Strap On Your Helmets

Fasten your seat belts and strap on your trading helmets – it’s going to be a rough day! I was chatting with Scott this morning and his take on the whole Ruble/Fed/Crude situation was “Anything and everything can happen today.” Exactly right but that makes for shabby blog posts, so let me try to shed at least a little light on what we’re heading into:


I’m actually considering to get myself one of those predator helmets – super bad ass. Would look pretty silly on the little moto I’ve been using here in Valencia. Perhaps better to get a Ducati first. No worries – very safe bike as Mrs. Evil would never let me ride it – she has seen the stunts I pull in traffic.


Okay, this is the laundry list of event risk we’re up against today, starting at 8:30am with the CPI numbers for November. I don’t think it’s going to matter as much as the Fed interest rate decision. Don’t expect much movement on the equities side until Yellen’s announcement.


So far we’ve seen nothing but lower highs and lower lows, with two attempts to overcome the 100-hour SMA. The game has been played however and today’s resolution will come after 2:30pm – brutal and inflicting as much damage as possible.

Frankly speaking – as tantalizing as the situation may be here, it’s a very tough trade unless you are on the inside. It’s a coin flip and it’s fine to take out a lottery ticket unless you risk more than 1R. Options are impossible here given where we already are on the VIX front – so screw the vega play (unless you’re selling but let’s not go there). I’m going to stay out of this one – sorry – cyclone level conditions like these are beyond my pay grade.


EUR/USD is the only setup I like this morning but given what’s going on I’m only in it for 1/3R – AND I’m hoping to be stopped out as the rising Euro is a big thorn in this expat’s eye. ISL actually below 1.242 – I changed my mind after realizing the flood of events we’re facing today. So it’s really just a teeny weeny play and chances are it’s going to get shaken out.

Bottom Line: Plenty of excitement in the works today but very little entry opportunities. I’m keeping a bucket of popcorn ready and see how it resolves. Forget about support levels on the equities side – if 1955 goes for whatever reason today then we’re dropping to 1900 like a rock. Similarly, if rates are being kept lower than anticipated then we should see a massive jump. Word on the street says that Yellen is not going to mess with the state’s department’s plan to declaw Putin once and for all. But I’m not going to bet money on macro economics/politics, leaving that for people smarter (and more connected) than me.

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When There’s Blood In The Streets

You surely have come across the old aphorism coined by the Baron Rothschield, an 18th century British nobleman and member of the ultra secretive and original one-percenter Rothschild banking family: When there’s blood in the streets – buy property.


However that does not mean you should blindly step underneath a falling sword. Either you know something nobody else knows (which is illegal but clearly was the modus operandi of 19th and 20th century tycoons), OR at minimum you need to see some technical context that justify jumping into some lottery tickets. Given the level of fear across various verticals today I set out to take advantage of the situation. And I did find three charts that tickled my fancy. One of which I’ll throw out for free:


You probably guessed it – crude. Not much context here on the daily but we are dangerously close to the 50 mark and that’s where we also find the lower 100-month Bollinger. Will we see 48, 45, or even lower? I really don’t know but wipe outs like these are usually where I start looking for some short term context. I do like the hourly panel (very left) and have taken out an experimental 1/2R with a stop below today’s lows. Heck if I’m wrong we’ll be pumping gasoline for free by the end of the year!

FYI – in that context: Here in Spain gasoline prices have barely moved despite a drop of crude from 104 to 54 in a bit over a month. I can’t say that I understand all the dynamics of crude production and refineries but I do know when I’m being gipped.

Anyway, two more lottery tickets below the fold:

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Play these setups with only 2R combined max - if you want to be conservative reduce your exposure to 1R total. We are talking lottery tickets here people!


Monthly Support

I posted a long term E-Mini chart in the comment section this morning after I realized that we had tested a monthly Net-Line Sell Level during today’s lows (on ESH5). That’s a pretty serious inflection point and as there’s very little other context it’s where I believe it’s worthwhile considering a few long positions:


As you can see we breached a monthly NLSl only once in October, followed by what clearly was the reversal of the year. But as you can see there is an increasing amount of interaction with support and whether it’s this time or in a few months from now – we will see a big sell off sometime in 2015. The past two years have been nothing but manna from heaven for the bulls but we are slowly running out of buyers up here. HOWEVER, that said – all that stuff is happening at a glacier pace and LT tops take a lot more time then you think.


Look at the hourly – I know – quite a jump from the monthly but it’s the best context right now: Apparently a second test of the 100-hour SMA has failed quite miserably and things are now again hanging in the balance. Nobody really wants to be long or short here. However given the monthly context and the fact that we are again trading below ES 1990 means I’m going to start accumulating a small amount of long positions down here with a stop below today’s lows.


Let me however be clear that this is an experimental position. The P&F on the SPX is pointing at 1970 and we only have dropped to SPX 1976.

By the way, if ESH5 1955 gives again then we are most likely visiting ES 1900 or below, P&F target be damned. The bulls are well advised to hold this monthly support level. Alright, I’m going to look for more entries – give me about 30 minutes.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


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    1. Better Not Fighting This…
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    5. When There’s Blood In The Streets
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