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May 18, 2018

Mid-Correction Crisis

So I was catching up with the E-Mini campaign this morning and suddenly experienced a bit of an epiphany. Looking at the daily panel I suddenly asked myself ‘what the hell are you doing?’

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not exactly unhappy regarding the fact that I was able to somehow squeeze out 4R+ in profits since the < 2600 lows early this month. But why do I keep expecting a directional move while we remain trapped in a sideways churn?

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May 17, 2018

VIX Sell Signal Versus Equities

So the other day the VIX issued a sell signal, which is to be understood relative to equities and not the VIX itself. Which means after a sell signal you either go long the VIX or short equities, and it’s the other way around for buy signals, which by the way have been the norm over the past eight/nine years. In case you require a reminder as to the rules:

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May 15, 2018

Euro Versus Dollar

The Dollar has eased back a little over the past days, giving rise to various pundits declaring the the rally as having played out. Well, frankly I’m not so sure and the justifications on both the bullish and bearish side, as always, are contradictory at best. What I do know however is that both the Dollar and the Euro are sitting near important inflection points, so let’s play!

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May 14, 2018

Looking Good, Billy Ray!

Despite my best intentions and perfect spring weather I ended up stuck in my evil lair all weekend attending to coding duties and various chores. Suffice to say I am not in the best of mood this morning and putting up a post wasn’t exactly high on my list. But since we’ve got movement I didn’t want to leave you guys hanging, so let’s get to it:

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Confirmation BiasConfirmation Bias
    When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is … more
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