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August 21, 2020

Binding Implied Volatility

In my Wednesday post I introduced the Z-Score and also explained how we use it for scoring implied volatility, making it the IVZ-Score. What I didn’t focus on much is why one would do such a thing in the first place, and the underlying purpose may not be immediately apparent to some. Now I already can sense your eyes glazing over plus it’s Friday, so I’ll promise to make this brief and actionable for non-nonsense traders mainly interesting in turning a buck.

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August 19, 2020

Scoring Implied Volatility

The implied volatility Z-score is a way of framing implied volatility in context. For example, today SPY closed up 0.35%, which is decent but nothing compared with some of the candles over the past few months. But how normal or abnormal is it? We don’t know unless we’re able to put it in context.

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November 15, 2019

Reset Your Market Perspective

Most retail rats launch their trading endeavors (calling it a ‘career’ would be a vast exaggeration) by voluntarily checking themselves into a financial industry indoctrination camp where they are force fed a corrosive diet of nonsense such as magic candle patterns, Elliott Wave theory, moon phases, solar cycles, Bradley Turn Dates, Hindenburg Omens, etc.

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October 4, 2019

We Got The Outlier

We should probably preserve our final judgment until today’s close but I at this point I believe it’s fair to say that we most likely are looking at an outlier for week #40. Per the histogram, the SKEW, and standard deviation charts I posted on Monday we knew that there was a possibility for fireworks which made it possible for us to hedge ourselves appropriately.

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NEW! Market Statistics
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    Over the past few sessions a situation has arisen which effectively puts us at the edge of the abyss on two separate but related fronts: U.S. …
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