An Impending Trend Shift?

With the exception of equities we have been seeing a pronounced shift in market behavior across the futures as well as in Forex. Once again it drives home the point that one’s approach has to constantly be gauged and if necessary modified in response to shifting market phases. Or in other words - none of your trading strategies/approaches work all the time – the trick is to apply the proper market strategy to each discrete market phase.

2014-11-19_gold_pnf

Gold for instance has been stuck in a pretty uneventful sideways churn for most of the year. Hunting for an trend trades on the precious metals side would have been a total waste of time which is why we barely touched it all year. Just look at the P&F chart above – note that the part covering 2014 is a quarter of the size of that of 2013. Reason being – P&F charts do not track time – they only focus on price, which is why I appreciate them. If there’s no movement then no boxes are added to the chart.

That may however soon change. Gold just painted a low pole reversal warning and that means the bears are officially on notice. And as coincidence would have it we do have a promising setup on the roster today:

2014-11-19_gold_setup

We have a nice hammer formation there on the daily panel – right underneath the 25-day SMA. I would take a breach of today’s highs with a stop below yesterday’s lows (today’s a bit low for my taste). Pretty simple setup but be aware that it’ll most likely try to shake you off. When it comes to precious metals every campaign has to be earned.

2014-11-19_FXE_pnf

The EUR has been among the trending charts this quarter – but until August it had barely painted any boxes on our P&F chart. Then Draghi announced a whole new battalion of printing presses in response to lackluster GDP growth in the EU and the rest is history. I have been enjoying the sell off quite a bit as you can imagine but the downside ride may be over soon as we are but a bagel throw away from producing a low pole reversal as well.

Are We Due For A Trend Shift?

Now if both the EUR and gold turn then it may also mean that equities are due for a much needed correction. Seasonally however that would be an incredibly inopportune time for the bears. Not that the Santa Rally is chiseled in stone but it’s rare to see any significant corrections this late in the season. Not to second guess what may happen next (which is usually out of touch with reality at any rate) I have decided to simply keep my trailing stops where they are and let the chips fall where they may.

That’s all I have for today folks – nothing exciting to report on the setup front. And quite frankly – given the recent gyrations across board I am a bit cautious and when my Spidey sense tingles it’s usually good medicine to remain extra selective when picking entries. See you guys tomorrow.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Fade The Noise – Play The Game

I’m just loving life today. The weather in VLC was sunny and warm and I just came back from literally ripping up my gym. Once back at the lair I checked back into the matrix and found my account glowing bright green – again. It’s becoming a filthy habit and I should watch my six as this game should not be that easy. But in the end, if you fade the noise it all just comes down to this, right?

But let’s recap for a moment, starting with our daily campaign which we, if memory serves me right, embarked on in the early morning of October 20th. T’was a good day as it was a brief opportunity to catch a ride on the ensuing rip tide.

2014-11-18_sppos_fase_the_noise

Early morning entries – my favorites in the past few weeks – I got filled near 1872.25 and I’m now counting 12R. My apologies for misreporting this earlier – I thought I was up to 13 but it’s ‘only’ 12. What I enjoyed the most in the past few days was all the chatter about non-confirmation and how a week of sideways tape and non-confirmation across indexes surely meant that we were about to correct massively. Yes, maybe – and maybe not – nobody really had a clue and people were literally pulling fancy charts out of their asses.

Today’s reward belongs to the few remaining strong hands who didn’t flinch and relied on their trailing stops to do the heavy lifting for them (take a hint). I told you guys that I’m going to ride this trend all the friggin’ way and I was not kidding. Let’s see how far we can stretch this Armstrong… If you must know - my new stop is now been advanced to the recent spike low near 2028.

Moral Of The Story:

donthatetheplayer

 

But it gets worse…

2014-11-18_NQ_update

NQ futures – one of the setups I posted in our early morning briefing. Of course nobody took it (cough cough – again – cough) but I always said that it’s lonely at the top (and the bottom). PICTURE PERFECT entry this morning and I should be charging for this stuff – oh wait – I am… My stop WAS at break/even but since it’s busted higher I have moved it to the recent spike low near 4328.

2014-11-18_EURCHF_setup

I only have one new setup today and it’s a super extralishious experimental one on the EUR/CHF. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel here and since I’ve got risk capital to spend I’m taking 1/2R here with a stop at 1.999. Most likely they’ll run it but heck – I have been Lucky Luke lately. Not much else to do – either she bounces with a vengeance or the Swiss may have to start yodeling about a re-peg again.

Where Have You All Been?

If I may ask – inquiring minds would like to know why the majority of you rats have been completely missing out on the past few weeks of market action. It was hopping here while we corrected downward but it seems a good number of you guys seem to suffer from a chronic bout of directional bias. Hey, it’s all the same to me – but it would be a bit more fun if some of you were trading along. Just saying… plus I do post here for a reason ;-)

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-11-18_NQ_briefing

Equities still gyrating within their range, however the NQ is looking a bit more gung-ho and I’m grabbing 1/2R right here with a stop below 4203.

2014-11-18_crude_briefing

Crude just breached it’s 100-hour SMA and is back for the obligatory retest – NLSL right underneath – I love these types of setups. Long here with a stop below the 25-hour.


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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    1. The Slow Walk-Down
    2. It Keeps Going And Going And….
    3. The Bots Are Back!
    4. An Impending Trend Shift?
    5. Fade The Noise – Play The Game
    6. Tuesday Morning Briefing
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    8. Volatility Tales
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    10. Thursday Morning Briefing



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