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What Does It Take?
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What Does It Take?

by The MoleNovember 14, 2018

I am somewhat occupied today but since we are clearly heading into rough waters I decided mix things up a bit and do a blast from the past which may benefit especially some of my newer readers. If you think the past year has been rough for you then understand what may loom straight ahead will test your mettle and skills in ways you may be unprepared for. This post aims at highlighting a few common misunderstandings and confusions that traders from all stripes seem to chronically fall prey to.

The greatest games have always been dominated by the masters of obfuscation, misdirection, misinformation, if not outright deceit. Of course the financial game is no exception and the price of admission to be paid every single day differs depending on personality, cunning, intelligence, fortitude, discipline, greed, market type, market cycle, liquidity, etc. Although we are all trading the very same market, the various hurdles we encounter in our respective journey are a product of both exogenous and endogenous factors.

Long term participation and success therefore has always been limited to a very select minority. To quote Jesse Livermore: The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor. 

Most of us would list intelligence for instance as a cardinal predicate to becoming a successful trader. But like with many things in life the real picture is a bit more complicated. Because if it was just a matter of intelligence then why don’t we see more billionaire mathematicians or scientists? Many of them die poor and are often considered social outcasts.

As I mentioned above, we all must face our own personal hurdles and challenges. Very gifted people don’t get a pass here as intelligence comes with a price. Former software engineers for example are more often than not inspired by complex models and convoluted solutions. Their own intelligence and ability become the drivers of their endeavor as they assume that the key to success lies in cracking some secret code hidden inside the market’s gyrations. I should know, because I am one.

The fact that chaos rules the day is an inconvenient truth equally ignored by the smart and those with lesser neuron counts. As such a smart but righteous or misguided individual may be no different to someone of lower ability who ventures nomadically from one trading site to the next or absorbs dozens of trading books in hopes of finding that one system that beats them all.

The motivations may be different but the eventual outcome will be the same as the underlying premise feeding one’s action is identical. One that is inspired by an assumption that we may one day overcome some final hurdle and from then on it’ll be easy time. Make no mistake – as soon as you overcome that last hurdle there magically will appear a brand new one. Because as human beings we are wired in a certain way that assures an unlimited supply of hare brained cognitive biases and misconceptions – no matter how smart or talented we are individually.

In other words – intelligence or talent doesn’t offer us a free pass. Your journey will simply be a different one and success is not guaranteed. As a matter of fact all of the most successful traders I have come across are or were a lot more street smart than brilliant. Of course there is a baseline on the IQ front and I would hazard to put it somewhere around the 120 mark. But that’s not exactly a high bar and I have met traders dumber than that who did just fine pressing that one button that they somehow figured out works on a long term basis. As such success is a side product resulting from a series of positive choices. In fact this place was created years ago to aid us all on a daily basis.

Some of you may wonder why I often crack the whip early when I see signs of decay, impulsiveness, or an abandon of some of the prime directives we all aspire to abide to here at Evil Speculator. Naturally the dynamics of a virtual community, whilst permitting global collaboration and instant communication, also serve a certain bubble mentality with little to no personal consequences. For one we seek information that already supports our current view and we are quick to dismiss anything that at the surface violates any of our core beliefs. But there is also a social aspect to this.

In the past the guidance of a mentor or group of peers came with implications and personal responsibilities. Your seat at the table had to be earned (with significant hurdles to entry) and cutting and running was frowned upon and may cost you your career or even your life. At the same time success and especially failure were exposed to the people around you and there was no easy way of hiding them either.

In a digital world we are however free to simply extract ourselves in periods of discord and thus avoid personal consequences of actions, decisions, or personal behavior. Stomping your foot and running off is a character trait mostly exhibited by children but online it seems to have become the norm these days, often after angry insults have been exchanged. It takes quite a bit of discipline to overcome the temptation of avoiding negative experiences and stress but I believe cutting and running to be a cowardly choice with long term implications.

Highly successful people are never the product of easy choices and a careless upbringing. Like a good sword the friction of life, e.g. personal strife, being forced to overcome personal limitations, creates a person who is able to face challenges with easy that would quickly thwart others. Nassim Taleb’s now widely hailed concept of anti-fragility especially applies to human accomplishment.

Money is just the result of being successful. You can chase simply money but drug dealers and career criminals do that a lot more effectively than the rest of us. Personal growth however bestows wisdom and experience which will lead you to new challenges you didn’t even know existed. And that is what we really should aspire to as it is the real key to happiness and a successful life. Not one of convenience and easy answers. If you seek those, well – there are plenty of people selling them out there and I’m afraid you’ve come to the wrong place.

And there’s your answer – I crack the whip early because you need it. We all do – nobody gets a free pass. You may curse me today but you’ll thank me later (at least one hopes).


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Brishort

    “Highly successful people are never the product of easy choices and a careless upbringing.” Amen.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You don’t sleep, do ya? 😉

  • TimeToPanic

    NQ trying to retake its 6836 Fib level, but failing. Low recent lows re-tested today? Taken out Thursday-Friday?

  • HD

    Sir Mole- you’re a writer. Excellent. One of the dynamics of this particular virtual community is the group think dismissive of the fractal nature of these markets. Humans really are somewhat predictable, especially in equities. It’s been a riot to provide factual quantified examples for over a year now.

    Sincerely,
    Dunning Kruger

  • Sp00nman

    Good question.. was yesterday’s action a rope a dope by the bulls setting up a bear trap? Kind of a strange tape yesterday.. Looks like we got down to that 50% fib overnight.

  • TimeToPanic

    Still looks flaggy on the daily, I’m just going to sit tight, still expecting a washout this week,

  • Radler

    Very well put Mole. From being a floor trader in the 80’s at the CME, to trading online currently, I have found that in addition to disciplined money management and controlling one’s emotions, the hardest art is to filter out all the “noise”. I enjoy reading the news and blogs of various types (like trading) that interests me. It’s a double edge sword though as it’s so easy to get locked into thoughts on where the market should go rather than let prices guide me. I appreciate your advice on hard work and disciple and of course, good balance in life. Thank you

  • ridingwaves

    the great short that every short dreams about was the Post Office
    net loss of $3.9B…..again…

  • ridingwaves

    why did I sell half of BOIL yesterday, holy smokes….widow maker almost hit 5 heck 5.50 is lot closer than I thought

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    most likely all of the prefunding retirement shi!t.
    Leave it to Congress to F’ it up.

    https://savethepostoffice.com/how-postal-service-began-prefunding-retiree-health-care-and-fell-deep-hole/

    Long FedEx.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves a month ago
    possible chance for natural gas spike….
    In BOIL with very loose stop….have a pnf target of 53…..

    I need to start charging the big boys using my calls…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t discount 53 so fast.

    Many times my target ends up being the pull-back level at some point.
    edit: yours could as well.

  • ridingwaves

    ohh, my trailing stop is in place….what a ride from 26 level…..trends are fun for my bank account

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s a problem for me. that emotional addiction high – pushes you for more, eventually leading to problems.

  • ridingwaves

    I get adamant about my exit number…remember 74 CL call exit no matter if it went to 80….that played out damn right on….these doubles are fucking awesome…..I think the weekly BOIL was 92 ish at one point….need to check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • Brishort

    Gappy opening we just had. Gap retracement monkey business in progress.

    From experience, the key is the behavior AFTER the gap has been partially filled and the zero behavior on any VWAP retest.

    Therefore, beware of directional positioning too strongly as whiplash are usually the norm, especially in OPEX week. A lot of large institutions are lagging benchmarks and playing their year-end right now. Any movements, once direction clarified, are likely to be very very violent.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just what we talked about.
    sell FEAR, surprise with uppity gap.

    cycle 80 chart.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5e3c09da059b7d278024427486c51f2a9c61770f70c917bce0645ab7b4adeac.png

  • Brishort

    Indeed. As discussed yesterday as well, did you see the 4AM ramp start, very clear on NQ?

    Exact time of the low: 4AM: 6777
    High after the open around 9h40: 6929

    a 150 points ramp nearly all pre-open!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. But I did see Mole’s sleep comment when it was 4 minutes old.
    You may hold the record.

  • Brishort

    I have a busy life :p

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Zero leeches school:

    High probability trade: Gap retracement until around 10h30 on no conviction.
    Typically an hour to lure short sellers that then become the fuel for the next short term leg up.
    Agility is therefore key depending on your very short term positioning, or at least to read the tape message.

    The trap for non-agile is typically recognizable on slow dripping gap filling action.
    In my experience, then a VWAP retest comes on very quick action,

    Only the action AFTER such retest gives a better indication of the day’s potential.

    Obviously a break previous day’s low cancels everything and should be the stop on this approach. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4189e3f3a23e62ac471392da67d6acd70911f2769fe9c6c9b0b81b1a4a61be01.png

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves

    hammering XBI and IBB….74 XBI is up next

  • Brishort

    Behavior in line with odds.

    Next step: watch for a VIX sudden drop at or near turning point.
    That would be an excellent long entry with a stop at previous day’s low. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/888bb63b0ceba4986f412b0a19aca85b29193a61eb3f5e04a41bbb17e4cd09a0.jpg

  • Brishort

    To complete the example, this is how it typically looks.
    VIX & Zero very short term trading.

    Long with VWAP retest as target. About 11 points target from the low.
    With stops in place, just another trade. Odds of success unknown, but high probability trade and low risk on stop below. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e51408e076ef968942e910a177502bc20f1998b2974bf22451fc0b41d27fd74b.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    blow by blow updates?
    careful mate, don’t outshine the Master.
    😉
    (though it may up the Zero sub count!)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mark Fisher eh?

    Yes, everyone was on oil, and then someone mentioned Natty yesterday.
    +1

  • Brishort

    That’s probably all I will be able to do today. Must go in meetings now….
    The morning gap trade is a quite reliable high probability trade. Except in trend days, on whiphlash zone or daily triangulating situations, it tends to do the job.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    some folks got wind of that cross and took them wrong way playa’s to the wood shredder…..Fisher most likely one of them folks….they really jammed it north today to inflict maximum pain

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    OPEX week. Whipsaw Wednesday w VIX 20 🙂
    25 point swings.

  • Sp00nman

    No good deed goes unpunished. Thanks for sharing that. Maybe this is a trend day down..

  • HD

    Any buyers against yesterday’s low?

  • Brishort

    Zero 5 min now around -1. Therefore in zone of relevancy i.e. superior to 1. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6a62e7d74d06fe9797f08623508ed0d2fd1cb3844517804cee1132a5bcd8c7db.jpg

    VWAP retest extremely muted, action after the re-test attempt is of significance.

    Previous days lows ARE NOW KEY. Otherwise this may get very real.
    However Humpty Dumpty still walking. Nothing conclusive yet, but triggers are clear.

    In OPEX and year-end stakes for institutions, the stakes are extremely high right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD SPX if it holds here as I type 2716 Could go up to 2752 – 2756 Possibly even up to 2765
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    have entry buy at 73.80…..wash out complete, 28% correction…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The alligator opens it’s jaws.

    Pitchfork, fans, or gaps – I see the potential.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5523f704341bf41101d5bf51862e5c7fae3816ce51ceef9422ab9c1be781ebd.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD A flat from yesterday’s low a 3 – 3 completing and possibly up for a 5 ? Could be
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Be careful GG SPX could be a flat from yesterday’s low. If so a target is 2752 – 2756 even 2765
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    no bitcoin musings huh?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    4 red candles? wake up and smell the death coffee.
    Muwahaha.
    😉
    (no, you have a point)

  • ridingwaves

    if it loses the bottom blue line in your envelope, sitting there right now, it will end up going to 3500 for final capitulation……

    weekly review

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    agreed. looking left 5500, then 3500 – the last dip.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m kinda busy this morning. real work.
    I can trust everyone is watching the gauges.
    😉

    https://thedelbartoncourier.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/db4-900×506.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX IMO an X would have retraced more. Possible flat from yesterday’s low … going below 2710,24 and a 1.272 extension IMO negate the flat
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • ridingwaves

    SPY 267 seems like a lock before friday, gap be gone…

  • HD

    It sure looked that way. Think they caught everyone leaning.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief I have been short from 2815 Love it ! SLV holding a double bottom. My USO weekly and daily charts yesterday very close
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Equities markets currently at overnight futures low and currently stopped there.

  • HD

    im starting to like it near $5500. Next S is $5000 though.

  • Brishort

    Zero not overly negative, less than -1.
    Beware short term bounce or reversal must be factored into.
    Difficult to be overly bearish but not ready for longs either.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD

    Round numbers players may show up. 2700

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    MuwahahahaHA!

    No quarter!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, absolutely.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Life is a bear market, with ever-decreasing counter-trend rallies. I heard.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Need some drama here..
    Cue Music!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXcLybhbChQ

  • HD

    Think they can take out 2756 now. Jmho.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Love it SPX now looks impulsive down from 2746.80. Chief Again I do not count waves Only look for impulses and corrective moves
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    it did push thru old low and got bought hard, but fading, a real shake out gets me into the trust for a trade…loses here and that capitulation could be around the corner….might fall into a good Xmas buy…

  • maxcherry

    i bailed on puts, first two waves 50.91, 57.19 second two 39.62 ,42.00
    abc could be complete

    a=82.17
    c=49.80 c/a=60.60%

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Here we go guys the flat from yesterday’s low still valid the 1.272 extension for B is 2706.33 Could be ! If so up for a 5 wave C If this plays out Remember it is corrective so if short Hang On !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    maybe before Thanksgiving would be better musing….longer term auctions on next wednesday with big boys already heading to turkey dinners in the hamptons….could be drain plug left by sink

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX going below 2704.80 will pretty much negate the flat
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    NQ touched and reversed off the down trendline from the 8th November (fake) peak today. Keep an eye on that trendline I shall.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not a great day… I was expecting micro chop, non trading kind of a day…. I got up just after ES peaked and just expected much smaller chop range. Watched TVIX slowly climb. Also, my buying power was kind of annoying due to round trips. Today I had BP, just didn’t like conditions. Yesterday I used a fair amount on wasted efforts. 3-4 days ago I had a dead on day. Round trip buying power is still an issue as I started playing Crude and TVIX.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have been hoping they come back! also game theory guess was that MKT makers would rally to Thursday to help with hedge fund redemption requests on 15th

  • HD

    When does “seasonality” start?

  • Brishort

    Feels like an ES low retest with that Zero.
    Perhaps brave longs with tight trails on deck. Watching…

  • BKXtoZERO

    when it starts going up 🙂

  • HD

    Ha. Always the truth from BK. Thx amigo.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Max has a great handle on seasonality
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD

    I was thinking now but ok.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe

  • bankwalker
  • Brishort

    Ok…. one wanking moment….
    ES 5 minutes looks like a 1-2-1-2…. (Mole… Julie started this with her “impulse”, not me!!! 8-p)

    More seriously, VWAP touch likely in progress. As long as zero stays where it is, high likely it levitates there.

  • mSquare

    CSCO – Long via selling Nov PUTs . Good support $43.9x with earnings later today.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSCO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p0047517719c

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    GG – the global warming stuff you posted is incorrect. Check this out:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oImGTYJGpw

    We are heading into a mini ice age. Anyway, follow that guy, he posts evidence on a daily basis.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Preach it.
    Solar Minimum.

    I’m in the 2030 camp, Hell will Freeze over – Hallelujah.
    Ocean front property & cool weather – Phoenix will be the New Hawaii

    https://astronomynow.com/2015/07/17/diminishing-solar-activity-may-bring-new-ice-age-by-2030/

  • 1coin3lives

    I wish!

  • Brishort

    Not to do politics, but I hate that Global Warming non sense.

    Pollution, especially oceans and earth is what is important.
    But the CO2 debates sucks all the intelligence, money and urgency out of the rest of the real pollution that is really hurting humanity.

    The irony, while no ones talks enough about ocean pollution, one day CO2 may protect us from an extreme global ice age…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dude, that would be awesome but if so then you better start buying bullets!

  • ridingwaves

    plastic industry, mfckers….
    destroyed the ocean along with the Asian fishing fleets….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    buy? can you say Y2K?
    so way ahead of the curve, mate.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    Some Market Makers are having a difficult time balancing their books I guess…!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Merkel basically killed the entire nuclear industry in Germany after Fukushima and now the Greens there are effectively killing off their auto-industry via massive regulation that will prevent anyone from driving a car without spending a fortune (cost of ownership, taxes, gasoline, maintenance, regional licenses, freeway tolls, etc.). Germany over the past 10 years completely handed control of its energy sector and car industry to the Greens and they are now looking at a world of hurt (and high prices) for it.

  • randomuser6789

    Enjoying my TVIX position. Letting the Zero be my guide.

  • Brishort
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s not the plastic industry, it’s the 3rd world idiots that are throwing everything into their rivers which lead into oceans. The West is only marginally responsible for the huge island of plastic trash that’s accumulating in the Pacific.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    soon it will be life in a dome, and Logan’s Run.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run

    I don’t mind the babes, but that early death thing…
    http://www.asset1.net/tv/pictures/1024/341/movie/logan's-run-1976/Logan's-Run-LB-1.jpg

  • Brishort

    Fully agree. I love Europe and Europeans in general.
    Their politicians and Brussels technocrats…

    I get tears in my eyes everytime seeing what they are doing…

  • ridingwaves

    you have been in europe too long….California is a fucking dump, shit you can be 10 miles back in the Sierras and come across it…pack it in and it weighs 25lbs, back it out and its 3lbs…..lazy ass litter bugs, many of them need to be whipped or shot in the ass…

    lazy ass people are everywhere…..

  • Sp00nman

    Ya sure looks like they’re trying to keep this market in a range through opex..

  • Yoda

    Probability of El Niño hitting us this coming winter is very high. This means a not so cold winter, i.e Nutty gas should be a nice short, following the squeeze we’re seeing now

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX could go up to 2759 if a bounce at this level
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX down at gap from 10/31

  • Brishort

    There is life in Gold: up movement.
    Origin unclear at this juncture

  • Sp00nman
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    And support 11/02

  • ridingwaves

    the problem with that play is the mass of warm water off Alaska…..could cause a very cold winter for everyone but the west…..Not all El Nino’s are the same…..

    NG monthly…..largest monthly candle since 09, if history repeats they might play this top for some more cash before its done…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c86341ea2df276113bb7b430594e48afc5c61d7f8e335e3d74871052c06e52ba.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah this is the 2030 guy. He’s a doomer BUT. He catches all the weird shit regarding global weather. Wheat/grains guy may like him.

  • Yoda

    I’ll drink to that

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +1 for me.
    I had to sit on my hands voting day and not post this.
    Didn’t want to troll too hard.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to Lunch!

  • ridingwaves

    sold my other half BOIL…..thank you to all the wrong way guys, can’t play with the weekly release tomorrow, will buy back if they take it down hard…….

    I salute you the stock tip giver outer…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuCwzGsNKxE

  • HD

    It’s weird there is no middle ground on climate change. You’re either a believer or denier. We can’t even look at actual temps and agree it’s hotter. Nobody benefits from doing nothing, ok maybe big corporations do.

  • Brishort

    Cheese?

  • Yoda

    Hoping for a short squeeze like the one we’re seeing in NG.
    If the daily low of yesterday’s usdjpy candle is taken, I’ll have another drink

  • bankwalker

    Most people know that the climate is changing as that is normal. The disagreement comes in what causes it.

  • Sp00nman

    I believe in voting, largely because of local issues/changes that hit the ballots. Unfortunately, the majority of people are ignorant and make terrible decisions, and I think George Carlin is spot on in that sense. We get morons because that’s who we (the public) choose.

  • Yoda
  • bankwalker

    anybody we know?

  • bankwalker

    Our school system mostly produces economic illiterates and that is reflected in most of our elected officials.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Yeah ! The break below 2710.24 mentioned yesterday
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Climate has always been changing throughout the history of the planet, it is the “warming” part that is controversial.

  • Brishort

    Zero 5 Min positive divergence in progress

  • ridingwaves

    yeah, maxine waters is the banking and finance regulation committee chairperson…..

    its hilarious how sheeple vote….

  • Yoda
  • Sp00nman

    We have a high volume node at ~2708 from today’s action and low volume node at 2710.. looks like that last push couldn’t push past it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah a bit of a doomer, admit. Reminds me of the goldbugs ten years ago. But I’m really NOT worried about global warming in my lifetime.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    F Looking for a pullback to 8.92 mentioned yesterday
    JULIE

  • HD

    Agree but there are people saying mininice age in the face of record heat. The thing about science is it’s true whether you believe it or not.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice RW

  • HD

    Have you seen CA or FL lately?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    I think I’m the only guy in N. Calif still using a bucket in shower to collect warm up water and use it for toilet flushing….

    the housing industry needs to come up with a brown water retrofit for flushing, gardening…..using good water to flush shit is stupid shit..

  • Yoda

    The ugly pig scenario is getting more visibility now

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX IMO Impulsive from 2815.15 and also from 2746.80 (earlier in a reply to the Chief)
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Yoda Red pig Down ! Could be a corrective bounce soon perhaps up to approx 2753

  • ridingwaves

    thanks BKX!….man I have been lucky a lot this year……still getting beat up on some long term bio picks…but that is the game….

  • BKXtoZERO

    I hope so

  • ridingwaves

    267 possible dip to 266 SPY…

  • HD

    Very liberal of you 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great trade RW If you recall we had UNG on our radar several months ago I did not follow thru on it and you did Again great trade RW I made other trades instead
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    water is expensive, it might be just be very cheap of me….

  • Yoda
  • Sp00nman

    How much does water cost? Probably not expensive enough. Unfortunately the cost of extra plumbing and other things probably makes it not worth it.

  • Wave_surfer

    Watching. Waiting. I am not sure where it is going, but, right now, I am thinking it might be an orange pig that is trying to fool us into thinking it is an red pig.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Great job Natty Gas. We were watching it and it was on our radar several months ago if you recall. You followed up on it and I did not Great trade RW
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve seen some bladders underground, capturing all gray water and using it outside….there has to be a cheap reverse osmosis contraption that would be easy to retrofit for this….whomever comes up with it will be a gazillionaire….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sir… You said in the past that you would short when it was time to short. Are we there?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    she’s not a blonde.
    😉
    he he.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch. dam it! I missed it!
    😉
    (ok, I watched it via smartphone)

  • ridingwaves

    huge R win, very unexpected how rapid it happened….thanks Montana cougar!

    ridingwaves Julie 35 – 25 – 36 8 days ago
    what about up to the 100sma 2818 and all the way back down to 2680

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shall we call it a day?
    what could possibly happen in another two hours!?

    is that gap filled??

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a410354494c1a47179a46304e8a08477ca000e915776fa3584fb85d9b295c62.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Right on I posted a target 2813 just two pts off the 2815 Before the 2606 target and it was 2603 We have been knocking the cover off the ball RW.I am expecting a bounce shortly SPX now up to approx 2750 – 2756. SPX at gap fill now Could be a reversal now on the 60 min chart
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A bounce at gap fill Positive divergence on thee 60 min chart and oversold 60 min If so in a reply to RW below if a bounce target 2750 – 2756
    JULIE

  • HD

    Agree, but I tried to buy once already. Second time working, so far…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/78924b8a7cf58e2978e3a820f6306b042b1419e2d77df6d5c014431149b6b59b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that will buy some time.

  • ridingwaves

    I think they take the gap out tomorrow or overnight….looking to add some bio symbols down at this level, waiting till friday….the Camp Fire must be ramping up again, smoke pouring into Bay, can’t see downtown at all

  • Brishort

    That was one hell of a scare everyone divergence workout for the market…..

    As per GG, perhaps we call it a day…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ffa3126357dc298a968ebf5b4994dc66c4658cd671d509cea9922226b2dc5ce.jpg

  • HD

    RW. There are several grey water harvesting ideas available now. Check out YouTube. All are very cheap. Glad you’re doing that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW EXAS triple rejection at daily 5 and 21 ema’s with a bearish island reversal and now below it.s 55 ema BUT holding it’s weekly 21 ema and a lower gap window on the daily chart The selling volume today is light. EXAS could go either way
    JULIE

  • HD

    I am thinking turkey rally but can be wrong. Market is pissed off and ready to take out 10 years of glut. Timing that is our #1 job. So being bullish in this context is dumb. I’m dumb.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I am thinking that overhead ma lines are awaiting.

    which ones, may be the challenge.

    EDIT: ..also, this bottom may be a Secondary low, bulls have a reason to charge higher with bear stop runs.

  • ridingwaves

    only have a sliver of that left…..but will re-buy if it falls off plate…like to see some gaps close there..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Been buying labu, supertight.

  • ridingwaves

    BTC sitting on 5518…..a sudden push down and floodgates might open pretty wide…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    depends on how many buy orders are under that push.

  • Wave_surfer

    Is this down move a HWB of the move up from late October?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Covering short from 2815 actually my short was from 2813 my target posted. SLV holding double bottom and added as I said yesterday if it held. Methodical and planned accumulation of SLV
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    5300 buyer

  • TomW4

    Julie, why are you covering your SPX shorts if you believe in the red pig?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Awesome! To the Indian buffet for you!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bought crude uwt again at 19 as a hold.

  • HD

    All of the +D started at HWB. Buyers were trying. Easy part of wave is clearly over. Let’s see if we get a decent Green Day. TH. That would be a good clue.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom Oversold 60 min with positive divergences at a gap fill. Also oversold daily STOCHS 5,1 Looking for a bounce up to 2750 – 2756. I was considering a stop at 2710.24 BUT Tom this is OPEX and games can happen instantly Trading OPEX can be very dangerous
    JULIE

  • HD

    I will join you. 19.02

  • TomW4

    Are you going back short when we hit your targets 2750 – 2756?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Ha…you may be the first person on earth to follow me.. I will send facebook friend request too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    You’ve been doing your homework. Think it has a dollar.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My wife will toss them in the toaster oven for us

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes if it is a corrective bounce i.e. 3 waves up. Tom a very important item try not to read the tea leaves on 5 min charts. Read 30 and 60 min charts for impulses and corrections
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Thanks Julie!

  • Sp00nman

    Nice push through prior resistance at 2708-10 and back to vwap. No clue where it heads now.. Maybe we finally get that retrace you all are calling for.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • maxcherry

    todays low was a .61.15 retracement from the 10/29 low

  • HD

    +25 out

    Day traders market. All that action and SPX is -$5

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not much gerb. She is queen of the toaster oven

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    That makes you the PopTart King.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I covered my short at gap fill Refer to posts below. I saw this bounce coming in a reply to Yoda earlier below of a possible bounce
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Yep very nice trade Julie! http://media.giphy.com/media/NnGGHE0muVqpO/giphy.gif

    I’m bad at catching larger moves and usually trade shorter timeframes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think today was one of those most cooperative forum discussions in recent memory.
    and under 200 comments. A well oiled machine.

    Well done.
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    no sellers on NG right now….like the MMs, PE and Hedgies know the storage report tomorrow….

  • HD

    Did we say whipsaw Wednesday?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes.

    and that’s a big daily tail. A big encouragement for all fearful bulls.

  • Sp00nman

    Upvolume – downvolume been strangely pretty flat last couple days.. Maybe due to opex tomorrow..?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…we are dumb….I amaze myself all the time; just incredible.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Aaaaaand this is why I watch High Yield.
    so many bloody noses, I lost count.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9183467634c

    a gift from me to You.
    -GG

  • Wave_surfer

    This post matched the bottom almost to the minute. It did a lot in an hour, but this may just be a corrective bounce.
    Referring to 3 pig post, we are still close to a point of inflection so it may be better to wait for the market to decide if it wants to do a variation of orange or red pig.

  • Yoda

    made a new low today

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys One item to watch is the down trend line It will intersect price approx 2735 which is the approx 38.2% retracement That will meet the minimum retracement
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    with a divergent RSI (not on chart)

  • ridingwaves

    my mom reassured me of my dumb self…but sometimes it makes life easier….RW in cognito…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40c3f4e28bedcd2af034901a38ac9acc30ad86a03f431d06e895a7875cace098.png

  • randomuser6789

    It is “who or what is to blame” that is controversial.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Great place here….

  • randomuser6789
  • Darkthirty

    PPT is pushing on 2-4 minute cycles. When they’re running 5-10 minutes, you can stack. For now, just let em play

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tomorrow we short the pop… KOLD is leveraged reverse

  • ridingwaves

    thanks, waiting on the report in AM is best play right now….I see 2 monthly fractals that are similar and both went much higher but gave you some bear moves to get in, biggest daily bullish candle for NG in 14 years today…..

  • Sp00nman

    Yes I watch HYG as well. I remember reading long ago that the “bond market leads,” or something like that.. I’m not sure which leads which but there’s obviously a correlation.

  • bankwalker

    and using the word “blame” presumes it is a bad thing …

  • HD

    That’s the tuff part. It’s doesn’t have to be controversial at all. It’s just a measurement. There is no denying temps are higher, ocean warmer, ice melted. Why that is controversial is controversial to me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys USO my weekly and daily charts yesterday IMO very close The daily chart I showed the vertical parabola. At vertical I pointed out very little left. USO yesterday if you noticed volume was capitulation Today USO printing a bullish homing pigeon candle pattern Now pattern recognition with the unreal decline the daily 5 ema contained all bounces.Again USO must have a positive close above it’s 5 ema corroborating the homing pigeon or IMO you can trade the weekly chart and wait for a reversal candle on the weekly
    JULIE
    .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    make it a weekend project.
    pull them up, study correlations (or not).

    It’s something you want confidence in before believing the rumor. (or fact).
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have to go looking for my USO daily signal chart.
    it’s here somewhere.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Even I learn something new every day. Today it is homing pigeons. Will file next to fish heads

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve been watching volcanoes a lot this year….if any solar minimum takes place, the action here will determine how cold it gets, need a couple of northern hemi eruptions to even the keel me thinks…
    https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm

  • ridingwaves

    yeah, were literally baking right now on earth…..need some volcanoes to provide us some cover

  • TimeToPanic

    Julie, I think I see 3 waves up on Spx, topping at 2721. I don’t really do waves though.
    Anyhow, I’m still short from 2815 (but on NQ).
    Think tomorrow and Friday could be crashy, very.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I have only seen one fish head pattern. What was it Clive Maund I believe. Too Much BK ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    you guys remember the destruction of XIV, they could do the same to some 3X bullish NG symbols…….similar setup

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Ya I’ve spent some time looking at HYG, ten yr bond, etc, and there’s obvious correlations. For shorter time frames they can diverge though.

  • Darkthirty

    I’ve got a coyote head pattern on ES that screams reversal………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP looking at tea leaves (shame on me) presently a pullback for a possible 4th wave of an A up from the 2685.75 low. Any bounce from the low should be corrective.
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    For that count to work Julie, this W4 of A shouldn’t go below 2706.25 (top of W1).

  • HD

    Fish head pattern?
    Finding $NYMO?

    Lol

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}
    keep it Planetary dude.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    TIME Check

    great day. very good day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    certainly. no one said it was ‘easy’.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Tom I am watching that level too

  • ridingwaves

    repeat from below,

    you guys remember the destruction of XIV, they could do the same to some 3X bullish NG symbols…….similar setup

    I just went to some forums on leveraged NG long instruments and lemmings are averaging down…..I hate to say this I might have gotten out to soon on the second half…….if storage is below average……..to the moon alice…

    DGAZ might be shut down tomorrow if another spike comes…..can’t believe they found another instrument loaded to the hilt with longs to bankrupt….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Averaging down – on NG? Crikey…

  • ridingwaves

    leveraged ETN to boot….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom the pullback presently is the 10 min 21 ema …. This is close A cliffhanger
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gutsy.
    Natty is embedded.
    that outer band is now SUPPORT IMHO.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p4301984030c

  • TomW4

    Hmmm… 2706.25 breached. Maybe Wave A was already completed at 2721 (3 waves instead of 5?) and we are now in Wave B? Thoughts?

  • TimeToPanic

    Uh oh…..it just did.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom Thar she goes But we are reading tea leaves We should go the 30 or 60 min. On a 30 and 60 min it’s a 1-2
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I literally have a bag of sweet/salty popcorn, munching away watching the tape. Exciting life I lead.

  • HD

    How about a close above 2700 is bearish and a close below is bullish. Any takers?

  • TomW4

    I dream of having a life like that. Not going to work and just watching the market like a movie.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP Refer to reply to Tom above We are reading tea leaves
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s 21.00 here. but I work from home mostly, which is cool.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TimeToPanic

    Yup.
    I am just sitting tight from 2815, not jumping off til I see lots of blood in the water, and can smell the fear.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was thinking of an short entry tomorrow but RW warned me about those vehicles. No position atm

  • 1coin3lives

    If < 2700 is it too late to start stockpiling food?

  • HD

    I would not be counting waves right now. And I’m a waver.

  • Darkthirty

    stare at enough brush looking for profiles, and you’ll have 4 skinning knives sharp at all times too

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well I did get my ensuing bounce but am going to wait out the night session and then decide tomorrow morning. But in general things just got a LOT EASIER for us.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Tom you see what I mean by reading tea leaves. It can really mess you up.
    JULIE

  • HD

    Ha. I have my heart set on >2756 but this is a spicy meatball type of market.

    Food reference…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Forget food, all you need is ammo, lots of ammo 😉

  • Darkthirty

    We’ll see after the daytraders take profits………………

  • BKXtoZERO

    if I put on EW hat, this little bounce in crude most likely gives way to new lows, I have an initial entry as a hold but I expect another low

  • HD

    We all look forward to your opinion boss. See you in the morn then.

  • 1coin3lives

    Oh I’m covered on that count. I live in Arizona; you’re issued a lifetime supply when you move here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’ve been watching War Dogs, eh?
    😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nozIkRy0v-M

  • HD

    You will not be able to rob people
    Of food in AZ for that exact reason 🙂

  • 1coin3lives

    LOL, exactly. Civil unrest takes a different shape when every other house is capable of supplying an entire squad with weapons and ammo.

  • HD

    What part of AZ r u in ?

  • 1coin3lives

    Kind of the middle of Phoenix.

  • ridingwaves

    if you combine all the hunters in Ohio, MI, MN, IL and WI, it would be the 5th largest army in the world

  • HD

    Sorry.

  • 1coin3lives

    Haha, to which part? If you mean the airport, we’re not in the flight path. But if you mean Phoenix then I partly agree.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    rape and pillage in Cave Creek.
    then drift up to Flagstaff.
    😉

  • 1coin3lives

    Can we stop off in Fountain Hills to pick up all of the abandoned classic cars?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    NO.
    not enough fuel. They will store for a long time.

  • 1coin3lives

    Good point. Rust is not the enemy around these parts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m gonna delete all these related posts.
    Don’t want any google caching to think we’re domestic terrorists!!

  • TimeToPanic

    Sell those rips, I am catching a tiny whiff of fear out there….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I may have to claim that one soon! Guess I’ll fit right in.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sounds like my kind of people.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well NOW we’re flagged, thanks, GG!

  • TimeToPanic

    AAPL shares, sliced through the 200day MA today, a gap is lurking at $169, currently $187. Do the maths.

  • Darkthirty

    It’s like playing Zelda, one well placed lump of PB gets me all YOUR stash……………

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • TimeToPanic

    I see a falling wedge pattern on NQ:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/sj4tWSrE/

    Target (if it happens in the next two days) would be the descending trendline. I might exit my shorts in the morning (UK time) I think. Bank some nice coin.

    Separately, it’s a full moon on 23rd November, and seasonals indicate bounce potential about now, with the final decline down into the period around the new moon, which is a Friday.

    http://www.seasonalcharts.com/img/INDICES-CSH/SUP.GIF

    I’ll copy this over to tomorrow’s post if need be. Night all.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    My chart is slightly different and more bearish… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f83669d9a894e7d241788a7027490af0997b708668e8a6b9f64b6c47cbce31e.png
    1 bear flag, followed by rising wedge (bearish) – broke down from that, expecting test of lows and possible new lows

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    based purely on the October down move.
    The Fibonacci rings have done quite well.

    /YM 4hr
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f827636771d6b82b2b5658975ec42dbc2ed58a6e3db5fd19d7e59acb90071b8.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Everyone and their little sister is talking about the IHS pattern. You know what that means. IMO A fake out to my targets 2735 and 2750 then RED PIG DOWN !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very possible people are going to be eating “Red Pig” for Thanksgiving .We will take ours Honey Baked with cloves !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GE DeathWatch.

    the beauty of getting the correct envelope, 9 months earlier!

    ..bottom fishing. (Not)
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/783174ca5c0b6b62cfa3e2feb092dbeaca4e679c86072a4c2838476d6dc4ccb7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    spiral cut! (that’s a joke, I don’t think anyone remembers Mole’s spiral calendar days)
    http://cookdiary.net/wp-content/uploads/images/Honey-Baked-Ham_13452.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    That would be sweet Julie.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well DUH. Opposite George to the rescue.
    Mole *did* say it was serious. So up it goes for a breath of air, and then…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so much for divergence on the weekly HAL.
    sub 30 RSI.
    Muwahahaha.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HAL&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0693253652c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I forgot to look left today.
    flat for the Year.

    see you on the flip side.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c21a455782e8049d20e5bc0a6e0a22f66aeef031e7b04fa40070e304d225cf13.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Looks like the rising wedge has already dropped to its measured target, and I see an RSI divergence too. I’m not sure whether to hold on to my shorts, and re-load on a bounce, or just sit still and swing trade it all the way down, much lower I reckon.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes..we seem to be at a level where there is some buying but doesn’t last long…talking heads (CNBC) constantly pushing the “buy cos the market is cheap” angle. Makes me think we will have another leg down..
    but might rally first