You guys know I’ve been all over volatility, the realized and the implied kind, for a good part of this decade now. If you curious as to the reasons for my volatile obsession then the most salient one is that volatility is much easier to predict than signed returns. I’ve covered that topic in exhaustive detail over the past few years and today we’re actually going to put it to work.
Rejoice ladies and leeches, as today marks a very special occasion here at Evil Speculator. For it is today, exactly 10 years ago on August 3rd 2008, that I published my very first post on Evil Speculator, only to be followed by 4,238 more over the course of the ensuing decade. Quite frankly I would have never imagined in my wildest dreams that I would ever host a financial trading blog, let alone that I would do it for such an extended time. So what the hell happened and how did we get here? Well, pack your bags because we’re taking a trip down memory lane!
People talk about volatility all the time and often talk about completely different things. So I’m going to walk you through the basics. First of all we need to differentiate between realized volatility (or often referred to as historical volatility) and implied volatility.
It’s been a rough week in an already dismal trading year, at least thus far. But to your credit you’ve all held strong and stuck with our script, especially when the going got tough and then some. So I think you all deserve some good news for a change. As I’ve already hinted on in recent posts, over the past year I have been working on a new IV related trading system in close collaboration with a very talented Chicago quant.
Confirmation Bias
