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FOMC FREAKY FUN DOLLAR DIVE
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FOMC FREAKY FUN DOLLAR DIVE

by MoleSeptember 23, 2009

Anna here

Well today we kick off another fun day of FOMC speak (NOT) so we must go through a boring action until the specials ones (NOT) give us their interest rate decision and the view of the ecomony, which is allot of BS and we all know it!  Sometimes afterward there is some huge volatility both ways, ( I have been threw a few serious roller coaster rides) so sometimes I either play or sit aside, I will know that later. But as of now the futs are up (AGAIN???) and the  dollar is slightly up after being pulverized last night AH. I could believe what I saw it went to 75.89 in 1 tick amazing!

I mentioned last night there were talking terroist attack all over CNBC, but what did the futures didn’t move, I mentioned if we really had one we may rally another 200 SPX points. :-(

The Dollar is just getting taken out to the woodshed and beat with all the fever of a MAD SADIST. I really don’t know where it may end, but my opinion is next stop is low 75 area. We hit a new low last night for the year.

With that said I have banged my head to say I was bullish on Gold and short term see 1200, now I know allot of you don’t agree, hey but that’s what makes a market. We were down earlier, but now GOLD is back up this morning. As Austin Powers says ” I LOVE GOOOOOLLLLLDDDDD” :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEtNHC9tEt8

With that said good luck today you guys and let’s rock!


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

    I am not crazy about reptiles, sorry to those who love them, I love warm cute furry sweet cuddly annamalls. :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hi Anna. :)

  • Douala

    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    Rather than beat a dead horse, here are a few short observations on Tuesday’s trading:

    • With volume sharply lower the S&P future had its narrowest range since July 3.
    • Until volume reappears, volatility will probably remain under wraps.
    That being said, a sudden decrease in volume and volatility after an extended directional move (over 6 months), usually signals a change in trend is just around the corner.
    • Bonds (TLT +0.21%) continue to attract money and T-bills are effectively paying nothing; is big money looking for a place to park funds just in case the rug is pulled out from underneath the equity market?
    • Gold (GLD +1.22%) continues its high level, tight consolidation. If GLD can clear and close above 100 for three consecutive days, the upside must be given the benefit of the doubt.
    • A falling US Dollar pushed stock index benchmarks higher (S&P +0.66%) again, as money managers were forced to chase performance. Is buying stocks just because they are moving higher the new normal for prudent investment strategy?
    • Palm (PALM +7.15%) shot higher for the second consecutive day as buyout rumors swirled, ahead of possible secondary offering (according to Briefing.com). Are traders playing a game of squeeze the shorts in stocks whose float is heavily borrowed? You would think a stock might decline into a possible secondary… We’re sure shorts banked on this outcome. Hmm…
    • Teflon Timmy Geithner reports the first seeds of recovery have been spotted. Sure hope so. Isn’t this whole rally all about hope; all style, no substance. Raise your hand if you believe the US government has ever run any business efficiently and profitably. The Post Office? Amtrak?
    • How low will this limbo dancing President go in order to influence public opinion? A sitting President has nothing better to do than go on late night comedy shows throwing out one-liners? Will Dancing with the Stars or Celebrity Apprentice be next? A large percentage of the American public thinks it’s disgraceful.
    • How long before foreign countries put a stop to the US plan to monetize debt by refusing to buy that debt? Isn’t that what the President should be spending his time working on?

    The market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent; truer words have never been uttered.

    Our time will come; keep the faith.

  • bergs

    A possibility?
    dollar http://screencast.com/t/3SNg7tXcnp2

    I have only been following the buck in price. I can't pull up the chart in Prophet(hint, hint, Timmmay) where I do my analysis.
    http://screencast.com/t/3SNg7tXcnp2
    Moving on. If the $SPX holds this pattern of which I do not see much upside.
    http://screencast.com/t/9zSEiv9mm

    Perhaps, just perhaps.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    [repost]
    hat tip to ZH
    Fast Idiots getting Bitch Slapped
    http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/play

  • gmak

    <repost>
    Pre-Market warm up
    FOMC. Premonitions of boring, wobbling markets until the intense terror of a 5 – 10 point move in ES both ways at the announcement as the race begins again. I like the lower volatility because it makes it easier to scalp FX (EUR), whereas normally the other side would eat my lunch.

    Equity
    Asia follows the USA usually – but was mixed last night. Looks like resource based economies did well (a premonition of more USD weakness perhaps). Shangahi was down almost 2%.
    Europe is all green. DAX is up 1/3% and FTSE is up about 1/2%; All eyes on FOMC. I think most positions have been squared away.

    FX
    DXY is down, but recovering – near that magical 76 mark. Looks like its time for a '300' last stand for Timmay. CAD, GBP are moderately up. JPY, EUR are down. Interesting mixed bag. I would suggest that CAD is due to the resource connection. GBP is maybe due to movement from Europe into the FTSE… <shrug>. The JPY is interesting and suggests a small move towards risk i.e equities and commodities. EUR is a puzzler but may just be profit taking, IMHO. ANy other ideas are very welcome.

    NEWS
    FOMC: advance speculation is that FED will signal economic recovery (must be something other than their noses that grow) and keep o/n near zero. Remember, the FED's entire plan hinges on reflation of asset prices to convince consumers that they are wealthy enought to recklessly spend again.

    Bond prices decline on signs of economic recovery. Fixed income traders are the 2nd smartest after the FX gang. (Equity investors ride the shortest bus of all). I don't think that they would fall for the green shoots – so it has to be a concerted effort to have all the ducks quacking 'recovery', IMHO. No conspiracy here, just looking at what the FED's need is as stated in the paragraph above.

    For the women, cocoa prices are the highest since 1989. That chocolate fix is going to get more expensive. Might have to start eating gold like in Dubhai and other places. heh.
    (Yes, it's a generalization. Yes, it doesn't apply to specific individuals.)

    Data
    Mortgage applications were up 12.8% vs down 8.6% prior. The roller coaster continues and CNBS will poke through these entrails to justify the market. But the market is no longer connected to the economy, just the umbilical chord of global liquidity infusions.

    14:15 EDT FOMC. enough about this already. There will be head fakes when the announcement is made, as always. I'll be watching from the sideline (where's the popcorn emoticon when you need it?)

    SPX
    TD range projections were correct yesterday. so that is 5 of 7? 6 of 8? anyway, it has been off only 2 times. The importance of this measure is that it helps frame the intra-day trend in a structure. You know where the finish line WON'T BE. It provides some calm within the choas of skynet moves, and so forth.

    As I wrote about at various times yesterday, the highest volume area for SPX was right where it finished the day. I believe that this was because skynet was curiously absent. Volumes were quite low, as for Monday. Also, my volume histogram was quite symmetrical – a quasi-normal distribution where the trades and volume lined up.

    Today's TD range looks to be higher than yesterday's (natch, since we closed above the range). It is narrow, roughly 1068 – 1077.50; Once the markets are open, I'll update with the projection for the day. I find the first hour helps to define the day's trend considerable – at least up to 14:00 today when NEWS and games will once again rule.

    ES
    Sideways all night and then a pump when Europe opened to get up to around 1070ish. (what else?) Now at the HOD for o/n. Pivots for today are: (and these work well when it is pure market and no skynet).
    R2: 1075.08 (this would be SPX above the TD range)
    R1: 1071.17 – acting as a roof right now and turning back ES for the first time since in this new day (starting at midnight)
    Neutral: 1065.33 – acted as a floor all night.
    S1: 1061.42 – this looked like an inflection point all yesterday – has already been tested as support, IMHO.
    S2: 1055.58

    If we somehow get below 1055.88 on teh ES, there is a TD decision point at 1053.25. A bounce here is the most likely scenario, but if penetrated decisively it would be a rocket down.

    EUR
    EUR looks like it's putting in a bullish flag that runs from 1.4770 to 1.4790; The HOD was up around 1.4842; The staff runs from around 1.4612 up to 1.4760sh. Pivots are as follows:
    ER2: 1.4910 (death for the USD)
    ER1: 1.4850 – got near this, but no cigar, on the pop around 7PM EDT last night
    Neutral: 1.4761
    ES1: 1.4701
    ES2: 1.4612

    The EUR is being well behaved and travelling back and forth between the bollinger bands at regular intervals of 12 hours. The bands are narrow right now and slightly widening, so things will be picking up based on this. lower boll = 1.4782; mid = 1.4806; upper = 1.4830 – so we are definitely in a higher range than yesterday. I would expect this to continue until something about the FED's plans is leaked.

    Cheers.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning all, expect not much till the announcment then the roller coaster ride may happen, I like to scalp around it. Got my 2 t.v.s and my guy is coming over shortly to mount. Yea!!!
    BTW I was the only one in Best Buy last night so dontbelong (as David likes to say) LOL

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Sorry about that Gmak you posted just as I did the update! Good stuff. EUR da guy! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    HI Mac!!! :)

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Oh – sorry you meant the two tv's – I blushed down here in Queens land for a brief moment. Must be that I've been getting lonely today with the lack of Southern Hemisphere activity. Note the AUD is setting up for a double top – but then of course it could be a break out on the third approach at breaching resistance and judging from recent action thats got to be the play from the book.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks as always, much appreciated

  • gmak

    By the way, the Bollingers I posted for the EUR were based on the 30 min chart. On the 3 min chart, they are at 1.4780; 1.4786; and 1.4792

  • reddragonleo

    Hi Anna, Douala, and the rest of you fellows…

    By the way Anna, a terrorist attack would surely rally the market as the Bush family, Cheney family and Bin Laden family have been friends for years. Ol'… wrong president! My bad! Let me re-phrase that… Obama has many middle eastern muslin friends and any attack that happens will be known ahead.

    No friends of theirs will be killed, only people who are honest and know secrets about them will be removed!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    oh hahahah I have such a way with words I am told….Freudian Slip??? :-)

    I am watching the AUD along side the USD as well. Could get interesting! Good to see you Kea!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    much like that floated b.s. repo rumor that the Fed themselves probably instigated yesterday, I think today's press release with the no-change decision will pay at least a little lip service to the dollar, even if ever so slightly so as not to freak everyone out.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Red, good to see you. It's so nuts and like Douala mentioned as well as others reminds me of 2007 when peeps were buying like there was no end to the rally, which we know is madness, but that being said, it can go for for allot longer than anyone thinks. Have a great day Red!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hi Anna. :)

    Since I'm going to be in Philadelphia anyway on Thursday and Friday, I booked myself into Dan Sheridan's Advanced Options Workshop there on Friday afternoon. (Hopefully this will indeed be an advanced workshop because it's 5 hours long, lol!)

    What intrigued me is that Dan worked for over 2 decades on the floor of the CBOE as a market maker for one of their specialist firms. So I'm most interested in seeing what the guy on the other side of many of my options trades over the years has been thinking and doing.

    So rats! If there are any specific optiond questions or strategies you'd like me to run past Dan while I'm up there, jot them down in a reply here and I'll do my best to get them in.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good info Twojacks thanks! :)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    …and now for the rest of the story. I'm not well-versed on candlestick patterns, but is the daily candle on the dollar looking like a key reversal, you know, if it were to close right now? anyone?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Oh wow Mac, that's awesome, i am an options queen and love the leverage they give you, and understanding them is paramount to make $ with them. Fuji is unreal with her knowledge.
    Good luck with it and let me know how you liked it. Dan Sheridan is Scott's brother, whom I know. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    That's a tough call Jack, the FED wants to keep interest rates low, so I expect a bounce, but I am not sure of a trend reversal.

  • Iguanadon

    A good read about the gov't role in mortgages and possible relation to the dollar.

    http://thehousingtimebomb.blogspot.com/2009/09/

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks Gmak! :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    thanks for david, didn't think they ever allowed anyone who is sane onto that network

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Both the aussi and the kiwi spiked up on the news that NZ GDP increased unexpectedly to .1% after it's longest recession for 30 years. Interestingly market spiked only very slightly on news as it appears the rumour was bought into last night my time. Not much happened after that during the normally busy US trade. Has been steady to falling since an initial spike post announcment. This was big news so was surprised by the tepid reaction.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    you changed again, looks like he's sort of gay.. LOL j/k

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    second you on 1053 area es
    also, I'll be eagerly awaiting 1075 break – only after that I will have the conviction to take multiple sell signals and pile into shorts all over

    few charts on my lonely site (1080-1083 spx shall not fall or else…)

  • flyboy08

    The desk was at a loss for words…LOL! Think we'll see David replace Melissa?

  • vision_invisible

    The lies continue.

    I remember when I lost my job after 10 years of intense work with an employer, and all of a sudden I found them telling me that the job description I had, didn't even exist (and so I must take a lesser paying job in another position). They worst part was the dishonesty, how they contrived a situation that made no logical sense and stuck to their guns. So did I. They burned their bridges, so I recorded every conversation and all of the inconsistent swirl of BS they had come up with. Then I hired the best lawyer and torched them.

    Well our govts' lies continue. Check out Bill Cara breaking a story about Gold swaps –
    http://caracommunity.com/content/caras-commenta

    Greenspan emphatically denied this in the year 2000.

    We are being “fed” lies. It is all constructed to manufacture opinion. Btw, short future positions on gold by central banks were 11% last year, 36% in march, and 25% as of sept 1.

    Looks to me like they may be closing out their positions.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    2Jacks,
    Posted this earlier. While anything could happen, I look at candles as important only in if a logical EW position. What the 60 tells me is that there might be a spike in the S&P, a corresponding fall in UUP, and then just maybe we have a chance to turn. The EW5 looks to short IMO now. Or it could go to the magic 1120 number everyone is spittin out in Oct.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • Iguanadon

    Damn… have to change avatars again I guess. LOL This is Artemus Gordon, the sidekick of the guy you lust after. I'm all cash now so I can't use the dwarf again til I go short.

    Dr. Loveless avatar = short
    Artemus Gordon avatar = cash
    James West avatar = long (or just to get you excited now and again)

  • Douala

    reddragonleo
    Good Morning…. looks like you have a gut feeling something bad is about to take place. Do you think it will it be here in the USA?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hi Douala!

    I discount the drop in equity volume as an indicator here – because the volume has dropped to nothing leading into the June and August meetings.

    Having said that, if the upside volume and tick action we saw mid last week really was a peak, we could be near a top now with a correction around the corner. No clue on timing of course – and things could still bust higher at the end of the month, we'll see.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahaha sorry, he does look a tad fruity to me. (a girl's eye) LOL James West is the one for me!

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    those ETFs are probably a fine trading vehicle for most people, but I'm looking at charts of the futures – /DX. thanks

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Katzo, good to see you sweetie! :) you know I have 1122 with the Fibs and Gann

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is such a pain to watch TOS tick data in AT – it is filtered to extremes, I am getting headache watching it

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Yes I do.

  • Iguanadon

    Not a lot better, but hopefully less “fruity”. 😉

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    2J
    /dx or 6e (due to multiple reason) will never be as accurate as clean currencies pairs

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    good stuff Kea. Was that was the dollar took that quick dip last night?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    It's the same fruit? :)

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Was it a skinny dip? LOL

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    getting ready to go short /nq on stop sweep – as long as it will not bring it above 1742

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Now that's fun! :)

  • vision_invisible

    I have friends in the police force who are laughing at this front page story.

    A guy with a battery, who may dislike what's going on in his home country is not a terrorist plot. There was no plot revealed – that was speculation on the part of unnamed officials. Now it is turning into a botched plot about how the FBI and police can't get along.

    Why is this story being placed out there now? Maybe it has to do with some upcoming action in the middle east and afghanistan. Gotta manufacture consent folks. Up the threat level my friends.

    If hating the Fed made you an enemy of the state, we would all be rounded up under the Patriot act and charged with plotting crap against T.Geithner or Obama-god's financial crew.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea good for you Vision!!! :)

  • Iguanadon

    The new disqus won't let you crop/frame the pictures the way you want them any more. They lead you to believe you can by moving the square around on the pic, but then it just displays the whole thing.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I know they get all distorted.. grrrrrrrrrrrrrr….

  • Styrfart

    Is it possible to start to hate the colour green? I need red and pls a Greg Luganis dive from 10 m! Have a nice day!
    annamall, have fixed a avtar! It's the family “bitch” :-) well if you ask my wife, she would say that I am! :-). Have a agood trading day, I'm staying out for the moment, will not commit anymore coin until I see a change in direction.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    true that, but the futures are still cleaner than those damned ETFs, no?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    My sentiments exactly there. And what the Fed has done so far with their MBS buy backs could be just the tip of the iceberg. When the next round of ARM adjustments hit, get ready for the next big government bailout.

    Will be interesting to see if FOMC decides to extend the MBS buyback program, graduate it off as they are doing with POMOs, or keep to the schedule. My guess: since their MBS schedule runs into December, FOMC defers this decision until the Novemeber meeting.

  • Iguanadon

    Even Jim's pic isn't as good now that I can't frame just his head… I guess you're just out of luck…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi Styrfart!! I love green as long it's in my purse, but these days those dollars are worth sh_t. :)
    You have a good day to sweetie!
    Not a bad idea especially today!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    G/L David! :)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    hate green real bad right now, that's why I changed the green bars to blue on all my charts. Once the next downtrend happens I'm changing all the red ones to green.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks for trying Iggy…. :'(

  • humble1 ™

    i haven't been hearing any more about BOB PRECHTER. last update was that he added to shorts, going to 100%, about 50 SPX handles ago. is that subject off limits now, lolol?

    where is his capitulation point? is he just going to let his subs get EATEN ALIVE by the bull market? anyone know where his stop is?

    seems like with all the hooplah-dooplah here and elsewhere that the “rats” deserve some follow-up.

    comments?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    You too, David did that! hahahah so cute. :)

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Thats right. Created a nice long shadow through existing resistance – Nice divergence in the MACD on the hourly. This has been quite reliable in the recent past with regard a sell off worth a 1c. Not playing the downside right now though as have been bitten by being a Kamikazi pilot against the trend. I'm not a day trader as I'd have to be nocturnal – I'm a Kea parrot not a Kiwi (Nocturnal flightless bird)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I reported that little bug to Disqus support over 3 weeks ago and nothing has been done.

    It's a little bug because it all worked fine in the prior version of the software. All Disqus has to do is to isolate the problem and then lift the fix right out of the old code.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I think the $ may have found it's logical bottom. I proposed 75.89 as the $ bottom about 10 days ago. This is the Sept 08 low and makes for a nice double bottom

    chart from sept 12th
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I thought so! I know it's tough even in currencies right now, you can get whipped out in a hurry.
    IE: last night. :)
    I love Parrots! :)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I let my sub run out this summer, btu I'm rooting for him to be right. He got so trashed when the rally from 2003 kept going and he kept calling for a turn, for four years. it was brutal to watch. he's a smart guy and he makes a lot of sense in what he says, but good gawd is he early sometimes, or all the time. LOL

  • wex

    Are there any species of animals that you don't like?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Update: Gold bullflag that could push it to 1037, all time high 1032

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I pointed you up for that because I want you to be right. I'm rooting for you too. cheers

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    I heard she is afraid of moles, you know, those furry little scampering animals the frequent holes in the ground. Sorry annamall, couldn't resist, cheap shot. ROTF

  • gmak

    Thanks for this. Much appreciated!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ROFL, you know I can take it! hahahah

  • dollar

    Repost from last night, from Cobra's site:
    GLD and UUP Watch, this one is interesting, whenever GLD had a black bar UUP would be up the next day. 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), this supports the view of a rebound as well, because it shows lots of positive divergences. Bullish US$ is not good for the stock market.

  • vision_invisible

    I hate playing with JPM's invisible gold (“and price supression ETF”) – GLD.

    Any other leveraged vehicles?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh is that a fact? 😉

    I want to get his reaction to a few mostly self-taught advanced strategies I use myself of late. For example: going debit straddle/synthetic straddle into FOMC statements(!), going credit straddle/synthetic straddle into earnings reports. Earnings season comes up soon, hehe.

    Anyway rats – let me know if there's anything specific options wise and I'll get the question in. :)

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Someone said Doug Kass capitulated last night. I did not confirm that though.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Mac, I bet you have a great time and really get into it, at least I hope so. Dan is quite good I have heard. :)

  • dollar

    Hey Artemus was the brains, and a master of disguise….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    allot of peeps like to play the miners as a gold play. GDX is the ETF

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    At this stage he doesn't have a capitulation point as far as he's concerned if you're in this market then you better be a growed up trader because either way you may lose access to any cash you make in a rush for the doors. He also has stated that this retracement could go all the way back to near the top of wave (i) of 1. Thats 2007.

  • Iguanadon

    As usual, the smart ones are kept in the background. Let the pretty boys get shot at.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gang, just in case someone asks me something I have my guy coming over shortly to install so I may be down around 10:30am or so..Katzo don't say it! ROFL…hehehehe

  • CorporalCarrot

    From the “if hindsight were foresight” department, this is something that bulls will look back on in three months time and say “it was so obvious, why did I ignore the warning signs in front of me”.

    The Baltic Dry Index today stands at 2,175. Its not surprising given that Chinese exports are down over 20% this year, given pictures of ghost fleets moored in the far east, given the latest data showing US railroad shipments declining at a 19.8% YOY rate.

    http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/

    It seems however to be surprising to the clowns who trumpet green shoots.

    Its only a matter of time.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    MOOOooooo.

    LOL

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    There you go again – painting pretty pictures!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    MOOOOOooooooooooo! hahaha I figured you would dissect that one :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahahah I said Freudian slips???

  • wex

    Is this the story about the guys who took terrorist training with Al Queeda? If so,
    I'm inclined to think of them as threats to our society.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Yes Freud was bigger than Hugh

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Full disclosure I am long DIG, RIMM, a handful of spy 106 calls

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    From what I read he had schematics of how to put together bombs on his laptop. Can we believe the media and law enforcement though.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hehehehe :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Volume on equities should be going to zero by 10:30-11AM ahead of the Fed, maybe not a bad time to be offline.

    Not a good time if you are into petroleum, as the EIA's report comes out then. The industry's own API report yesterday gave a preview, but the last few weeks the API has been too bearish.

    To USO or not to USO ahead of the Fed, that is the question…

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    right, and I don't necessarily want to be a currency trader though I feel like I am one lately with that super-tight inverse relationship of the dollar and the stock market.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    oh sheesh your right, he will just have to wait till 10;40 then…he is already running late which is fine with me. Cause he likes to talk allot to me.

  • Styrfart

    LoL, I tried to fool myself by turning the screen upside down! :-)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    you already said something earlier about a guy coming over to mount. I'm trying real hard to picture televisions and not something else. LOL

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    I'm serious. When the next downtrend happens I want to be able to say, “don't know what's troubling you bulls, I see nothing but green on my screen.”

    After all, we've had a perpetual count of approximately 43-23 green/red candles on my three month chart for at least the last two months. Disgusting.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Well, I think Annamall's statement is sexist. How does she know it is a guy??

  • Styrfart

    well, a buck is still a buck! it's worse for us in europe that dosn't have the euro! :-)

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    You have to stop right there. Seriously, if it's a girl my imagination is going to get the better of me this morning. I mean it. stop.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    LOL

    Two girls, moUnting two big screen TVs, consider the possibilities. ROTF

  • Douala

    TheMacroEconomist…. Good Morning… I believe Mr Cara's comment on volume was made with respects to the volume seen during the early part of this rally that started in March. The latter part of this rally really has been on low volume. Also the increase in volume that one normally sees in Sept after traders return from vacation really hasn't materialized yet. I didn't take his comment was in reference to the Fed meeting at all.

  • Douala

    gmak

    I must also say thank you for your morning summary. Very helpful. A lot of us look for it each day.

  • Turbodrive

    Hello Styris,
    Now I'm on this site too (Astral) 😉

    I said hello to the gang here this morning, but then I think most guys here were asleep, so once more, hello from another crazy swede who also need the same drop as Styrfart to release my hungry Bears 😉

  • Turbodrive

    Hello Styris,
    Now I'm on this site too (Astral) 😉

    I said hello to the gang here this morning, but then I think most guys here were asleep, so once more, hello from another crazy swede who also need the same drop as Styrfart to release my hungry Bears 😉

  • nummy

    anna, just curious as to why you use $DXY and not /DX … they are slightly off and when u said $DXY dipped below 76 i freaked out because the level i'm watching on /DX is 76 (which has yet to be breached)

  • Styrfart

    LOL – this comment made my afternoon! :-) Hope it's ok for me to use on a swedish community if/when…. bears fly again!

  • Styrfart

    LOL – this comment made my afternoon! :-) Hope it's ok for me to use on a swedish community if/when…. bears fly again!

  • dollar

    They can't knock the dollar down too low because we need the purchasing power to buy the crap from China so China will save the world from recession…or something…meanwhile: The Chinese government has extended the maturity of bonds used to bail out one of the country’s largest banks in an accounting move that will further delay a final reckoning for the banking crisis that hit China a decade ago.

    China Construction Bank, now the world’s second-largest bank by market capitalisation, said on Tuesday the Ministry of Finance had issued an order for Rmb247bn ($36bn) worth of 10-year bonds held on the bank’s balance sheet to be rolled over for another 10 years.

    EDITOR’S CHOICE
    Lex: Chinese homecomings – Sep-04Muted market debut for CCB – Oct-27CCB raises $8bn in Hong Kong offering – Oct-20ICBC set to invite banks to advise $10bn IPO – Oct-19CCB and Principal Financial close to deal – Aug-04Temasek agrees to buy $1.4bn stake in CCB – Jun-28The announcement is a timely reminder of the unstable foundations of China’s new-found banking success and comes at a time when concerns are being raised over a whole new crop of bad loans emerging from a government-led lending binge this year.

    Cinda and the three other state-owned “bad banks” used to bail out the country’s financial system a decade ago have mostly managed to pay interest on the bonds they swapped for bad loans but have openly admitted for years they will never be able to repay the face value.

    Under orders from Beijing to jump-start the economy with easy credit, Chinese banks in the first half of the year extended triple the amount of new loans issued in the same period last year.

    That has led analysts and regulators to warn that lending standards have slipped and that asset quality at the banks is likely to deteriorate again.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Anna take a peak at this graph. I know TK pointed out the inverse H&S on DIGG, but the BDI is VERY weak and just broke down below its wave A high. Look at the correlation between BDI and WTIC. BDI is typically a leading indicator

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    China seems to be in wave iii of 1 of 5 of C. I believe the chinese are really going to up the pressure on the US to strengthen the $

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    That would require a rate increase. I guess we will see if America still owns the Fed later today…

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    “Hello my name is Anna and I'm a Bull”

  • Offtimer

    If the garbage smells throw it out of your portfolio.

  • gmak

    The China currency is linked to the USD. Doesn't matter how low the USD goes.

  • Styrfart

    Tjena Astral! two swed's and a one norseman in the lair!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    saw the charts, saw your comments. Do you realy think the’ll just let it correct to 900?

  • gmak

    EUR:
    TD pressure indicator has a qualified price exhaustion target below at 1.4764; Looks like we will hit it. Probably bounce from there.

  • gmak

    SPX:
    I have a pivot (resistance) at 1072.95 and a pivot (support) at 1068.81

  • humble1 ™

    how about: “my name is anna and i have a brain”?

  • gmak

    SPX TD range projection
    High: 1077.31
    Tolerance High: 1073.60
    Tolerance Low: 1071.77
    Low: 1068.16

    The close is expected to be within the Low – High range. If the LOD goes below the Low, then the close will be below the Low as well, because the current high is below the tolerance high.

  • humble1 ™

    kea:

    could you (or anyone) please share a djia and spx print for his “(i) of 1” OR just a date in 2007 when they printed?

    it sounds like he may be risking quite a lot.

    TIA!

  • Turbodrive

    Who's the norseman?

  • Joe8888

    SPY DAILY Knocking on Gap Window,,,,

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Once again, the US Treasury is selling a record $40 billion in 5-year debt, with bids due at 1PM Eastern time.

    Would you be comfy buying any of that ahead of the FOMC Statement? 😉

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Watching COST, nice gap down at opening now being filled. I am short this stock.

  • AudioTactics

    I'm short SPY at 107.41 this morning and long USD from yesterday.

    As I have been saying for the past few days, I'm expecting some change in the Fed statement to include some mention of an exit strategy (even if it's just a hint). The Fed has launched some smoke signals to this effect already with 2 Fed governors mentioning the eventual need to remove stimulus and the long-term reverse-repo story.

    The Fed is also under significant pressure from foreign central banks to lay off the gas pedal.

    Regarding equities, I think the headlines will soon be “No More Buyers”. From a risk-reward perspective this is the wrong time to be putting money into stocks and other risky assets such as corporate bonds.

  • buyemsellem2000

    Risk-Aversion and Sanity Have Taken a Leave of Absence: If you can't beat 'em, might as well join 'em.~I'll see you .. From RealMoneySilver
    about 11 hours ago from twitterfeed

    http://twitter.com/dougkass

  • innatedc

    We'll probably stay right here for the entire frickin morning til announcement…..not staying around to watch that…..

  • Osso

    watching Qs 43.03……..43.23……will jump on TYP at those levels.

  • bshah

    what happened to AAPL… ? any news or just short squeeze…

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    A recent look at who is actually buying this market revealed that it's primarily daytraders, people covering short positions and Fed money. Since it appears institutions have stopped buying for their end of quarter nonsense, that means the market must rely on the Fed and short squeezes to keep propping this move up. I see the market as highly vulnerable until the next POMO day which is Sept 29th, I believe. However, the short squeezes could continue for awhile. The small body bars each day are very bearish. People talking about hitting 1100 and 1200 should consider that the market might pull back before then. (? lol)

  • Turbodrive

    If the chinese market continues its slow drop maybe this guy is right.
    http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24098/

  • Osso

    XOM holding yesterdays low

  • buyemsellem2000

    DGP 2x long gold
    DZZ 2x short gold

  • Styrfart

    I think his nic is peder, followed by some numbers

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    A lot of support in equities at this level (1070.0)……if it falls through here….next stop 1066

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey guys I am back! :)

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Mounting over?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Alpha….what is $BDI ? Just want to look into a little more myself..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    my little NAVR is having a nice day

  • upld2

    annabull, that is not bull as in BS but as in BULLISH, just to clarify! Why are you so bullish? Is it because you believe in the decline of the dollar, or are you buying green shoots from CNBC?

    I really wanna know.

  • Turbodrive

    Aha, it was so easy?
    All I needed was to join this site and start to comment and the the market would drop!
    Nice, I like this :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am a bear at heart just trade the tape I have :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ROTFLMAO hahahaha

  • crush1618
  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Whoa I just looked @ my RIMM look At the price action wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • bergs

    final push to complete subminuette wave for in progress.

    http://screencast.com/t/bNLGxlFdel4U

  • dollar

    August Mass layoffs: 2,690 layoff events (at least 50 workers) that affected 259K workers. That's up 533 layoff actions from July and up 803 from the prior year.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Another green shoot so? :)

  • Keirsten

    G'morning all! I'm busy trading some breakout stocks this morning and will be back at around noon time. G/L to you all today!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good stuff Mac!

  • Osso

    Baltic Dry Index

  • AS2009

    Anna – closed my vertical spread for a loss of commission – and just after that it spiked to where my commision would have been covered too – just my luck !!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Thanks Alpha, good chart, it looks like it could roll over, keeping a close eye on it thanks :-)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I told you patience AS :( sorry about that.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    All it takes is a group of entrepreneurial billionaires or hedge fund managers to break the short buck trade. When short interest is this high, market cornerers lurk. Beware. It's the oldest game in the book.

  • upld2

    Congrats. What about your DIG though?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks, I am watching that one carefully, it may break down, but not out just yet. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Morning Joe, good stuff 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Heyyyy K!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah i added some spy calls and some fas for the final push

  • upld2

    SPY just doesn't want to go up to fill that gap. hmmmmmm

    I find it strange that the ES is forever hovering around 1066, as in “66”.

  • Road_Kill

    GM all. Looking like a bear flag on the ES with a measured move that would take it to S1 at 1061. Hope it doesn't break the wrong way.

  • Keirsten

    Hey you! Jumped on RIMM this morning pre-breakout. I'll be crazy with some trades this morning, but will be back in a bit.

  • Iguanadon

    Will simply be a boring day until 2:15:01pm

  • AS2009

    Hey – its a learning experience … going to place it as a paper trade … to see how it plays out …. and who knows maybe I get a better price on it :)

    Was getting nervous about the dojis … (which seem to have played out) …. and also did not want too many open positions before the Fed :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good girl! :) I am glad I went bullish on that one so far! it broke it's 85 resistance so take off :)

  • Joe8888

    Morning All..

    repost;

    Bullish Percent Index,,,, at All Time Highs,,, This is very Bearish !

  • anotherone

    From Gov. Palin's speech in Hong Kong:

    Mrs. Palin blamed the U.S. Federal Reserve's low interest-rate policy of previous years for setting the stage for last year's global financial crisis. She opposed appointing the Fed as the chief overseer of systemic risk in the U.S. financial system. “The words 'fox' and 'henhouse' come to mind. The Fed's decisions have created the bubble,” she said.

    She called for tax cuts as well as the elimination of the capital gains and estate tax. Then, she said, the world will “watch the U.S. economy roar back to life.”

    Full write up at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125368057547633

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    exactly! I took profits on it yesterday (grrrrrrrrrrr) LOL but I have so many RIMM contracts going, I wanted to manage my risk level 😉

  • Joe8888

    Good Morning Anna

  • gmak

    Yep. Scalped on the way down. Scalped off the bounce up to the middle bollinger.

    Tick tock. Tick tock. Living inside a broken clock.

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    I loved that early morining “drop”. It was so cute and tiny.

  • Road_Kill

    I knew once I posted this it was going to pop the other way!

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    This is what I am watching, a bit hesitant to recommend shorting it tho right at this point {it just spiked up a bit, putting in the EW4?}. A few retail broker recommendations provided this back drop and perhaps it is eventually headed towards two gap fills. The 60 and DAY charts look good to me also.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/

  • AudioTactics

    I just covered my short SPY position (sold 107.41, bought 107.05)…

    Just looked like the market is still not ready to break down (I didn't like the fact that we couldn't break yesterdays vwap in a significant way).

    And given the FOMC meeting today, I don't think there will be much momentum either way before the announcement so not sure if it's worth holding a short line until then.

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    Lucifer works in mysterious ways.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Looks like EUR is about to turn up on the 5 minute stochs, I am long 1 lot

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    they did it again. sell down to 10am, then ramp. this has been running the same every day for the last three weeks now

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    So glad you are amonst us Katzo!! :)

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Thnx sweetie, have to go to work soon.

  • Road_Kill

    I'm not sure who's to blame them for doing it or us for continuing fall for it. I guess if it ain't brke don't fix it.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Don't like the risk / reward on USO going into this report. Was thinking to do a short straddle maybe but then you'd be selling volatility and really going into FOMC you'd want to be buying.

    Alternately a straight buy of USO may get a bounce here but I'd have to babysit the position all day thanks to the Fed…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  • gmak

    EUR: We're getting hung up on the mid bollinger and are starting to stretch the elastic a bit on the TD pressure in overbought. Given anna's stock indicator, I would suggest that that elastic will stretch a bit, maybe even up to the 1.4791 area (bollinger) – but I'm not sure because I see the SELL setup running out of steam (and I don't understand the underlying for the stoch sufficiently to comment on how it would fit in here).

    I'm flat on EUR and waiting for the sell setup to complete, which it will in 3 min.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I am just doing some Fib RL on the 5 min. so where so you think we may end up Gmak. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Tiny Tim ” There is little doubt US in in recovery” (yea right tiny tim) :)

  • gmak

    I don't know where we'll end up. I have that DXY at the back of my mind and how it needs to defend 76. I'm just playing the 3 min EUR TD indicators and bollinger for swing trades. heh. another one coming in now…..

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    I looked at stochs on UUP 5 min. also and they were bottomed too when you said EUR was also bottomed? How can that be?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    that was a headfake, darn it!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    see below Katzo

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    UUP just starting up IMO. Careful.

  • gmak

    Looking for a bounce now on the pivot piont at 1.4761 – if the Bollinger lets go. Otherwise, like viscous spit, it will sling shot back up soon.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    10 nq points so far on 2 trades – lunch time http://express.paltalk.com/index.html?gid=11928

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just added a few more SPY 106 calls for scalp

  • Osso

    COMP 2155 stil resistance…..

  • Osso

    USO….watch 35.49…for support

  • dollar

    Yeah isn't it nice :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dumped Dig, just didn't like the price action…:)

  • Keirsten

    We had a hint that change is in the air on that correlation yesterday- it'll be interesting to see what happens today with that. Nice to see you over here, K. 😉 Back to work for me….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Uh oh, distillate inventories rose 3 million barrels, gasoline rose 5.4 million barrels, and crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels.

    Not only was yesterday's API report on the “right” side for once, it actually understated the situation.

  • Keirsten

    Good move, it lost support already.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks K, I only in 1 lot and watching the BB's. I got a headfake on the 5.min a few ago, ah well. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yep, no stubborn girl here. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no more trades for me today untill SPX breaks 1075

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gmak I see 1.4756 as retracement on EUR, do you have same?

  • Road_Kill

    Just need to break that dang pivot on ES.

  • Road_Kill

    YESSSS!!!!

  • Osso

    XOM needs hold 69…..

  • Road_Kill

    1061 here I come.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Just added 34 Nov Puts on Dig

  • dollar

    Just in time for mortgage resets?: Life insurers are calling on state regulators for looser standards on residential mortgage investments as they face higher capital requirements: a fivefold jump to $11B in the first half, according to the American Council of Life Insurers.

  • bboplive

    so much for a boring day …

  • Joe8888

    Wow, we are falling a little , While the Prez,,, is in the middle of his speech,,,,Hmm

  • Keirsten

    Heh! Good morning, Dollar. 😉

  • TheMacroEconomist

    35.35 and still going down. If I did the slightly bullish short straddle at 37 at 10:20, I'd be down 10% on that trade already and counting.

    I think selling pressure subsides soon tho.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hi bboplive!

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Very intrigued with what is happening with UUP stochs/MACD on the 60. Just watching, no action.

  • Keirsten

    106.70 is S1

  • Joe8888

    todays high was Gap Window….107.33,, i knew that was going to be resistance,, but a little surprised ,,on the fall here,,

    But Equinox hit over night,,,,still thought we would be flat to up , going into the Fed 2pm..

  • Keirsten

    Look at that candle on XOM! Ouch. LOL

  • Tronacate

    Maybe they pull the dollar off the market sacrificial altar.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    No disrespect, but I wish Obama would shut UP

  • dollar

    Morning Keirsten!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    There was not one good figure in the EIA report. 😛

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Mac was it bearish (I assume) ? please

  • dollar

    Please, especially cuz he never says anything

  • Keirsten

    You mean they told the truth? Fancy that! 😀 The last time I looked, rig count was slightly up, then retreated again shortly thereafter. I haven't checked it lately.

  • gmak

    Don't sweat the EUR. We're getting near a re-trace up.

    ON ES, we are near the pivot S1. But I have a wave that completes at 1063ish (wave 1 of 5 down or Wave C up).

    ON SPX, I think we will see a trade with a pullback to the VWAP at 1071ish, but there is a pivot in the way at 1068.81

    I've gotten out of my EUROs (10% gain on risk account with the swing trading) and am now long ES, along with Geronimo and the VWAP play.

  • vision_invisible

    bought dug calls nov :)

  • Anonymous

    Bloomberg.com-

  • Osso

    KK: the HUI/Gld ratio saying Gold going down….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    good choice I am the same puts on DIG :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Another casualty of the oil report. USD to see some life now I think – at least until FOMC time.

  • Osso

    XOM bot 69.22……sloss 68.96

  • Keirsten

    They've got to sell that auction this afternoon on top of everything….

  • Keirsten

    Thanks, Osso. 😉

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks Gmak…:)

  • fa_q

    Got my fill of 1/2 short at 1070. Exiting here at 1063 for 7 points. Will reload at same levels

  • gmak

    You've been winning on too many trades. :-) Your comments seemed to indicate a bit of stress. Tell the monitor installer to stop talking to you. (Sometimes you have to go through the fire to be able to play in the woods). <zen>

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    You have a knack for hitting those reversal points.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Actually picked up a few more spy 106's (calls for a daytrade) on lows

  • rhae

    I have no idea what will happen today, so just swinging off the SPY 60m trendlines… this little bust good for a start but not perfect cuz it needs the next bar to confirm….
    http://screencast.com/t/odfylQ8MTknp

  • bboplive

    Why is everyone bearish on oil? I thought DIG was where it's at ….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'll bet the auction goes ok. FOMC is not expected to do anything dramatic.

    (Run for the hills of they do, cos everyone will be caught unawares!)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ahhhhh Biff you're so sweet and good morning by the way! :)

  • Osso

    watch 4.21 support…..HUI/GLD.

  • gmak

    Reserves were greater than expected. i.e. consumption is falling off. Supply /demand – plus the free money used to speculate in oil may be ending or reaching its limit at the margin.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ROFL…I need he is talking up a storm!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    should be expected this time of the year

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    15 min SPX wave iv should be finished now a push up

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    sweet timing alpha!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone else get the feeling that the MM's and Banks just want to hold this market up for a few more days until year end, so they can close the bonus pools??

    I think this is going to be a bloody October.

  • AudioTactics

    That is what I was thinking too but it goes against my core belief…

    Keep your eye on oil today, if it continues to bounce then you're in the right trade!

  • Wake2Wake

    looks to dip to 1066 prior to FOMC

  • Keirsten

    Now there's an avatar I can love!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Still in long eur thanks Gmak!!

  • Douala

    Where do you find the info each Wednesday for the oil report, “TME” ?

  • Road_Kill

    ES might try to fill that gap up from yesterday at 1060.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    depends if you beleive anyone will want to be holding anything into October……..surely you'd want to start dumping stock before then…..you don't want to be left holding the ball….

  • Wake2Wake

    ha…me…before my 5th cup of java

  • Keirsten

    That's me AFTER five cups of java.. or 3 cans of Jolt! 😛

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I LOVE THAT!

  • rhae

    Don't hold your breath…. you have confidence in FOMC? lol

  • Keirsten

    107.04 now resistance on SPY at the pivot

  • http://twitter.com/timvroom timvroom

    I'm new at this…. Are yall going to stick with gernomino trades if they are open during the fed announcement?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Audio good morning geeesh Should have just stayed out of DIG altogether (kicking myself in butt) LOL

  • Road_Kill

    THere is a very nice bear flag on the NQ that would take it to S1 at 1725. Just backtested the pivot and failed.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Depends, on the price action. Tim Nice to see you!

  • Bart7

    bergs, alpha- wave iv does look to have hit your targets, but seems bergs has it on a 5 minute and alpha on a 15 minute S&P? Of to 1080ish form there?

  • Keirsten

    Took profits on RIMM scalp.. watching. Support was 86.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    gang I will be down for a few while my guy does his hooking up…:((((

  • Iguanadon

    Lucky guy…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well, if I knew I was getting $50m of a bonus based on closing values at 30th Sept, I probably wouldn't care if WWIII started after that :)

  • Iguanadon

    But then again maybe not… you don't seem too thrilled with the sad faces….

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    good morning, what is he hooking up…?

  • Road_Kill

    Ehem.

  • Road_Kill

    Just needs to get the male connector into the female connector for the receiver.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    back already!

  • Bart7

    good point from Todd at Minyanville:
    Is there anyone who doesn't expect an accommodative FOMC and a ramp into quarter-end?

  • Iguanadon

    No wonder the sad faces… A new world record for a quickie.

  • AudioTactics

    Good morning Anna… yeah looks like oil will be weak for a spell.

    I think it's a good signal for potential weakness in equities too.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    aren't bonuses based on performance for the whole year (in the main)?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I just told Eric that someone would say that! hehehehe

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Well my Dig puts now are hoping for that :)

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Not that you can see them….I suppose must be some wires ya

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    hahaha!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    My new monitors LOL (so far :)))

  • http://www.sundayonanism.com biffermas

    Good morning to you as well. 😉

  • Bart7

    geez, the innuendo is flying today, and you can probably do one more with that term….

  • Road_Kill

    Paint drying…grass growing…must…stay…awake.

  • flyboy08

    Maybe the third time is a charm?

    Would someone be gracious enough to answer some question I have pertaining to Geronimo? No rush, but I am considering using it.

    If so, please email me at:

    phoward@aeroconsulting.com

    TIA,

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :)

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    SPY is pushed right to the bottom of the channel….wise to be careful with longs

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks sweetie! :)

  • Road_Kill

    S1 S1 here we come!

  • rhae

    JPM down today, probaby not so good for gold short term… they are a major axe on gold

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    thanks Rhae, I am out of GLD, but will reenter on pullback. :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    sent you an email Fly

  • flyboy08

    Your the best! Thanks.

  • gmak

    SPX TD range projection update:

    High: 1077.31
    Tolerance High: 1073.60
    Tolerance Low: 1068.16
    Low: 1068.16

    Because the LOD is below the tolerance and the Low, the SPX close is expected to be below the Low of 1068.16 – this is the type of projection where we have had the 2 errors, I believe, where the movement is one-sided initially. I wouldn't trade off of this, but bear it in mind.

    Meanwhile Volume histograms have a double-peak shape, which usually means we end on one side or the other, not in the middle. There is resistance at SPX = 1069.50 – 1069.99 based on the very low volumes there. The “market favoured range” is 1070-1070.49 at this time – but it moves during the day as more volume and trades come into play.

  • rhae

    COW etf only one doing much for Bulls. But I do not think just one cow can make a bunch of bulls happy….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Gmak Just jumped back into EUR long @ 1.4768

  • Vardoger

    I'm not a Geronimo subscriber so forgive me if I'm out of line but imvho, the risk of a 5-6 point knee jerk that quickly reverses would steer me away. To the best of my knowledge Geronimo is a scalping system and the FED reaction is not the time to scalp. Best of luck.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Yea just thinking that too Var…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    :) you too!

  • Scrillhog

    I tell myself I won't trade on FOMC days but have trouble just sitting and watching…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Hey Scrilllhog 😉 I know

  • bergs

    $SPX updated, subminuette wave five in progress.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    /gf and /le doing well today bouncing off a bottom. could be short-lived but a bounce is a bounce

  • Osso

    seems the Qs have some unfinished business to the upside…so they may driver the SPX up…some….imo

  • Iguanadon

    I got out yesterday and have to keep slapping the mouse out of my hand to stop from placing an order today.

  • Osso

    XOM…..moving sloss to b/e….

  • gmak

    At SPX VWAP. bounce down or plow through? Watch the EURO……. It's thinking – but I see no resistance from going up, if we can bounce off of the mid bollinger again instead of falling through.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Would you expect this wave 5 to be truncated given what we've seen from the 1st 4 ?

  • Osso

    KK: HUI/GLD ratio support update: 4.06……then: 3.919.

  • gmak

    Could this anemic volume be due to the end of Flash Trading? I really want to know. Also, current 5 min bar on SPX is showing a qualified price exhaustion target of 1066.75 – meaning we could be headed down if it doesn't resolve. AH, but it is fixing itself as I type. At 11.40AM when the current bar closes, if it is below 1069.78 – then I believe the price exhaustion target is on the table and likely.
    I'll update.

    That VWAP on SPX is acting as stubborn resistance. C'mon Anna. push that EURO up so that I can get out of my scalp.. lol

  • bergs

    Quite possible, when we finish black five of subminuette five would be the place to start watching for that senario. If we were to violate black wave one then that would be the clue something is up err, down.

  • Road_Kill

    Oh man EUR died!

  • trabuco

    I have a few questions myself…going out now but I will email you later…thanks!

  • gmak

    Looks like that SPX target is qualified. I'll post if it gets taken off. SPX is headed to 1066.78 if you're scalping.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    ok Trabuco anytime! :)

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    whoa that was one LONG red candle! shesssh

  • Road_Kill

    Did someone important say something important to cause these moves?

  • Keirsten

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    I don't know but it has not done a thing to the tape in equities. ???

  • trabuco
  • Douala

    Offtimer

    Thanks! Bloomberg is where I have been getting it. But it seems like TheMacroEconomist has access to it way before Bloomberg puts it up on their web page. That's why I asked him.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    :-)

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Sorry to reply back so late Douala, but no… I don’t have any info on something bad happening. However, if I were the Fed, and I knew that P3 will be starting after the 1100 spx top… then I’d plan something bad to happen exactly when wave 3 inside P3 is expected to start.

    This first wave should take us down to 900 or so. Then back up late this year when the holiday season is upon us. There will be light volume, so the market can be controlled. Once that wave 2 retracement is done, then wave 3 should start early next year.

    That would be a great time to release more of the swine flu virus to the public. Then trick people into giving them vaccines that actually contain excess swine flu virus. More people get sick and a panic is created. The blame is shifted from Obama, Timmy, and Bernie to the swine flu.

    It happened in the great flu epidemic in the early 1900’s. I believe it was 1913. The majority of the people who got sick were the one’s taking the vaccines. The people who didn’t take the shot… didn’t get sick. I wonder why?

  • humble1 ™

    kea:

    okay: thank you.

    could you or someone please post a djia and spx print for his (i) of 1?

    tia.

  • humble1 ™

    kea:

    okay: thank you.

    could you or someone please post a djia and spx print for his (i) of 1?

    tia.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I’d hate to use the word “critical juncture”, but today was really important, I’ve been waitng this for a while now.
    I think we will know soon enough about 900 or anything else, I need to see how it will act around “locked” price of prior down wave’s C highs. (d-wave that is)

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net katzo7

    Love ya KK.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    :-)

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    humble1 I live in Queensland so I sleep during US trade. Prechters comment was “The Dow could retrace 90% of wave 1 circle and still qualify as wave 2 circle” Wave 1 beginning at the 2007 top.

  • katzo7

    Love ya KK.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    I realy have to study dwaves, your calls are very goood and work even in tampered medium. I’m more of a “pattern” type.

    That’s why I liked your 900’s, it fit’s with an expanding triangle (upward on both lines) finishing C on a 1100’s

    If it goes for the bigger expanding triangle (going to 800’s) it’s a fast forward to 1200 and beyond

    just hope they don’t break the drop (they did it at least twice with a strong signature, back in end of march and in june)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if you trade during the day – stop by at my place (paltalk) – we trade exclusively on d-wave

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Anonymous

    my pleasure