Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

It’s officially summer now and quite out of season things are heating up across the front. Damn it – shouldn’t you guys be at the beach by now? Here’s the spoos plotting against the GBP/JPY (the carry pair we are tracking), the latter of which is pointing downward. So prepare yourself for the possibility of a little down cast – bring an umbrella. The NQ and TF are near their short term SMAs (e.g. 100 and 25 hour) so look for possible support there should we drop lower.

Otherwise there are no glaring signs tempting me to be short. The VIX:VXO ratio showed an abnormal spike last Friday but remember that it was quadruple witching day and it may just be an aberration. I suggest you keep an eye on the Zero indicator throughout the session to be alerted of any possible shake out attempt. Thus far at least the trend higher on the equities side continues unabated.

Setups – here’s crude which looks like it may gain traction via its 25-hour SMA. It’s a buy above the hourly Net-Line Buy Level at 107.36 – put your stop below the SMA.

Silver is looking rather ripe here as we have a juicy bollinger compression. The idea is a long above the NLBL.

I think the EUR/USD is a good swing trading vehicle right now. Obviously once we see a breach outside the sideways triangle things may accelerate. Be aware that it’s not uncommon to see a false breach first followed by a run in the opposite direction. When in doubt stick with the daily trend.

More goodies below the fold – grab your decoder ring and meet me in the lair:


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Here’s the daily Forex spread spike controller from Dukascopy. Look at those and compare them with your current broker. As a matter of fact I would appreciate if you would post screen grabs of your own b/a spreads. We need to start collecting a list of favorable brokers.

Cheers,

Bring On The Carnage

Yesterday I probably should have given more credence to the possibility that we may get follow through to the downside for the mere reason that none of the bears saw this one coming (we did – cough cough) and are probably either faking it at their favorite watering holes right now or are busy outside kicking a tree. My money is on this guy:

See, you can’t blame him – he really doesn’t like bananas. Now seriously the continuation lower today changes things considerably and I’ll tell you why. We should have had our bounce, then a drop lower toward support, then a final scare and finally it’s back to business as usual. What happened here is going to pop a lot of stops and leave folks rattled. When the invariable dip buyers finally show up they will be easy pickings for another leg lower – in other words today’s continuation kicks open the door for a medium term correction.

There is of course no predicting how far we’ll drop but the next logical support zone is near SPX 1920ish plus minus a few handles. Please refer to yesterday’s update if you don’t remember why. Although I don’t enjoy making lofty predictions I have pointed out a possible scenario which I call Soylent Orange (anyone remember those days?).

The only remaining equities setup yesterday was the TF and if you grabbed it you just earned yourself one R. I would probably take profits here at the EOD and call it a day as its other three brethren are rapidly falling toward their respective support zones.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – betting against the Dollar near important inflection points always is a good trade. Not much else to be said here – I still have hopes ole’ bucky can push higher but who am I kidding?

Coffee is looking pretty good here as it’s retesting its 100-day SMA and if we get an IP-S tomorrow I’ll take that one. The long side here does not interest me right now.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – we had big moves across the board but I managed to eek out a few promising setups:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

Knocking On Heaven’s Door

For the fourth time now we are knocking on (bull) heaven’s door – a.k.a. any handle beyond 1880. So it’s definitely not for a lack of trying but no matter how you turn it there’s simply no activity looming above on our E-Mini volume profile chart. A hop higher will take some doing but I have an inkling that once she breaks loose she won’t be looking back.

This remains to be our most important road map on the equities side and you don’t need to be a seasoned chartist to figure out where participation is concentrated – until right now that is. If you want to be short then this is your best chance – right here and right now with a stop above 1880is. As you recall I’m already long since that long hammer, so let’s take a look:

Really not much going on here – we’re bumping against a daily NLBL and that’ll have to be overcome first. My position size is pretty modest here as that hammer was pretty damn long. But that also permits me some staying power as I am sure there’ll be plenty of whipsaw ahead of any potential push higher.

10-year bonds are at their own inflection point – the daily just busted above the 100-day SMA but it’s the weekly panel that has me excited. We’re bumping against a weekly NLBL plus the 25-week SMA. A push above 124’230 will put me on the bus for a ride higher (if things work in our favor that is).

More waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

That’s it for today, have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator


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