The most confusing aspect of a high volatility market phase is that it has a knack for roping in bulls and bears alike, especially the dumb and inexperienced ones, i.e. the vast majority. Yesterday’s session was a textbook example and all the other charts I am going to post below are beautifully summarized by none other than our much beloved Zero indicator:
Equity markets in particular, since the end of January, have been going above, below, and beyond in order to test our collective mettle. I have to concede that I have rarely worked this hard to squeeze out an edge and to retain a reasonable technical perspective. Meanwhile the prospect of final resolution (up or down) continues to be only a few trading days away. Only to then again evade us of course.
I just took a glance at the E-Mini and it looks like we may be served a potential roll over scenario here. Yesterday I promised you realized volatility (RV) and we’re certainly getting a generous helping of that. I also gave both the bullish and bearish scenario pretty even odds based on [elaborate reasoning here]. Now this morning it’s becoming clear that yesterday’s meek advance will be unable to hold its meager gains.
Equity futures pulled an NFL yesterday judging by the complete lack of participation throughout the big roll over day into the 2018 March contract. Fairly unusual at least in my (not so) humble opinion, and it seemed as if everyone rolled (or perhaps not) and then simply walked away.