Do Not Touch!

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos are leading higher this morning and didn’t even bother touching the 25-hour SMA. Quite a lot of mojo and if you’re long after the NLBL breach two days ago then I would simply continue holding but keep an eye on the SMA for early signs of trouble. The more interesting chart this morning however is the YM:

Which has been lagging both the NQ and ES in recent days – as a matter of fact compared to those two it really never got out of the gate. Now what’s really interesting here is the fact that it is barely hanging on to its own 25-hour right now and that the 25-hour BB is compressing rapidly. Which means that we are most likely about to see a jump in volatility here shortly – either today or Sunday night. I would prefer to see resolution today of course and will keep  a close eye on this one for signs of a take off or failure of holding that SMA.

AUD/JPY – very nice setup this morning as it’s kissing its 100-hour SMA as well as an hourly NLBL right now. For me this is pretty much procedural – long on a breach higher and short below the SMA.

I’m thinking continuation lower here on the NZD/USD and would not take on any long positions unless it manages to climb into 0.7885. That 25-hour SMA has been providing soft resistance – of course one can never rule out a sudden jump to the upper 25-h Bollinger. Which is falling hard and fast at this point, so any break higher may have difficulty getting out of the gate before next week.

Shameless Plug:

Yesterday’s Mole reversal signals via the Zero indicator running against the spoos. The first ones are to be ignored as there was a TOS data outage. Doesn’t happen often but it’s something I intend to fix once I’m done with releasing Crazy.Ivan.


It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Deceiver Of The Gods

With equities still buoyant it seems that the bulls may have a real chance to once gain pull the cart back out of the mud and get the show back on the road. We have some positive signs on the equities horizon plus a plethora of setups, so let’s get to it:

Once again the VIX is painting a buy signal – assuming nothing nasty happens in the woodshed before the NYSE close and that we finish below 18.5. Once again – a VIX buy signal is relative to equities, not the VIX – the implication usually are higher prices within a week’s time.

The spoos are now running into short term resistance which may be good news – hear me out. That little drive higher has put the bears on notice but a little pullback to the 100-day SMA may reel some of the weak hands back in. That would incidentally put us in an RTV Buy setup and that’s something I wouldn’t want to pass up. Yes, admittedly a bit speculative but heck – more outrageous things have happened here, right? ;-)

A little update from the shiny metal side – our inside period entry on gold has paid off handsomely today. Despite the possibility of a pullback I intend to hold my contracts as my charts don’t give me any reason to buy back right now.

Ditto on silver – that was almost surgical. For some reason gold and silver always has treated us well in the past few years. If you can detach yourself from having an opinion about precious metals then they can be quite a bit fun to trade.

Right – let’s get to the setups – we have plenty again today. USD/JPY at the 100-day SMA and in a potential RTV Sell configuration. Great setup with great context – I love how the whole shabang is wrapped within two daily SMAs. Don’t miss this one – I expect a fun resolution.

Quite a bit more looming below – please step into my lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Shameless Self Promotion:

I would be remiss to not again point out today’s Mole reversal signal on the Zero indicator which once again nailed today’s low on the E-Mini. If you’re still not subscribed then consider that a month sets you back less than a single handle on the E-Mini. If you’re interested to give it a test ride then subscribe right here. That’s right, give me your tired, your poor – your huddled masses yearning to breathe free :-)

Some of you old timers may remember that the Mole happens to be a metalhead, among other eclectic tastes of course, spanning from classical to trance to latin music, you name it I probably like it. I concede that metal is not everyone’s cup of tea but if you’ve got the same genetic mutation that somehow kicks your brain into overdrive upon being exposed to some eardrum splitting rapid sledgehammer drums then you simply can’t miss out on this one – it’s so fabulous that I dedicate today’s post to those mighty warriors of the North:

Here’s a little sample – please make sure that no animals or young children are within a minimum four mile radius:

Probably the best eight bucks I ever spent – enjoy!

Last Line Of Defense

In the spirit of the not so uncommon brinksmanship often observed when trading equities the last line of defense apparently incurred sufficient buying interest. The chart of the day is none other than my intrepid Zero chart where a Mole reversa signal painted the very low tick of the day (thus far):

And I ask you – does it get much better than this? If you weren’t a Zero subscriber today then I’m probably spending your money on my favorite stripper tonight. Aaaah… simple pleasures…

The second most important chart for us rats today is the weekly panel which I pushed into your faces before the NYSE open today. Thus far the 25-hour appears to be acting as it should – the bulls’ last line of defense. 1565 really was the magic marker and a trip below 1550 would have probably sealed the deal for the grizzlies. For now it’s holding up but the bulls aren’t out of the woodworks just yet.

For one today’s sell off, which has now completely tapered out, looked engineered – another reason why I was looking for a dip buy signal (thank you mighty Zero). And all of a sudden the buyers are going gangbusters – it may be an attempt to engineer a squeeze. However, with all the technical damage incurred it may also be an attempt to buy back at the lows and then see what happens. Whatever it is – be careful and unless you grabbed it at the lows don’t chase this one up.

It’s all about the Euro versus the Dollar though really – Fed versus ECB printing so to say. And the Bernank continues to outprint Draghi by far. Which why it was pretty predictable that this 100-day SMA would hold up. Now if the Euro can climb back above those two weekly SMAs then it should be good to go higher. IF NOT and it falls below then watch out below – first stop would be that NLSL at 1.29547.

Now let’s look at some juicy new setups – please step into my lair:

More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


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