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The Worst Of Both Worlds
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The Worst Of Both Worlds

by The MoleAugust 16, 2018

Equity markets in particular, since the end of January, have been going above, below, and beyond in order to test our collective mettle. I have to concede that I have rarely worked this hard to squeeze out an edge and to retain a reasonable technical perspective. Meanwhile the prospect of final resolution (up or down) continues to be only a few trading days away. Only to then again evade us of course.

Extended periods of high volatility whipsaw and uncertainty can seriously exhaust your emotional reserves and frustrate even the most stone cold traders. Thus I strongly suggest that everyone stick with the script and to choose each campaign wisely.

At the same time it’s important that you allow for sufficient downtime and non-trading related activities in order to compensate for the daily onslaught of uni-directional market volatility. Don’t stare at your charts all day attempting to find order in what most likely is simply low participation noise.

So of course we got served the worst of both worlds. A sudden drop that looked like game over for the bulls followed by a reversal that I am sure managed to lure in a boatload of bears expecting the floor to give way. I actually did not go short yesterday, after my stop out at ISL, as a convincing spike high at ES 2820 did occur before the close of the session. Overnight the E-Mini then blasted higher and is now back to whence it came yesterday morning.

Now I stared at this chart for quite a while this morning before I decided upon a course of action, if there was one to be taken. In the end I reminded myself that realized volatility was still in the process of expanding and that the E-Mini had once again returned to my original inflection point. Thus I popped a handful of Zoloft and then took the entry that to me at least felt the worst emotionally:

Long here with a stop at ES 2820 again. Almost the identical entry, thus emotionally for me at least it’s difficult to take given that I got stopped out yesterday at ISL. Should I get stopped out a 2nd time I will flip for a short position with a stop near 2843. The potential of three stop outs in a row has occurred to me but I’ve done well with equities over the past few months, despite the messy tape plus I am only playing with 0.5% position sizing due to the increase in RV.

Bottom Line:

This is an extremely difficult entry to take during a confusing market period, which requires a bit of finesse and thus is only recommended if you really know what are doing. There’s no shame in staying away, as a matter of fact a much more conservative and higher probability long entry would be to wait for a breach of ES 2843, as that would hand the reigns back in the hands of the bulls.

Whatever you do, don’t chase this tape and don’t try to double down on a loss as one of the noobs insinuated here the other day. Losing is part of trading, and in my humble experience, exotic capital commitment practices are unable to offset taking hare brained entries based on cognitive sunk cost biases. So keep it frosty, your stops loose, your tray tables in the upright position, and stick with the plan.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Benson Burns

    The triangle on RTY makes the most sense to me atm. Not withstanding I was belted by the rise in IV last night particularly being late in my campaign. Turned a handy winner into a loser. Lesson learned re hubris after the +20 points the day before…..

  • kim
  • evilasevildoes

    options ex

  • DaVerg

    Is US dollar inversely related to energy/crude oil futures movement ? Strong dollar sends crude down ? As we have seen as a result of recent dollar action rising, preceding the drop in crude over the last few days ?

  • randomuser6789

    A barrel of oil is worth a barrel of oil. If dollars are more valuable, it takes fewer of them to buy a barrel of oil or an ounce of gold or a bushel of wheat.

  • StockTalker

    She is going down, dollar didn’t flop and /NQ showing weakness. Stopped out and short again. Time to move this market bears.

  • HD

    don’t chase the tape…. buys 20 handle gap up?

  • HD

    Non EW POV, 10 handle rally would put SPX back into R. aka Julie’s LH. Sellers should defend IMO. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5413d5ef24da28f7ed27d2852f6a161af530e35a585512c1a1981759ae6e4067.png

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    feeling dizzy yet?

  • ridingwaves

    the more the emerging markets show weakness, the more money flows into indexes in the US….the blow off top is coming…..final nail in coffin for bears….. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/859a56ea8231bcc01ddc23e4455965e27567a028516eb760777c5628b720fbd1.jpg

  • Tomcat

    I think the point is: do not fight the tape, but rather follow it
    Based on my own experience, results tend to favor those who follow the tape…

    I am a victim, of doing the opposite…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, Phenomenal. She did a lot of good.

    https://youtu.be/cGXU7268Z50?t=11

  • Tomcat

    Nice move on $PL…

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s been a interesting narrative….sure would be amazing to experience.

  • ridingwaves

    who hasn’t….the key is recognizing the herd is just another moving thing…..like water buffalo in the Serengeti looking for water to survive, sometimes they find it, many times not…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Took my same exact TVIX entry, L 34.08. Groundhog Day trade

  • ridingwaves

    probably only my view, so discount it a lot….

  • ridingwaves

    I always forget all the blue brothers cast…..that movie was loaded….

  • Ronebadger

    SPY volume pretty light on the way up today…Yesterday’s down day had some decent volume

  • Tomcat

    no f**in idea about buffaloes, but I get your point…

  • Tomcat

    Unless you were talking about this buffalo:
    http://dennisgartman.blogspot.com/2018/08/on-tesla-disney-netflix-and-more.html?utm_source=dlvr&utm_medium=twitter
    One of this days, he will be right, its just a matter of tiiiime

  • nirav777

    Participation on Zero seem light divergent.. if you will but how much of that is correlated with it being OPEX week

  • Yoda
  • Yoda

    everybody get a chance to get screwed during this OPEX week

  • BKXtoZERO

    added other half position at ES 2846, TVIX 33.7

  • Yoda

    lol

  • Darkthirty

    good stuff, raised on Motown music………..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    10 handle rally. See if the BOTs show.

  • HD

    Agree. The entire bull market was gap ups so makes sense to some extent for larger timeframe

  • HD

    Bingo

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    This whole Euro experiment feels like a situation where the banker has overextended credit to the drunkard down the street, who will never repay, ever. And instead of cutting the losses and being financially responsible, is pushing the situation to ever increasing insanity, such as bank bail-in’s stealing the future depositors money that hasn’t even arrived yet.
    Am I entertained!?!?

  • Yoda

    QE is there to stay in EU

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Weird – on the way up it always thins out. Looks like distribution but once we breach ES 2843 the bulls ought to be able to push it across the goal line – if not they’re in trouble.

  • BKXtoZERO

    “A bunch of Crazed Dogs out there” crazy tape! see if they can hold this…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wiQ18jDWqo

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Uuuuhhh – no.

  • Yoda

    It did help European exporters, mainly Germany I guess

  • Yoda

    lol. Thanks for the comment. XD

  • ridingwaves

    it was a forex traders dream come true….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crazy tape – how’s my crew?

  • Yoda

    kinda missing BL around these parts. πŸ™

  • randomuser6789

    Where is Bobby?

  • Yoda

    watching the shit show

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah that really sucks. All out childhood heroes are dropping off. Starting to feel old! What’s worse though is that there’s nothing to fill those shoes, popular music these days is mind bogglingly bad. We were so spoiled!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    One of my favorite movies of all time πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My favorite by far:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn_PF4L470w

    They don’t make music like this anymore!

  • BKXtoZERO

    watching the VIX (as usual) on the 6 month chart it is back to the middle band and at recent horizontal support. I got lucky the other day but will be keeping this close. People want new highs and every time they are all in, MM pulls the rug on them as too many are in.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0662852bf5324ef933fecd84d1593cef6c153036b31238a02961be37269ab722.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    pretty much all forms of communication have been digitally run over…..1960’s-early 90’s was the apex of music artists…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BKX – there’s nothing wrong with looking for IV mean reversion. However remember that it’s not an instrument that gets bought and sold, it’s a computed index.

    Try this, put the VIX against the VXV which gives you the IV term structure. Put a BB around that and see if that helps you. Doing that basically gives you a more in depth look at how options are being priced horizontally and vertically.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think he’s taking the summer off. He’s smarter than me!

  • HD

    Today’s gap makes 4:5 gaps this month exactly 17 handles. Can’t fight the machines.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I always just look at ES, I see your studies and I will do as you say and try to start seeing with that lens as well. Thanks!

  • BKXtoZERO

    out TVIX first half entry with .58 cent loss. Crazed dogs here on ES

  • Yoda

    We are about to close one now on the spoos. Curious about what happens next.

  • nirav777

    Didn’t we have this two days ago before the mkt puked in globex of 43?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e8afe259d1314792c06d0977f8d0f77ecf371862a3472c9438f3cd61356d8c7.png

  • ridingwaves

    whats nuts is there are plenty of symbols that are oversold looking for something to push them up….china trade talks resuming, hate to say it but Trump is playing them perfectly, they have everything to lose, little to gain….thus why they are back…

  • ridingwaves

    they are eating you up, I have UVXY going to 5 before this all ends…its near 9 now….
    the animal spirit economy in the US is making up for any and all bs news….

  • StockTalker

    Dollar rules all, she will tank.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Think or swim is such a pain… tried changing settings to compare/divide by…. lost my settings. I’ll try it in stockcharts tonight. thanks!

  • Yoda

    flip a coin

  • HD

    Comcast finally sent me a new gateway. Went from 60 mbps to 150 mbps. It doesn’t suck.

  • BKXtoZERO

    not letting them eat me up ever again but I get the gist…. lucky hit yesterday though (he he he)

  • HD

    Playing them perfectly has a real world cost though-to us. There are already 1300 + products that cost us, here in the USA, considerably more than just a few months ago as a direct result of tariffs. So the Optics of β€œwinning” the trade war up for debate.

  • Yoda

    For me, if the tape stays above VWAP today I would see it as bullish, and the opposite if it falls below

  • BKXtoZERO

    1st (genuine thanks) How do you arrive at estimates? I just looked at PnF, no new pattern. what method do you use to arrive at long term targets? Thanks, in advance….

  • Yoda

    To me a trade war will only serve to further isolate the US from the rest of the world. There is so much weight that the US can pull on its own without buckling.

  • Edgy

    I didn’t authorize release of my picture for this article.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yesterday SPX I posted 2829 and or 2832 as levels to watch. Sure enough they gaped it up on the open 2831
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Edgy … Very good looking guy ! Why not !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Great post last night $SSEC. Very important to watch as is $HSI
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    no debate so far, how many of those 1300 products have u bought or your friends, buying stuff is boring, I’m 0-1300…..

  • ridingwaves

    more like a right of balance, we have the lowest tariffs in the world for an industrial company….

  • Darkthirty

    Used to be that way……………..

  • bankwalker

    The only solution I’ve seen for ratio charts is stockcharts.com …

  • ridingwaves

    linear slope progression, its pointing there….you reminded me to look at PNF, haven’t in a while for reverse vix instrument. mid term election years are bullish, posted a while ago….keep watching this for first signs of animal spirits lagging

    https://www.bts.gov/content/freight-transportation-services-index-june-2013-june-2018

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A bounce off the confluence of the 89 ema ; lower Bollinger Band and lower Raff Regression Channel Looking for a lower high to short on the bounce JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a065359b6d67bf957e8306798f798ec63ff83cfa8b30a4cb393c2f9e43ea95a8.png .

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not really…its out there and I hear of it. We also know that there really is no alternative; that it must eventually happen as we have seen so many markets play-out before.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG HD Time to take a vacation from the hot AZ temps .Meet up https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3be737aa761e71f97322b14d715387039c53c469c7c90c2e7b73708602ea5cf.png for cross country skiing in some great MT powder. JULIE

  • HD

    RW. Food prices are at a 2 year high. I assume you eat. Lol.

  • HD

    Find me an elk tag and I’ll fly out πŸ™‚

    It’s actually been quite nice during the monsoons last few weeks.

  • Yoda

    Economic con-men are visibly upset that they cannot get to short the TRY as before to force Turkey into the IMF’s hands and a raise of their interest rates. Cue the WH with additional sanctions. Erdogan is a dickhead but seeing Turkey resisting under the globalists’ pressure makes me grin. BTW, this thing has 0 to do with the wanted release of the pastor, but rather with Turkey not playing ball with the US on Iran’s sanctions.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Drool… Can’t wait for downhill ski season!

  • BKXtoZERO

    RW… I respect you as one of the best here, so answer is genuine not arrogant, life isn’t always linear and as for politics, there are 2 factions and one of them hates the other…. there are probably enough that would LOVE to see a crash to blame on the other. Both of my statements are worthless as prophecy but I keep open to all ideas. levered VIX products sure do have that downward slop though 100% fact

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Captain I love downhill.Fortunate to live adjacent to two great lodges. Big Sky and Bridger Bowl. The U.S. Olympic trains at both and vicinity. The ice skaters train at the High Altitude Training Center in Butte. Unreal to watch them as the public is invited
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Damn GG, you scored a date

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda You are invited too ! It would be a great time !
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Woohoo!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Not sure where I’m doing my winter trip yet this year. Did Breckenridge two years in a row with my son and his girlfriend. Skied 8 days in a row both trips, all day long. Not sure if my knees will take that much longer…

    Trying to get my wife interested in downhill. We’ve a small hill a mile from our place that is a good for learning and staying in shape. Only thing I can’t get here is the altitude.

    Here are a few pix from last year, top of Peak 6, and my new personal speed record from a run on Peak 10 πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/969b89e14b99a5fcc00b70e24bcdc2585b208bb1ff5b6bb637820a193096db7b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/85303a34a02ffcc276c1fc8974f5785d343430cfcf2e81f23e3c16ee8c4202e8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1baa0fa2834805ad969dfd754257098f167b814f5e8e7a90fcc41076180fe76d.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Great.. then I am not retarded. THANK YOU!!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO The bounce off lower gap window. Tough resistance mid channel matching the daily 5 ema and a resistance. Going above going to watch the confluence of the 21 and 55 emas. Also the upper trend line of the parallel channel drawn JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe1058888fdbf02275f795d14df444730fa6538f7952109d9cd931739e10a3b1.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    HD, that’s inflation though….not 1300 products from china,
    I agree with you on inflation, I feel its roaring, of course the fed doesn’t count food prices….or homes for that matter…..

    as for trade, 1972 on, we helped China grow into what it is, we off shored the heck out of everything, gave them production, mfg and industrialization blueprints etc…Don’t start me on Nafta….Ross Perot was dead right on that one..actually he’s humble and right a lot
    https://youtu.be/7-W4GWjN2kg?t=9m20s

  • Yoda

    my kind of spot

  • Yoda

    bots are clearly running the tape today

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice GG Always preferred the mountains to the beach I grew up in N.W. Oregon and went to the Oregon Coast all the time But the allure of the mountains Yes !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Inflation could be part of it but also the tariffs are directly affecting farmers via machinery, vehicle, and food processing equipment. Those costs are passed on to us. Why food is up 10% you. Not to mention 18 B$ Farm bail out that β€œwe the people” will pay- Big picture. It’s gonna cost us more. A lot more. Also, just because they are products 1 individual does not use does not
    Mean that the increased cost is not real. Health care equipment almost exclusively from China. Next X-ray or CT or whatever will have those new tariffs on it.

  • ridingwaves

    look BKX, I’m no better than anyone here or in the universe, I suck at something quite a lot, (hmmmm, that probably doesn’t look good on a forum).. my take is when they reverse split vix instruments, its to short it lower and take the occasional punches nothing less….that is one emotional trade, bio tech is similar somewhat so I do kind of watch it…

    Mole knows better than all of us on Volatility so best to follow him on that…just don’t let them take your money with that evil little carnard….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Very nice Captain
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Montana girls !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    its funny but I can go to the Chinese market down the street and get the same fruit at sometimes $1 less a lb, junk food is expensive, local food not so much…going out to eat expensive, home food not so much…

    plenty of machinery made here and I’ll have my CT via non melamine certified machine from US, France, Germany etc
    ….actually better manufactured equipment lasts longer, like the old craftsman tools, I look for them at all garage sales…

    I agreed with u on inflation…but does this look good to you? a bit unfair perhaps?

    129,893. – 505,470.0 in billions

  • Yoda

    lower highs and lower lows

  • HD

    No worries. I think we are 2 different topics. Agree we will β€œwin war” trade will be more balanced etc… I am pointing out the real world cost of that war. No denying it. We will mark this time in history as when prices soared.

    That should be good for stocks. πŸ™‚

  • Yoda

    the one on the right is ready to jump in a hot tub πŸ˜›

  • Tomcat

    Yes, unless you are living in a bunker and eating cow sh*t, then you are absolutely buying imported goods. Actually come to think of it, even cow sh*t is somehow related to the fertilizer for the stuff they eat…so really there is no escape. This is a global economy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys What do you think SPX going to upper trend line of channel ? The decline looks corrective as posted yesterday JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4cdc7662247d69bd9886e75f808a1cdd400b4f0959f7377873f2affcbffaea2.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I shorted (small position) SPX failure at the upper gap window. Will add below 2834.83 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ef2277a4cae6ed5557b95338219a862c7eabac657bd2aed0b516813cd5ebc25.png

  • Yoda

    we got a VWAP breach. Time to pay attention.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Yoda I too watch VWAP
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    We did not help China do shit. We exploited the shit out of them as we do to this day. Look no further than the two largest companies in the world (Apple and Amazon) with a market cap >$2T, 2 fckin trillion dollars and those are American dollars both dependent on chinese made goods. Because shit, who wants to work for less than $1 dollar per day/hour… Yes, America was, is and will continue to win…

  • Yoda

    some quite interesting, but not at all surprising stats, about win rates of retail traders in the forex world:
    https://forexlive.com/education/!/a-reminder-to-us-all-trading-is-not-easy-20180816
    what it also tells me is to avoid using the platforms with the lowest win rates

  • Yoda

    Wall Street does not represent America, but Wall Street

  • ridingwaves

    I guess you were riding bikes in Bejing in the 70’s with Kissinger or something….no one said its not a global economy….no one said capitalism didn’t occur there also, money was falling from trees….but we definitely changed the course of the country when Nixon and Kissinger opened up that channel….

  • HD

    Good call yesterday Julie. I would like to do the 5th wave calculation but can not quantify the low yet. That upper TL is probably close though.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC My target 31.03
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    you gonna pound em into submission?

  • Tomcat

    No I wasn’t, I was born in the 70s, but in the late 80s I was kicking Chinese ass, literally, although I did get my ass handed to me more than I can remember. But that is not the point, the point is that America has been winning and that is based on facts.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK The Full Monte Our motto BKX to Zero ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s the cougar in you
    LOL.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No one here has been shorting gold at least that I have seen. DUST has been on fire yet no players here. I was meaning to scalp but am often just centered on vix

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t think we have any telecom fans, still.. fwiw
    [VZ]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VZ&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p47703709354

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is looking pretty dismal:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63263da2a528693ef050f17b4979d8e28612581789b4aaf78b5b067613841be9.png

    There is no mojo in this tiny advance.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Great! I am IN!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief The island reversal is gonna be tough Thanks Chief for the charts
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn it – should have kept my mouth shut!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not since the telecom bubble… Stocks like CIEN and JDSU…7 others that are gone…. Avanex or something…. People got killed

  • BKXtoZERO

    In like flies on pooh

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I use to play, but after that 10:1 reverse?

    I don’t play with penny stocks.
    =P
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUST&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42587961008

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Kudra probably finally got his money back on dust

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good cougar eye.

  • Yoda

    Beware of the dwarf that carries a long sword πŸ˜‰

  • HD

    Nice trade Julie!

    Guess OPEX is a big deal this time. Like yoda said earlier. Everyone gets a chance to get screwed this week.

    HNS pattern presented this AM in play under 2835 pivot.

  • Yoda
  • HD

    Doesn’t matter how many ginger mullets BTFD. Sellers made sure it closed below R.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work ! Everyone Have A great Rest Of Day ! Race ya to the bottom https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d43e48b5f0c3fefcdfe771f4bef97d54788d38712be852227efdd3b641f04a3.png GG ! JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Go GG Go ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    one hell of a divergence, but the recent breakdown is also related to the USD strength over the last few months

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only if the hot tub is ready.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great chart GG Thanks ! I spaced out Copper
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX and copper are priced in USD.
    IMHO that makes your point mute.
    but I’ll +1 you for after school credit!

  • bankwalker

    moot

  • randomuser6789

    USD strength could not account for 22% of change.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yoda in swim trunks. What is seen, cannot be UNSEEN.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    China ?
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The “NAKED EYE” LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Give a holler so we know all is well
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    We have SP volume hole below today’s lows.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Did you see that on ZH? Busted……

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    like I said…I steal most everything!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and Platinum (snort!)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Assuming that copper demand stays the same, if the USD strengthen against other currencies, the value of copper per ton in USD is lower

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’ll be taking the day off as attempting to add any further analysis to this mess does not make much sense. Plus I have more video editing to attend to. Finally it’s late summer and I’ve slaved all through summer. Keep it frosty and don’t get caught in the swings! See you all on Monday!

  • Tomcat

    You did a nice job on that video for the Vixen. I am sure a lot traders have gotten their panties wet and can’t wait to try it πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh you saw that?

  • Tomcat

    Yes, and I am getting around on the beard too

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually had it a lot longer but ended up cutting a lot of it. Maybe I’ll grow it out in the winter.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I was only doing jdst from around 51 until exit around 82.

  • Tomcat

    Oh I remember…
    I think there is a fine line between looking like somebody with wisdom and a hobo…

    But I am biased against beards because in my sport that gives the opponent an advantage when you are grappling…

  • Tomcat

    Are the bears hibernating today???

  • Tomcat

    RW, I was going to say yesterday, if there was a good time to pounce on Tesla, would have been this week with all that shit with SEC…
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA?p=TSLA&.tsrc=fin-srch-v1

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Another reason I trimmed it down, yes. On top as well as you could see. One of my Systema instructors kept grabbing my hair – and for some reason I’m super sensitive on my scalp. So eventually I just said ‘fuggit’ and buzzed it – LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Let’s hope because I want this bitch to resolve. Which of course is why it’ll dance sideways πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    thumb in the eye/finger in the ear makes for a good grip…………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Tesla?
    yes, how is that to-the-moon $500, “funding secured” rascal doing?
    πŸ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69674c5a13d780a7484b7853ab2cfe2c0cb8e904cf29799453a6eade54fbca43.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The bears want to play, but the pussies won’t have none of that.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv3tJXpDlEM

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was a great show.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi TC I be here
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Setups seem to be eventually favoring some more volatility crush.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Bulls struggling USO very strong resistance 13.97
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mark….. did I thank you for pointing out how dumb it was that I wanted to accumulate a large position in silver 3-4 weeks ago?? Thanks dude! what a car crusher….

  • Tomcat

    where the hell was I when that advice was given…
    instead I was looking at seasonality and that other BS…instead of focusing on the chart

  • Tomcat

    I like how the 10y is shaping up. I would be L at these levels.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was looking at seasonality mainly, then for back up, some metals sites from some of the more objective analysts…. they were saying that COTs looked positive. So now we know what that is worth!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GUYS SLV Weekly chart bouncing off the lower trend line of a bullish falling wedge pattern. Weekly RSI below 30 SLV Could go to 13 support. I may start small accumulation here and hold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/319eb37e572a339cc731f890aa6b4d15dc96c4cbd82d0c52c6e72e42a540c9ce.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    I appreciate that πŸ™‚ Probably nothing beats the most simplistic honest periodic assessment of what price is actually doing. That situation was a set-off a couple years in the making. The larger situation still has been a few years now in the making.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys You know like a guy and gal on a first date …. Ease into it ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    ridingwaves Julie 35 – 25 – 36 a month ago
    ridingwaves Julie 35 – 25 – 36 a month ago
    staying away from gold or silver comments, not going to look at it until August…good luck…still a bit away….

    August is better month for gold…..not far off now….they are going to hurt gold bugs that said it can’t go lower……I can see the glee in the bankers eyes…..

    I should have shorted it…like Mark did…..too many irons in fire can lead to missed opportunities

  • Tomcat

    Sure but “some day” DO NOT bet it all…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Weekly chart putting things in perspective. Last two candles (including this week completing today) indicate the struggle between the Bulls and Bears. Both beating each other up. When both are beat up can lead to a decline i.e. Jesse Livermore made a fortune waiting for this occurrence to short You can see the importance of the weekly 21 and 55 emas https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/beec3e137d7e4c6d5fc049c630376efdb5ad948f686fd69d099fc3e227324ce2.png Just Saying JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gold is below horz support with large ugly candle in a pre-existing downtrend. I am staying away from metals with both hands until better context is created. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e6b12a7ad724ebec58337032b755f928252f5107a8e1193cc597a8f34f17c41.jpg

  • Tomcat
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I have been watching GOLD too and took a small loss on a calculated trade. As my husband says A trade is never wrong if you know why you made the trade. If you are wrong not wrong long. I have plenty of dry powder left. Let’s watch for a bullish close above the weekly resistance shown on your chart BK Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that ema 55 is gold. if the bottom ever falls out, that should be the one in your diary, err trading log to watch.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Right on TC The big boys do not go all in but accumulate quietly not bringing attention to their positions
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Thanks Very interesting with Bollinger Bands
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    you are definitely a cougar

  • ridingwaves

    1174 and 1135 look like resting areas….pps volume below 1120 gets thin..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Whew taking a break from my crazy job hunting and home hunting for this week. Staying in a studio 6 Has a small kitchen but costs too much but better than regular motels can rent at a weekly rate, but without job income, I can’t stay here for long. aaaahhhhh the weekend. getting my room organized. getting everything I don’t need right now into storage and everything I need into my room for the next week. Thanks, Julie for information on SPX very nice

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Gartman should use this chart. (before opening his trap)
    the weekly 55 is some serious ju-ju in the past.
    cross it, and it’s game over man.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a79f5bf1af09aa6505b281d6260530d5e3133af11bccef14fc2f1411fad66077.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it GG You the “Man” GG and Everyone Have A Great Weekend and Thanks Everyone for your charts and commentary
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Like…..social lubrication ?

  • nirav777
  • ridingwaves

    I might use that……social lubrication, in lust or love its trojan facebook protection….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW and Everyone … I am drooling waiting to short BAC on the bounce off the 55 ema. I stated previously initial target 31.03 which is the conversion line (8) matching the 50% retracement. 31.25 is the 61.8% retracement closely matching the gap Volume supportive of a bear flag https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48a04e99de7aaeb569ee4acd68dfb9581e3ee9b7ba69ee4e798171648ffe6f6a.png JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    closed that gap….amazing stuff…..as we get close to a cyclical top, the wolves will come out and make many symbols start acting like that…

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I would have to be Hotel Corolla. And, I may have to do that in mid Sept. if I don’t find a cheaper place or a new job. Thanks GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Darn ! Nod to the Bulls but day not over Fills the gap of the island reversal. Now PMO may have bottomed and Stochs turn up at 50 which is bullish. BUT Volume not supportive esp with Opex Friday.Quite often the Monday following Opex is negative. I have a small short position SPX at the gap failure yesterday and will retain The bounce was off the 34 ema Not going to be run off esp with this volume looks like short covering going into the weekend https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/739c1f0e9ef14b70d674ed2416cb98501814fcb1dc395467d6fe963e6f1f2c7b.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sharon You will find a job
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    same boat…. I put on a small VIX position, small enough that if I am right it will still be cool but small enough not to hurt me either. One hell of a chart pattern. I expect break out more than drop.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys let’s see if USO can close above resistance and 5 ema at 13.77 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3ff39a47aba2e965e3df8b7a6216f074d0566002c8f87fd9afe734531114edf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’ve got till early December, then it get’s a little chilly in Dallas.

    (no pressure)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f138018abcd7ab9c2db4e589037cca706fe80bc2c7bc201fce9028231444887.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Humm…next time I want to tell a Hate monger attorney what I think, this might come in handy πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Not hurt either. As stated previous thread would add to short with a bearish close below the 5 ema. Right on BK as we have a plan and not jumping around like a headless chicken. MACD has not crossed above it’s signal line yet. That will be the signal to cover
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hedge with a wool blanket.
    πŸ˜‰

  • HD

    Sorry I’m late. Shot an 80. So close to breaking 80…
    OPEX week. SPX opened 2835 pivot, 2803 L, 2856 H, 53 point range. The EW was early at 2808 and may be early again here at 28(55) w symmetry, fibs and corrective 3 wave rally. See what they look like Sunday eve. Have a G1.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b244411935e8f2b9156324fc2f3fa1fc4fcc09e388adbd2e9b15a1d2f07e4f2.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/908e101f6323e33ca720ca450656e74f92853eb6081eeb0eb5cc586a8dedcc6a.png

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I already have my Corolla Hotel spot picked out. Right outside my oldest son’s house. I asked to pay them rent of $500 per month. Their 2 empty bedrooms are just too full of their stuff.

    Wow, and who stepped in a few years ago to assist in renting an apartment when his girlfriend kicked him out with 5 days to move out —-me

    It will be interesting to see how his current neighbors react to his Mother sleeping in her car outside of his residence. Karmic payback is coming.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I have 2 wool blankets plus a wonderful sleeping bag very warm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    This one’s for you Julie!
    The rich get richer
    [JWN]
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JWN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00300006965

    BAC is a frak’in chump. You should try women’s wear companies!

  • HD

    One more, completing EW analysis for GOOG
    Pretty close to nailing top -$10, symmetry completed ABC, if overlaps will draw fibs and start new wave.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e8920ca29d5a23768dfb4efa9bbf0334afe8b6b377f670924803edbbd58932e.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4f974ecff56268d128328e5a5c12179cf30dfbd672aa724859662acd332c5d6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Have a plan, live the plan!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cunning.
    you may be a future options trader!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS might be worth a shot here on a retest of support. MACD has turned up above signal line. As you can see the daily 5 ema has been a resistance. Needs a bullish close above 5 ema with strong volume JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5aa7264e6afee031b32b6eef4e844c0d78f81a366eeff1356526dc2bd613e961.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check, weekend coming up.

    This one’s for Sharon. I saw it several weeks ago, good thing I have a memory.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXy9HoWX0es

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well… here we are again with inverse volatility returned into January range.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You know very well I only shop at Saks Fifth Ave and Nieman Marcus ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Well I have been known to shop Coach too ! I have a reserved parking space at all three !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Enjoy your weekends everyone!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too Chief Thanks for everything !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Love this pullback into the close … Basically Break even. SPY volume lack of conviction
    Yeah !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t buy it.
    You don’t have time with all that adventuring.

    https://www.cabelas.com/
    Cabelas is more like it. I speculate Grizz has some mossy oak curtains about the house, with a stuffed dead animal head on the porch.
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    Gold looks to have hit 1159 in futures on wednesday night-thus am….I didn’t look until just now…..gaining some traction but needs some follow thru…will look at charts this weekend…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Weekend Update –

    (gawd that’s a bad haircut)

    Gold Weekly
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/946bc7f299c9ebbb334d50e70e4886523ead27e2dbecf6479b732a41e999e934.png

    Gold Daily
    gold and the USD have been inverse, perhaps a topper in the buck is a bottom in gold?
    time will tell.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7150f256062726e78de220101b066580cb1a8a2b005b040165b13bb99aea9b5.png

    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Anatomy of ERY

    In post analysis, the Raff Regression starting at the May gap down, was flat for 65 days.
    If you put a Keltner or EMA envelope on it using the same period, you can find the upper range nicely, by looking at the last bottom low/range (small ovals). A cross of a median does not guarantee an explosive move by itself. However, when you have an explosive move, having a tangible range maximum, is great for short term exits!

    In the end, matching book ends. (big ovals)
    -GG https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06bb4495bddd04a00cbf2d73d5b4586a86f2f14f2bfd7d2989271022796c1edb.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If you don’t like charts on 3x’s ETF’s.

    You could also play around with SPX.
    If you take the big drop this year, a horizontal Raff measures out to 83 days.
    The envelope is 80 sma, which I’ve been using for years.
    (and saved me a ton of coin around the late JUN period)

    Close enough for government work.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d99deb67ade9d3697198e15a79cef5688c6b8d1278513071f764b7cc8e4e780.png
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The 40 sma – 160 sma can be used in addition to the 80 sma
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    come to think of it, it works pretty dam good on FaceBook too.

    “this, is my religion”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eeb5406e1f8976e744590d3ee262b59eec00a880543e7cea68a6f87d3a7795bc.png
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, excellent point.

    sub-harmonics, or super-harmonics depending on one’s viewpoint.

    edit:
    https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0040162513003120-gr3.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My apologies if this takes all the fun out of the daily’s.

    Mole’s Zero is still very much required for intraday combat.
    I admire intraday gunslingers.

  • HD

    Expecting a decent wave this week.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jerv7gy5Msg

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    thanks that was wonderful. will be watching that a few times. I liked her education – just like mine. BS in Math and years of being an accountant.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if so, run.
    run like Hell.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-tIyA2M43I

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    well it certainly has spent more time under your top line and has been repelled more often than now. I am not sure what your time study suggests but I can be thick.