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Insanity

by The MoleOctober 21, 2009

It’s official – based on a commonly accepted definition of insanity which is to keep doing the same thing over and over expecting different results, I am truly insane. I just read Fly’s latest post and he’s spot on – we bears have been murdered in the past few months and we deserve it as the market not once confirmed to us that the tape was breaking its upside trend. Many folks are insulted by Fly’s inimical style – as he makes me look like an altar boy by comparison.  I however appreciate his candid POV on things – it’s doggy dog out there and ‘your best’ fucking sucks – LOL 🙂

Of course it’s way too late now to jump on the bullish bandwagon – and unless you’re completely loco like me don’t even think about trying your luck with short positions or puts unless the market starts telling you that the seven month long rocket launch module has finally burned out. As Mr. Fly put it – don’t complain that you’re a loser and don’t complain about the market being ‘impossible’ or ‘manipulated’ – it’s your own fault if you’re losing and you’ve got nobody else to blame. Mia culpa – I am sure – I kept out of a lot of trouble for months but I completely failed to trade what I was predicting, which was the DJI at 10,000.

There you have it – if you think I’m tough on you rats, trust me – I’m a lot tougher on myself.

Of course that doesn’t stop me from continuing to sniff out possible signs of temporary weakness. We might get a temporary drop soon – but unless we fall off the plate treat it as such, a temporary drop.

I’m sure few of you care about the ‘count’ these days – after all it’s mostly mental masturbation. We could turn at 1100 but then we also could shoot higher and then we’d have to update our count.

The message here is this, my stainless steel rats, don’t even think about shorting this tape unless we get confirmation and that won’t happen unless at least this long term channel gets kicked in the nuts. We are far far away from that happening and it seems it’s going to be a cold cold winter for the bears. Play it light and play it safe.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • LilSpaniard

    MBS QE (much bigger $) does not stop until March

  • mmTesla

    Very true mole, this tape is a double edged sword. Keeping it light until after QE stops this month.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    FWIW I bought back the 240's on ISRG and captured the IV crush on them, I should have done this sooner LOL
    But if you want to only do 1/2 that would make it a ratio backspread 😉

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    If you noticed the $DXY is now NOT keeping in lockstep with the equity tape. 🙂

  • flyboy08

    re-post

    Schwab shows…Buy 85/sell 90 at a credit of 1.23..not pulling the trigger, just wondering if this jives with your reversed numbers above? Schwab usually does everything differently:-(

  • insite

    it certainly as seemed to decouple a bit in the last hour….

  • gannsecret

    Mole,
    great post

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Wow… Has anybody mentioned what that could be a sign of? Not sure, but I think a few of us have a clue…

    Skål!

  • Scrillhog

    doggy dogg or dog-eat-dog, shnizzle?

  • Bart7

    I noted in earlier post that Stocks topped mid October 07, but the Dollar continued down with stocks and didn't bottom until April 2008… so the dollar and the market could start selling off in tandem again at some point? That would fake out a lot of folks…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yes, that has to start to happen eventually. Glad to see it happening now Good catch Insite 🙂

  • insite

    notice that earlier in the day, the volume spikes on SPY created green candles. now they are creating red candles.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No, but the 90 sell the 85, bearish trade Fly the other would be a bull put spread 🙂

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    The EURO made a higher high yes….depending on what we are trading….I see OIH, XOM is close to range bound.

  • insite

    absolutely! a falling dollar is only bullish for equities to a point. after that, people get scared and the correlation goes from -1 to +1

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Exactly whoooot hooooot 🙂

  • mmTesla

    I really hope the SEC actually passes and enforces regulation on dark pools and flash orders. Supposedly they agree to do so, we shall see.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    that would be terrific Bart 🙂

  • Brian_mk

    FBN flashed something about them voting 5 to 0 in favor of regulating dark pools

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Saw that too last night… Interesting… 😛

    We'll see if they can follow through.

    Skål!

  • onorio

    Seems we`re retracing from HOD, if this was the 1st wave of (v) i`ll watch for 1093 or 1091 to swith to long.

    Im actualy short from 1098

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    any particular reasons, other as a contraian good luck omen?

    I see a late november low that should be the real test. Am I wrong?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    /ES around 1090… Yep, spot on. This really appears to be a zig-zag retracing the prior move up. Nothing big.

    Skål!

  • mmTesla

    Would put the cherry on top if they did.

  • flyboy08

    OK Thanks…I don't see 90/85 “puts Nov 21” in my trading window….no worries..I'll figure it out.

  • Cypherd

    Any thoughts on the ESI Nov 110/105 put spread for earnings I floated earlier?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but which one? seems like a hard 4 on nsdaq

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah… seriously like Barry pointed out. A drop from 5% volume to 0.25% would be a 95% decrease… Wowzers. That should slow the boat a bit.

    Skål!

  • mmTesla

    Yea, I saw that they agreed against dark pools, but I just hope it is sincere.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    they have the strikes this I know 🙂
    Just put my order in for 1.34

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That is the golden question is it not? I am working on it.

    Skål!

  • mmTesla

    I'll take it, me vs a more transparent market is worth it.

  • flyboy08

    I'll wait till you find time to digest my email and then we can chat possibly? Good luck!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    on another note, saw your site. first posts?

    Goldmanfinger
    A view uphill
    never say short again
    Casino NYSE
    Operation MoonApple

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    IF the Titanic is going down it will go exactly like this:

    New high at 1111 (my favorite) to 1200. Drop to trendline support at 1055 or so. Ramp up to failed new high then….sputter, sputter, sputter….DROP.

    Of course we could just bust through 1200 in which case I will be buying a tinfoil hat and bull costume. On the plus side Puts are dirt cheap and we are so close, if could just get a short covering rally/blow off top on high ass volume I would feel soooo much better (that and a hard floor for our rapidly deteriorating dollar, which makes no sense really because we are going through deflation right)

  • wallstreetwatchman

    Look at the SPX upside down:
    http://www.wallstreetwatchman.com/2009/10/xps-v
    would you buy it….hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Sometimes watching the same tame upside down helps putting things in perspective.

  • http://www.huqleberry.com/ Romaitas

    looking at 90/85 puts for Amazon. This is curious…

  • Bart7

    any earnings reports left other than amzn to come out that are likely to have major market moving power, or have we heard from most of the biggies?

  • john_matrix

    Some bullish news on apple, they are allowing all networks in the uk to sell iphone starting in nov, this open the market up 4 times the users already, not what the plan is in the us

  • Brian_mk

    if they did that in the US.. it'd kill RIMM and Palm… we have hundreds of people wanting iphones but don't want to go to AT&T to get it.. and that's just my 1 company.

  • gsavli

    Whoaa! good thinking! 🙂

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I shorted AAPL yesterday and I'm taking it up the rear. Might close the put spread for -30% mmmm no fun

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Mole – I am going to my shrink now (she can also write prescription with hands and head) – do you want to join buddy?
    “Our worst enemy are ourselves”
    May be “next time we will have more faith in our own analysis no matter how “stupid” they might seem to us.
    Welcome to the “Be right and lose money” club (I wish I could say you are in the good company…)

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree the NDX count looks cleaner. From the 10-2 low, I see 5 up into 10-14, followed by a nice 3 wave drop (little shallow, but no surprise). A 5 wave move up from the 10-16 lows to the 10-20 high, followed by a 3 wave drop yesterday. And right now we have a 1-2-3-4 up, looking for 5 after (perhaps) another slight push lower.

    That count would be 1minor – 2minor, I(minute) – II(minute), i(minuette). With 4 out of 5 waves of the minuette complete.

    This suggest we push up in a 3 of III of iii after a slight push down. Counting intra-day wiggles here has been tough, but that is the most valid count I can put together.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We certainly are a disgruntled company…

    Skål!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamsters are good company. small brain but nice sense of humor

  • malusDiaz

    Mole: noone said shit about when you dropped your puts before 10,000. (or if they did it was questioning.)

    I'd like to say thank you for being so honest, perhaps it was hard to understand at the time, but you did the right thing.

    And the balls to say it in front of everyone.

    ./clap

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    shhhhhh LOL

  • onorio

    3 of (iii) after FED minutes? WTF is going to hellicopter ben do this time…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    that's what I say about my neice's ball python, tiny brain…very tiny lOL

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    When Mole turns bullish, that is the time to short

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Ouch sorry to hear that V8, I close my credit spread right at the open

  • gregn

    Absolutely, my first post here occurred right before Mole went on his well deserved vacation with Mrs. Evil and I told him how I appreciate his honesty/openness. There is no shame in admitting that you were wrong. Not learning from the mistakes is wrong, however.

  • newbear

    Apple is also just signed with the national carrier to your North (Canada) so that will no doubt be great news for iphone sales.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    can't win em all i suppose. That gap just looks so tasty but if i held it would be bad discipline

  • Nightwind

    Spx (5min) possible bull flag

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry but i count next up movement as v of 5 of w5.

    look at the nasdaq with small resolution, tiny w1, w3 extending and 3 of w3 extending.

    got a conference “financial menltdown from a NY perspective”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    But he didn't really turn bullish, just said he was insane LOL

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Being a Bear is kind of like being this cat in front of a pack of Pomo Pumped Banksta's trying to reach critical mass and get retail to pour back into this thing we call a market.

    This may not be “the top” but it certainly could be.

    The Fib and Horizontal Resistances are some of the strongest yet presented to this advance.

    The reverse holds true….is these lines are broken then retail may very well rush in to stage the final debacle.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/some-ol

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I thought the same but thanks to Cramer's 300 upgrade last night, well you know the rest….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you're free to use or adapt any and all 😉

    p.s. your fault “007 style”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    50 push ups!

  • Scrillhog

    hindu push ups!

  • Santinii

    I'm prefacing this by saying its highly unlikely, but we may be setting up for a reversal day. We've already made new highs, and if the beige book is ugly …

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    true

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    heurghhh

    don't talk pythons in rodents' lair

    know what they eat?

    tiny brained cute hamsters… sighhh 🙁

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if he is not turning bullish now – is it because he is NOT insane???

  • newbear

    Anyone short GS or BAC here, they seem to be weakening the most.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    pass Annamalla copy of Sutra Cama then

  • Me_XMan

    Those banks are insolvent. Gov't are propping them up.

  • KidDisco

    I think its too early to call him insane.
    Once he turns bullish, that's when we can officially declare him insane.

  • ultrabär

    No but I reckon GS for one has topped. Waiting for a bounce and considering the options. Will try and post a chart in a bit.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    My working NDX count. (Degrees are not labeled properly)

    http://screencast.com/t/GfqEmvG25

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    He called himself insane, we didn't LOL 😉

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    that's right David 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Agreed. What's the old adage… “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” I think that is coming into play a little here with our lovely Gov.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Just put on a USO 41 put

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I hate snakes thats me, I told her that snake may wrap around your neck on night and I hate them eating little mice. kills me 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ROFL hahahah

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    GS is pulling back…

  • ultrabär

    Ok. You want good news, Mr Mole? You looking for a dollar bottom? We may just have it with GBP (yeah, yeah, I know, for about the fifth time this week…).

    The start of wave C down? This chart has everything – a monster blow-off extended third, ending diagonal extended fifth broken-necked head and shoulders…

    http://screencast.com/t/1dtxR2Xr

    Moral of the story? Never count your corrective move complete until you see a clear 5 waves. An expensive lesson, admittedly, but hopefully one now well learned…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    convergence on my 15 min ES chart. we may pop higher again

  • KidDisco

    does /ES look like its in a bull flag to anyone else?

  • Cypherd

    Picked up some ESI Nov 110 puts, looking to sell the 105s for ~$3 for a total cost on the spread of $1.50

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    your 3 is iii of 3 your 1 of 5 is 3

    gotta go

  • onorio

    ES : ED from 1102 to 1095? anyone watching this?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You and your lack of charts. This is the most bearish way I can count it. Anything else has us looking up in a larger 3. IMO. We will see though.

    Skål!

  • omelette

    So it's generally thought that 5th wave of a 5 wave move is fueled by retail traders/investors. However, the bear pov of this rally is that it is a corrective move up. I see alot of people saying that there's cash on the sidelines and that retail is afraid of missing out and will fuel the final leg of the rally but does that thought actually apply to corrective moves? or would such a move potentially invalidate the idea that this is a corrective move?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I prefer my flags to have some wind in them… (I.E. not so straight down) But yes, upside resolution is due soon…

    Skål!

  • bearmaid

    There are two big weekly high volume candles from last year on the S&P, one from September 2008 the other from Oktober 2008.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&

    High volume candles are like magnets, their prices always get tested, sooner or later.

    1. The high volume candle from Oktober 2008 established a price range (839.80 – 1097.50) that was broken to the downside in March. But four weeks after the March low price went back up into the range and is staying there since 28 weeks now.

    This week we reached the upper price limit of this range at 1097.50 for a test respectively a break through. The first test on Monday failed, the second test today is up in the air. But even if price is rejected again, I think market makers will likely try a bit more until selling will stop the test or price finally breaks through.

    2. Above the high volume candle from Oktober 2008 there is the second one from September 2008, the price range goes from 1133.50 to 1265.12. This price range was never before tested, we simply broke it on the downside two weeks after it was established. A retest will happen one day. Why not now, when the target is so close?

    I see two alternatives here:
    a) Price could overshoot a bit but is eventually rejected at 1097.50 and we go down again. The rally would be over.
    b) Price breaks 1097.50 to the upside and seeks to break into the next price range at 1133.50 for a test of 1265.12.

    Take it with a grain of salt, I'm not an volume/Wyckhoff expert and could be completely wrong. And sorry for my poor english.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes… it does at the very end. Right now sentiment indicators are WELL ABOVE the 2007 peaks. As the prior drop scared everyone shitless, people have got their gusto back after we are close to rallying 50% off that bottom. WOOT. That still puts us down right?

    I have seen mixed numbers on cash on the sidelines. So I cannot offer much insight there. However, the last move in a corrective pattern is always motive (whether it be a smaller zig-zag or whatever, it will always end in a 5), so that thought pattern can still apply, however it should be at a smaller degree that we are used to.

    Skål!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Appreciate your thoughts….
    I am not a pure Elliot waver, I see this as an ABC and near top of C, but even an 8% blowoff top is very possible. Last year, we had common 1 day moves of 5% to 10%….now a 0.6% downside day is looked at as Armageddon on the cusp.

    And consider that this is the tail end of the greatest Mania of centuries. Why should normal rules apply?

  • ultrabär

    You looking for that blow-off top? Try this.

    SPX ending diagonal fifth (see my GBPUSD chart posted below for the blueprint of where we could go from here)

    http://screencast.com/t/IMCi74nb

  • gregn

    A lot of people have said that momentum in $SPX has been broken for a while, but momentum divergence has been a good indicator of coming correction in SPX on a relatively small scale. I expect the next correction to be of a larger scale then the last as the length of divergence is increasing larger each time. Excuse the messy lines: http://screencast.com/t/DOTLlmjfFx

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Did a little update above…

    Skål!

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Victim #2….GDX
    Victim #1… WYNN

    I need more candidates…..

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    One more thought…is there an EW problem with having wave C consist of 5 waves, with the last one being retail rushing in?

  • ultrabär

    ED from SPX 1082 – see post above

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Thank you, currently sitting on hands….might go long on a dip.

  • vardoger

    Really liking FDX as a short based on weekly resistance.

  • Nightwind

    USD and Vix look short term bearish

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I tend to agree with your thought pattern, but I see a few things.
    1) if momentum was waning on this last move from 10/2 lows, why is the oscillator value peak of 30 the highest on the chart? Is that waning?
    2) the peaks of the second and third divergences since 10/2 are still above the levels of any other divergent peak since August.

    Just my thoughts… As I said, I agree with the concept, just not sure how well it is playing out now…

    Skål!

  • insite

    new LOD on $$$ and SPX didn't budge.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    “Last year, we had common 1 day moves of 5% to 10%….now a 0.6% downside day is looked at as Armageddon on the cusp.”

    Amen brother… When will we learn…

    Skål!

  • AudioTactics

    I think we could be moving closer to an end of the strong inverse relationship between the USD and equities.

    As the USD continues to weaken, commodity prices increase and may soon become a significant drag on growth.

  • omelette

    Then it is worht considering that that's we have been seeing the last 10 days (or 30 days if you accept a count that says the rally was an ABC with C being an expanding wedge starting at the July low).

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    FXE looks brilliant once the dollar finds a bottom, Puts are dirt cheap. (Insert Euro joke here)

  • vardoger

    It's actually been directly correlating for small periods of time below 76. Something to keep an eye on.

  • amokta

    correction to yesterday – dec10 spx 700 puts were more pricey than i first thought (was looking at dec 09 intially!). Is a premium of $17 reasonable? Can only buy a few and not 100 puts! Also the brokers seem to take a fair bit of commission on top of this (?!)
    Relax everybody, stockmarket meltdown is right round the corner (i have a crystal ball!)

  • K.I.M.

    Since daily trendline is broken and it doesn't looks like a false break out to me anymore, maybe this isn't a bear rally after all. Bear rally could also ended in the beginning of january this year.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I saw CAR recently, but never charted it myself. It may have been Tim Knight or one of the other quality blogger shown in the poll on the right.

    The recent downward wedge indicates upside to come (although small).

    The potential move down is enormous.

    And some minor enforcement action on market manipulation–

    http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/enforcementpressre

    In 1932, after being beaten for years by the Great Depression, Amercians wanted heads to roll, and finally a prosecutor with the guts and ability stepped up to the plate.

    In January 2009, The NYT asked “Where is our Ferdinand Pecora”

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/fcic-th

  • gregn

    I would argue that it is a waning as there is a negative divergence between that day (10/06) and the last day that the MOM was at 30, which was back on 8/24. We had a higher price @ 1058, but an identical momentum.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I guess we will find out at 1251….if it gets there

  • vardoger
  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree… Just saying that it is not waning as fast as everyone believes. If it was, we would have had a much lower high on 10/6. I do agree though, just adding my thoughts.

    Skål!

  • Anonymous

    you mean that we still have the 250?
    i still have this ISRG

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    See my above post… Old adage my friend… The wise one's are gone, but their wisdom lives on. We ALL know it is bullshit… That is not the question. The question is how much longer can bull-shit fuel the fire. And with new bio-mass technology, it could be a while… 😛

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    Out of all as of a bit ago, I thought I posted it but may have passed me by as I am swamped as usual. sorry

  • Anonymous

    ok thanx anna
    i will too
    and how about the AAPL?
    i know you are out
    but i still get it
    and APPL go higher and higher

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    if you’re long Apple you might want to take off something IMHO. congrats 🙂

  • Anonymous

    i am short AAPL

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    oh no! gosh I am sorry to hear that

  • Anonymous

    just wait and see..

  • gregn

    Using the principle of finding the lowest momentum between two points of divergence as a sell/buy trigger, I would be comfortable saying that we are in an intermediate downtrend when this trigger is … triggered: http://screencast.com/t/P4NY7rDQ

  • suiciderats

    USD power-lunch update…
    Last trade 75.062 Change -0.503 (-0.65%)
    Settle Time 18:40 Open 75.550
    Previous Close 77.736 High 75.722
    Low 75.055 2009-10-21 12:52:01, 30 min delay
    52wk High 89.624 52wk High Date 2009-03-04
    52wk Low 75.103 52wk Low Date 2009-10-20

  • suiciderats

    new low 75.036

    what does that do to the RLs, mole?

    next lower RL or just noise?

  • AudioTactics

    I'm seeing some support for the $DXY at around the 75.0 level based on some support there at 3 points during the latter half of 2008.

    Is anybody else seeing that?

    Not sure how important DXY support is relative to other individual currency pairs though but maybe the USD could stabilize around here.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    On that we can concur… Longer-term break down and we should be ready to go…

    Skål!

  • insite

    aaand my DXY wrecked. the dollar breaks below $75

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Looks like we might not bounce convincingly until we have a double bottom any know last years low I can get it on ToS (grrrrrrrr)

  • Rd99Hse1

    GDX looks bullish to me. (if my victim you mean short)
    And if it does go down a little soon, then look out if it forms an inv.h&s, or swing double-bottom..

    *long $NG

  • insite

    so at what point do we think a breakdown in the dollar causes a sell-off in equities?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I have 74 for next target sheeeesh

  • z12run

    Any opinion on how low the dollar has to go where it reaches a point where it's no longer bullish for equities, because it's a currency crisis? Or as far as equities are concerned, is it the lower the better no matter how low it goes?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am wishing today LOL

  • charles_smith

    As per Berk's warning–many smart analysts are saying similar things –the A/D line is still strong, etc. meaning nobody wants to fling themselves in front of the train and declare a top (again). But the fact that virtually no one is willing to call a top except “maybe in January” or some future time frame. Meanwhile, everyone expects gold to keep rising and the dollar to keep falling, as if a reversal is out of the question. That makes it much more likely IMO. Just sentiment, not TA.

  • Nightwind

    I'm estimatng between 74.65–75.79

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I have 74.02

  • AudioTactics

    Just for your guide, there were 3 touches of $DXY around 75.0 before it eventually broke down.

    After the first touch, $DXY stayed above the 75.0 level for approximately 3 months before it eventually broke down lower.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Audio good stuff thanks 🙂

  • AudioTactics

    Are you basing your support levels on the the support points in late 2008 or something else?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    The same thing that sent GDX through the roof will put it through the floor. It doubles up the price move of Uncle Buck and Equities. A strengthening dollar and decline equities ought to really hurt this ETF.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Update, been busy @ day job…Obviously the oil short wasn't working so I had to reverse that within a half hour of the EIA inventory report. And the USD rapidly seemed to be turning into monopoly money.

    So I got on right side of the oil market but missed a lot of the “pop” today.

  • Beefstik

    Anna, congrats on oil calls. Crude is on steroid today…it looked to be on its way to $76 overnight and just turned all of a sudden this morning. Sheesh.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    gang if it wasn't for Oil Commodities IMHO we would be much much lower here FWIW

  • AS2009

    Yes entered UCO 14 nov calls on the breakout of USO 41 – very happy with them 🙂

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It doesn't, probably. SPX is priced in dollars that are worth less. 😉

    Something else has to overwhelm the lower dollar to bring SPX down, IMO.

  • bshah

    Does this headline means anything to anyone in the market? Not really.. right

    23 states report higher unemployment in September ( That's almost half the country )
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/23-states-report-

  • gmak

    DXY below 75. Betcha there's lots of phones ringing around the world right now……

  • amokta

    british bank shares showing some instability – could portend a top?
    if bank shares led the stock recovery, could they be the first to topple

  • insite

    something just 'feels' funny right now…….

  • Nightwind

    No, my charts don't go back far enough, just doing a rough calculation….trying to rough in a target. Anna could be spot on

  • AS2009

    Richard (Crowe) – MOS breakout frrom triangle with bullish engulfing – buying Nov 55 calls @ 2.35 – first tgt 57, then 59, then 70 🙂

  • AudioTactics

    No worries! =)

    On closer inspection, it looks like the support range is 74.80 – 75.00 based on that area in late 2008.

    So maybe a little downside from here but we are in the support range as far as I can tell…

  • itsbusinesstime

    It looks like the law of diminishing returns is starting to take effect with getting a rise out of this market by trashing the dollar.

  • Hanuman

    I think Anna is a Goldman insider, showing some benevolence towards us (battered, limping BEARS).

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    About time thank goodness, jeeze how blind are folks 🙂

  • AudioTactics

    Ok, I'm on Bloomberg (have it temporarily)

  • bist

    The upper gap resistance trendline from last October stands at 110.3. SPY bumped it's head against it this morning. I'm sure it will make one more run at it. Right now we could be consolidating for a final push up, a false breakout above 110.3 followed by a steep selloff.

    Or we could just sell off from here. Earnings aren't moving this market.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Never on both accounts 😀

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Looking for GLD short too

  • The Unknown Trader

    Anna,
    Did you hear about that case in Sumter County Florida where a Burmese Python got out of its cage one night and killed a little girl? That was horrible.

    http://www.wftv.com/news/19924295/detail.html

  • suiciderats

    seems that RL of 74.77 could be the winning ticket?

    whatever it is, equities are not responding as inversely as i would have guessed.

  • AudioTactics

    So did you sell your USO calls?

    And now your short Oil or is it a hedge?

  • K.I.M.

    Can you please explain me the 1251. So I can update my chart. Thanks.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Everyone (including me) had leaned to the API's inventories from last night, which were much more bearish than EIA's this morning.

    That being said, no matter what the iventories were, you can't fight a lower dollar by staying short on oil. It's like a salmon swimming upstream. You'll be dead at the ned from it. 😉

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Yes, i did posted that this morning along with GLD calls now reversing for short term trades. 🙂
    USO 41put
    GLD 103 put

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Resistance trendline drawn from peak… best to do it on a weekly chart.

  • de3600

    Could the dollar be the Catalyst everyone has been looking for ?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes… it could be, but we need to see some REAL confirmation… Longer than an hour or so. IFYKWIM.

    Skål!

  • Beefstik

    A, sorry for newbie questions…what is your basis? 5/15min macd crosss?? TIA.

  • Hanuman

    Shorting ACAT. Target $6.

  • Beefstik

    So true… ;((

  • bergs

    Stainless_Steel_Hampster

    Sorry to not respond. Just found all my disqus mail is being sent to my junk folder.

    I guess I do not know how to count an impulse, obviously! Insanity, insanity I plead.

    Is this the count you are suggesting? I hope so as the count looks cleaner to me. Would put us to the 1135 area for minute wave five

    http://screencast.com/t/l09uV4x953

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    NP Beef yes, that and the $DXY should have short term bounce here. 🙂

  • TheCrowe

    You are righter and righter! Good luck. I'm differently allocated (which means stuck in a loser) so won't be in this trade with you.
    In the trade vicariously,
    Richard

  • tradejane

    DAX didn't make a new high today so I figure the Germans got their phone-call through first.

  • bshah

    is market halted or something.. SPY not moving from 109.84

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    How many times have you seen a larger degree Wave 2 retrace less the wave 4 of smaller degree? And only a point more than the smaller degree wave 2? And not into the previous 4th wave? AND only retrace to 85.4% of the move, only a 14% correction for a wave 2? Personally, I have not seen many…

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Personally I don't remember any, but I might have missed one 🙂

  • vardoger

    I posted this a few days ago and it's a familiar count to some but price has broken the lower trendline of the ED.

    High probability of DX bottom this week based on EW

    http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/737329/OctDollarCoun

  • TheMacroEconomist

    And right about that time I took off my pyramid on my USO long.

    Remember: Pits trade on the CL contract (upon which these ETFs are based) ends at 2:30.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks… Me neither…

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey Mac, yes I agree wholeheartedly 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    🙂

  • AS2009

    UUP – next level of support reached @ 22.28 …. if we break then next level 22.10 …. so $$ may bounce here …

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    they keeping the $VIX down that's BS, should have popped a bit by now hmmmmmmmmmmm

  • vardoger

    Might be a decent time to take a stab short, /cl finally broke it's 45 degree trendline that put on $3 in 3 hours. I prefer the future as well, easier to define stops!

  • HappyJohn

    Anna, I agree with your thinking. Perhaps the Fed Beige book at 2pm is the catalyst?

    John

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Nice to have such happy company 🙂

  • molecool

    “meaning nobody wants to fling themselves in front of the train and declare a top (again).”

    Not sure what Berk said (he's probably cautious here) but I just want to point out that this type of discouragement occurs at market tops – just saying. I know you've heard that song a few times in the past two months.

  • molecool

    Interesting point – FWIW – we are starting to feel the loss of purchasing power here in CA.

  • jaxon

    this really is insanity. i just gunned through about a 100 charts and the vast majority of stocks are right up against major resistance areas. they all look like shorts to me. impressive. something IS going to give…..and very soon. on the other hand, maybe it will be another inflation driven bull market bustin' out. deja vu all over again. perhaps not so much. let's see…we've done tech, housing & credit…..whattyathink? i'm at a loss.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I got this funny feeling that after 2:30, the whole focus changes to a possible ramp-up close on equities.

    Still the risk of double sized USO position was too great for me at 41.80. 🙂

  • HappyJohn

    Notice also the weakness under the surface in the markets today? As of now, SMH, INTC, WFC, JPM, GS, and others are all near their lows. Transports too.

    Good luck out there,

    John

  • jaxon

    tie me to the tracks.

  • jaxon

    tie me to the tracks.

  • AS2009

    My ST target for USO is gap fill @ 42.09 … after that i expect some pullback / consolidation … if we break above that level, then next tgt is 44.50

    I will sell @ 42.05 ….
    Damn … I hate trading against Anna … but this is what the chart is telling me …

  • gregn

    Once the bears stop shorting the market and all of the retailers are in, we are at the top — who else is going to buy?. A lot of our upward momentum came from short squeezes.

  • vision_invisible

    i think we will see separation, if the dollar keeps dropping why not keep the carry trade on
    but oil at $100 will kill airlines and consumers in america

    a lower dollar will help sales of export oriented

    lots of easy pair trades here
    long MCD long YUM short DRI short EAT

    etc

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I will be one of the first to call a top on a DAILY (or larger timeframe). Just not looking for a 4 point drop to be the end of the world.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am that's why I am thinking by EOD we end in the red With the dollar this strong the tape normally is up at least 80-100 points

    You too John 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… Would create a nice little blow-off top. Something we have yet to encounter.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    could be but I don't expect a huge ramp up today FWIW 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I agree with you on this

  • jaxon

    all they're gonna do is jawbone the bond market about raising interest rates and draining when the time is right. keep everyone at bay.

  • Rd99Hse1

    Agreed. But until the dollar gains footing for more than 2 days…no real
    reason to short early.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Music to my ears… You mean a 1 tick drop isn't the big one?

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just a note the volume on the USO has slowly been declining, which gave me a signal to head out 🙂

  • bergs

    Ouch!

    Thanks for the heads up Berk, I see what you mean.

    I'm going to step back for awhile until I see the light better.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    I head was messed up by looking at too many bear charts….lol As for USO, I think a 10 day channel should do the trick to signal a buy….not recommending any sells due to more likely of a sideways action

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Sitting on my hands and sizing up my prey right now, if I get into the market at all right now it would be long.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah… Not knocking you… My counts certainly have their flaws… Just some things to think about. As I said earlier… Intra-day wiggles are becoming hard to count (though none of us REALLY know what the larger picture is, so that makes some sense).

    Keep up the good work though… It's not been easy.

    Skål!

  • insite

    beige book pretty negative overall

  • TheCrowe

    I estimate Steve Jobs made roughly $97,668,000 since the close of business on Monday * . My annual salary is, literally, a rounding error in this calculation.

    Richard
    * est. Jobs owns 5.426 million shares of AAPLE @ $18 appreciation since c.o.b. Monday at $189.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Who says they don't ring a bell at the top?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I don't think a $$ reversal is out of the question. I just think when it happens that we will likely see a break-down in correlation between /DX and $SPX. We can't keep going in the same direction forever.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They do… It's called a spike reversal… Or a gap down the next day, per charts I posted last night. Though it is not quite as loud as at the bottom.

    Skål!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Definitely easier on the short side than DNO!

    DNO is new, a lot of traders don't know it's there yet, so bid/ask tends to be wide.

  • KidDisco

    My condolences to anybody who shorted AAPL yesterday.

  • innatedc

    Thank you…got out this morning but it still stings….

  • gregn

    For a while now, I have been seeing $SPX charts with a rising wedge starting with the lows in March. The bottom support line is always moved to support the case that we are indeed in a bearish scenario, but look at this rising wedge in $SPX from mid '02 to mid '06. This is nearly identical to the wedge that we are currently looking at from March to now.
    http://screencast.com/t/AUrzXBsh

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    lol…lesson learned over and over again….never short anything above a 20 EMA

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sheeesh ditto, I was short but got out this morning with minimal loss and I had a credit spread so had protection on 😉

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Glad I am long MA that's rocking

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Pah… Tis nothing compared to the CNH I layed out for EVERYONE 2 days ago…

    Skål!

  • AudioTactics

    Why are all of the short Oil ETF's double or triple shorts?

    Can't they make a single short Oil ETF? WTF…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Why aren't you addicted to leverage?

    Skål!

  • dollar

    From the Beige book:

    “Reports of gains in economic activity generally outnumber declines, but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered.”

    Is that sufficient?

  • gregn

    From hindsight, it would have been a pretty good idea to have shorted at the breakdown from this wedge @ 1275ish… but none of us would have held our short positions as we saw $SPX rise from 1275 up to 1555.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Is the mkt struggling even with the huge euro rally? maybe the correlation traders will get their fingers burned? Is the dollar weakness becoming a worry?

  • AudioTactics

    Nope…

  • hank30

    We are close.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Depends on whether you are bullish or bearish and/or short or long the /DX.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    But money is cheap…. Come on… Leverage is good… 😛

    Skål!

  • innatedc

    BTW good posts by both Mole and Berks….thanks.

  • AudioTactics

    Just bought some DUG at 11.55

    Also still short SPY

  • PeterK80

    Cant you just short USO?

  • Tronacate

    Maybe a reversion to everything moving together here….

  • flyboy08

    I forgot you're long! I was actually going to short it at 227.00, but it blew through it with might….lucky me:-)….good for you!

  • AudioTactics

    For some reason my broker never has it and the other day I spoke with sec lending and they couldn't find it for me even at a special rate…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That would be a good indication of a topping process…

    Skål!

  • vision_invisible

    CAT is a good short, one CEO was on and asked about their CAT equipment. He basically said they have machinery sitting idle and they will deploy that before they buy more. I like CAT to the downside.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes am short CAT…
    have a friend here in Spain..now does work of 2/3 since their heavy cost cutting..also says lots of stuff idling..
    good growth in Africa…but they are smaller mkts….
    http://www.screencast.com/t/UJY1sJuKA4bE

  • dollar

    Transports dumping

  • springheel_jack

    SOIL, traded in London from ETF Securities. 1x oil short ETF.

  • HappyJohn

    So far so good on USO! Nice call on these puts.

    I hope I haven't jinxed things with this message! 🙂

    John

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hmm a little bit of the 'I' (inflation) word in the Beige Book and now the dollar is basing.

  • john_matrix

    this is postive for the market

  • Beefstik

    Sure enough, shortly after my oil shorts hit the stop, oil price dropped…;((

  • TheMacroEconomist

    The love to hunt for them at CME, don't they?

  • vision_invisible

    i figured didnt they lay off 30,000 workers?
    they also dont have a ton of cash also.

    the 50day is $50. why short the spy's when u got CAT 🙂

  • insite

    check out the money flow table for the major indices

    MARKET MONEY FLOW (in millions) RATIO
    TODAY PREV DAY
    DJIA -53.7 +53.3 97/100
    Blocks +44.9 +15.4 118/100
    S & P 500 -128.9 -23.8 99/100
    Blocks -236.4 -15.3 85/100
    Russell 2000 -5.7 +101.4 100/100
    Blocks +11.7 -462.7 106/100
    DJ U.S. Total Stock Market -107.5 +0.0 99/100
    Blocks -316.3 +0.0 84/100

  • Tronacate

    Used CAT equipment refurbisher is busy…….new sales……maybe not so good

  • Beefstik

    So you still think spx will run higher EOD?

  • onorio

    IMO we drop like a rock in a few minutes….

  • Tronacate

    How about 8K for bear daytrader stimulus. Makes as much sense as everything else

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I don't have a good feel now in the wake of the Beige Book. Will need to watch the tape.

    First tho I need a break from all that oil trading! 😀

  • molecool

    That's what stop runs are designed to do – which is why I don't use them.

  • molecool

    Don't get me all hot and bothered for nothing… 😉

  • insite

    i think you're right. i can't figure out WHY i feel this way, but i'm certain of it. something just feels wrong.

  • crush1618

    Why don't shorts wait for a 5 count wave down followed by a 3-count subwave 2 up of P3 to short? Options IV would be too high?

  • flyboy08

    Yep, transports hit hard….Airlines especially today! A day after UAUA reporter better than expected and after a brief rise. Today, it's punishment……disclosure, I'm not in any airlines…..CAL down over $2!

  • Tronacate

    I felt the same way the first time I had sex with sheep…….don't worry…..you get used to it.

  • onorio

    I use mental stops….dont wanna get stop because someone knows we`re my stop is.

  • insite

    i'm allergic to wool 🙁

  • molecool

    Don't remember that – you might want to shoot me an email once in a while…

  • Tronacate

    lol

  • newbear

    Down goes GS and BAC!!

  • Tronacate

    Kewl

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sorry… I posted a list of stocks I liked on Monday… CNH, CMI (false break), BLK (ending daigonal with throw-over), FWLT (short), CF (long). A few more. Don't worry… Nobody else thought it was worth a shit either…

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I must have missed that one CNH let me look 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    LOL 😉

  • molecool

    I always enjoy girl-on-girl action.

    This is a difficult trade – it's running along it's 2.0 BB and could keep trending – I also don't see any divergence yet like the ones I usually look out for. Too late to go long, so I would not touch it here. Remember, the best trades are the ones you don't take.

  • Tronacate

    I missed it too….damn it

  • Beefstik

    I use mental stops for most trades but playing oil today is like playing with fire…didn't want to take too much risk. ;P

  • Bart7

    late day POMO momo, or did they blow their wad already?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I just looked… I mentioned CTB this time… Must have just kept this one to myself… 😛

    Skål!

  • TonyMontana

    ERY is looking like a good long here for a possible bounce to about $14, provided it holds the support at around the $10 mark from the trend line derived by joining the Jan 6 and June 11 lows.

  • Cypherd

    Sold the second leg for the ESI Nov 110/105 put spread a little while ago for $3 as planned.

  • Bart7

    seen this? Goldman Sachs Quietly Pulls Out of Commodities
    http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-cu

  • TheCrowe

    If you're right, what are your retracement level projections? I see 23% fib of 41.2, 38% fib of $38.8 and 50% of $37.8. Do you plan to play the pullback? Thanks and best, Richard

  • rangefinder

    I think its hats off to this guy

    http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

    Looks to me that this count is valid to date for this impulse and could yet prove a road map for the next move down.

    I hate this rally and I wish it would fcuk off.

  • dollar

    I liked this snippet: “…further price increases are unlikely and the fourth quarter could see a drop back in prices as demand fails to materialize as hoped.”

  • gregn

    Pot looking like a good short here. Chart: http://screencast.com/t/iYt40XHJK

  • Tronacate

    s FSLR here

  • pgrychah

    Hey Mole,
    Would you buy this stock?
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/St9dBsTqR
    Hint: you have multiple posts about this index.

  • vardoger

    Tim Haefke from the Spoos pit:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7f6zn9akLY

    Still looking for the gap fill /es 1102.5

  • Trader_Steve

    They do not ring the Lutine Bell anymore…I wish they did.

    Steve

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sold an Ebay 25/27 Bear Call Spread for 85.00

  • insite

    dow negative

  • pgrychah

    From P&F next support is 71.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    F**&_)n I bought it instead of selling it (grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)

  • insite

    aaand now the SPX

  • onorio

    Short EURUSD @ 1.5035

  • Beefstik

    Your prediction of closing in red today is looking promising…did not have a good day but nat gas short saved my day.

  • pgrychah

    It's possible that it will go as low as 66. 666 – 66. Maybe it will bottom at 66.6

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    closing few /nq short lots under 1760

  • Scoops

    That was interesting.

  • pgrychah
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey Beef, you remembered that 🙂 Glad to hear that on Nat gas

  • centerline

    Was out of office till now. Could today possibly be a gravestone doji day?

    I know, I know, the trend, the trend. I can dream, can't I? (talking to self).

  • AS2009

    Mole, I was already long on the breakout @ 41.10 … still holding as I cannot day – trade ..

    Crowe .. before the breakout of 41 … I was looking for a retrace to 39 …. it still could get there … watching carefully … would be very surprised if we got so close to the gap @ 42.09 and then did not fill …

  • onorio

    HUGE RED CANDLE!

    Ahhh, how i miss those days…*sigh*

  • KidDisco

    is Zero broken?

  • insite

    weeeee! god, i love the smell of red tape after 3:30

  • Scoops

    This reminds me of the good old days when the margin clerk showed up half hour before close and bitch slapped the bulls.

  • Santinii

    Close below 108.68 on the SPY = reversal day

  • TheCrowe

    Sorry, alot of folks in here are long pot. Oh…POT. My mistake 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    shall I change green to red and red to green back again? I am getting too much green now

  • Beefstik

    :)) Been waiting for this moment all day….DIE…DIE…down…more…

  • AudioTactics

    ok, what just happened?

    all this on a USD pop?

  • bananaben
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    shhhh…don't tell bagholders

  • tradejane

    Happy Days are here again. 🙂

    Thank you DAX and DB!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Your wish is my command 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Your wish is my command 🙂

  • dollar

    A lot of force in this downturn

  • gannsecret

    ATTENTION BULLS
    Below S&P 1080 please remove all sharp objects from your
    pockets, stick your head between your legs
    And kiss your ass goodbye

  • centerline

    Holy waterfalls batman.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    My SPY puts I bought HOD are buring up my screen LOL

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    holy fuck i come back from class and this????

  • tradejane

    UYG broke major support area!!!!!!!!!

  • Beefstik

    Are you closing it now or keep it overnight?

  • dollar

    3:35 PM Wonder if the sudden plunge has anything to do with this: Richard Bove downgrades Wells Fargo (WFC) to Sell.

  • KidDisco

    Zero is not moving. i don't trust this sell off…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    finally he did something useful dollar LOL

  • funkypenguin

    Will not make me popular here on this board but long ES@1080

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    oh holding on for dear life, this is just the beginning of correction 🙂

  • gregn

    Nice call “IMO we drop like a rock in a few minutes….”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just added more SPY 110 puts 🙂

  • AudioTactics

    I'm taking profits until I figure out what happened…

    Then maybe I'll re-short…

  • T_dub

    Thats a charged-up bear ! If the S&P fills and breaks through the 1075-1077 gap, you can be even more certain.

  • onorio

    I dont wanna repeat myself but…FUCK! what a HUGE RED candle!

  • onorio

    Hold on to those puts A! 😀

  • dollar

    This is an even better excuse:

    3:26 PM The government will reportedly order deep pay cuts from the biggest bailout recipients in a plan the Treasury will announce in the next few days. The seven companies that got the most assistance will have to cut cash payouts to their top 25 execs by an average of 90% – to be replaced by stock that they'll be restricted from immediately selling – and cut their total compensation by 50%.

  • rangefinder

    Wow – now that's worth watching…looks like its stabilising – any idea WTF caused this???

  • insite

    dip buyers smacked down in 5….4…..3….2…..

  • amokta

    tell me, seeing as i was only born yesterday (!), did large intraday swings in stock indices/stocks occur to this degree in the 1980s/90s/20s market turns
    also reports of the 'imminent demise of the US dollar and US Treasuries' have been greatly exaggerated, according to Prechter & Gamble at EWI ?? true or false

  • onorio

    Big Bad Bear.

  • dollar

    XLF at its trend line from March

  • centerline

    Vix clearly rejected the 20 today

  • gannsecret

    Dubster,
    Shit man we have been hovering here for almost 6 days. We should have kissed 1108 by now, the fact we haven't is not very bullish !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    <bWHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE what good timing that was O 🙂

  • Marc45

    I'd like to see the board of directors of these companies feel some pain. Ultimately they were responsible for this condition.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We like to be early. We're all masochistic…

    Skål!

  • onorio

    The lower TL from the channel formed since 05/oct has been broken.

  • nyxjf

    you mean calls?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Die Gold/ die USO Die Equities 🙂

  • onorio

    I short 3 pts early…damn!

  • Tronacate

    DTG is now acting more like the POS it is

  • Hanuman

    Anna rules again ….

    Returned after an hour long meeting. Market has moved 100 points….to DEEP RED.

    Anna's uncanny instinct … rules again. How can't she be not from GS ???

    Anyway great call for EOD RED Anna … congrats !

    Lap dog – Member Anna's fan club : )

  • omelette

    don't like that the zero isn't playing along with this either… but at least this should satisfy berk's desire for a blow off top

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No puts I bought at high of day and then just doubled down when we were down about 50 dow points 🙂

  • gannsecret

    See what I mean by the hourly Vix being a little
    early ? SSHHHHHHH…..

  • onorio

    Die EUR!

  • springheel_jack

    Never have I been happier to have baled out early on a geronimo trade with a lousy hundred bucks profit.

    I didn't take it, but the retracement levels trade today to short at SPX 1101 with a stop at 1103 really worked out well for anyone that did.

  • Tronacate

    nobody paid attention to my s FSLR……

  • gregn

    Looks like $SPX found support at 1082.24

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Hanuman, I thought the $DXY being so low and the tape not following that we might have a short term crash. 🙂

  • funkypenguin

    My favorite story of the day (even if I don't agree it's completely justified) but for pure revenge sake – love it

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Lips zipped… Nice.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Lips zipped… Nice.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hehehe die EUR for O 🙂

  • shortcover

    still have some QID and SRS open (haven't written calls on them)…and my FAZ trade from last week is paying off…

  • dollar

    and UUP up a little on this – running to strength?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Yeeeeeeeeessssssssss 🙂

  • ds2

    I'm w/ you Jack. I bailed at even on BGU after scalping w/ it a few times today. I saw the short set up which is why I left. Wish I had taken the short. Seems every time I do lately I get burned.

  • Scoops

    Trannies are off 2.5%. Look at that candle. That is a substantial reversal, which btw was not confirming today's upside whatsoever.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Bove was the catalyst, who knew???????? LOL

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • pgrychah

    good old buck – $DXY

  • funkypenguin

    Bulls are on very, very thin ice if true – downgrade of WFC should not move the market like this.

    Wondering if something else is going on e.g. is this Galleon hedge fund unwinding in a panic

  • gannsecret

    Tomorrow when all the bank traders are at the movie theatre
    or trading desks someone could yell…………….

    FIRE !!!!!!!

    “Everyone please move to the exits in an orderly fashion”,
    yea right.

  • springheel_jack

    I got worried after the bull flag on SPX broke to the upside and came back. Not a good sign.

    I didn't short it, but I'm training myself to wait for high probability setups only. I have a bad habit of taking positions just to pass the time.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    covering few more – holding about 4x

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you are getting passionate…me liking it 🙂

  • Scrillhog

    don't buy that…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    where is everyone?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    ahh… Mole did New Pst on me 🙁

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    can I say “bomb” on the plane?

  • gannsecret

    Only, if you want to spend a lot of hours with
    homeland security.  🙂

  • jaxon

    how are the talking heads and empty suits explaining this one?

  • DMS425

    Mole,

    You may have called the top? Let hope the correction can begin.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    no, as I mentioned the drop could be 4

    3 endeded where you placed your question mark 1 of 5?

    so 16/10 was i of 5, 19 was 3 of 5 and the colapse was 4 of 5 (truncated v)

    sorry was leaving for a useless conference a steven hammond guy

  • jaxon

    F_____ the correction. Let's get on with PW3 directly. back to the main event. i'd like to get this bear market over with while i'm still young. it's almost laughable the way they keep trying to blow air into a bubble that's full of holes. they're gonna run out of wind soon enough. what they need is a new bubble.

  • T_dub

    I couldn't agree more, GS. How about one hourly bear candle to undo six days of bull-work.

    Having said that, I'm gonna be like Bill Belichick and say “that was a good performance, we have to now focus on the next trading day” with a dour face. Unless I see some real confirmations, no cigar lighting here yet. Of course, I'm short to my eyeballs… :-D…

    Target remains the same: SPX 905 by Nov 16th or 17th.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Glad I am long MA that's rocking

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Pah… Tis nothing compared to the CNH I layed out for EVERYONE 2 days ago…

    Skål!

  • AudioTactics

    Why are all of the short Oil ETF's double or triple shorts?

    Can't they make a single short Oil ETF? WTF…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Why aren't you addicted to leverage?

    Skål!

  • dollar

    From the Beige book:

    “Reports of gains in economic activity generally outnumber declines, but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered.”

    Is that sufficient?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Is the mkt struggling even with the huge euro rally? maybe the correlation traders will get their fingers burned? Is the dollar weakness becoming a worry?

  • AudioTactics

    Nope…

  • hank30

    We are close.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Depends on whether you are bullish or bearish and/or short or long the /DX.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    But money is cheap…. Come on… Leverage is good… 😛

    Skål!

  • innatedc

    BTW good posts by both Mole and Berks….thanks.

  • AudioTactics

    Just bought some DUG at 11.55

    Also still short SPY

  • PeterK80

    Cant you just short USO?

  • Tronacate

    Maybe a reversion to everything moving together here….

  • flyboy08

    I forgot you're long! I was actually going to short it at 227.00, but it blew through it with might….lucky me:-)….good for you!

  • AudioTactics

    For some reason my broker never has it and the other day I spoke with sec lending and they couldn't find it for me even at a special rate…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That would be a good indication of a topping process…

    Skål!

  • vision_invisible

    CAT is a good short, one CEO was on and asked about their CAT equipment. He basically said they have machinery sitting idle and they will deploy that before they buy more. I like CAT to the downside.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes am short CAT…
    have a friend here in Spain..now does work of 2/3 since their heavy cost cutting..also says lots of stuff idling..
    good growth in Africa…but they are smaller mkts….
    http://www.screencast.com/t/UJY1sJuKA4bE

  • dollar

    Transports dumping

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    SOIL, traded in London from ETF Securities. 1x oil short ETF.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hmm a little bit of the 'I' (inflation) word in the Beige Book and now the dollar is basing.

  • Beefstik

    Sure enough, shortly after my oil shorts hit the stop, oil price dropped…;((

  • TheMacroEconomist

    The love to hunt for them at CME, don't they?

    Watch them clear a few stops the other way now going into 2:30.

  • vision_invisible

    i figured didnt they lay off 30,000 workers?
    they also dont have a ton of cash also.

    the 50day is $50. why short the spy's when u got CAT 🙂

  • insite

    check out the money flow table for the major indices

    MARKET MONEY FLOW (in millions) RATIO
    TODAY PREV DAY
    DJIA -53.7 +53.3 97/100
    Blocks +44.9 +15.4 118/100
    S & P 500 -128.9 -23.8 99/100
    Blocks -236.4 -15.3 85/100
    Russell 2000 -5.7 +101.4 100/100
    Blocks +11.7 -462.7 106/100
    DJ U.S. Total Stock Market -107.5 +0.0 99/100
    Blocks -316.3 +0.0 84/100

  • Tronacate

    Used CAT equipment refurbisher is busy…….new sales……maybe not so good

  • Beefstik

    So you still think spx will run higher EOD?

  • Onorio

    IMO we drop like a rock in a few minutes….

  • Tronacate

    How about 8K for bear daytrader stimulus. Makes as much sense as everything else

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I don't have a good feel now for SPX in the wake of the Beige Book. Will need to watch the tape.

    First tho I need a break from all that oil trading! 😀

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's what stop runs are designed to do – which is why I don't use them.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't get me all hot and bothered for nothing… 😉

  • insite

    i think you're right. i can't figure out WHY i feel this way, but i'm certain of it. something just feels wrong.

  • crush1618

    Why don't shorts wait for a 5 count wave down followed by a 3-count subwave 2 up of P3 to short? Options IV would be too high?

  • flyboy08

    Yep, transports hit hard….Airlines especially today! A day after UAUA reporter better than expected and after a brief rise. Today, it's punishment……disclosure, I'm not in any airlines…..CAL down over $2!

  • Tronacate

    I felt the same way the first time I had sex with sheep…….don't worry…..you get used to it.

  • Onorio

    I use mental stops….dont wanna get stop because someone knows we`re my stop is.

  • insite

    i'm allergic to wool 🙁

  • Tronacate

    lol

  • newbear

    Down goes GS and BAC!!

  • Tronacate

    Kewl

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I must have missed that one CNH let me look 🙂 Holey Pomeranian! LOL

  • Beefstik

    I use mental stops for most trades but playing oil today is like playing with fire…didn't want to take too much risk. ;P

  • Bart7

    late day POMO momo, or did they blow their wad already?

  • TonyMontana

    ERY is looking like a good long here for a possible bounce to about $14, provided it holds the support at around the $10 mark from the trend line derived by joining the Jan 6 and June 11 lows.

  • Cypherd

    Sold the second leg for the ESI Nov 110/105 put spread a little while ago for $3 as planned.

  • Bart7

    seen this? Goldman Sachs Quietly Pulls Out of Commodities
    http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-cu

  • rangefinder

    I think its hats off to this guy

    http://patmcneill.blogspot.com/

    Looks to me that this count is valid to date for this impulse and could yet prove a road map for the next move down.

    I hate this rally and I wish it would fcuk off.

  • dollar

    I liked this snippet: “…further price increases are unlikely and the fourth quarter could see a drop back in prices as demand fails to materialize as hoped.”

  • gregn

    Pot looking like a good short here. Chart: http://screencast.com/t/iYt40XHJK

  • Tronacate

    s FSLR here

  • RYCH

    Hey Mole,
    Would you buy this stock?
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/St9dBsTqR
    Hint: you have multiple posts about this index.

  • Vardoger

    Tim Haefke from the Spoos pit:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7f6zn9akLY

    Still looking for the gap fill /es 1102.5

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sold an Ebay 25/27 Bear Call Spread for 85.00

  • insite

    dow negative

  • RYCH

    From P&F next support is 71.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    F**&_)n I bought it instead of selling it (grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)

  • insite

    aaand now the SPX

  • Onorio

    Short EURUSD @ 1.5035

  • Beefstik

    Your prediction of closing in red today is looking promising…did not have a good day but nat gas short saved my day.

  • RYCH

    It's possible that it will go as low as 66. 666 – 66. Maybe it will bottom at 66.6

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    closing few /nq short lots under 1760

  • Scoops

    That was interesting.

  • RYCH
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey Beef, you remembered that 🙂 Glad to hear that on Nat gas

  • centerline

    Was out of office till now. Could today possibly be a gravestone doji day?

    I know, I know, the trend, the trend. I can dream, can't I? (talking to self).

  • Onorio

    HUGE RED CANDLE!

    Ahhh, how i miss those days…*sigh*

  • KidDisco

    is Zero broken?

  • insite

    weeeee! god, i love the smell of red tape after 3:30

  • Scoops

    This reminds me of the good old days when the margin clerk showed up half hour before close and bitch slapped the bulls.

  • Santinii

    Close below 108.68 on the SPY = reversal day

  • TheCrowe

    Sorry, alot of folks in here are long pot. Oh…POT. My mistake 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    shall I change green to red and red to green back again? I am getting too much green now

  • Beefstik

    :)) Been waiting for this moment all day….DIE…DIE…down…more…

  • AudioTactics

    ok, what just happened?

    all this on a USD pop?

  • bananaben
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    shhhh…don't tell bagholders

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Happy Days are here again. 🙂

    Thank you DAX and DB!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Your wish is my command 🙂

  • dollar

    A lot of force in this downturn

  • gannsecret

    ATTENTION BULLS
    Below S&P 1080 please remove all sharp objects from your
    pockets, stick your head between your legs
    And kiss your ass goodbye

  • centerline

    Holy waterfalls batman.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    My SPY puts I bought HOD are buring up my screen LOL My USO reverse worked out perfectly along with GLD wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    holy fuck i come back from class and this????

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    UYG broke major support area!!!!!!!!!

    PS. Commerzbank broke 8.20 in after hour trading!

  • Beefstik

    Are you closing it now or keep it overnight?

  • dollar

    3:35 PM Wonder if the sudden plunge has anything to do with this: Richard Bove downgrades Wells Fargo (WFC) to Sell.

    or is just a good excuse…

  • KidDisco

    Zero is not moving. i don't trust this sell off…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    finally he did something useful dollar LOL

  • funkypenguin

    Will not make me popular here on this board but long ES@1080

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    oh holding on for dear life, this is just the beginning of correction 🙂

  • gregn

    Nice call “IMO we drop like a rock in a few minutes….”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just added more SPY 110 puts 🙂

  • AudioTactics

    I'm taking profits until I figure out what happened…

    Then maybe I'll re-short…

  • T_dub

    Thats a charged-up bear ! If the S&P fills and breaks through the 1075-1077 gap, you can be even more certain. But let the bear show some more force before we crown it. So far, its on track :-)….

  • Onorio

    I dont wanna repeat myself but…FUCK! what a HUGE RED candle!

  • Onorio

    Hold on to those puts A! 😀

  • dollar

    This is an even better excuse:

    3:26 PM The government will reportedly order deep pay cuts from the biggest bailout recipients in a plan the Treasury will announce in the next few days. The seven companies that got the most assistance will have to cut cash payouts to their top 25 execs by an average of 90% – to be replaced by stock that they'll be restricted from immediately selling – and cut their total compensation by 50%.

  • rangefinder

    Wow – now that's worth watching…looks like its stabilising – any idea WTF caused this???

  • insite

    dip buyers smacked down in 5….4…..3….2…..

  • amokta

    tell me, seeing as i was only born yesterday (!), did large intraday swings in stock indices/stocks occur to this degree in the 1980s/90s/20s market turns
    also reports of the 'imminent demise of the US dollar and US Treasuries' have been greatly exaggerated, according to Prechter & Gamble at EWI ?? true or false

  • Onorio

    Big Bad Bear.

  • dollar

    XLF at its trend line from March

  • centerline

    Vix clearly rejected the 20 today

  • gannsecret

    Dubster,
    Shit man we have been hovering here for almost 6 days. We should have kissed 1108 by now, the fact we haven't is not very bullish !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE what good timing that was O 🙂

  • Marc45

    I'd like to see the board of directors of these companies feel some pain. Ultimately they were responsible for this condition.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    We like to be early. We're all masochistic…

    Skål!

  • Onorio

    The lower TL from the channel formed since 05/oct has been broken.

  • nyxjf

    you mean calls?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Die Gold/ die USO Die Equities 🙂

  • Onorio

    I short 3 pts early…damn!

  • Tronacate

    DTG is now acting more like the POS it is

  • Hanuman

    Anna rules again ….

    Returned after an hour long meeting. Market has moved 100 points….to DEEP RED.

    Anna's uncanny instinct … rules again. How can't she be not from GS ???

    Anyway great call for EOD RED Anna … congrats !

    Lap dog – Member Anna's fan club : )

  • omelette

    don't like that the zero isn't playing along with this either… but at least this should satisfy berk's desire for a blow off top

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No puts I bought at high of day and then just doubled down when we were down about 50 dow points 🙂

  • gannsecret

    See what I mean by the hourly Vix being a little
    early ? SSHHHHHHH…..

  • Onorio

    Die EUR!

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Never have I been happier to have baled out early on a geronimo trade with a lousy hundred bucks profit.

    I didn't take it, but the retracement levels trade today to short at SPX 1101 with a stop at 1103 really worked out well for anyone that did.

  • Tronacate

    nobody paid attention to my s FSLR……

  • gregn

    Looks like $SPX found support at 1082.24

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Hanuman, I thought the $DXY being so low and the tape not following that we might have a short term crash. 🙂

  • funkypenguin

    My favorite story of the day (even if I don't agree it's completely justified) but for pure revenge sake – love it

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Lips zipped… Nice.

    Skål!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hehehe die EUR for O 🙂

  • shortcover

    still have some QID and SRS open (haven't written calls on them)…and my FAZ trade from last week is paying off…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    $VIX has almost doubled since this am. 🙂

  • dollar

    and UUP up a little on this – running to strength?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Yeeeeeeeeessssssssss 🙂

  • ds2

    I'm w/ you Jack. I bailed at even on BGU after scalping w/ it a few times today. I saw the short set up which is why I left. Wish I had taken the short. Seems every time I do lately I get burned.

  • Scoops

    Trannies are off 2.5%. Look at that candle. That is a substantial reversal, which btw was not confirming today's upside whatsoever.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Bove was the catalyst, who knew???????? LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • RYCH

    good old buck – $DXY

  • funkypenguin

    Bulls are on very, very thin ice if true – downgrade of WFC should not move the market like this.

    Wondering if something else is going on e.g. is this Galleon hedge fund unwinding in a panic

  • gannsecret

    Tomorrow when all the bank traders are at the movie theatre
    or trading desks someone could yell…………….

    FIRE !!!!!!!

    “Everyone please move to the exits in an orderly fashion”,
    yea right.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    I got worried after the bull flag on SPX broke to the upside and came back. Not a good sign.

    I didn't short it, but I'm training myself to wait for high probability setups only. I have a bad habit of taking positions just to pass the time.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    covering few more – holding about 4x

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you are getting passionate…me liking it 🙂

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhog Scrillhog

    don't buy that…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    where is everyone?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    ahh… Mole did New Pst on me 🙁

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    can I say “bomb” on the plane?

  • edwardo_62

    Nice, unwitting, top call there son.

  • gannsecret

    Only, if you want to spend a lot of hours with
    homeland security.  🙂

  • jaxon

    how are the talking heads and empty suits explaining this one?

  • DMS425

    Mole,

    You may have called the top? Let hope the correction can begin.

  • jaxon

    F_____ the correction. Let's get on with PW3 directly. back to the main event. i'd like to get this bear market over with while i'm still young. it's almost laughable the way they keep trying to blow air into a bubble that's full of holes. they're gonna run out of wind soon enough. what they need is a new bubble.

  • T_dub

    I couldn't agree more, GS. How about one hourly bear candle to undo six days of bull-work.

    Having said that, I'm gonna be like Bill Belichick and say “that was a good performance, we have to now focus on the next trading day” with a dour face. Unless I see some real confirmations, no cigar lighting here yet. Of course, I'm short to my eyeballs… :-D…

    Target remains the same: SPX 905 by Nov 16th or 17th.