Yesterday I touched on the increasing intra-day volatility we have been seeing lately, particularly in equities. Momentum and breadth indicators are still pointing upward, however a few early warning lights have started glowing and thus we should take note. But that only tells part of the story, what I find most disconcerting right now are very pronounced divergences between our three major equity indices.
Limbo tape – it’s what I call the annoying volatile sideways churn devoid of technical context we’ve been experiencing across the board since the beginning of June which has pushed retail into an early summer identity crisis. You may recall that it’s not the first time I’m talking about limbo tape and it probably won’t be the last. Now this may be a good time to once more remind everyone that we as retail traders have one principal advantage over fund managers or institutional participants such as trade desks or system operators.
It’s relatively quiet morning thus far which gives us time for another exercise in tape reading. This time we are going to take a more in depth look at equities and cover a few tell tale signs that tell us if and when the market has transitioned into another distinct phase. Let’s start with the Zero:
This post was inspired by a Quantopian lecture I greatly enjoyed this weekend and which once again confirmed to me that even the most basic tools and measures taught in the vast majority of educational trading material merely give us a momentary snapshot of the whole underlying picture. To take any statistical or technical parameter at bare face value is akin to judging an entire movie by a single frame or a composition by a single note. So let’s put those 3D glasses on and learn how to dig a little deeper, shall we?