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Let’s Talk About Gamma Risk
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Let’s Talk About Gamma Risk

by The MoleAugust 23, 2019

In a featured comment yesterday I mentioned gamma risk in SPX and SPY options as one of the reasons explaining recent hedging activity in the VIX and ES futures. It’s a complex topic that we’ll have to peel one slice at a time. Let’s begin by considering that options in essence are multi-dimensional financial derivatives in that they exhibit sensitivity to not only price, but also time and volatility (yes interest rates as well but that’s not an issue in our current market environment).

I’m sure most of you guys are familiar with delta, gamma, theta, and vega – which we call the option greeks. I actually posted an introduction to all of them, so if you haven’t read it then I strongly recommend you point your browser here.

Delta is rather easily explained: It’s the rate of change in an option for every dollar move in the underlying.Β For example, if an option has a delta of 0.65, this means that if the underlying stock increases by $1, then that option will rise by $0.65 per share, all else being equal.

I often compare delta with the velocity of an option ranging from 0.0 to 1.0, whereas gamma represents its acceleration. Another way of putting it is that gamma is the delta of delta, but that’s more academic.

So why should we care about gamma? If you trade options in general you absolutely should care, but if you’re selling options, and thus are effectively delta and gamma negative, it is crucial to realize that gamma risk has the ability to wipe out your account in two seconds flat.

In order to understand why and how this happens let’s take a look at the September 20th option chain in the Spiders. I have selected the greeks and pay attention in particular to the gamma columns on both the call and put side.

A value of 0.03 means that delta will decrease or increase by 0.03 for every dollar move in the underlying. So if you look at the 292 call strike then you’ll see a delta of 0.51 and a gamma of 0.3. The 290 strike (one Dollar further ITM) has delta of 0.51 + 0.03 = 0.54.

So okay, gamma changes delta – makes sense. But what is the big deal?

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The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Mole, you have a minor typo in this line: The 290 strike (one Dollar further ITM) has delta of 0.51 + 0.3 = .54.

    It should be 0.03 for the gamma, and makes the math work.

  • BobbyLow

    Gotta love them Greeks. Delta, Gamma, Theta and Vega. Back when I was trading Options, I found that they could be my best friends or my worst enemies.

    Got a little lucky this morning. Because of the substancial directional price action in futures taking place in after hours and in pre-market lately, I’ve begun experimenting beginning my trading day a couple of hours earlier during pre-market. I went short this morning at 7:30 AM EDT at 2930. I’ve also switched over to trading 15 Minute Candles and at the beginning of my 8 AM Candle, I was just getting ready to jump into the shower and this crazy spike down hit. I don’t know what caused it and I pretty much don’t care. I covered my short in about 30 seconds after the drop began at 2910 for a 20 Point Gain before Ms. Market could take it back.

    Price is still falling and it looks like I could have left a lot on the table but that’s OK. It also looks like it’s going to be one of those typical Jackson Hole “ride em cowboy” days. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    This must have spooked the already jittery markets. I’m also short Oil via SCO and so far so good on this one as well.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-wipe-out-gains-to-turn-negative-after-report-indicates-china-readying-tariff-countermeasures-2019-08-23

  • mSquare

    This is more to do with China retaliatory tariffs announced strategically just before Jackson Hole meet and the G20 on Saturday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Agreed. I found the link on China and posted it below. So I suppose next it’ll be I’ll see your 75 Billion and raise 150 Billion.

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, I took you up on your idea about altering my trading hours and am now begining my day in pre-market. I’ll do this until until it stops working but for now it’s been a good move. So thanks for the suggestion. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    what the heck is Powell going to say about US rate outlook to an international stage of rich actors….the drama in fed speak is now hitting all time high…..thanks Greenspan….evil f%#k….

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Looks like the fed lost the spotlight unless they cancel interest rates. This market dumps next week as China tries to strike back? I am guessing it does.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like the Bots are going to need an extra dose of WD 40 before today’s close. LOL

  • ridingwaves

    I started scaling into shorts yesterday….next week looks ripe for take down….Sept 1 is just around the corner, seems everybody forgot….

  • ridingwaves

    carefully watching developments was good for quick 20 point move
    real news-new home sales fell 12%……an ad popped up on another feed running and it was about buying an affordable home in San Ramon for a cool 1.5 million…..
    thanks Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner….you pigs…

  • DaVerg
  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Trump is getting pissed. Expect a tweet and a fired up response by Sunday night. Just a thought, have a nice day. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    your being generous, an hour at most….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys on the sidelines Looking at Natty Gas UNG a corrective 3 wave pullback retracing 61.8%
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Yep ultra low interest rates have fucked savers and made homes in most cases unrealistically expensive. I also think a lot of people who entered the markets after 2009 and 2010 have been spoiled into thinking that good times will last forever.

    Speaking of 20 Point Moves, unless there’s a set up too good to pass up, I’m probably going to sit on my hands the rest of the day so I don’t play like I was in Vegas. I don’t want to risk giving up my gains from earlier this morning back to the house.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look at the Monthly. a controlled deleveraging if you ask me.
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1

  • ridingwaves

    smart move, I’m going to go out and make some money on clients….
    My gold beat down thoughts before opex were thrown out the window even though nothing said about lowering rates……gyrations of grandeur….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Trump is always pissed. I think Melania cut him off years ago.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m a bit shocked. But yes, get that trading in early, and then go for a post lunch nap. it’s a “win win!”
    ;-D

  • ridingwaves

    your channeling Lorena Bobbitt…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I do like to cut to the chase.
    har har.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry I just fixed it. Thanks for paying attention.

  • ridingwaves

    Got NUGT. sss

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Did you see where former Denver Bronco QB John Elway has ” The Claw” in both hands.? He is making aware of the affliction estimating 16 million Americans have it.The “Claw ain’t no fun GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}

  • ridingwaves

    I win…just under an hour

    Trump tweeted-who is our bigger enemy,” Powell or Chinese President Xi Jinping, after China announced new tariffs on American products.

  • ridingwaves

    gold is going parabolic right now….

  • BobbyLow

    OK Mole. I think it’s time for the Monks again. LOL

  • RoastBeeph

    Damn, look at gold take off, as well as treasuries. Long GC and ZB is paying off huge today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bo Knows
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlqTEyazZf4
    dam, when did he get old??

  • ridingwaves

    he was well on his way to being best back ever…..it was a pleasure watching him run and run right thru defensive playas….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    don’t be short’n gold, it don’t play any reindeer games.

    https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1

  • BKXtoZERO

    wow… what a day… I was up at 5am and saw the hit, now I just got up to see another reversal… THIS is volatility!

  • ridingwaves

    SPX candle just ruined that bullish chart, under the 100sma now…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    pass me the barf bag!!

    https://i.gifer.com/GP0r.gif

  • RoastBeeph

    This could be the start of the move to 1600.

  • BobbyLow

    I know I did the right thing by holding onto gains and sitting on my hands but I kinda wish I did have balls enough to reshort that move back up. But the markets are either euphoric or shitting the bed on every word said. It’s like tip toeing through a mine field. WOW!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Love KL and happily holding SPXS as well. Now, Trump tweet!

  • RoastBeeph

    Long Metals, long treasuries, short equities!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bright Green and peachy keen where I am…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XHB Homebuilders 14.67 strong support 14.61 is daily 5 ema Setting up for a nice short following a spike high yesterday and busts 5 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this run-to-safety on gold, I thought TLT would be farther on the daily.

    whoa ..hi-ho Silver!

  • ridingwaves

    opex on Tuesday

  • BobbyLow

    That 26 Point Spike Down took less than 10 or 15 Seconds. It was amazing!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HAS, how many chinese toys are on a boat to ‘Merica for Xmas?
    a lump of coal for all.

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HAS

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX Today’s low and subsequent Yup off exactly the lower cloud boundary Nailed a nice day trade Gotta run https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/552ec55fa5026c98c2b8cf87f708621b13b3b1acf51d5a63a992a023f0c69269.png
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Newmont Mining,
    run for the border??

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NEM

  • BKXtoZERO

    Shorted IYR, real estate via DRV on IYR bounce back up to 93.35.

  • Ronebadger

    My neighborhood after last night’s storm on Long Island. Generator is running. We cleaned the front yard after a HUGE branch just missed the house (green house). TV almost working. Internet good. A lot of folks fared worse than we. Everyone safe, I believe. Two phone poles snapped. Oak trees up rooted. Oak trees snapped (some had rot inside).

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac3849a5b8e0b9126608d349290a69c2d96f54bd7a8c7cb7cec43586f1765118.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/adeeb700a235641db3eb542b8065ae5035e56ddb4999ec01bb97acf4047d725c.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee99677087a2c3e47cef825c6ef692a26c4fec65904d44256e2886f1e7320ea4.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9600b9ba0cac4ff9b8c8f11602b26ac230f4fdb0bfa14ccde9cddab2065fdfd3.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0da18e980385f8eb1edc25f7f71456d1e4710863738a631a5e14cc9e982eaec.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Funny how everybody wants to save Mother Earth. See? this is what ‘Mother’ does to its loving children!
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    I like earthquakes….Tornadoes not so much

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am aroused……………..

  • BobbyLow

    Yikes. That looks like one hell of a storm hit. Glad you’re OK.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Beautiful neighborhood RB Stay safe
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. I hope you had your usual bunch of TVIX.

  • ridingwaves

    damn, I wasn’t done scaling in….2800 next week

  • mSquare

    ^TNX now 1.53 and looks like heading for the 1.50 lows of Aug 15!

    Perhaps if more US companies relocate their businesses out of China and to the US really fast, or the incompetent Fed takes the rates to 0 in big swoop or US buys Iceland (as it is greener than Greenland anyway)…

  • Ronebadger

    Electrical wire hit a guy’s car and all that’s left is metal. The street asphalt caught fire…still a soft, warm street this morning. This canopy and aluminum frame blew out of someone’s backyard and landed in the street two houses away! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4d75a6fe0c3930ea94297bbbc5352e5d24063f8565668cfc2a0f665137fd9dd.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a55fb61560746a60c58d504d1d25ca53614d426316f43036faf115656422c52d.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    look at reverse VIX instrument volume…….41M already for tvix…..27-8 next week

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    It was…will be again. Good thing my granddaughter’s 1st Birthday (at our house) is NEXT weekend. Funny, how you meet your neighbors only after a “disaster”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the best thing for those Millenials would be a month long EMP.
    ok, a few Mill would have to die. but wouldn’t it create a monster reality check? and new friends? so long mamby, pambies.

  • ridingwaves

    Short at will.

    Trump says he’ll be responding to China tariffs Friday afternoon

  • ridingwaves

    month long, we’ll all be dead

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Look at the bright side, you got your fire wood supply covered for the next few winters.

  • ridingwaves

    and the flag is still flying

  • BKXtoZERO

    General George S Patton:

    If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.
    A good plan violently executed right now is far better than a perfect plan executed next week.
    I changed my Avatar back….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dcf2ec2edfbf19d96ae9c551c7341d1f3eee33124065dc8e5bb595ca5669b499.jpg

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    This is great once you figure out the tweet indicator!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have a nice pile…. I thought about getting cute at 2870 but sitting tight

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Normally I would be looking for a reversal right in here. But with a pleasant surprise coming from Trump, I’ll just hold my position.

  • ridingwaves

    mine is quite large avg. 16.80

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I take it nobody here trades options?

  • bankwalker

    There will always be a strong remnant that survives.

  • RoastBeeph

    I sell options, sure. For open positions, I have sold September NFLX, AOBC, and BREW calls.

    I don’t like buying naked calls or puts. Time works against you.

    Nice article, BTW. I need to get more sophisticated with my option plays. I don’t really pay attention to the greeks when I should.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Besides being at 38% retracement (of the retracement) I don’t see any horz support here, probably heading much lower after a failure like this. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56b1ae81b2afb2cba4dcfd0bdd132c6b2ba5b25d5a5e4254aa14524e8aaf0e8a.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How far out?

  • ridingwaves

    “Book of Eli” in reality huh?

  • BKXtoZERO

    notta mea

  • ridingwaves

    that is one busy chart….how do u read it?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Maybe some of those cats were taken out….

  • RoastBeeph

    These are the positions I sold (not today, mind you, over the past week):

    NFLX Sept 20, 305 Strike Calls
    AOBC Dec 20, 7 Strike Calls
    BREW Sep 20, 10 Strike Calls

  • BKXtoZERO

    jewelers head glass magnifier…………..

  • ridingwaves

    that would work…

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah, the one’s with the guns

  • Ronebadger
  • ridingwaves

    its not going to be good for bulls…..I have a inner theory about “take the market down this year, not election year”

    the 5, 10, 20 and 40 week cycles meet at the bottom for the grand finale sept-oct

  • Ronebadger

    Power back on, I’m told…but I have to wait for the generator to run out of gas.

  • BobbyLow

    Interesting theory. Machiavlli would be proud. πŸ™‚

    The one problem is that there’s no guarantee that the market would come back by next year.

  • bankwalker

    It’s gonna give the people that got scared out on Christmas Eve another chance to get back in. There’s a lot of them.

  • ridingwaves

    true that….but the cycle chart I posted in past is all playing out perfectly, they all nest at the bottom end of Sept.

  • zzezzezz

    …and here comes the PPT….

  • zzezzezz

    i dabble in the “tastytrade” style a bit…

  • mSquare

    I typically sell a lot of options. Especially on days like today when premium is juicier. Often naked Puts but often Put spreads.

    eg. Had bought bunch of Oct $185 Puts when Apple was > $210 past few days and today selling nearer Puts against it. Aim is to keep selling the just out-of-the-money Puts against the lower Puts held long and profit from the decay. Works best with big-value stocks like Amazon / Google or volatile ones like CRM, TWTR

  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are in good hand – Tom Sosnoff knows what he’s doing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Be careful with those naked puts. Only takes one outlier day for some deep hurtin’

  • BobbyLow

    IMO Put Spreads are fine but naked option selling can be dangerous. One of my biggest losses ever was selling Naked Options on Fannie Mae many years ago. I mean what can be safer than a government backed bank? Right? I think Fannie was selling for about $130 per share at the time and price dropped about 1/3 overnight. The next day I had a shitload of FNM put to me and was the proud owner of a gigantic piece of shit that never that never recovered.

    I also had a friend who was holding naked options of SPY on May 6th 2010 the day of the infamous Flash Crash. No more naked options for me. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Amen! Please see my reply just above.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Locked in 1/2 TVIX 19.75, new account highs, heading to the good restaurant today.

  • ridingwaves

    patience grasshopper….it will run for a bit here, vix candle acting like 10-10-18 candle..22 might be in play here 16.08-22.96 10-10 range
    16.15- 22?

  • ridingwaves

    2690 has been on my radar for a while…..

  • ridingwaves

    thinking Trump rolls back tariff delay and puts it back on for the 9-1 in retaliation…..

  • Sp00nman

    Man crazy day, was it a tweet or news event at 11 that caused the break or just the culmination of crap? I had a plan to add some shorts at the close today but wasn’t expecting a big down move today. I guess today isn’t risk free friday like usual.

  • BKXtoZERO

    NO ONE Expects the Spanish Inquisition…. Except me, but I expect it every day

  • Sp00nman

    Good job trading TVIX!

  • mSquare

    Yes indeed! Sure, this can be a poor strategy when you use it with over-leverage, but has been working well for many including me.

    My biggest rule for these is avoid being greedy – I sell naked puts on stuff I am willing to own as a long and by having enough cash in my account (no margin) in case assigned.

    If used this way a short put is like having bought stock long at the specific (typically lower) strike price than where it is trading right now. In fact, mathematically a Short Put is exactly the same as long stock – not any more or less risky.

    e.g. Say you want to buy a strong up-trending stock such as MSFT – then sell some Puts as it declines a bit off recent highs for a 1-3% lower strike and if the decline continues you risk being Put the stock and thus triggering a ‘buy-the-dip’ of something you liked anyway, or it starts going up once again you cover the Put and take profits if it hardly moves, the time decay works for you anyway and you can cash-in after a while. My rule of thumb is to sell the Puts 2-3 weeks out and cover when I have about a double or stop when it when it moves 25% against me …

  • ridingwaves

    Makes you wonder why JPM had conference call on Tuesday discussing volatility in market with clients
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-markets/jpmorgan-to-brief-clients-on-volatility-in-equity-markets-idUSKCN1V80LK

  • BKXtoZERO

    Anyone care to weigh in on China selling our bonds? How that would play out against gov banks and scared investors buying? Bond volatility is getting interesting finally for trading bonds and seeing larger moves.

  • mSquare

    Sure, they are selling some treasuries like all bond holders should be doing and raking in the profits. e.g Simple TLT is up 18% YTD and past 1-year v/s SPY almost flat since Jan 2018 highs.

    In a way, they also need and can actually utilize these profits to help pay for some stimulus programs. A bit different from US-based holders where there are not much other places to gainfully use the proceeds (a stock buyback is not same as building a new factory)

  • nirav777

    Zero showing nada….

  • ridingwaves

    primary dealer inventory of treasuries from 1-2 years quadrupled from 20B in 10-18 to 86B as of Aug 7th….China just needs to stop buying….they sold 66B in last year
    Japan now leads for most treasuries by foreign country….they have no where else to put their money….

    institutions have bought 576B of treasuries over last year……

    who is going to buy the next trillion is important…

  • ridingwaves

    ruh oh…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Presidential tweets a market mechanism now going to be utilized by all future presidents.Going to happen guys A precedent has been set
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HFT’s will be relocating as close as possible to the White House to take advantage of grabbing the earliest millisecond of a tweet
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The next time a President comes to Montana I am doing to sneak up to Air Force 1 and plant a listening device so I can be the first to grab a tweet on board the plane
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Nope. I don’t think so unless we have another President who thrives on chaos.

  • RoastBeeph

    An early warning Trump Tweet indicator would be the ultimate investing tool. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    playing craps today, if they can push it up to 2867, I’m pressing the 6’s and 8’s hard

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    one day it won’t work!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    hahaha

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Despite the wild gyrations the move up from the recent lows looks messy ‘ percentage wise the moves are not huge ‘ despite what the talking heads like to show with headlines such as “markets crash!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e783da736ac03243bd7f28b0b7d3741447055f171c9087124b0b9d2bd3f9ae36.png

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    a weeks into the holiday this is what we did today
    Highly recommended
    https://youtu.be/jkaacmmG3i0

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying a end of day scalp…back in that half position tvix at 20 but tight

  • BobbyLow

    Today is a day I should have had more of a gamblers mentality but unfortunately I can’t easily turn the gambling part of me on and off. So I have to be satisfied with this morning’s gains and gains on my short oil swing position.

    This has been an unreal day. I think there might be a few more of them as we go along though.

  • ridingwaves

    they are having hard time finding buyers here

  • ridingwaves

    next week with auctions calendar and tariffs looks uneasy…and earnings are pretty much done…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Let’s talk about BK kicking their ASSES today! I have actually restrained myself from posting too much today! I am getting better about being not as huge of a Jerk… No Queen video today, No Monty Python, No Muhammad Ali…. No Big Red gum commercial But this little ditty is dedicated to investors.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d784725f939c8a7eb3ff963125b4133d9868a96c34468a79d5866819d7e26d4.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. And one more thing is that if we are in a Bear Market, the decay can take place over months, or even years with massive rallies occuring from time to time before a true bottom is hit. Regardless there will be plenty more opportunities to go both short and long because the motion never stops.

  • BobbyLow

    LMAO

  • bankwalker

    BK feeling rather large right now …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gweUVWUYYQ8

  • Sp00nman

    Trump is supposed to have a response to the China tariffs. Me thinks if it’s during market hours it’s bullish to cause a pop. If it’s AH’s it’s likely market negative so he waits AH’s..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys In exactly 60 seconds I am issuing my 1st tweet BKX TO ZERO Get ready guys to short them Banks 60 – 59 – 58 – 57 …. !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    ZERO!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX scalp portion +.80

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Buying some UNG Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I don’t know… I am still waiting for 2$ Nat Gas to be hit

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Just buying UNG on technicals A corrective 3 wave pullback retracing 61.8% and today a nice pop
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like a close at the LOD. Don’t see that happening much on a Friday.

  • ridingwaves

    2500 could now be in play……..2690 first…..

  • RoastBeeph

    1 contract each of Long ES, Long GC, and Long ZB would have netted the person $9,000 today.

  • RoastBeeph

    Wow, I hope you are right. Going to stick with my intermediate term bias for a while (at least, thats the plan): Long metals, long treasuries, short equities. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes BL Unusual as Friday’s are almost neutral to positive
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trimmed a little more TVIX off at 21.06, a bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush with this SOB symbol. Have a good weekend all!

  • BobbyLow

    I think you meant Short ES.

  • bankwalker

    long es?

  • RoastBeeph

    Whoops, yes, sorry. One short ES, one Long GC, one long ZB = $9,300 today.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. Would have been one hell of a day. One problem though would be unless a person is seriously capitalized it would have been tough to hold these three all day today without throwing up. LOL

  • ridingwaves

    actually haven’t sold one short or volatility long….I like big gains….no need scalp right now….been waiting 36 weeks for this cycle nest to come to fruition….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX,
    whew, that was close. I was almost Bully.
    I was definitely waking up today, with Bully expectations/bias.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98023446434

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In addition to BPSPX I use $NYSI must go above it’s 10 sma No cigar ! IMO use both for corroboration Very Very accurate
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Today was like a Black Swan event. All one can do is see if there is follow thru to the downside on Monday. What’s crazy BL is next week is a Holiday week and ? ? ? Have A Great Weekend BL I am on the sidelines with just one position today at close long UNG based on technicals A corrective 3 wave pullback retracing 61.8% and a nice pop closing near it’s high today with above average volume
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I made a few bucks on a day trade SPX going long on a bounce off lower cloud. Other than that just watched and long UNG near close
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    weekly ES options that expired at todays close paid 30X if purchased in yesterdays AH

  • BKXtoZERO

    This is good. It means you have discipline.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I use a third indicator. The blonde as a counter-signal.
    LOL.
    Bearish? Bully!
    Bully? Bearish!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG My 3rd indicator is all the hot air coming north out of AZ The hotter the more bearish LOL
    JULIE

  • mSquare

    Yes, he is adding to tariffs by 5%

  • Cyd

    Julie I have been trying to get a hold of you.? ? A driver showed up at my place with 22 hogs.and said that they were mine.I was only to get 3. What’s going on ? I have texted and called Are you still at the office or heading home
    Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    where will Trading Gangster be, Orgy parties at burning man….quite the list
    https://playaevents.burningman.org/playa_event/search/2019/%3F?search=orgy

  • Darkthirty

    Got a chiller? Seems like you’ve got 19 that need butchering, sounds like a party to me!

  • Cyd

    It’s crazy Julie’s husband and nephew raises hogs and we ordered some.I have room for 3 large whites which I raise and her husband takes the remainder of an order. Several months ago they sold their stock.This is bonkers
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    I’ve dealt with livestock, so I understand the enormity of your situation. Is your pen gonna hold up? What does they invoice say? Are they slaughter weight? Get a couple kegs and round up a crew! Cash up front delivery says shut up and get to work!

  • Cyd

    Spring birth and not slaughter weight. Invoice says 22 for me. I did not buy 22 I bought 3 Calling now Grizz was to receive 31 which were delivered this a.m. Things are all messed up
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Sounds like free pigs! They’re always a PITA to keep confined, preferred cattle. I cant eat pig either, it’d be cannibalism : D

  • Cyd

    PITA are chickens. Never ever have them again.A few hogs ok They are calling me back now
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Chickens are great if you have kids to care for them, chase eggs, and learn to kill and butcher. Pigs and steers can be too much for youngsters… You don’t raise meadow maggots?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Cyd They just called and are going to sell the remaining 19 on your supposed delivery to us for 1/2 price. Their screw up Cyd. Everything is OK.The driver has been notified.Get over here for a drink of Fireball.I have been texting and calling you too ?
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Good deal!

  • BKXtoZERO

    quite a schedule…. I will ask my wife if I can go hang with the guys next year

  • BKXtoZERO

    sell some hog futures and make someone else take delivery….. FAST

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    I think so too. The big dogs are strategic planners.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I asked. good luck with that.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    bears make money, bulls make money, pigs? ask Julie. πŸ˜‰

  • Sp00nman

    Tweet about tariffs being raised at 5pm on the dot. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    OOOOHHHHH But you woke up Mooonday feeling bullish from your other chart. 50 lashes with a string of overcooked gluten free spaghetti

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Silver Weekly,
    I stated 3 weeks ago it was significant. It still stands.

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/occam8217s_razor/#comment-4564334089

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Did I say I was perfect?
    LOL. whip it, whip it good!

    Hey Cyd, we look forward to the bacon bikini pics!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ps. SPX is still in the range of that volatility rodeo arena.
    Monday will be interesting!!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffabb9e772a6b15192906c416a8c5260a581dc8dc052ba945ab7be16f0a2b69f.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    well me neither…..

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was noticing same, that we were in the area of previous tails.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    UPS,
    broke out of descending trend line, but no escaping the weekly envelope.
    HWB on that mega-candle.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/78134c1cb08fac6fc2d7264e057a7c4553ec3c0c3133c08d7e5c7bdc246de45b.png

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Cyd

    One strip of bacon or two strips of bacon LOL
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    TWO.
    we keep it classy here at EvilSpec.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Hello Mr G It’s been awhile. Just checking some charts. I made a little on Cotton Julie and I have been watching the action since Denver and no trades of significance. This volatility is bearish and let’s be very careful
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Cotton, good. The CydBond is performing well, your investment club must think you a Genius!?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBND&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15205980300

  • Cyd

    We enjoy it very much and the premise is for longer term investments The weekly chart that you displayed with the 10 and 50 ema’s we added a few indicators to it and works like a champ. Julie and I presented it to the club and it’s the mantra for stocks and indices Weekly RSI 27 and full stochs 50,3,3 Someday a raspberry cheesecake Mr G
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Most Excellent.

    As I posted recently, TLT will possibly top. nothing lasts forever.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7902964f7c05428a875fe3d38eda3b6067d83b0651788c2d902a415e94e2cf03.png

  • Cyd

    I bought the 35 bottom and sold the 37 spinning top
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    long on a downhill? impressive!

  • Cyd

    We are watching TLT too. The talk of the town is yield curve inversion The most advertised inversion in history so Mr G let’s time this bond move. I think we can but better yet as Grizz always says the shorter high on a bounce
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it is talked about too much, so in my book – will not be as expected. it’s a trap!

  • Cyd

    The 1st 35 was a washout selling exhaustion and the retest was on less volume . Perfect so I bought then a strong day with volume then up to 37. I did not short it back
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Q: how do you raise piglets through the harsh Montana Winter’s?
    4-6 months of raising?

    edit: I would think you’d need a sheltered barn with heat source.

  • Cyd

    Exactly our sentiments too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Wow.
    pigs aren’t easy! But I’m sure you have the constitution for it.

    https://modernfarmer.com/2016/05/raising-pigs/

  • Cyd

    Hogs are tough I have a small pen that is enclosed with a heat pump that Julie’s husband installed with timers and all kinds of gadgets. Well water that goes to an underground tank so it does not freeze.Then it’s pumped up with floats and pressure this and pressure that He did all that for me too Hogs and pigs can withstand harsh environments.
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Mr G hogs and pigs are great alarms like geese. The U.S. Army uses geese on perimeters and they start to gaggle when approached. Hogs will do the same
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    my ignorance. Pig shelters I see on TV are more for shelter from heat!

    “Pigs are “most comfortable” in temperatures ranging from 18-20Β° C
    (64.4-68Β°F)”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    just make sure Grizz has some backup capacitors for that heat pump. They go out just at the wrong time!

    EDIT: Julie told me he’s an IBEW worker, otherwise I wouldn’t open my mouth.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tM6u00tZHk

    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    They just walk in and walk out Hogs are very intelligent A swinging door

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Julie and Grizz have had as many as 80. They donate some to the MSU Agricultural Dept and the students come out and help out . They have big hearts Mr G. They have a tremendous amount of respect in the community
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “To much whom is given, much is required”.
    πŸ˜‰

    Cui multum datum est multum quaeretur ab eo

  • Cyd

    Once a month one of the members of our investment club hosts a small Texas Hold Em game. Julie and I have a lot of fun. We have a few drinks and play poker
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Mr G I have been reading some possible scenarios if China uses the military option on Hong Kong.Sanctioning their banks.Cutting Huawei and ZTE Sending students home Hobbling Hong Kong’s financial center could really put pressure on global finance and indices
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Yes, war has become more efficient.

  • Cyd

    One demonstration had a million protesters.The China Mainland is in a big quandary If they use force it will be their demise in the longer term perspective. They will not be able to defeat the younger generation on this one Next week protests are scheduled at universities and another city wide strike. The snowball is getting bigger and bigger

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    It’s high stakes in Asia. and I will tell you why.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxmrcfbklVg

  • BKXtoZERO

    V for Vendetta! V!

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Cyd

    Sunday 4:30 pm MDT DOW futures down 266

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    It’s a LOT of What The Hella !
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’m off to get a hair-cut!

    so glad I’m sheltered for now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Did I say ‘interesting Monday’??

    4hr chart. so messed up. Even with HWB.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86da43c212488363b2895be3b07e76dc6cd9dfbec4e86cf9ed5b0157cf623877.jpg
    Ms. Market dislikes uncertainty. Hong Kong is definitely uncertain.

    Excuse me, I have an invite to the Sloppers party next door. LOL.
    free Salmon sushi.

  • Ronebadger
  • HD

    Pivots and fibs. Quants still pouring over the data of the most complicated strategies know to man.

  • HD
  • Cyd

    Futures have come back 50%. I would not be surprised if they come back 100%
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Bear flag ?
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    A nice EW pattern GLIBA 5 waves down from mid July then 3 waves up from August 1
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/980bae0c370aff11570810eee9f9a13d0cf6894cb63c5631c2256c9a91a4b832.png

  • Cyd

    Mr G Did you get a buzz cut ? LOL
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    No.
    could you be a pal, and run on down to the store and get me some hair gel?
    πŸ˜‰
    https://photos.laineygossip.com/articles/ryan-harrison-blade-runner-27sept17-07.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Yes.
    with an eventual 2733.

  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Mr g You can use your head as a scratch pad LOL
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Possible 2725 or 2650
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I stay out of arms reach.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    You don’t need hair gel You need sunscreen pf 100 where you live. A red dome you could take the place of Rudolph on Christmas Eve LOL
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s called a baseball cap sweetie.
    look it up.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    those golfing ladies have no ass. It’s just a fact.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    where’s Julie?, she should be going ape-sh!t about now.

    this little piggy had roast beef, this little piggy had none…

  • Cyd

    Julie and I don’t golf but we play volleyball. She plays more than I do
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you’re a net girl, I could almost bet on it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Cotton, monthly. always look left, after waxing-on.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a07cc41cee7529bac2fadcd4f48f81107b3ef2e96c24eb64e4ac1c13b9065f6.png
    Cotton & Copper recession whispers.

  • Cyd

    I’m 5 -7 Julie is 5 – 6
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    that’s too bad, since you share clothes. your belly button is always showing!

  • Cyd

    We have shared clothes from day one.It’s great.She wears a lot of black and white.i have a lot of brown and green.She does not like the green LOL
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    I have purple and orange too She avoids those too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Well! purple and orange are Phx Suns colors. Booo Hisss on her.

  • Cyd

    GG Julie looks great in black being blonde. White too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Mr G One guy she was dating called her the Black Widow. She found out and dumped him LOL
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    We haven’t looked at soybeans lately. New tariffs coming on them shortly by China. It will be interesting
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    a whole Charlotte’s web thing.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Cyd

    That’s a good one LOL
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Futures completely rigged Bouncing back DOW from – 350 and ES from – 32
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    algo’s closing the gap. nothing more.

  • Cyd

    Mr G It’s not right.Perhaps someday we will have free markets again.When it does go south someday IMO they will not be able to rig it.Shame on them as it will be complete hardship. Let it go as whwn it’s time the market will correct and a new bull will be born.
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    here is a close-up of YM. 4hr.
    it’s a fan bounce.
    but fans don’t work, Muwahahaha.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57c369c1ec520707690d80ca25a38b3f445818570f5186dd4f650ac7c163ee9a.jpg

  • Cyd

    Fans are great along with fib arcs
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    free Markets are over.
    The generals got smart, and discovered a globally wired Bank system is now at risk. It’s a matter of national security, whatever that means.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    arcs are very tricky. the scaling adjusts day to day.
    an arc that is perfect now, will look different weeks from now, IMHO.

  • Cyd

    We have done research and the currency used as the reserve currency lasts approx 80 – 100 years. The dollar is going to be replaced someday as it’s been the reserve currency since the end of World War 2. The British pound lasted approx 100 years
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    while ‘price mattered’ Wed-Friday last week….
    it’s doesn’t mean pig shit now.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    there should be one global currency.
    Computers are fast enough to correlate currency to currency by the hour.
    Nation’s don’t want to give up their inflating power.

  • Cyd

    Mr G Iraq with Saddam wanted to receive Euros in lieu of dollars for sale of Iraq’s oil. Grizz always thought that’s why the invasion to oust him. Weapons of mass destruction was the ploy and the real reason was his wanting Euros. Grizz may have been correct
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Excellent The U.S. will do anything to maintain the fiat currency. Russia and China have been stockpiling gold. I hope it does not lead to war.We could get our butts kicked especially in Asia
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Was it Mac Arthur said said never get involved in a war in Asia ? I believe it was him
    Cyd

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    I rarely look at these but I would be interested if we get a BT on the monthly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    or Princess Bride.

  • Cyd

    Mr G A major war the U.S. can do if attacked. Anything else like Korea and Vietnam we do not have the fortitude. Once American moms start seeing body bags we fold. Other nations have the fortitude as they have known war from day one Russia lost over 75 million in World War 2 and Germany estimated 38 million. Almost every Russian and Greman family lost immediate family members.

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    20-40 million people vaporized. yeah that would do wonders for the World.

  • Cyd

    It would be terrible
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Welcome to the Fourth Turning Crisis.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Bounce to around 2860 area? Took a small long lotto which is in the money now. Maybe bounce again off 2800 then I am going to get an eBay account and start selling hand baskets. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d1920e018bf415b1c9bea205f0ddc418fb54e3afb59332ba059e14865b998cc8.jpg

  • Cyd

    GG We have talked about it as it is a real possibility. We checked and unreal Montana is the safest place in U.S. if nuclear
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah, so if you could double your pig count..

  • Cyd

    3 to 6 LOL If there is a war I don’t think it would be nuclear only conventional.It could even be on our soil but China and Russia would need a navy for that to occur. But bombers could target our cities. It’s horrifying even to think about Mr G I wonder what Mole thinks ?
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Mr G Time for night night Laterz
    Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Easy money for retirees…. sell naked puts. Or something naked. This lady looks too young to retire. Something about options and retiring in the same sentence. It’s “safe”. Someone wake me up tomorrow morning when the PPT stalls.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/660c9903ef9f77c0796161c7d846d227bd66bf13e64345d2b2ac17d65d5b1282.jpg

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    What’s the latest tweet then? Must have missed it!

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Well it hit my target and more getting to 2876. Maybe we get to 2890-2900 before open.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Anyone watching ES here? we might have the bounce before the bell. Getting a little congestion at 2868 area. May just pop and poop at 2090-2900. I am in the Philippines so easy for me to be up to watch.