Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Conflicted
265

Conflicted

by The MoleNovember 16, 2018

Things are getting more tricky again on the equities side. If you followed along in the comment section during yesterday’s session then you know that I took out a long position courtesy of our famed Zero indicator, which stepped up the occasion and cut through all the noise as usual. This morning the main question for me was whether to hold long or to exit and consider taking out a short position.


Before deciding I consulted a stack of momo charts as well as reviewed other market verticals to get a better sense of this current market phase. Suffice to say technical evidence is conflicting at best but I’ll share it anyway.

Let’s start with implied volatility. The IVTS is creeping higher and proposes a similar situation we faced earlier this spring. I don’t want to assume for a moment however that this is a necessity.

SPX:VIX has been dragging the entire time and it continued to do it during yesterday’s reversal.

You may remember the two VIX sub components, the VIN vs. the VIF. Still elevated, and yes it is comparable to what we saw in Marc/April of this year.

LIBOR vs. the VIX – one of my more exotic ratios. It’s worked well in the past but failed last time – as anticipated actually if you recall. The BB was just to blown out for a good reading.

TED vs. VIX of course in a similar situation. Again I am trying to draw parallels to prior occurrences. What’s worrisome here is that it’s actually flashing a sell signal. I have not followed them in the past and would have to compile an exclusive chart for a better perspective. For now however it’s disconcerting.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator