Equity markets in particular, since the end of January, have been going above, below, and beyond in order to test our collective mettle. I have to concede that I have rarely worked this hard to squeeze out an edge and to retain a reasonable technical perspective. Meanwhile the prospect of final resolution (up or down) continues to be only a few trading days away. Only to then again evade us of course.
I just took a glance at the E-Mini and it looks like we may be served a potential roll over scenario here. Yesterday I promised you realized volatility (RV) and we’re certainly getting a generous helping of that. I also gave both the bullish and bearish scenario pretty even odds based on [elaborate reasoning here]. Now this morning it’s becoming clear that yesterday’s meek advance will be unable to hold its meager gains.
Equity futures pulled an NFL yesterday judging by the complete lack of participation throughout the big roll over day into the 2018 March contract. Fairly unusual at least in my (not so) humble opinion, and it seemed as if everyone rolled (or perhaps not) and then simply walked away.
The equity market in particular has become extremely good at luring and then trapping people into highly volatile reversals. Which especially is true for those rare moments when we may be tempted to trade against the prevailing trend, which of course continues up, up, and then up. Given the increasing number of traps placed in front of us on a weekly basis I have a hard time imagining how anyone could succeed trading equities on a long term basis without the aid of some sort of participation measure (a.k.a. market lie detector) as for example our very own Zero indicator: