No dancing Oompa Loompas thus far and that means we’re still in the game. Both the gold and silver campaigns are looking pretty good this morning so I hope you had a chance jump on board yesterday. Whatever you do keep your hands and feet inside the boat and don’t touch anything! Like Mr. Wonka the market can be rather unforgiving if you don’t know how let your winners run.
Apparently some alleged fat finger just caused a massive drop in gold moments ago dragging silver with it. If you’re a sub then you know that we were actually waiting for a slight drop in both last Friday. And boy are we glad that we didn’t get filled that day! Technically speaking this puts us on the fringes of the short term bullish scenario, however it does not invalidate it plus it’s possible we are going to see a bit of mean reversion.
Catching entries and holding them for more than a day or two has been increasingly difficult lately, in particular since the beginning of June. Not only are we in a seasonally bearish period during what still continues to be a late stage bull market (until proven wrong), but intra-day volatility also appears to be in a cycle of expansion. Originally this post was supposed to feature an early summer lottery ticket but upon further consideration I had to (once again – yes) err on the cautious side. Call me a chicken but I think a more conservative approach has kept us out of a lot of trouble recently.
One of my readers who goes by the callsign of ‘captainboom’ yesterday in passing mentioned that the week before the 4th of July was traditionally a bullish month, which of course peaked my interest. I used to work with a very talented statistician a few years ago going by Volar who among other things regularly posted very compelling seasonal analysis. I’m in the process of recreating some of that work in Quantopian but until then I think a glance of some of Volar’s general seasonal stats over the past fifty years should suffice.