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Conflicted
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Conflicted

by The MoleNovember 16, 2018

Things are getting more tricky again on the equities side. If you followed along in the comment section during yesterday’s session then you know that I took out a long position courtesy of our famed Zero indicator, which stepped up the occasion and cut through all the noise as usual. This morning the main question for me was whether to hold long or to exit and consider taking out a short position.


Before deciding I consulted a stack of momo charts as well as reviewed other market verticals to get a better sense of this current market phase. Suffice to say technical evidence is conflicting at best but I’ll share it anyway.

Let’s start with implied volatility. The IVTS is creeping higher and proposes a similar situation we faced earlier this spring. I don’t want to assume for a moment however that this is a necessity.

SPX:VIX has been dragging the entire time and it continued to do it during yesterday’s reversal.

You may remember the two VIX sub components, the VIN vs. the VIF. Still elevated, and yes it is comparable to what we saw in Marc/April of this year.

LIBOR vs. the VIX – one of my more exotic ratios. It’s worked well in the past but failed last time – as anticipated actually if you recall. The BB was just to blown out for a good reading.

TED vs. VIX of course in a similar situation. Again I am trying to draw parallels to prior occurrences. What’s worrisome here is that it’s actually flashing a sell signal. I have not followed them in the past and would have to compile an exclusive chart for a better perspective. For now however it’s disconcerting.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    Potentially relevant piece as it pertains to near term direction of the market..
    https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/at-least-the-pattern-changed-on-thursday-14783964

  • mSquare

    INTC – Sold my long position before NVDA/AMD earnings yesterday. May re-think and buy it back lower in $46s if rest of markets hold up…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Do Nothing.
    there is no play. (at least it sounds good, always liked that clip)

  • HD

    I’m just here for the awesome wildlife photography.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Of the 4 possible GU/GDs in the morning…
    Gap up, Go down
    Gap up,Go up
    Gap down, Go down
    Gap down, Go up-this is my favourite to watch

  • Yoda

    Tape looks fuked. I am betting on more downside. Long SQQQ.
    Oh, almost forget: GO GOLD!

  • HD

    where did GC open Nov?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • Yoda

    1217

  • Yoda

    Sound like something my alter-ego would say

  • Brishort

    From the other day example on short term morning gap vs. VIX behavior,
    >>> the vix drop morning gap close high probability trade was perfect again this morning.

  • Jason13

    Yes, if all you did was play this potential gap fill, you’d have made a nice little trade. Now the question lies whether we see follow thru.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SnP looks like it could spring higher,
    but HYG daily? , RSI 31. If it gets to 30, lights out.

  • Jason13

    If follow thru, I dont see 2750 as any resistance at all because, if you look at the hourly, it will be a 4th time approaching that level…tends to vaporize it a 4th time. But we’ll see.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    USO daily,
    ah – here it is. that simple mechanical trigger? not yet.
    tempting!!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p9188685981c

  • Brishort

    Game plan analysis:

    Intermarket analysis: Market rarely rally on DX strong trend days. This morning DX trend down.

    15 minutes view: Up move about to get confirmed short term on NQ 15 minute charts crossing up its cloud after a nuce quiet “B” type movement with a clean SAR (0.01,0.1,0.02) crossed up.

    Environmental analysis: THis is OPEX.

    >>>>>>> WAY WAY WAY too many puts outstanding on QQQ. Max pain around 173!!!!!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/55b02862c7e6bde8e8320c0ce46e87aede7b99fc81e749ebce1b2b28b0fd3071.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    NG bullishness continues….too many shorts in widow maker land…they are big target
    heck wave counters might be the better players now….
    3.94 is extremely sticky on monthly candles..

  • Brishort

    Tempted too, we are aligned!!

  • bankwalker

    Do you use overnight data in your /NQ analysis?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Just how much coffee have you had?
    😉

  • Brishort

    Yes, using futures globex. Sorry if I missed something, Unsure which part…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah that was a major move a few days ago, bummer I missed it.

  • Brishort

    Thanks, edited above to make clearer. I do factor overnight action.
    I know Scott always says the overnight session is made of lies.

    The key part is to not use it to infer trend changes, but rather action that will have a very very strong correlation affecting the first hour of trading.

    I know some prefer to sidestep the first hour of trading.
    I do the opposite. However it only tends to make sense if you fully factor the overnight session, and exclusively on extremely large and liquid globex futures contracts.

  • Brishort

    Heads up:

    VIX & VXN morning gap closed.
    ES morning gap closed.

    A new chapter of the day is now beginning.

  • ridingwaves

    it aint over….expecting and betting on a second spike to 5.50 area..

  • bankwalker

    Thanks. I was mostly interested in how it affected your SAR calculation as it tends to generate a binary UP/DOWN signal.

  • Brishort

    NQ technical view 15 min.

    At cloud and upper BB. Crossing not yet done, therefore theoretically at resistance.
    Currently flat after morning gap long trade and watching.

  • Brishort

    NQ 15 minutes globex overnight data included.
    How it currently looks on my screen.

    At upper BB, in cloud. Watching VXN as well for direction
    Currently flat.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ecbbebeb096d2f74e0e179fb1a076631f6730c3e5bdfd52bae2766d4d1e044b8.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe conflicted….but these crossroads are damd important right now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Definitely a nice gap down and quick push to prior day’s resistance and it’s been off to the races since then.. 50% fib of the down move is at ~2744, and there is a LVN ~2756.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Seems like Options probably playing a big part today?

  • Brishort

    Indeed conflicted… Zero seems to say a VWAP revisit before any upside action.

    At resistance on so many levels. Unless overcomed strongly, the zig-zag days may continue.

  • HD

    Did you guys see @maxcherry do the EW at the close yesterday? 2709, that was 3 handles of risk today for a 20 handle rally.

    Kudos max!

    Just 1 layer of probability.

  • HD

    I did an OPEX study and was disappointed by the results but maybe someone else will see something from their POV.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c6b98233f2edca17fc9197e134094e8d0ced33e2f55338ac1be209a32325fe6.png

  • mSquare

    deleted

  • mSquare

    Up today as other SEMIs go lower and chart seems to say going out of my $46-$48 range to $49s. Probably look to going long with $47s again, confirmed if mid-$49s or better
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p4258433173c

    INTC with new big buyBack news helps too as will if/when a CEO is announced

  • Brishort

    OPEX is about open interest and Max Pain level for the most options expiring valueless, hence the market makers profit (as they are typically net sellers of vol and hedge on the cash)

    I doubt the chart in itself would reveal much….

  • HD

    oh I’m much more sinister than max pain 🙂 I do see an entire year of supply on this chart. OPEX is a time marker for me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Personally, I see a very true market in the highly liquid 3x’s. For example, labu nailed around 66%+ correction in the recent bearishness. The manipulated Dow, far far less. It seems, when a more trustworthy real market exists, the data about what has really been happening is plainer to see,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m a seller at 53, after they announce their globalist CEO.
    Meanwhile, collect dividends, drip drip drip.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/536bc5043935ca58de554cce659bade945e84a1f3809bd1e7e1f8f45afb4d9e7.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX approaching 2742 target
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    For those who want yield, close to all time low to boot….
    SMLP-Mid market MLP at 15% yield 13.72 price, like to see it hit 12, all time low….yield is good thru 2019 per last qtr 10Q….

  • Sp00nman

    Back into the meatier range of today.. targets are vwap and LVN ~2724 I’d say.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll be watching the 600. (strong hands)
    all the algos will be watching that Red line.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e43899e053aa0252d976bdadc8ecccbe1cc29457de4ab0f9a67a6f927ac65e0.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Taking off remaining 1/2 long Not going to hold over weekend.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    such a cat.
    he he.

  • TimeToPanic

    Just closed out all of my NQ short ETFs, keeping the put option. +14% over a week, sad that I missed the spike low yesterday due to real life shit, and sad that I can only trade UK hours, and perhaps sad that I am a wimp, as the wedge pattern on NQ is still intact. But I am safer taking the profit I think, and can forget about it over the weekend. Good luck all.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I like the photo below Definitely a MT female cougar !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just for you. (GG winks at MOle)

  • Mark Shinnick

    BTW, Can anyone imagining the world of the Sheeple investor with a considerable weighting of that age-old American staple GE? Meanwhile, all the other Sheeple are lulled with daily media featuring dow and SP. GE now gunning for new lows.

  • HD

    Nice work on labu Mark. That’s a new ticker for me.

  • evilasevildoes

    I played NQ last night—was fun

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very capital efficient.

  • evilasevildoes

    makenna?

  • evilasevildoes

    saw where Druckmiller went in big on Intc

  • bankwalker

    Good job TTP. Many more trades ahead. Keep on banking them.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK The car wash scene Cool Hand Luke !
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Thanks, you too.

  • bankwalker

    Lucille!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It’s being gutted. Just like The Towers, General Motors, and now California.

    frankly, I’m a little pissed off.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Yes good bank

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    F going down to 8.92 target
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    OK Captain, now adding 1m 600MA to toolbox (GG always has the best toolbox!)

  • bankwalker

    That’s on his 1 minute chart …

  • bankwalker

    all according to plan …

  • Wave_surfer

    With 4 hours left, I don’t think Max Pain will be hit.
    Maybe let Put buyers enjoy some nice gains today, so they will be willing to lose more $ tomorrow.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its an important perspective: To those observing the funny money QE world falsely built / capital flowing into paper mache lies and conjobs, return to realty is both moral and ethical….markets doing their job.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gap close.
    it only took 15 days

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX As I type approaching lower trend line drawn from 2670.75 low. Today’s high approx 3 pts below 2742 target. Took remaining 1/2 long off earlier this a.m near target posted 2742 Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    biotech risk is actually not a bad indicator for market….first to sell off it seems…high pe-valuations-drug approvals, clinical trials, FDA etc.

  • bankwalker
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    For the record, it’s not mine. I steal it everyday from public stockcharts.

    Additionally, it’s the only way I can get real time. Dam corporate firewalls.
    ;-D

    (wait, GG has a real job!?!?,….How!?)

  • maxcherry

    thank you, looks like 5 up is complete 2700+- for a wave 2 perhaps.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW I knew someone would show the Car Wash Scene ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, my Male boss just walked in. thank god he’s male. (gulp)

  • maxcherry
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait, you can type? I thought it was just hunt and peck?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I dunno. But I’m giving you a +1
    for the neckline! so many people get that wrong.

    edit: I’m thinking cup-n-handle myself

  • ridingwaves

    that maybe the biggest psyche part of trading,

    sometimes it feels bad to take profit, like your giving up on your plan, believing their is more on the plate. in reality its like winning a contract, getting paid but only possibly losing out on the retention or repeat customer to keep buying more.

    good trade ttp

  • mSquare

    I’d love to sell $53. Big resistance mid $49s and where 200day resides

    I just need to buy back in – selling $48 Puts to buy it over the next two weeks

  • TimeToPanic

    Thanks everyone, nice to get one right for a change. Bird in the hand and all that.

    I have a plan. I’m not really a trader, but I do expect a big swoon in the next few weeks (hopefully not today/Monday) down to c. 2,500, then a rally back up to c. 3,000 SPX into the Spring. I’ll try to trade those moves (quite aggressively), but the plan is to chuck it all into junior gold miners at some point, as I think a repeat of 2016 is on the cards. Also planning a risky option play on JNUG.

    I am already 80% in physical gold, stored in Zurich and Singapore, that’s there for 15+ years, for retirement. The 70s will look like a cakewalk compared to the 2020s.

  • HD

    Agree. 5-3-5 toward 2756-2820. Needs to burn some time..

  • Brishort

    The Zero is real time…. :p

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Vol crush on deck? Staying below 20 brings 17

  • bankwalker

    agree

  • TimeToPanic

    Yep, chuck in the moral decline in life generally in the West, burning seems appropriate (has it started in the modern-day Sodom known as California)?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    somehow I think that’s not fast enough for you, or laser beams.

    +1 for the Bear clip
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-eMdMsMgCU

  • HD

    Just curious. If gold does what you want it to do how do you plan on getting it out of Singapore?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just gave the other side a try, long TVIX 44.88 on spike to ES 2730

  • maxcherry
  • 1coin3lives

    I was just reading Al Brooks’ blog, and he agrees with you.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    80%!!!

    Will you marry me?
    😉

  • TimeToPanic

    Soon to be 95%, selling my home, completing in 3 weeks, all the equity is going into gold too? I might marry you, are you a virgin wench?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ROFL.

  • maxcherry

    good season for it, not a 1,2 though, abc

  • TimeToPanic

    It will stay in Singapore, I’ll just sell it as I need to into the local market. Ditto for Zurich. I’m in the UK, we’re totally f**ked down the road, swinging ever-leftwards, and at some point sterling will crash, capital controls imposed, food shortages, energy shortages, you name it. I’ll not stay to enjoy all of that.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…here we in the West dally, while official Chinese govt maps have drawn into them for years now the annexing of Hawaii.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I agree with the capital controls.
    That island will not be pleasant in Winter.

    https://brandtao.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/uk-7-january-2010.jpg

  • bankwalker

    Hawaii is only step 1 …

  • bankwalker

    This is the poem Kipling wrote:

    THE BEGINNINGS

    It was not part of their blood,
    It came to them very late
    With long arrears to make good,
    When the English began to hate.

    They were not easily moved,
    They were icy willing to wait
    Till every count should be proved,
    Ere the English began to hate.

    Their voices were even and low,
    Their eyes were level and straight.
    There was neither sign nor show,
    When the English began to hate.

    It was not preached to the crowd,
    It was not taught by the State.
    No man spoke it aloud,
    When the English began to hate.

    It was not suddenly bred,
    It will not swiftly abate,
    Through the chill years ahead,
    When Time shall count from the date
    That the English began to hate.

  • TimeToPanic

    9 year drought cycle just starting too. Corbyn would nationalise the farms.

  • maxcherry

    i dont know who that is, according to bulkowsk’s pattern site it’s suppose to be reliable, don’t know how much, it’s unrated, looks like a larger on on the daily

  • 1coin3lives

    Al is a well-known purist price action guy (maybe guru is the right word?). He wrote a three-volume set of books on price action that are dense as plutonium but full of interesting information.

  • HD

    The farms are socialist in US already.

  • HD

    Brave dude. To trust Singapore with physical. Jmho.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Still no cigar Unable to have a bullish close above it’s 5 ema. Going to need that Guys. Like I have stated Julie going to play USO on the weekly chart with a bullish reversal candle . That way not attempting to catch a falling knife
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Most is in Zurich. It’s a UK-owned vault in Singapore, a firm I deal with in the UK, numbered bars.

  • BKXtoZERO

    stop taken out at 44.6, that was quite a rip. Thank god for stops

  • TimeToPanic

    The English aren’t like that any more. They have become weak and stupid, fat and lazy, and have no faith in God. So, they will suffer accordingly.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I like CL in low 50s again

  • BKXtoZERO

    nice, that is what we just got

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX Now what SPX with this pop … ABC X ABC from 2670 for A double zig zag ? If so 2742 target spot on
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    VIX finally took out 19

  • maxcherry

    i could and have been wrong but i don’t see it that way, i think the 2600 is the low for the rest of the year

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems so…size long labu.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK USO has reached a 61.8% retracement and now IMO attempting to form a base. The vertical descent shown in previous daily chart usually indicates a low is very close and sure enough matching the 61.8% retracement on weekly chart. Also capitulation volume and momentum. It was a falling knife which best played on the weekly with a bullish reversal. IMO There is plenty to be made on a rally using the weekly chart for an entry
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I’m with you Max. I’m taking profits (moving up stops of course) at 2815 and potentially looking to reload for higher than that.

  • TimeToPanic

    Guy I subscribe to follows ‘TD sequentials’ (???), and looks for 13 of them as a buy signal. I believe he expects that to happen next week.

  • HD

    Nice trade! Thanks for the back up.

  • HD

    It ain’t the vixen highfalutin system but where was HWB weeks range on SPX?

    VIX is a lousy POS by product of SPX.

    Know the SPX and you will know Volatility.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP That would match a weekly candle reversal Thanks for your contributions.This blog is great we all work together to beat the Street !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MAX IMO going to need the participation of the Banks ($BKX) $BKX Chart not promising with the daily 55 ema below the 233 ema with both averages down trending with a large separation between. Also weekly RSI went down to 30 which indicates a Bear also.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ALSO $BKX price is below the weekly Ichi Cloud All is not well with the Banks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wait till they cut off the food, hopefully not the Red States.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/145953/stalin-starved-ukraine

  • maxcherry
  • maxcherry

    i try to go with the odds, 68 years of the spx only two made yearly lows in dec three in nov

  • TimeToPanic

    Once the left really grab power, millions always die, one way or another. Evil fucking lunatics.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    zig zag crazyness.
    Off to lunch!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I would be very careful here Bulls 50% retracement Going above 2738.68 is what you did not want. Bulls needed a pullback from there perhaps 50% then another rally Bulls could get screwed. Julie on the sidelines with profits taken
    JULIE

  • HD

    That’s great intel! Thx

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…Conflicted.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Gonna take profits SLV going up into it’s declining 21 ema with volume declining.STOCHS 5,1 approaching overbought A girl can change her mind Ya Know !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    todays low “a” down, todays high “b”, should move below today’s low for “c”

  • TimeToPanic

    Max, there’s a chart in this blog post showing that the market has been anti-seasonal for most of the year, plus some other interesting comparisons (with ’87 and ’29 for example):

    https://acting-man.com/?p=53767

    Weird times right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason IMO keeping an eye on SPY volume Volume on declines increasing and higher than the volume on bounces which are decreasing and lower Be careful here Jason. I also have another alternate target posted previously at approx 2772
    JULIE

  • HD

    Last 6:7 years SPX red week last week of year. FWIW. 4 weeks to get 100 point rally before C down to 2370 ish.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Keep an eye on SPY volume per post in a reply to Jason below
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    1929 1987 2007 2000 all had inverted yield curves and adv/dec divergence while 2018 is close to an inverted yield curve it usually occurs before a market peak and there hasn’t been an extended adv/dec divergence

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b5defed6095f5666ff8c6a7c588b08963422b754ffe959b27cca05b0f011cd9.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Yep, I don’t think the top is in, that’ll come next year I reckon, the AD divergence is worth looking out for. Just saying that seasonals haven’t helped much in ’18 to date, and I do think we need to see bulls crushed to get the final wave up into the Spring going.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys … Getting ready to short … Gonna be resumption of “Red Pig Down” Will post when I do
    JULIE

  • HD

    I know u all don’t appreciate news but the market may digest the trade news over the weekend. Imo that was the last bluff or last bullet the game show host has depending on your view. Either way I think it’s good for 100 points.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gap closed, end of story.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5784297381c

    don’t bring the gurl crap into it
    =P

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t.
    stick with the photography.
    😉

  • maxcherry

    what i think is the spx goes sideways from now through mid 2019 then rally’s up though year end, pre election years are positive 15 of last 17 and the two down less than -1% and that’s when the adv/dec divergence and inverted curve come in, that’s just my guess.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya I don’t follow news closely, but for anyone that cares, looks like any sort of trade deal is a ways away. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/dow-jumps-after-trump-says-china-wants-to-make-trade-deal.html

    These “news events” are giving me feelings of deja vu..

  • evilasevildoes

    2714 on spx on 1 min pnf

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Banks are going to bring this market down irrelevant of seasonality. Also checkout the $DAX which SPX can follow. Everyone is spacing out the $DAX Not Julie !
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Game Show Host – nah!

    Doing increasing trade tariff stuff while dissolving other treaties / exiting global institutions is more like that teen playing chicken / dare with an 18-wheeler (world) while driving an (aging) bull?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2600? BREAKOUT Game?
    man, nobody caught the PUN.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    WTF…Russell & NAZ red
    S&P flat,
    and DOW defensively GREEN.

    I’m going to Barf..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    but never Fear, HIgh Yield is The Master,
    and it says ‘wait till Monday open’.
    😉

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0448570581c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Atta Boy Watching the power trend line too !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    did they have tecmo football? best game ever

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BTW Guys What is SPX Daily down trending 21 ema ? I will let you guys look it up. Hint … It closely matches the 50% retracement
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    I never understood why single stock futures never caught on. Any ideas anyone?

  • Sp00nman

    The thing that makes me nervous about the long side is everyone and their mom is looking at the IH&S pattern and calling for positive seasonality. Seems like a crowded trade to me but who knows.. Like you said, looking at foreign markets outside of the US, it’s obviously less rosy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sp I pointed out the same about the IHS pattern in previous posts i.e. Everyone and their little sister knows about it. Also seasonality does not always work . There have been failed Santa Claus rallies too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Most people would be trading the stock futures and not the stock itself. What a situation that would be ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    That’s a very fair point Julie but I have found from experience that volume is a lagging indicator and hasn’t helped me in short to intermediate term trading.

  • mSquare

    Don’t options kind of do that? Sure, leverage, strikes and expiry are different but lots of liquidity for the big volume stocks…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oh GG and Guys …. This is “Fun” The “Hedgies” GVIP Having trouble stalling on a Friday. Look how they sold into the 55 ema. Also now stalling at the 5 ema and unable to close above The 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s are in a bearish alignment. Julie does not go against the 10,000 hedge funds but rides their coat tails.I am getting ready to short https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3614f71e267d26e4f3ece40c2eb2ba49166d48e8ccc2ae57a60c38467a2680b.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    against a rising Slow STO?!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG …Yup ! Hey GG Have A Great Weekend and You and your family “Happy Thanksgiving”
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Those things exist all the time, so why, or what happens on large moves like we just had? someone must be getting killed as it can’t always be under their control.

  • bankwalker

    They exist now Julie and have for several years … just no volume.

  • bankwalker

    You can mimic them with deep ITM short term options but they are a different animal. They are futures contract that require 20% margin.

  • HD
  • bankwalker

    VIX taking a dump … SPX put options not in demand as much as recent past.

  • HD

    I’m really not familiar. What is this?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD
  • TimeToPanic

    You think they could ramp it into Monday for me?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not for 80 percenters.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG F A bounce at 8.98 .. 6 cents above 8.92 target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    buy Felix BUY…. LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (Eddie laugh)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed my labu….for today anyway.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone taking a short Exactly Now against today’s high ?
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    In late 2015 they managed to get QQQ back above the 200 day MA, for a while.

    RSI and the other momentum indicator were both looking good back then.

    Today, will they push it back up to, or over the 200MA again? The trendline lurks just above. Gaps below, and lots of air besides. RSI and the oscillator look weak now. A bounce now into Thanksgiving would be sweet for a re-short IMO, I would literally give thanks:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZjOvE9JY/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I wiil answer that … Nope !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    not I

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    No. BPSPX is in neutral for me.

    Even if I would get lucky Monday. It would just be luck. Not my style.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p85144430594

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m taking a decaf and a chocolate bar instead.

  • HD

    great spot to try but i am done this week.

    Bears are full, let’s revisit the bulls in a few days.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlSTASKb04

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You may want to stock up on some before those capital controls kick in.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    QQQ’s!
    Don’t get me started. or should I say Parked?
    it hasn’t moved since Tuesday!!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p92407957632

  • TimeToPanic

    Heh, you’d laugh if you could see the volume of tinned food inn the nooks and crannies of this house. Most of it bought 7-10 years ago, still good. But not ideal for a move of home.

    (Hard as I try, I cannot get images to embed from links, is there a magic trick?).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    for the three of us left.

    Time check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I open the image in a new tab (using Chrome Browser)
    then cut and paste that URL (.jpg) directly into comments area.
    if the image appears, then click the Post button.

    https://gbc-cdn-public-media.azureedge.net/img29314.768×512.jpg

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not a bloody cup-n-handle mate. But appreciated.
    +1

  • bankwalker

    four

  • HD

    it’s a very choppy rally into fibs. This would normally get the full HD treatment.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Going against the crowd … Taking a Very Very Small short probe SPX. Again Very Very Small Probe against today’s high. They gap it Monday above the 21 ema will be out with minimal loss.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so.
    what’s the R:R?
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    should be 4 to 1, or it’s not worth it. considering.

  • TimeToPanic

    And it doesn’t really look flaggy, hence I exited today. Quick move up ahead?

  • HD

    amazing market to provide opportunity up to the last minute. HAGWE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG It’s over that … Overbought 60 and 10 min charts and Hedgies not impressed. Low volume SPY.on bounce Very small position GG I have done very well nailing the whole shebang
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    u2

  • HD

    “nailing the whole shebang” is the favorite thing I read today,,, if you know what I mean…. 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    Caught that too…………………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I know HD LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Back to work Everyone Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I find it cathartic to just walk away, cause I cant find an edge. Might pick up Monday expiry lotto ticket strangle………………

  • bankwalker

    bye Julie. Thanks for your input.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “this too shall pass”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have *no* idea.

    Hey, remember when God closes a door, he opens a window!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgw4t2sDZGE

  • bankwalker

    SPX options are still trading ….

    VIX is still being calculated …

    and it is still going down …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I want to remind everyone of the Bearish Volume Pattern SPY Also the 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s bearish alignment. Also the GVIP “Hedgies” chart shown below Chart showing the bearish volume pattern SPY https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abc04b508e6308cd13c25dbad5d53882e5c5b98765ab7243f670c0283e362517.png JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I’d swear PPT grabbed this by the neck yesterday, and haven’t let go yet.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not according to Master Julie, she’s baby bearish.

  • Darkthirty

    Lotta upside potential there yet……….

  • Darkthirty

    2870 would be 786. If C of 2 just got started….still nothing organic about the recent price action

  • Darkthirty

    Still have a 2518 target end of November , beginning of December FWIW

  • Jason13

    Interesting move Julie. Time will tell if your probe pays off. I have no evidence but my feeling is with an OPEX like today we gap up and go on Monday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Oh! We forgot the beer salute.
    HD, Thanksgiving is coming up..

    Cheers! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/731cf272a72a57043b6cae5b847fc4db5c2568bf74d75e83eb98fd8dad6d22dd.png
    read’em and weep gentlemen.

  • 1coin3lives

    Some skeptical Wildcats – I’m not naming anyone in particular – might disagree with that sentiment 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ENDP Guys a very strong stock on sale? Down to 50% retracement ; 233 ema and gap window.Oversold with RSI at 28 The 5 ema is 13.13 and a resistance 13.16 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de5704d8c4f6ca534173d7a1160fa511e55744f380b249771475519b93b02647.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I think I found something…. open interest plunged (before) the recent sell off. Can it be this simple?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7572d8996a51da8ff361c59473764f52e121911a14d47dadb5b42c00bf479fc.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK My husband has notes on open interest … Open interest rising with price rising BULLISH Open interest rising with price declining Short positions increasing and actually bearish as shorts are pounding the stock. Open interest falling and price falling is bullish and a bottom is near Open interest falling and price rising a top is near
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Hopefully no one thinks me mad for sharing this. They nailed the top back in October, further turbulence expected until 6th December. Because of planetary alignments:

    https://mmacycles.com/index.php?route=blog/article&category_id=1&article_id=225

  • maxcherry

    MAR JUNE SEPT DEC have higher open interest than the other months

    most likely related to futures

    interesting enough the week after the monthly expiration of MAR JUNE and SEPT are the three weakest of the year based on % positive
    mar wk4 24.24% 8 up out of 33 last

    june wk4 36.36% 12 up

    sept wk4 27.27% 9 up

    dec wk4 75.00% 24 up out of 32
    from 1986

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Evil Empire INTC is a short at this level or at approx 51 which is is the upper boundary of the weekly cloud. Observe the bounce off the confluences of the moving averages.and blue dotted Raff Regression. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/700cc17dc348eec606905bd63f1af2d6d9f2b948ae4727622377ba2306075e2e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MTUM (aggressive sector) alerted of the decline in October i.e. negative divergence. Also with the possible IHS pattern presently MTUM made a lower high than SPX Bulls Beware FYI the $XII is the Institutional Index which is not traded and therefore not subject to manipulation JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2fa5a5514c61094f05d1bbfedf44568461b7c2583a8122bae2c9f2aeab5f5572.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I disagree. RSI above 50, price nowhere for 3 months.
    it’s waiting for a break higher.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I was browsing dogs of the DOW.

    KO, why do I find these after the fact? it’s a curse.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cd7b3855c70d53bd25408fa44b7ae6e7c67c53caaac9f412522b7d6ffdf9361e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG $BKX (Banks) and $XBD (Broker – Dealers) officially in a Bear Market Weekly RSI (27) below 50 Weekly STOCHS 50,3,3 below 50 Weekly MACD below Centerline Also Weekly 17 ema below 43 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d81775e4f4fdb0adaa56e9d660b1b8e989a4c70acb2d814c3089958ba106dd0.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • TimeToPanic

    Hello you two.

    My weekend reading indicates a possible bounce to only 2766ish. Or no bounce at all, and the crash is a go with immediate effect. I’ll hope for a bounce so I can jump on with shorts again. Nice chart Julie on the XII weakness.

    My weekend involved a success in tasting my fist 2 jars of homemade sauerkraut, one red cabbage, one white cabbage, they’ve been fermenting for 2 weeks in their own juices and salt. Very tasty, crunchy, and healthy. Also, a good weight session yesterday, 50% more weight on the squats, showed I was not pushing it before.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG $RUT in a Bear Market Weekly RSI(27) and STOCHS 50,3,3 below 50 . Waiting for the official weekly 17 ema to cross below the 43 ema and both are down trending https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/827d89c25983c0851ef08f5ae1852e38ce33d0f0f61252b6582e90f500374df9.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $RUT The Bearish Rising Wedge played out to perfection
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi TTP Glad you made sauerkraut. I made applesauce today. SPX an alternate target to my 2742 is 2772. I believe the high on this bounce is approx 2746 (4 pts above target) The daily 21 ema is approx 2748
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys … Bulls definitely have their work cut out for them this upcoming week. Watch for $NYMOT to drop below 0. We all will be singing “Bye Bye Blackbird ”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO in a Bear Market Next confirmation will be Weekly 17 ema crossing below weekly 43 ema. Looking for a dead cat bounce at the 61.8% retracement to a lower high to really throw the kitchen sink short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca72f333dfdf70ef951418972b4bca82d5b3f7908ee332527137f34ed7dbc00e.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok, ok. bear market. I hear you.
    that doesn’t eliminate a fast move up to test the medians/averages from the underside!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Why did the blonde put her iPad in a blender?

    Because she wanted to make apple juice.

  • Yoda
  • bankwalker

    Hey GG you mentioned last week that you can’t get real time quotes at work.

    Try investing.com they have free real time CFD quotes for just about any market you can think of.

  • ridingwaves

    blood in the water, feels like street sharks are going to shoot for that weekly NG 5.40 gap…..
    it will reek havoc on the large short crowd banking coin for years but forgot to get out…
    DGAZ could open at 2.30-40 tomorrow…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $NATGAS Parabolic moves have a target to where the parabola began which targets approx 3.40 matching https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41d3fe23bd84058b09f9601413e0f2da8b42c989b2166080dc229e31620b3e8d.png (1) gap (2) rising 55 ema (3) a lower trend line JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Reloaded all of my ETF shorts at NQ 6870. Too many bulls counting on that IHS pattern, can’t see that playing out up near the top. Wavers who have good form see the rest of a W4 unfolding from now, down to c. 2500 minimum, possibly 2300ish. I’d close out my shorts if ES exceeds 2749. Good luck all.

  • TomW4

    @disqus_QdAGAxxLHS:disqus and @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus

    I agree about the IHS pattern. As @Julie said, everybody is talking about it. I remember back in July of 2009 where EVERYONE was talking about the H&S pattern developing after the low set on march of 2009. As you can see, it didn’t happen. I’m thinking that our situation is the same as before (but just the inverse). IHS pattern being talked about by everyone after the top set recently.