Most retail rats launch their trading endeavors (calling it a ‘career’ would be a vast exaggeration) by voluntarily checking themselves into a financial industry indoctrination camp where they are force fed a corrosive diet of nonsense such as magic candle patterns, Elliott Wave theory, moon phases, solar cycles, Bradley Turn Dates, Hindenburg Omens, etc.
We should probably preserve our final judgment until today’s close but I at this point I believe it’s fair to say that we most likely are looking at an outlier for week #40. Per the histogram, the SKEW, and standard deviation charts I posted on Monday we knew that there was a possibility for fireworks which made it possible for us to hedge ourselves appropriately.
In a featured comment yesterday I mentioned gamma risk in SPX and SPY options as one of the reasons explaining recent hedging activity in the VIX and ES futures. It’s a complex topic that we’ll have to peel one slice at a time. Let’s begin by considering that options in essence are multi-dimensional financial derivatives in that they exhibit sensitivity to not only price, but also time and volatility (yes interest rates as well but that’s not an issue in our current market environment).
Hello denizens of Evil Speculator! Just as Mole is off to visit his indigenous peoples of Austria, I’m back from a week of honoring my Fucks Given Reduction (FGR) process in the California desert at Lightning In A Bottle (LIB). Fresh and ready to go deep into some stuff you can actually use to trade with. As a bonus to my Cali trip, I got to spend a time in Venice with a man who goes by the moniker The Trip Advisor, who is behind-the-scene responsible for the biggest hit Post Malone has.