea.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    The Gerb had a pretty good tip for me. TVIX does look a lot more like bullish consolidation after I adjusted my monitor as suggested. Thanks GG! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5121adc893c902a820cb50e9f13eb0303d00510c59e070ca28dacc53e2152324.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice guitars!

    (too many indicators)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, you would choose a strike < that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    EXACTLY – and you aren’t alone.

  • StockTalker

    AMZN reports after close today, should be interesting. Back to back will crush /the /NQ:)

  • StockTalker

    IMO the /NQ will get smacked hard today, where I will take profit and try a long at close for AMZN.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Anybody else notice the Zero has a bunch of blue arrows on yesterday’s plot that weren’t there yesterday? Lower right panel seems to have more whipsaw and is not as smooth as yesterday. Is there data missing from the input? Something else? Can it be trusted today?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of FANG short FNGD at 24,2 from 23.5 and 22. A little joy in mudville. It has been a while…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice trade shorting NQ. I went after FANGs, figured they were over ripe.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some fang long.

  • BKXtoZERO

    maybe ST is right and AMZN will get crushed too…. hard to say.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zero is on 1 min intervals which is probably causing all the blue arrows to appear

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If you need some Cliff Notes, give me a ring. good stuff, good supplier.
    “tight. tight. TIGHT!”
    😉

    https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/images/2018/03/56536_implied-volatility-bell-curve-standard-deviation.png.png

  • StockTalker

    Shall see, took half profit last night. Now pounding the /YM.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You’re Welcome.
    always trying to be a value-add Leech.
    😉

  • Yoda

    Right panel shows 1 min candles instead of 5 min ones

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yep, that would do it. Normally on 5 min intervals. Wonder why the change?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    FNGU?? I don’t mean anything bad to you, that is the ticker??

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, last 3 days demonstrates insatiability, as though that insanity must blow-off horribly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Heheheheee 🙂

    Love it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Remember annualized. It’s ~$2.9 over the next 30 days.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You don’t see the message on it??

  • Mark Shinnick

    Anyone have an idea of how margined FB happened to be?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WTF – the post it doesn’t show. SORRY – that never happened before…

  • StockTalker

    Dollar back on track

  • StockTalker

    That is beautiful, nice 5w pattern to complete.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dude, just divide by 3.5 – didn’t you read my post?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damn interesting the short vol trade is pushing against local highs since early Feb.

  • StockTalker

    Time to let some air out, back too -4 /NQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh I did, 3 times!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    ah I see it now. I dont like the 1 min intervals. Way too much noise!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I don’t like the 1 min due to the noise and loss of clarity. I’m not fast enough on the trigger to trade a 1 min chart anyway.

    That said, I can see where it might have value for someone that wanted to catch local minima and maxima on a short time frame.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes. 🙂 Note HY scene and short vol pushing into high since Feb.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so I get the 7.1% part.
    $100 * 25% * SQRT (30/365) = ~7.1%

    it’s the 1/3.5 estimate – it’s a non-linear moving target!

    https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/images/2018/03/56536_implied-volatility-30-60-90-day-results.png.png

  • Yoda

    Mole, I prefer the 5 min candles on the zero’s right panel. Divergences are more pronounced on the 5 min, reducing the tape “noise” and resulting trading traps

  • StockTalker

    /NKD concerns me a bit here, not in the program today.

  • StockTalker

    Wonder how much $$ Zuck took a hit on today?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m certain there’s some experienced money manager behind the scenes.

  • StockTalker

    Ya, poor guy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hanging out with Darth Vader, you know it!

    https://expreso.press/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/mark.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    700 acres on the North Shore? nothing like RE. location, location, location. it should keep it’s value.

    https://secure.i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03071/CP0G74_3071628b.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    He already sold a lot of stock, recently too

  • Yoda

    not enough

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so I should be looking for that A wave down, right?
    😉

  • HD

    Poor guy is only as rich as he was way back in May. Lost 2 months of unrealized gains. .618, to the penny, caught it. All of 2017 supply is there too. Below would really clear up the EW.

  • StockTalker

    Looking for a similar phenomena in the dow here. She has reached max velocity.

  • StockTalker

    Take note that the 10yr is approaching that 3% mark again. Nervous participants here, steady as she goes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Apparently this F’book drop is bigger than the ol’Intel 2000 drop.
    could be an omen..
    a toast, to Zuck!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30085bbe05a4d1233e33e705a7fb839041b9b97ca47cbc541b05ddf4692a5fec.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I put on some TVIX this morning, 35.9, managed my stop and am in…. if it sticks may leave it on for AMZN

  • StockTalker

    Hehe, not an omen but reality creep.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    everybody is looking at Zuck, but GOOG, maybe a little more to run.
    it’s all very iffy this week.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b836934d2ef1dc3b196b02f73f0ad630c806a34e734a23b846a517f89382d59c.png
    (maybe a baby abandoned top?)
    could be a good risk:reward on a matching gap down result.

  • StockTalker

    Greed is always the trigger to a crash.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “that which is cast down, must first be raised”.

    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/32/21/1d/32211d5de529ef91b91bec731be3cbbc.jpg

  • StockTalker

    /NQ to retest, no gap fill today folks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    looks like the Greecians are being attacked. be on the lookout for.

    https://i.imgur.com/Ielu1kd.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s not really an estimate – it’s rounding. 1 / 0.287 = ~3.5

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WHAT’s going on?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I’ll switch it back tomorrow. Cool?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    82 DEAD in Athens.
    where’s the freaking fire fighters!!?

  • ds2

    Note on the 1 min blue reversal arrows – not such a fan. I think it’s too fast but I will keep looking at it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m giving you a plus one for actually talking.

    don’t be shy.

  • HD

    GG, PHX buddy texted
    Me his overnight low was 102*. Record 116* yesterday. Says golf is cheap. Ha.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I like to sit outside around 10pm and star gaze.
    100* in the dark, 2 hours after sunset. Not gonna happen.
    it’s a scorcher alright.

  • Yoda

    Yes please

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Taking profits remaining 1/2 short . Showed MSFT last night and to watch the Raff Regression Channel Possibly on the mark JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e24a3da9b1db28c8b243d409a04bc6b6bd86fa7a0cd54826a1356b9242f4bf2.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Did an experiment last month trying hard to ignite tree bark; amazing insulating stuff.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Interesting. care to explain *this*!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uVnx7Qyp8g

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Stated 31.16 very strong resistance. Getting ready to short. Love it !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Looking over the FANG did an EW count for $GOOG. It stands out IMO. Impressive impulse. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e8920ca29d5a23768dfb4efa9bbf0334afe8b6b377f670924803edbbd58932e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD $GOOG a developing parabola Just saying HD
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I also look at slopes more than waves, when you see a few different rising trends, then a vertical ramp, that is parabola, so anything under the fast rising line is done.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok. so can you give the turn date?
    TIA

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    When Mary had a little lamb the doctor was surprised
    But when Old MacDonald had a farm the doctor almost died
    From the third grade LOL ! A friend of mine has a third grader 4th grade this fall
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Would short it now, picked up a few lottery tickets myself.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Retired at 45?

    (too soon?)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Simple, the tree was so distraught about Trump becoming president that it instantly committed suicide. Instantly in tree time of course means 18 months…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you should really *branch* out your talents!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Of course…spontaneous combustion.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Ill let the market tell me when that wave terminates.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • HD

    So what is the IV for weekly SPY calls w GDP on deck?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I would think that depends on the strike price & expiry.

    EDIT: around 10% for Aug 03’s. 283 CALLS.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options?p=SPY&date=1533254400

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hey…no politics…

  • HD

    If my math is correct it looks like they are pricing a 34 point move

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    11:11 with 222 comments.

    Off to Lunch!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD What have you for $RUT.? I see a completed impulse from April
    JULIE

  • HD

    This is a new way of looking at things for me. But will have both ideas and see how it unfolds. Weekly vs monthly call and the IV for both. Similar 1.22% and 1.39%

  • HD

    This is just me but I do not look at the RUT. Sideshow. jmo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO Safety of the DOW and Large Caps … Rally almost over Just Saying HD
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    Jack and Jill
    went up the hill
    they each had a buck and a quarter.
    Jill came down with $2.50 …

    compliments of the Dice man I think …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Last phrase
    Did they really go after the water ?
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX This a.m I thought they would gap it up and over the upper channel trend line This did not occur. Drooling awaiting trend line and support breaks JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6207701cb73fdfffa8f4dc9f782b40580b95732387f194b8cad6523fa318b37.png

  • HD

    I’m not one to argue w a cougar 😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL!
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Impression here is equities are a bit spent, may need a cold dip for refreshment.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m going to have to join forces with STockTalker.
    Naz is signaling, ever so slightly *shock* ..to the downside.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0dac8986515fd6991260e690e0f26af2f0e4492fc257fa4e26714db98966f152.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t hold overnight, and I don’t enter Fridays, so this is a good thing for me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Friday’s are usually neutral to positive
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Wednesdays are the big day, (FED) with Thursday following.

  • HD

    Possibly. The buy program or news hit yesterday in the last 1/2 hour on the 2835 pivot. That pivot has held today. Time to focus for the EOD and Friday set up. GL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPY,
    I’d thought we’d be at the upper Keltner by now, ah well.

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p96200593079&r=1532632546531

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • StockTalker

    Here we go bears!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST SPY at upper channel per SPX chart below .. Unable to make a higher high on less volume. C’mon Bears. Now is their chance ! GRRRR !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice chart GG Thanks !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Dammit, just can’t seal the deal.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it looks nice, but time is skewed/distorted big time. don’t let it fool you.
    *for entertainment only

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG IMO last 15 min very telling Just Saying GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    look at the whole day. IMHO, a shock and stall.
    it went nowhere essentially.
    wouldn’t the evil plan be to sell fear into close.
    open higher tomorrow, and then pull the plug?

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Craaaaaap.

  • StockTalker

    Pull the plug AH

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Max Nice to see you
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Think she tanks after reporting, market is in motion. Stops in

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    in alignment with a full moon? 😉
    Inconceivable!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gut check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +1 for the stops. I have no solid idea about the tank part.

  • StockTalker

    Lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    any time I think the Market is all staked out, I go check the dollar.
    it’s like dancing on ice. slippery!

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC 31.16 very strong resistance. entering a very small short position on resistance and https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f25e3aa8003b97da89bd358e0dca1973088ded33b866cbbd669344d39347e183.png bearish piercing candle pattern. Selling volume light. A quickie trade with the confluence of support and Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) as a target 30.33 JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A white Rhino ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Will also monitor the daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Uhhhh…pretty much extinct…huh?

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Pound the “Hell out of them with a decline below the 21 ema down to lower Bol Band then a shorter high on a bounce up to the declining 21 ema. That scenario and a lower high are the true shorts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OOPPs Reply above BK
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    JUN, yes.
    JULY, premature {ahem}

    EDIT: where’s August?, ya’tease!

  • bankwalker

    /NQ jumping around like a scalded hound … 10 and 20 point moves in seconds ….

  • RoastBeeph

    AMZN killed it

  • maxcherry

    and the sell-off, judging by futures

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • RoastBeeph

    AMZN almost doubled their expected earnings per share, $2.48 expected EPS, actual $5.07 EPS.

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..nothing burger.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nothing Burger with onions….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    so it was …..(wait for it)…..Priced In!!!
    ;-D

  • Ladywandering

    I like the idea of the 1 minute zero. Would like to see it for a few days though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    where have you been!?
    we were about to send a search party out.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Aerospace & Defense ETF.
    Because there are no sextuple tops.
    [ITA]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ITA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64566422595

  • mSquare

    Sure there are – isn’t this an example in the making?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Confirmation Bias!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all the excitement, how could we forget BTC?

    https://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=BTCUSD&tf=m5

  • Ladywandering

    Hahaha. I’ve been a lurker.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The response thus far has been mixed. I wish I could fit another panel on that screen.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Apologies guys but I won’t be able to post today. I’ve run into a pressing technical issue I need to resolve today.

  • StockTalker

    Stop run exercise yesterday, remain to be short, sell the news in play me thinks. Crude oil still farting around but should see movement today. Goog puts are up

  • Yoda

    hey Mole. 3 panels works for me

  • Darkthirty

    Full blood moon eclipse……………… : O

  • BKXtoZERO

    Plying my craft today…. TVIX 35.75

  • StockTalker

    TWTR

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems a bit overdue for some pop. Short vol sure knocking at resistance, however.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • StockTalker

    hehe

  • StockTalker

    /NQ break of 7400 will bring the bears back to feed.

  • StockTalker

    They usually pop up during slaughtering season:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Awesome 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m really sorry for not posting today. I realized that my PayFlow CC processing module wasn’t working as expected. So I just set up stripe and will have to migrate some of my subs over in the coming weeks. It’s a big PITA … but it had to be done.

  • BKXtoZERO

    you almost missed P3 turd of a turd

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ll never forgive myself!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I said it would be an interesting week.
    ..I got lucky.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d0be4e33d22e4d8de9a37d3b63859a89e7603b3ef1ab08440272e3b9793aed2b.png

    “Survival was my only hope, success my only revenge.”

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was joking…. hope you know.

  • BKXtoZERO

    you and Julie must be happy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think Julie is, a glass of wine, a pile of money, and some silly wildlife and she’s all good. LOL.

    I’m just glad I’ve had Evil Spec as a safe harbor. Only traders ‘get’ other traders.

  • StockTalker

    Just started

  • StockTalker

    /NQ will get ugly today.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Many previous sightings like Bigfoot

  • StockTalker

    Lol, hope you are ready for a sighting:)

  • HD

    Q2 GDP 4.1 USA! and it came with a conference call.

  • HD

    “We’ve accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”

  • BKXtoZERO
  • StockTalker

    QQQ puts back on track, let r rip.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    longest eclipse in a century and Mars closest in 15 years.

  • StockTalker

    Exactly why an event like this will occur, bc at this point everyone is all in. You are living proof, thank you!

  • StockTalker

    170 next stop

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “wouldn’t the evil plan be to sell fear into close.
    open higher tomorrow, and then pull the plug?

    Happy Full Moon, Eclipse traders!!!

    https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2018/07/25/ap_18031645255986_custom-ac0a335fa5fd405f54b35195e7d46156ddacee6e-s800-c85.jpg

    correlation does not equal causation, but that’s the way to bet. (™)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the median is at 174.5, got to watch out for that.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Catch a Wave…. Evil plan for today is to try to catch a wave and ride it https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69f7967e989665701b84b90777d7129f648f207c66f581174010e1026d961302.jpg

  • HD

    $SPX 2829.73 will overlap, 2-4 TL just below at 25 and rising.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    have a plan, trade the plan, you’re the man.

  • BKXtoZERO

    very simple plan for a simple man… series of higher highs, draw a rising slope and exit on a break of the slope.

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Many under water now, curse the pigs they are. Say goodbye to GOOG, puts just rocked. Up 122%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, I said it was “iffy”.
    IFFY it shall BE.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42686205400

  • Mark Shinnick

    Consider: HY could be headfake – last 4 days within a nominal expanded daily range. RE at inflection threshold. TY at inflection threshold. Long vol pressing resistance. “Something is up”, so stay puckered.

  • sutluc

    May I ask, do you use an initial stop loss and/or a take profit, or do you monitor continuously?

    Referencing your post further up (higher highs, rising slope).

  • StockTalker

    Time for the /YM to join the party.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Caught a Wave with TVIX….. this also goes out to RW https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=af2rY1bmfZM

  • HD

    10 handle hit from 2835 pivot. on 2-4 TL

  • BKXtoZERO

    exited half TVIX 36.55 from 35.75 (day position) leaving half on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Despite all of the cat calls, Hindenburg omens, I’m still serious, and haven’t forgotten –
    “the red line”.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/857b44d6d9ad6237cf86adaa44de5d57676e86d296aa0fd65a44f16907bda9b8.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya…. heading to Dairy Queen with my hard earned 10$

  • StockTalker

    Dip buyers will be handed their ass today. Please do

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I detect the sarcasm. Al was great at that.
    but you must be grateful grasshopper, for every oak tree begins as a seedling.
    😉

  • StockTalker

    If you are short this market we are in a breakdown of this market. Remain short the entire day.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC covered short with the bounce off the 5 ema which I stated I was going to watch for . It was a small position and made lunch money. Initial target was 30.33 the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) and a support. Will re short Love the INTC dump. MSFT A chart posted the last two days The Upper Raff Regression Channel On The Nose !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A journey of a 1,000 miles begins with a single step
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST SPX The upper channel presented in a chart shown yesterday. Always draw trend lines
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    That actually works sometimes. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ESPECIALLY in Montana without transportation.

  • StockTalker

    My market is going to breakdown here and now is my call. Buyers beware

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Seeing 175 on the Q’s

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Ending diagonals breakdown hard and fast. Yup ! Love this action. Always look for ending diagonals as they are very common
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    please…no triangles today. it’s been a long week.
    EDIT: in exchange, I will refrain from FibFans.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX An ending diagonal going exactly into the upper trend line of a parallel channel
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    The bears will attempt to put technical damage in place now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST Watch for dipsters at the 8 and 13 ema’s
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Not today! Take full advantage of this day.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG NO ! Please do not refrain from from FibFans. Love the fib arcs too !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST The upper channel line of parallel channel SPX is curtains
    JULIE

  • HD

    Stalked that wave termination for 2 weeks. Finally got paid.

    FWIW the IV study I shared yesterday had the weekly SPY’s suggesting a 34 pointer. That’s 2814

  • HD

    Great calls this week ST!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Potential for a crash today

  • StockTalker

    Only bears would know:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I told you we should keep him!
    LOL
    (I need an apprentice)

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out next 1/4 TVIX 38.13, holding the rest!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD and ST SPX Upper parallel channel and rising wedge What we was watching for HD and ST Love it ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d012d3c2c2cd8a772b3c44f918d27a8b60ce92057c16d036d281a1ea695ceec.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s old school, I would think you have a laser micrometer handy.

    http://protofab.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/zmike-300×188.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    wow…. taking it… out 39.4. Have a good weekend!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too BK !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Sit tight, real selling has not started yet.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This could be…a whole lot of no-joke multi-generational inflection going on.

  • StockTalker

    Wait for it

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield isn’t panicking. but I remember FEB. that got fast, fast.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26165655637

  • HD

    The bulls are going to count that as minute 1 up of minor 3. It was an impulse so the burden is on the sellers to close it under 2800 and start a 3 day correction or more. jmho

  • HD

    Let’s keep an eye on that. Nice find.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    she hasn’t mentioned hedgies yet..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC 30.98 was a target I posted and 31.16 very strong resistance also posted. Always draw a parallel channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/835e4f5d464a34bdcaba47c188d0227c399b3033de58fe303326da2361e7bce9.png

  • StockTalker

    We are on the same page:) Big move coming

  • StockTalker

    Remember were we are folks, this could be devastating today.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD ST GG BK Mark CHIEF Watch the Banks i.e. $BKX and DB Very important at this juncture. I mentioned previously the trouble with the mid and small caps.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you sound very confident. Given that Mole stepped out, my ears are Perked!

  • StockTalker

    GOOG puts 155%, 100 of them. Who said you never bank on them??

  • HD

    Some bears will say failed 5th and laugh at the idea of naz and rut going anywhere without the SPX AND DJI? A great test for EW and TA

  • Darkthirty

    Any viable catalyst for the drop?

  • StockTalker

    At 100% on the Q’s

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $RUT Gotta watch … Triple top with consolidation support breakdown today. Watch at the lower trend line for a dead cat bounce up to the the scene of the crime i.e. support break JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e71699ac0ce853105d3a0c5cc44f2fd8ab371fbe18be5bcde58f22a372c56206.png

  • ds2

    Mole – I like the 3 panels. Let’s try that for awhile.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $RUT Or the 89 ema matching a support not shown
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Sell you Mfer’s

  • HD

    Just my lens but there were 2 catalysts. A political one and an economy one. Some were wanting 5%+ and did not like the soybean thing in the GDP.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Dumb money is long right now.

  • Darkthirty

    So, actually, nope! Same Ol Shit……………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m glad you like it 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D 30 Over bought — Over Bullish — Distribution to Ma Pa and Joe Sixpack. Same old story again and again. Works every time
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So… did I miss anything? 😉

  • Darkthirty

    Hey! I was short……….

  • HD

    Certainly one way to look at it. Ha.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Have A Great weekend Chief and as always Thanks for your dedication and hard work
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SBUX is up, have a cup.
    😉

  • HD

    10 handle rally, looks like a good opp to keep ur hands at 10&2 o clock.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This chart for you …. Previous post below you asked about the “Hedgies” WELL They be selling in MASS ! Now below the 21 ema ! Love them “Hedgies” Swinging on them coat tails !
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a382bbf0147048c35983760e15ecdf398161611e0b0cf9ee65309f332329f17e.png

  • StockTalker

    There is 2, now for ghost busters.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s not Halloween, but I’ll toast to that.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQUEIhBt_DA

  • BKXtoZERO

    BKK to zero!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS I covered my short a little early several days ago. Now watching for a bounce lower channel meeting the 89 ema. Will not go long but will re short if a bounce occurs at this level with a target 63.58. A continued decline very strong support approx 53 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/906843c7b79b3a3f58c6cb5f68af018a0747313fcccd8876c37d81617ee9154a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..problems posting charts.
    ..problems seeing Julie’s.

    ah well, LUnch. 11:11
    till we meet again.
    -GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    What a day.I am at dance class with the kid…. Tvix ripped just in time for me to run. I am off this Friday so today is daddy daughter day https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/699b72ae2d5847cdaad8fe8eb247b9719d6cd1a681ab948194ddec1f406f6ab0.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good for you BK My husband … Saturday’s with our son and Sunday’s with our daughter
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Here is where we bank some coin. Everyone cover, lol

  • BKXtoZERO

    And evenings with you. Pretty good deal.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    He never missed anything with both our children like you BK.. Always there

  • Richard Adler

    Mole, maybe you can review zero indicator, new look, etc for subs?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Mark Shinnick

    At times like this charts like that come in handy 🙂

  • HD

    Sellers Right at 2! Locked em in

  • StockTalker

    The day is not over dear.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST I know I am short solid as a rock
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Will be taking profit after close on all /NQ related symbols. Will only hold /YM short, it will be next. Rotation

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    stop it! you’re making me cry. (sniff)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IocCC1-jeTY

  • StockTalker

    Bears will shove it down there throats the last hour.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST Bears must be careful here SPY selling volume on the light side so far
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    stick with your old Ford sweetie.
    😉

  • Yoda

    5 min zero has been negative most of the day. I count 7 touches near or under -1.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that would make a great video. ah, those were the days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the NAZ is down 1.44% while the S&P is down 0.66%
    while NAZ typically leads, this is a Tech Scare only IMHO.

    (for now)

    FB, TWTR, INTC, GOOG.
    an abandoned baby on GOOG, still a possibilitee.

  • Yoda

    If at the low we finish, there will be more bloody things to talk about than the Moon on Monday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Agreed.
    Scott might even show up on Sunday evening. (BigFoot)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RSI at 50, give it up, 50 is always a hassle!
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MSFT Let’s watch Mr Softie Guys Showed this chart two days ago to watch at the Upper Raff Regression channel. Now a bounce off the daily 13 ema and center channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cab39d84844afafe4906d4fd0211f24fc02b86333b9362ed132ce5b64558e340.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Let’s short a lower high Mr Softie
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Excellent, most excellent.

    I’m going to go silent now. Have a good weekend guys, you’ve earned it

    I leave you with, a chilling reminder of Tech.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5dc1eee35204b100e48368f03eb886ca44e1bf3365f95928d2b004bf1e74c940.png
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Have A Great Weekend Thanks for your charts !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Working another 10 handle rally #timestamps
    IPA and donut time.

  • Yoda
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today’s bounce (dipsters) off the 13 ema and lower trend line. A close above the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) at 2821.58 a plus for the bulls.Watch the close Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8a48be5451f42caa87f13e2b1774feed5c97238b159e742f0074aa763370a6a4.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BUT …. The :Hedgies not buying the dip i.e. SPX 13 ema Hang in there Bears ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cff48463a227f7c877f60b306792b3a5db0723a42fea28d3713d5dd526851ba.png

  • HD

    Didn’t even faze the equity HODL’rs.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD wait for the point of recognition HD Have A Great Weekend Thanks for everything
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    We’re off the low but hanging by a thread

  • Darkthirty

    PPT action the last 1/2 hour

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hang in there Bears Back to work Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bear profit taking (*cough cough*)

  • HD

    Julie. Let’s revisit this strategy next Thursday. Today’s range 34 poInt$ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35dd934420ab28149f24e11042aaddfbcddb87f32aaf29bff29ad7bcfbc038e4.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D 30 SPX closed below 2821.58 See SPX chart below and GVIP Bulls no can do esp on a Friday which they should have been able to do Have A Great Weekend D 30 and thanks for your contributions
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    whoa whoa whoa, I didn’t authorize republishing of my content.
    😉

  • Darkthirty

    Time it out……bears aren’t that punctual

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OK HD You the man
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Is that a ten year chart?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One last chart Guys Possible GLD bottom process RSI and MACD positive divergences. GLD needs a bullish close above it’s 5 ema and upper trend line of a bullish falling wedge JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0dc3c931b1097e9d62f94d71833d5e6339727ad68fa78e91639f6d651bc0d724.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD 7 trading days prior … Initiation volume Yeah !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    6 months. Daily.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys You had better read this …. Seriously …. Fundamental comparison with price comparison . 94% correlation with 1937. For those of you who do not know what happened with the market 1937 Clue — Huge Bear Market JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef68a88ea0c45b0efa3475c5a9ab4f7a4ee5113f42799d95dbbe30d431fb126c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Google Ray Dalio 1937 analog
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I dunno – I’m seeing a lot of bearishness in the usual watering holes over the past few days and that makes me sort of BULLISH 😉

    For me it’s all about price levels. Once those go out I’m starting to think bear. Until then it’s all just mental masturbation – we’ve been literally tens of thousands of these doomsday announcements/warnings over the past decade. Yes, and one of those days they will be right. In the interim I keep banking coin by just following the tape.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what Mole said.
    It’s heartening that you are looking out for the group. I too use to scoop this stuff up.
    But you cannot afford to digest this on a constant basis. You must have your own system that you have confidence in.

    February looked really bad. P3 was upon us. But where are we now? EVEN HIGHER.
    Can you afford to constantly monitor the doomers and ‘pattern matchers’?

    In order to reduce my carbon footprint, I recycle graphs.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c9b8e9fdc6377472a49a1fdc1fa5e85336041fcf4ea9a80948a2db5cc6cb645.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Maybe there is hope for you yet! 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m sounding more and more like Scott! (god help us)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    What? you’re slacking on the weekend? good luck with that.

    FaceBook, I have a speculative idea on the weekly.
    In an attempt to pull another ‘Autozone’. 158-168
    ..watch the RSI.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a660f4f0b53c6be133e90a271a8113802f4d1248ef1223c2dceb40e65903984.png
    -GG

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehehe…. I can’t believe that was four years ago. Jeeezzz… how time flies. We are getting old!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, I think our life blood is liquidity….so long as we have that, we have a viable Game.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… so far I’d rather be you! That last entry was a tough one and you are still riding it? I saw your stop going up. Very nice example Sir!

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… I mostly scalp. I respect their ability to do anything. I learned the hard way.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Let’s see what GS does here overbought with declining volume. GS at resistance ; 144 ema ; 38.2% retracement and upper Raff Regression Channel. I say SPLAT JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f6b54c59d3c19235109eb819802a6815b288678baf6656fbe8c0b4138533991.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh, the evil stock will likely go a little higher,
    and then somewhat lower.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82fac7194eaccab04db08316fd67906d7ae675d0583a07fd5c07016882539150.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG GS A decline now we watch volume – momentum and the 38.2% retracement matching the 21 and 55 ema’s approx 231. A break below 231 the Evil One in some real trouble as it will break below the lower channel trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4867805012d27a8f1e1570353f069f518ec4b2034c4d4391f0b6d6214bcb7b3f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG We really like Perkins (Sunday breakfast) and Yes Montana Ale Works
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG GS Getting close to a fib arc too WITH the lower Bollinger Band now turned up JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/673572b08192e89f7d00f2519f0d5575ce28c0763dfa327a62f4d5495964431f.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG “The Evil One” will not win against ….. “The Grim Reaper” and Julie’s short key
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC I am drooling … Can’t wait to short BAC with a bearish close below the 5 ema One of my targets https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60dd03bc0206f4725ff105d7da4427fa46f53bc6aa93ffa82beec90ffc60ba02.png posted previously 30.98 JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Kong is at the Gate!

    only a beauty can tame this beast.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/484414543c73495c8da085e7a620030a9a0a8dd6bc21d8fbea869e493df4f867.png
    as a kid, I loved the classic. such drama, such feats!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvD3X3RcK3Y

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG $RUT and Mid Caps https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a5df21973f4c71a22a6d9b6ce1f23103746221a60487bb358676eac348cc158.png not so hot either Also SPX Daily PMO at an overbought level and appears to have topped See thumbnail JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    one day does not make a trend. are there any reporting s this week?…to continue the tech slide?…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not sure GG But I am sure many eyes on MSFT I showed this chart I believe last Thursday. Friday’s bounce 13 ema and center Raff Channel. I think we can nail a lower high GG JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/608ba79f41a9130c2af62264dd3309803ef1b551d4b751296f5446d06403c295.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    YUP GG ! Love the INTC Dumpus Uranus !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ChipZilla is dead man walking. talked to some old friends. secret layoffs still occurring. should continue now, that stock price drops some more.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget the gap at $40

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I too have been talking with old friends. Layoffs before their Sabbaticals . Very disgruntled and overworked The usual INTC way. My husband worked many Intel jobs. He was underneath a raised floor working and a conference taking place. Unreal what he heard the scathing remarks and everyone placing blame on others. You know the blame on other shifts the usual Intel crap. YECH ! ! Also he and his tool partner came across a mattress in a hidden area where the fans are located. Unbelievable SHAME On Them. Was not used for sleeping. The things that go on Intel !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not surprised, Oregon is full of them.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, I’m not getting any younger. The only way I can see most of Montana is by air.
    It’s also an excellent way to get to my Forrest cabin.
    So I need a bunch of money. This red Draco plane is roughly a Million.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZTVw-XoKxc
    I’d call it the EvilSpeculator Express. We could ship in everybody to Julie’s hangout.
    he he he. talk about ‘droppin in’.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I worked the Aloha Campus. They gave me a nice severence package I then took a year off work and travelled with my husband. My brother and his wife took our children
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This is how we get around …. Just regular oil changes and no flight plan JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b505b51dc1bbf9724deba8bc07aef1a8f9324d6e1e82af5f13477e3890501d8c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC down to 42 ? You mentioned the gap at 40 JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t see why not.
    with it’s current 1.20 dividend, $42 would be a 2.85% yield.
    not exactly spectacular. but enough to justify short covering on the big boyz.

  • StockTalker

    -3 /CL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III