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This Bear Roars But It Doesn’t Run (Yet)
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This Bear Roars But It Doesn’t Run (Yet)

by The MoleNovember 15, 2018

A grizzly bear is capable of running about 50 yards in 3 seconds, or up to 40mph. Clearly faster than any human alive and even faster than a race horse at short distances. But thus far at least it seems that over the past decade of hibernation the big bad bear may have put on a few pounds too many. For thus far all we have been seeing it do is roar, but not run. It’s time for the bears to put their purported sprinting skills to good use, as they are now beginning to run out of time.

Let me paint the picture for you guys. First up this week really was the sweet spot for November, historically/statistically speaking at least. And while we have two full sessions ahead of us before Monday remember that next Thursday is Thanksgiving. Which means a lot of big players are going to take time off, thus less participation. Albeit more volatility, no doubt, but it is not the best time for staging a big scale sell off.

On the momo front I’ve drawn some prior comparisons on the IVTS chart. See how the current signal compares with prior occurrences? Depending on the depth of the correction it is possible that the worst is behind us. However of course the possibility of a complete wipe out here remains.

So when do we know? Well IMNSHO a breach > 2700 would be a good start and every handle higher from here hands feeds into the bullish scenario. Until that happens the bears have a good chance to take this market down, but it finally needs to happen.

WHY? Because I have seen this formation on many occasions over the past years and this truly is the make or break point. If the bulls can break the current series of lower highs and lower lows then BTFD buyers will be encouraged to step back in.

So as I mentioned yesterday, our job actually became a lot easier. Because the bear has shown his paws and the onus is now on him to follow through because big ass sell off opportunities like these don’t come around very often. I can literally see the folks over at ZeroEdge or SlipperySlope licking their chops at this take down opportunity.

What I’m proposing for the intrepid equity connoisseur is a short position on a rip to 2720 with an ISL > 2750. That’s pretty wide but necessary to sit out any fake outs higher. Should we be stopped out I would flip almost immediately for a long position with a still to be determined stop below, most likely over 20 handles away.

Once again a breach of the 2700 and then the 2750 mark would be a good sign that a bounce is in the works. It’s not guaranteed of course and anything can happen in volatile conditions such as these. In case you wonder, yes, it’s possible that equities dump straight down from here but cannot justify chasing the current formation lower.

If you are already short then do absolutely nothing. You already know that big rips higher happen and the only way to survive them is to hold strong until the awaited resolution lower ensues or until proven long. Such is life as a trader in bear markets.

BTW my Dollar campaign was stopped out with ~3R in profits. I was tempted to re-enter but wanted to see a full touch of the 100-hour SMA first, which may be evading me. Good on the old greenback and I hope it runs like hell all the way into Christmas.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Sp00nman

    Wow.. looks like the bear is jumping the gun.. trying to get the jump on the bulls..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Well said.

    Has it really been three years?
    Someone said you were a great writer. Here is Proof. Gather round with the morning coffee.
    https://evilspeculator.com/the_tale_of_the_big_bad_bear/

  • HD

    HD Mod • 2 days ago
    There was a 140 point hit in the B wave up in March.

    This stat fulfilled.

  • HD
  • HD

    HD Mod • 18 hours ago
    How about a close above 2700 is bearish and a close below is bullish.

    *if you play round numbers this is pretty common market psychology in my experience. -23 at open.

  • Brishort

    Follow-up to yesterday Zero Schooling:

    Morning gap fill high probability trade once again successful before 10h30.
    What comes after is the start of the rest of the technical action that defines the day.
    What came before can typically be ignored

  • maxcherry

    if it closes down it will be 6 down days in a row on the spx

    since 2000 the spx has closed down 7 days in a row 4 times

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m trying to remember who I stole that one from…

  • HD

    good info! thx

  • randomuser6789

    Most great writers struggle to remember who they stole stuff from.

  • randomuser6789

    I play swings. Here are a few of my rules:
    1. no trades in the first hour.
    2. You can break rule #1 with sufficient justification. Fear is not justification.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When I was a kid growing up in Austria I was fascinated by the tales by Bros. Grimm and other European ferry tales and folklore. Also Greek/Roman mythology… I guess all that had a big influence on my writing style. And yes, you never really produce anything genuinely unique, it’s always a variation of what you’ve read before.

  • HD

    BKX, took the $1.00 on UWT. 19.02-20.02 $500 Gracias amigo. Good eyes!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I really like rule those rules, but especially #2

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Come to think of it you seem to know my work better than I do. You are now officially the Evil Lair’s curator.

  • BKXtoZERO

    me too… + 1.05

  • bankwalker

    Have GG and Mole ever been seen together at the same place and time?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX from 50.0 w very tight stop

  • BKXtoZERO

    ES chart started auto adjusting the scale downward….

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    There’s been quite a while now for bear think to sink into everyone’s consciousness; its a conditioning process, after all. After enough conditioning, that’s when price itself snaps everything back into reality.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’re underwater, aren’t you?
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    I happened to be big labu long yesterday…hadn’t gone big anything for quite some time.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I don’t think that it HAS sunk in yet..mentality is still BTD, need a real panic day to clear the chaff and then it will go up (maybe) 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Chart-wise, that’s often true; we don’t yet see a good re-test.

  • ridingwaves

    I see buying in bio today, I say the down move is near complete, gap closed…lots of cheap symbols PE wise, rotation somewhere

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes….I’m stabbing labu again today too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just poking the bull.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Catracho It’s called the point of recognition In EW it is the third wave down. Finally it sets in
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Low in for today? Nice trade for those that had the cojones and bought the end of that selling wave.

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of half TVIX for 0.60 cent loss, not what I was expecting

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep seems like lots of smaller 1;s and 2’s which ties in with Moles post –

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Yes Now trading above it’s 5 ema off a double bottom. Now in the black with trade.Longer term investment
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    re-entered TVIX 49.7 (against 2690 high)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know how you do it.
    chart of 15min VIX.

    you almost have to envelope the whole thing, and pick the bottoms (for entry)
    everything else looks like noise to me.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3eb084341e29fabca74b800e03b4e349400b714ae2e660506191521d5ffa027b.png

  • randomuser6789

    I got out of my TVIX swing last night after $8. Feels good. I didn’t have the stomach to continue overnight, though it could have made me some more money. Eventually they gap up.
    I see this morning’s gap down as bullish. And I concur with HD that a close over 2700 would be bearish.
    But for the time being, I am sitting on my hands and keeping my powder dry.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am simply looking at 1m patterns on ES, down to as dumb as higher highs and lower low patterns. 2690 would violate a recent level… if it lives then I am good. If not… oot

  • BKXtoZERO

    out 42.27 for .40 loss, looks like some possible bottom is in

  • BKXtoZERO

    I also dislike gap risks, I scalp intraday with hopes to catch a ride, THEN, possible hold some.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Banks ($BKX) are bouncing. USO holding Interesting USO yesterday with a lot of volume indicating buyers meeting sellers. The Semis ($SOX) are bouncing. …. These are positive for SPX I am expecting a bounce shortly
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    bonds?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Yeah Looks good for a target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    garbage.
    GE?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I send you the ‘good’ stuff.
    But the redheads get the ‘best’.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG F is dumping today as I thought it would 8.92 target for a long entry. The advance from October 19 is impulsive
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    I follow you on that one, but I am still waiting to see if the move has legs.

  • maxcherry

    heading into a extremely bullish time frame, from Nov OPEX forward 25 trading days the SPX has been positive 28 out of 32 years going back to 1986

    my guess is a double zigzag is complete from the Nov 7th high

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/263603330f51d5e2c054fc7402f039649946c895d2e2e5bcf23420e06ae7adfc.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    buy sell?

  • 1coin3lives

    My equity curve?

  • ridingwaves

    small lot long….looks like RSI is trying to climb out of oversold…

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    spread graph DOW vs DAX.. shows the divergence especially since 2015/2016

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “This time is different”.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    My rule is to sleep into the first hour

  • randomuser6789

    You poor Pacific Time Zone people! Bless your hearts. I don’t know how Mole did it running his blog from CA.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    He didn’t do a very good job. It’s a miracle he kept it going.
    (smirk)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GE could be setting up for a nice bounce Weekly chart target close to Raff Regression blue dotted line. Now notice the % below the weekly 21 ema where previous bounces have occurred. Approx 20% below.Now looks like capitulation The selling volume and momentum indicate capitulation Weekly CCI went down to – 300 and usually – 200 indicates an advance to follow shortly https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce88bcad37b212fb3e95514e8cdb7f768fd32d1bd79094d96655097ce2df0b56.png Looking for a bullish reversal candle on the weekly chart JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    might buy back bullish leveraged symbol for /NG at 3.99-4.06 area, weekly breakout retest area

    my momo indicator is still showing bullish times ahead

  • bankwalker

    will VIX break 19 today?

  • randomuser6789

    Not sitting on hands too long. Long TNA – smallish position.

  • BKXtoZERO

    KOLD would have been nice RW….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    If so, what do you think of VMIN? it is reverse VIX but thinly traded. It was halted back in Feb but it is still alive and ticking.

  • Brishort

    Mole, please report on deck for action!
    Re:”What I’m proposing for the intrepid equity connoisseur is a short position on a rip to 2720 with an ISL > 2750. ”

    ^BYO Balls of steel!

  • bankwalker

    I don’t follow VMIN.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am here!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, what we need to see now is a drop of the Zero below the mark. OR another pop in price while the Zero paints a bearish divergence:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39a8fd838d115b3baf77fca47d2629ab199b3004660bf6ef2a9d4629340a4926.png

  • Brishort

    Good, you just escaped the unleashing of the special GG meta-humans search satellite.

    The day promises to NOT be boring!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was a nice run higher and now we want to see participation turn South. If it doesn’t then we may just go long on a breach of ES 2750.

  • ridingwaves

    true or a disaster….but your bet would have paid for sure…buyers though from 10/30 are still down half…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I played the instant death path and kept it tight.

  • HD

    Yesterday’s rally was 36 off the low. Same here today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, do you guys see the big divergence today?

  • ridingwaves

    bid L 42.88 BOIL…might be to low

  • Wave_surfer

    A negative divergence on this move up?

  • Yoda

    ain’t you glad you took 1/2 off yesterday

  • Brishort

    A positive divergence on the 5 min on the move down this morning

  • ridingwaves

    Yes, Master Yoda, The force moves fast, mind must think quicker than ego…

  • HD

    BOTs 🙂 take 10. Next set up

  • HD

    0-b is above at 2715 and falling. That will add a layer of probability imo

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    stock picking? in this environment?!
    ..you should check with Grizz
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    Re seasonals, this year has been ‘different’ to quote GG.

    I read this yesterday, gave me pause for thought (possible 87 & 29 pattern playing out right now):

    https://acting-man.com/?p=53767

    Had a really busy day today, saw the overnight was down this morning, decided to just sit tight on shorts. As a trader I find getting out of a position is easier than getting in, how much to leave on the table/loss-cutting. As I’m playing this period (from a week ago) as a swing trade, I will just sit tight, as I do think next week could get ugly, and I think the Santa rally this year may simply not appear.

    I still expect a blood on the streets sell-off, and I do not want to miss it.

  • TimeToPanic

    See my post from yesterday, after-hours. Up til 23rd November, seasonals show a final washout. Also, full moon on the 23rd, always stirs up the emotions.

  • TimeToPanic

    Oil?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow… Amazing !!

  • Jason13
  • mSquare

    Nice chart. If one had some of it long (I unfortunately do) and waiting for a bounce to exit (in 2018 to take tax-Loss), where?

    looking at your chart above wait till it climbs back toward the 21 EMA and if it does not b/o above it, exit there?

  • Yoda

    Too good to be true the move was to me

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Jason We discussed the IHS pattern last night. Just remember that everyone and their little sister knows about it. You can guess what usually happens when too many people are on one side of the boat. I am looking for a fake out then a resumption of Red Pig Down.One item I am attempting to play a possible bounce and looking for a pullback to perhaps 2690
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Aren’t IHS patterns bottoming patterns? We’re up at the top of a 9 year bubble though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Long SPX two targets 2742 and 2771 Needs a bullish close above 2709.34
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to Lunch!

  • Jason13

    Don’t have an opinion either way guys….as it should be….just presenting what’s out there. Take it as you will. I’ll stay as non-biased as I can. That’ll kill ya.

  • ridingwaves

    should have taken the 44 area….momo is favoring bulls still

  • Brishort

    If yesterday is any indication, you are the new “Mole on a plane” look out below!!! :p

    More seriously, VWAP first, then we’ll see. Zero is barely reacting, nothing exciting on that front

  • HD

    Maybe it’s just me but I find that impossible. I’m looking long or looking short. Sitting on a fast ball, if they give me a slider I may swing and miss.

  • Darkthirty

    Both gaps are filled. 34/89 ema crossed. RSI 10 needed to clean up loose ends. OPEX negative about once a year. Short ew3x8 from 2709…..options dead in 3 hours. Just might get volatile today

  • HD

    Where’s the VWAP thingy?

  • randomuser6789

    Stopped out for small loss

  • Brishort

    Blue middle line of the zero. The others above and below are standard deviations of VWAP.

  • HD

    91.50 on my chart.

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….a qwik scary little downside blast….why not?

  • Darkthirty

    2693 on 1 minute

  • Brishort

    ?? 2682 on ES futures currently

  • Jason13

    Agreed but it seems some people really hold on to their bias…

  • Darkthirty

    then ramp the close?

  • HD

    I’m gonna stick to mine. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    Belief: ramp can start anytime.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I nailed the 50% pullback above VWAP Now get legs and close above 2709.34
    JULIE

  • HD

    +17. Out

  • Sp00nman

    Nice confluence of signals on that pullback for a push higher. Let’s see where this goes.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Grabbing a LONG position now. Stop < 2690.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys .. SPX My targets 2742.75 and 2772 (mentioned in post below) Again needs a bullish close today above 2709.34
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Your on it Chief !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Oil dropped 20%! Gas dropped $0.04. Those mother effers

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT miss type should be 2772

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wouldn’t that be nice.

  • HD

    0-b TL sliced. Nice entry Julie!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It’s possible Chief…Weekly Ichi cloud conversion and baseline is 2772
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are playing against the NYC crew, shenanigans are to be expected 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Jolly Good! I don’t mind being stopped out for good reason. I certainly gave break down a careful shot to 1 min chart levels. Rally Ho!

  • Brishort

    Mole, 2720, with style!!!!!! by ES futs.

    ES futs must be reading ES blog…ROFL!

  • HD

    I guarantee when oil rallies gas prices will go up.

  • HD

    Outside day. Aka. Seasonality

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Watch SPX at the daily 5 ema approx 2729 … Very important hurdle
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    News about Chinese tariffs on hold?

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    more importantly, where’s Gartman on all this?
    😉

  • bankwalker
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also an addendum to post below 2729 the daily 5 ema will intersect a down trend line Again watch this level guys Crucial must get above the 5 ema and down trend line
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    T’was only a flesh wound…………………….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Love my SLV … I believe I showed a weekly chart UUP and possibly topping. The Greenback has a tough road ahead with weekly RSI at 73 and a ton of resistance above. Gonna be good for PM’s
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO The daily 5 ema at 12.19 going to be tough. Already two rejections approx at this level. Again I am playing USO on the weekly chart looking for a bullish reversal candle
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Congrats Julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BK Love this place You guys are GREAT !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You should move to Seattle.
    Lots of rainy parades there.
    😉
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p9682397689c

  • HD

    Lol. Dude I am talking about the $50 it cost to fill the truck. Nobody actually trades gas.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG My husband and I grew up in the Portland area. Portland always 5 degrees warmer and less rain. Portland gets less rain than NYC
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You repeat yourself.
    and don’t forget about Grand Father.
    😉

    https://evilspeculator.com/no-respect/#comment-3795252603

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Brother of another mother. #METOO

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG My Grandparents were great Loved them dearly and a day does not go by that I do not think about them. I am very fortunate too having great parents also. Both still alive Great children too We are blessed. Great post as The Chief talked about what really matters in life
    JULIE

  • HD

    That’s another 36 point rally. If you’re keeping track.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you take care of the points, I’ll take care of the MEME’s.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Amen,
    as my pile O’money grows sur·rep·ti·tious·ly.
    There’s some things that just can’t. Can’t be bought.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    And there’s the sellers. Symmetry

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX HMMM ! Looks corrective off the 2670.75 low and now up into the 2729 (5 ema and downtrend line) Moving stop up. SPX could go down Bulls beware
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Ya.. wild day. I’m no EWer but looks like an ABC to me, with A=C.. or it’s a larger A we’re still in, and we’re in wave 4 now..? I still remember some EW stuff. 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking 1/2 off long … Don’t trust this bounce
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Bots having a blast going back and forth over the highest volume profile on the spoos.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Very cautious here GG Remember that my 2742 target is approx 50% retracement and approx two equal legs up i.e. A = C is 2729.the down trend line and 5 ema. I may have jumped the gun taking 1/2 off BUT Julie is gun shy … Red Pig Down
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also GG SPX going up into the 60 min 55 ema with 60 min RSI at 52 and approx two equal legs up. Caution is warranted
    JULIE

  • HD

    The “pretcher” counting part of EW is what screwed everyone. The actual price action was overlooked. Jmho

  • TimeToPanic

    Wish I’d taken half my shorts off 3 hours ago, but was busy with real life stuff, then the UK market closed on me. This game is hard enough without adding in stuff like that.

    I think your caution is warranted, until we smell the blood in the water, every rally is a bull trap IMO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP SPX overbought 60 min STOCHS 5,1 Also … Like I said I do not trust this bounce
    JULIE

  • HD

    Gonna cal it a day. Ninkasi IPA on deck.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….like Killzone.

  • BKXtoZERO

    As far as scalping long…TQQQ moved 3%. TVIX moved down 12%. When I exited long there just isn’t any retail products that can match the moves of TVIX. I wish I could short it… XIV is gone and that sucked for day trading anyway. All dressed up with nowhere to go.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Like I said earlier Watch 2729 the daily 5 ema and down trend line. Looks like a bull trap ! I will let my stop at 2709 take me out with the remaining 1/2 with profits on both. If it goes higher reaching original targets 2742 and 2772 will move stop up on remaining 1/2 Julie not greedy here
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    Zero sure has been leading the way.. The last bearish divergence off the highs was a screaming short trade, sure wish I took it.. lol

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed…

  • Jason13

    Wow. That dip was bought hard…..bulls seem a tad hungry.

  • maxcherry

    take out today’s high and its 5 waves up from the low, below 2709 breaks the pattern

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6991826f9829ccba0a7fe2851f11d867f365905cde5ae04da95cb59930bbea7c.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX I have 2709 too Good eye MAX Thanks MAX for you input !
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    ~2710 is a LVN from today’s action. Interesting to see if we get back into the lower distribution today.

  • Darkthirty

    ALT 50% of 2794 4 786 of 2793 iii of 3

  • maxcherry

    i wouldn’t be surprised the spx stays in a trading range for months from 2900 to 2500

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think we can only go so far with EW on this blog. I use it as an eyeball tool short term but The Mole is not an EW guy and his whole blog is based on net buy net sell lines. I would say ABC up for what? a? Could be anything…. Could keep going. I basically cured myself of counting. I just don’t want Mole to not recognize his own blog at some point.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If it does MAX … Playing a trading range with a Keltner Channel and overbought – oversold daily chart works great.We can make a lot of cashola with a trading range
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    excellent pick…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK .. I use EW only to identify an impulse and a correction Do not count waves. The Chief knows that..I use trend lines VWAP and basically the same methods as our Chief
    JULIE

  • bankwalker
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bought hard? or the bears had their exit line?

    always ‘a buyer & a seller’

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lol.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I took the Scott Phillips course on EW. He yelled at me until I turned blue

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I enjoyed it. Didn’t Mole join in?

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/bHrSoxGoSSk/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check, you scurvy rats.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EW is great after the fact. There are 13 different corrective patterns Good luck with that BK. My Ichi Cloud that I have developed is unreal. I combine monthly – weekly and daily. The monthly identified the 2606 bottom target only 3 pts off. The 2815 target was the daily I always post targets and contribute as much as possible. This blog you and everyone along with our Chief are great !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    well, just in time for Xmas and Thanksgiving….not everything is as it seems under the sun…thanks for all that giving though…
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-jersey-couple-homeless-man-whose-feel-good-story-went-viral-charged-gofundme-scam-193432689.html

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    she’s not bad. they should have went with the online services route.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +1
    after the fact.
    I’ve seen the challenge here personally.
    “show the wave count BEFORE it happens, and show >50% consistency”.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Some here are great at incorporating it.. HD DT as part of lens

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Always a scam. Years ago in Portland someone rented a billboard and stated to send 5 dollars to a certain post office box.That is all that it said. He received over 250k . It turned out to be a local radio personality and he donated all proceeds to charity. He wanted to see what the response would be. Happy Ending
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    AH will be interesting…….

  • bankwalker

    I smell a big morning gap up and go ….

  • ridingwaves

    I’m looking at billboard rental pricing right now…thanks for great idea….

  • Jason13

    I’m just saying the evidence suggests this is being bought up…until I see evidence otherwise, I’m staying long for now

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, I’m starting to give some more thought to this.. 2018 has been trading in one big channel/range all year. Maybe it continues..

  • TimeToPanic

    21st March, 9th October, 16th November? I smell a plunge.

  • bankwalker

    I am flat. Are you short by any chance?

  • Darkthirty

    5’10” in the morning……….

  • TimeToPanic

    Short since 2815.

  • maxcherry

    gap up and closes down is my bet at least below the open

  • BKXtoZERO

    I will take a shot at that scenario

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Obviously he didn’t yell loud enough.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have no counts Sir…. Stops and money management.

  • ridingwaves

    Lots of folks lost everything, death toll is going higher, it was a death trap with those winds, dry everything and lack of local and federal forest management
    praying for the folks in Butte County
    https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2018/visuals/camp-fire-devastation/

  • TimeToPanic

    25 minutes to the open, I’m still not seeing much ahead other than a swift slide.
    I took a stab at some QQQ puts last night, just before close.
    Look back to 29th October, a bull trap in all its glory:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/5tNShwNR/

    Target 6,600 NQ, the zero fib extension, heh?

    If the wedge/fib at 6860 busts, I’ll be out of my shorts. As usual, I have just 2 hours of UK trading to make the decision.

  • HD

    Terrible- Stay safe! I have family affected by the fires. Shelter in place today from poor air quality.
    60% of CA forest managed by the federal govt. 30% is privately owned.
    CA responsible for ~10%

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    go go metals..

    ?

  • TimeToPanic

    Thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Where’s Mole? sleeping in?

    HYG, it looked like a lower open but hope-of-a-reversal yesterday.
    not so today. Julie was right. (don’t trust)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fe7856c1fc893ec3965c9f63772a747963a1870a04ef928c282892981ec0dc2.png

  • bankwalker

    he just posted a new thread. see ya there.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What you mean?