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Dead Cat Bounce
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Dead Cat Bounce

by The MoleAugust 15, 2018

I just took a glance at the E-Mini and it looks like we may be served a potential roll over scenario here. Yesterday I promised you realized volatility (RV) and we’re certainly getting a generous helping of that. I also gave both the bullish and bearish scenario pretty even odds based on [elaborate reasoning here]. Now this morning it’s becoming clear that yesterday’s meek advance will be unable to hold its meager gains.

Which by the way does not surprise me the least after looking at the magnitude of participation on our Zero indicator. Just compare Monday’s signal range during a bearish day to that of yesterday’s chop higher. Can anyone say ‘dead cat bounce’?

I was somewhat impressed by the fact that VWAP wasn’t touched once yesterday, which to be honest is quite uncharacteristic given the spasmodic advance higher. Maybe it was mostly bot driven OR it could be an indication of distribution, and you know what that means.

Well, you know the plan I already outlined yesterday. On a stop out I will observe the tape and wait for a last kiss goodbye (LKGB) retest of 2820. Should I get that then I’ll take out a short position with a stop > 2840.

That’ll be all for today as I have a ton of video editing to attend to. Plus I’m already spoiling you guys too much ๐Ÿ˜‰


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Reload the page if you don’t see a link at [elaborate reasoning] – LOL ๐Ÿ™‚

    By the way, when I was looking for a good theme image for this post I ran into quite a lot of sick stuff. One guy had turned his dead stuffed cat into a flying drone. I mean, I am as evil as the next market megalomaniac, but even for me there are f…ing limits!! Poor kitty…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Its getting close to the time to be greedy on Platinum. Multi decade low. Just need to see flush out….

  • HD

    The sellers yesterday sure took a lot of heat here.

  • ridingwaves

    Marketwatch headline-Hereโ€™s why gold might die out as an investment

    I think we are getting close to a bottom on gold…

  • HD

    10 handle range 1/2 off 16

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ll be exiting short miners pretty soon here.

  • ridingwaves
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I like how you think ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh that’s just wrong…

  • StockTalker

    Dollar looks to be an overthrow here, went long gold.

  • HD
  • StockTalker

    /YM below 25k and game on.

  • ridingwaves

    turkey and opex is the game…..much to do about nothing…

  • bankwalker

    I remember gold at about $300 per oz.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    so do I, I dredged an oz and half up in Piru creek near Gorman….and got $250 for the lot…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    turkey.
    “make sure you cook it in GREECE. We’ve been through these so many times, I’ve lost count.”

    that’s what I was telling Julie Sunday.

  • StockTalker

    Rut Roe

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Great trade GG, and also whoever was short CL, great trade as well…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so’s Elliot Waving.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • HD

    nice trade ST. You were pounding the table here yesterday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    speak up Scooby!

  • StockTalker

    Getting ready for today is all, we have a long leg in store. /NQ will tank by the looks of it.

  • Ronebadger

    We are officially (so far) still on a VIX Sell Signal Step 3 (Yesterday’s Step 2 Buy is negated, as today will probably be back to a Step One Buy today) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c46e500a22e0aa3c235a321ef7c4db5b4a779896ff651febb3fe4cae9646ead7.png

  • bankwalker

    I like long legs …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you should change you name to…
    VIXBadger

  • Ronebadger

    Probably a trend down day as well

  • HD

    VIX 16! Make the SPX great again!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat
  • StockTalker

    DCB upon us

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m exited…..for time being.

  • Tomcat

    excited or exited ???

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice when a plan comes together ๐Ÿ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lotsa red.
    (M)acy’s – ouch, right to the face.

  • HD

    I thought this was about Space Forceโ„ข 55 point hit since that was announced last week

  • StockTalker

    Gold capitulation today.

  • StockTalker

    My goodness, look at /HG, tells me time for the dollar to turn.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thanks!
    Out, 38.68
    pump’em and dump’em.

  • HD

    This 3 handle risk for 35 reward didn’t interest many. should I add an indicator? lol
    SPX is setting up for a new RR. Overlap would kill it.

  • Ronebadger

    Some flight to safety, huh?

  • ridingwaves

    more likely everyone is pissed in NYC about rain all summer…..

  • StockTalker

    /GC, say go time 5 min

  • StockTalker

    Those candles on the dollar chart were bulls taking profit.

  • Darkthirty

    c wave ? target 2550 …../ or stays in the channel with a reverse at 2790

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s actually worse.

  • Tomcat

    Seems like the Saudis saved the day again???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Absolutely

  • Yoda

    Congrats on your trade Mark

  • Yoda

    No doubt about it

  • StockTalker

    Panic selling in gold, watch for a hard bounce.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t know…. this has the look of continuation to me for gold and gold stocks. GDX is below horizontal support right now…. any more and it is a LONG drop down https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9502e040d9e0658f44f3993f7826c35bae9be47e435cefb48cf0ea7b8f29260.png

  • HD

    3 waves back. .382 at 2818

  • Tomcat

    Exactly, there is no technical context to go long gold other than the “oversold/capitulation bs”.Better odds of going long market than mess around with gold. Plus there moooore oversold PMs than gold…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Weird deal because for time being miners remain in the 2 year range, and gld in 5 year range. $ appears yet to meet its objective.

  • Tomcat

    Pot is winning, and winning big, there is just no other way to put it:
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CGC?p=CGC&.tsrc=fin-srch

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Down to support and daily 55 ema. Looking for the lower high to short on a bounce. As the Chief aptly named this thread “Dead Cat Bounce” JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/07f18887886d31b9167c80fcc0f4e13f57a3490344f2f856071debbf387fca30.png

  • HD

    Side note. Both gaps down were exactly the same 17 points SPX. JIC you thought buyers and sellers were actually moving the market… BOTs

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Miss type BAC not SPX
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Here is SPX Down to support and 34 ema. Like BAC will short a lower high on a dead cat bounce JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6629543beead2d7b361a8afbcdce485eb33a0d40b572c895a0895616c0e7ce7.png

  • StockTalker

    Short again, holding gold over as the dollar sells off now.

  • HD

    No surprise- sellers killed it there. Itโ€™s piling up today.

  • StockTalker

    These are real sellers moving this market now.

  • StockTalker

    Play there emotions, not yours:)

  • StockTalker

    Panic day!

  • StockTalker

    First W is complete in the dollar, gold long ST.

  • StockTalker

    Cash is the best for that:)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pull your weight, damn it!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was in a fair amount of TVIX from yesterday right at the close so I took 6$ today… BUT…. I am not proud of my trading lately. Basically I grew frustrated and started ignoring my rule set. My trade was luck and of the type that is not worthy of the excellent values taught here. I only post to reaffirm that I am getting back to my rule set and the values that have helped me.

  • HD

    I prefer BOTs, more predictable. If we sell thru some key levels Iโ€™ll be happy to join you for the ride down.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I would be surprised if there is any more teeth in today’s close.
    we shall see!

    LKGB off the fan line, so sweet!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a2030820747f14f1ae8225184920b2040da74761fbea5eeda0a1722301729e05.png

    on a monthly chart, JUL/AUG may be a failed move higher after all.
    -GG

  • HD

    Flat 08, again.

  • StockTalker

    Think positive:)

  • StockTalker

    She is going to rip!

  • BKXtoZERO

    2790-2800 previous low seems to be the obvious trigger

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    Interesting day to read the tea leaves on metals. UGLD down 4% USLV down 12% NUGT down 15% !!! I am excited because we know these dollar spikes don’t last. We see the previous panics. This will be THE trade when the time comes. Great to be alive and in position to capitalize.

  • Ronebadger

    …just sell it…

  • StockTalker

    Bottom going to fall out.

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah, but what do we do when our paper money is no good? What do we do if our plastic cards are no good? What do we do if the gov’t outlaws private ownership of PMs? (Just gather your family and hug them, I guess)

  • HD
  • Ronebadger

    You’re right…but everyone know this…let’s see what happens. IF, IF we bust thru 2790 with conviction, there is no support for a while (until 2600?)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD Your chart closely matches my two SPX charts below
    JULIE

  • HD

    Actually very few know this. The twitter gurus are pumping the markets and their books to no end. Bears were even getting mocked here yesterday. Just saying.

  • HD

    Nice chart.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RB No matter where the bounce occurs the true short will be a lower high.on the bounce.
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    My name is Ronebadger….and, I’m a permabear… (HI! RONEBADGER!)

  • BKXtoZERO

    You are in fashion at the moment. Maybe back to your closet if we hold

  • HD

    Ha. Nice. Iโ€™m no perma but I generally think itโ€™s an easier trading environment when volatility is higher. So I guess I prefer the downside too. Just buying and holding is like fishing w a bobber…

  • Ronebadger
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB IMO pattern recognition the bounce will be at the confluence of the 55 ema and lower Bollinger Band per chart below Then up to approx 2832 Just Saying RB
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    That is actually how I know it is time:)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2777 is another target
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Damn bulls

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    okaaaay.
    it’s dead in here. Reminds me of a mass die-off.

    http://static.flickr.com/78/168299946_d000f1a2e6.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    In the Spirit-of-BL,

    this is the kind of crap that chaps my hide.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/168c94e55de8c0f5d6c563d2a0dc834da2f9a5ae8113218d790a0a36d0c0041c.png

    Gold has essentially, for bad or good, been dropping for 18 weeks.
    AND Now, NOW!? ..you see this pop up on the radar?
    what a friend in-deed. couldn’t have done that a month ago eh?
    they are not, your friends.

    Muwahaaha. We may be close.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST So far looks corrective down to support and 34 ema
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Ya, got to give them a stab at it. Holding short, this thing can still drop fast.

  • Ronebadger

    Looks like someone has been “flocked”…they do that to properties around here.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2829 and 2832 must get above
    JULIE

  • HD

    You want to buy my physical silver? I have a lot. Grrr

  • HD

    Whipsaw Wednesday amigo. See how they close em.

  • StockTalker

    Dollar ready to burn down, last shake out for gold bugs.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Mole, the Zero page is showing your teamviewer userid and pw

  • Ronebadger

    Sit on it for a rainy day…don’t worry, it will rain one day…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Also known as Wacky Wednesday
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    This tape smells real bad

  • BKXtoZERO

    Maybe a delayed effect of my Eagles beating his Patriots. He said he was fine and accepted it but maybe he is in seclusion awaiting Tom Brady and the eagles preseason. rematch on thursday to come back out

  • ridingwaves

    mocked? or pointing out top calling for last 3 months….so far the bears haven’t really done anything of note since april….

  • HD

    2-15 handle rallies… hmmm

  • StockTalker

    Sold the /YM now too.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today’s bounce off a lower trend line ; 34 ema and support. Again the decline now looks corrective DARN ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c6aea74bf38453704bde19a5d85e401122ee71402b2885b41f29f618da1be0a.png

  • HD

    Fair enough. Think itโ€™s actually been a fairly balanced market all year. Plenty of opportunities both ways.

  • BKXtoZERO

    He is a good trend follower. He talked of whipsaw but once in… His system was good at keeping him in. I bet he is short gold and has been in for a while if I know him

  • StockTalker

    1180 stick in the mud or else.

  • StockTalker

    Burn you bitch

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • StockTalker

    More to come, holding over night.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    is that a hot redhead?
    ๐Ÿ˜‰
    or a smokey brunette?

  • Ronebadger

    or, a red hothead…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Even in Arizona, we got sum last week.
    you have no idea

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST Going to watch 2829 and or 2832
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gotta up vote your ensusiasm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It may be over. Change my name to Oil Gerb.
    haven’t seen RSI on the 10 year chart in a looong time.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b3acee210e595f6a9b6827bda266f3096174f56054370144a4104c52a494d41.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice Gerb… It has that feeling. I tried starting a big position in silver as an investor but the trader in me keeps things close. That and Shinnick politely pointing out that it was a dumb fuck move. Thank you Mark!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually have no idea where the fuck this came from!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    So your password is BKXtozero huh….

  • Ronebadger

    OK, now what?!? Still on a VIX Sell Signal? Seriously, I can’t remember seeing a pattern like this before.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e285071fab98adcb25396e20975e5cbc0d1df681f62338667ee6832872d7fa1.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is very weird – I have no idea why Teamviewer launched itself.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Question – did you see anyone accessing the system and looking around or did the screen remain the same with that TW window showing?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, assuming the original signal was valid – it may have played out already or is in the process of doing so.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I didn’t look. I just saw Emuppers post. Was just kidding you on BKX. That sucks….. Passwords are for changing.

  • Ronebadger

    TIme will tell. Wacky pattern though…you got your hammers, your topping tails, your dojis, etc. For the most part, as long as the EOD signal is above the midline, I’m short.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole asked someone to look into historical vix sell signals. I pulled up a 10 year or longer daily chart and this along with my recent 2 years or so tell me that candle work TA is useless on VIX. Just go by ES TA. I saw plenty of signals that did not have hammer bottoms etc…. 2790 will decide this

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I wasn’t watching all day, but what I did see were no changes after that showed up.

  • ridingwaves

    a good weekly inside candle that could play out either way, a bull mini run back to the gap 3014 and fail from there or cross last weeks candle low at 2690 and plunge to 2200, the chande trend hasn’t been down here in last 3 years..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/294995562ed916e54ff031d6138fae4f87dfca0101b856721bccc7d6cb8017d9.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    We have SP volume hole below today’s lows.

  • Mark Shinnick

    We are all fuck-ups….from there its EZ to love each other.

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