I often wonder whether or not Albert Einstein would have been a good trader, given his IQ of 160 and his ability to correlate seemingly mundane observations and twist them into a mind bending theory related to the inner workings of the universe. Odds have it that he most likely would have laughed at the question and balked at wasting his intellect at a silly endeavor such as predicting future price action.
Something pretty interesting happened over the weekend as I was cruising Airbnb for potential weekend get-aways here on the Iberian Peninsula. Since I’ve always been a stingy bastard I’m not ashamed to admit that I was pretty perplexed by the exorbitant prices that I simply couldn’t square with the glaring lack of demand in tourism Spain currently is experiencing. Part of that of course is due to recurring and erratic COVID-19 lock downs and various other entry restrictions here in Europe. But some of it is also purely self-inflicted as excessive price gouging over the past years already started to be a topic of contention among visitors back in 2019.
It’s Friday morning before the open and the SPX is pinned right at the edge of the weekly expected move (EM). The ES futures pushed a little bit higher overnight but are now treating water awaiting further instructions. Which makes it a textbook example of the very phenomenon that has driven equity markets to the edges of the weekly EM since the introduction of weekly options by the CBOE in 2016. But what exactly is causing this phenomenon, or market behavior in the first place?
In my Wednesday post I introduced the Z-Score and also explained how we use it for scoring implied volatility, making it the IVZ-Score. What I didn’t focus on much is why one would do such a thing in the first place, and the underlying purpose may not be immediately apparent to some. Now I already can sense your eyes glazing over plus it’s Friday, so I’ll promise to make this brief and actionable for non-nonsense traders mainly interesting in turning a buck.