Slow Week

Thanksgiving looms ahead and for me personally this is going to be a fairly slow week plus I’ll be taking Friday off like most likely the rest of you guys. It’s been a pretty rough year for me in terms of my health and I promised my wife to slow things down a little and recharge them old batteries. So I will be posting only quick updates tomorrow and Wednesday and then pick things up again in earnest on Monday the 26th.

Nothing really new to report on the equities side as we’ve barely moved over the past two sessions. As you can see the Orange Pig scenario has now produced a pretty juicy looking inverted H&S pattern and if I wasn’t already positioned long I would be looking for an entry opportunity.

Which doesn’t mean that the bearish case has been disqualified, au contraire mon frère! A fall through our current stop < ES 2670 would open the floodgates and lead us lower. The odds of that happening only diminish once we clear ES 2745 and hopefully leave it behind, but for now it’s still a 50/50 equation.

The fact that crude is unable to take advantage of the recent weakness in the Dollar is worrisome and although I’m not going to interfere with my campaign management the odds of success here are dropping now.

Which could get very interesting indeed. After a pretty merciless selloff over the past two months that 100-week SMA as well as the 25-week SMA marked very reasonable spots for a possible bounce. But if it drops through the 56 range then we could be heading back < the 50 mark again before year’s end.