Sorry lads (and ladies), we’re not going to talk about thigh gaps today although it may easily double traffic numbers here. Instead we’re up for another lesson in tape reading but I think it’ll be very worth your while. So, courtesy of our croissant dipping friends in France we all were bestowed with a fairly large opening gap across U.S. equities on Monday morning. Now opening gaps, especially in equities, often have a nasty habit of filling shortly thereafter, which then offers participants a tasty inflection point for getting positioned.
If you haven’t had a chance to read my most recent momo update then I strongly suggest that you do now as equity markets seem to be catching up with the two main scenarios I had outlined in my bottom line summary. Now if you aren’t a sub then you may have missed out on much of the meat of that post and now may be a good time to join up. PayPal may have been a hurdle for some readers over the past few years and I am very pleased to announce that Evil Speculator now finally accepts regular CC payments as well. So you’re officially fresh out of excuses
A few weeks ago during my trip to Tenerife Scott produced a post on testing mean reversion in the context of parsing for what I personally categorize as ‘Raw Edge Discovery’ (RED). Since I was on vacation I had very little time to contribute to the ensuing discussion but I had been planning to circle back on Scott’s post for two reasons: First I was positively surprised by the high level of interest regarding machine learning and basic system development. Secondly, although being rather comprehensive, I had felt that his post could benefit from a more in-depth explanation of the math behind scatter charts, which of course directly relates to linear regression.
We’ve watched the tape gyrate on a slow downward trajectory for several weeks now and a final resolution, to the up – or down – side, continues to evade us. Which I’m sure has been jittering quite a few nerves out there, especially given that many participants are unaware of or unwilling to embrace the reality of distinct market cycles. Which unlike our seasons seem to come and go in fairly unpredictable patterns, much to everyone’s chagrin. However acceptance of a cyclical market is tantamount to survival as a trader, as has been the recognition of and then response to climate variations throughout our evolutionary history.