Riding This Beast Into The Sunset

Forget about equities – everyone and their mother is trying to sort out this gyrating stop sweeping mess. And yes, they are about to get interesting (see below), but I expect our chart of the month to be gold and not the spoos or the NQ.

2015-01-20_gold_update

Fortunately some of us rats managed to secure a seat on the bus just before it took off. I have to run the numbers as I scaled into a bit over an R between 2012 and 2018. Which gets me to roughly 10R at this point and I’m just getting warmed up. The weekly shows us approaching the 100-week SMA – our first major hurdle. However I’m going to keep my stop below 1272 for now in expectation of an obligatory shake out attempt.

riding_into_the_sunset

The long term implications of this campaign are very promising and with a bit of finesse it’s possible that we’ll ride this sucker into the sunset. Which means somewhere around 1500 – you heard it here first.

2015-01-20_spoos_update

Okay on to equities – which as I said are about to get extremely interesting. We currently are what I believe are the late stages of a limbo period (see my 2012 excerpt on market weather). However we are most likely facing long term implications here – this is not just another leg lower or higher. I repeatedly have pointed out the increase in intra-day volatility expressed here by long wicks and overlapping candles. Very very tough tape to get a read and even tougher to get a good entry. Which is exactly why most traders miss the early stages of a downside correction.

2015-01-20_spoos_GBPJPY

But let’s not count our chicken before they are hatched. Most likely it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The GBP/JPY correlation is pointing upward right now and I think short term it’s quite possible we’re going to stop out the current NQ short campaign (courtesy of Thor).

2015-01-20_UVOL_DVOL

However there is conflicting evidence and in order to interpret the big picture we need to put it all into context. Now our UVOL/DVOL ratio today remains pretty negative despite the current push higher – could be indicative of slow accumulation especially as the Zero is donning a very flat signal (meaning little participation and quite a lot of monkey business).

A LOT more below the fold – not a post to miss – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Bonus chart:

2015-01-20_CrazyIvan

CrazyIvan now at 77R – new all time highs since 1/1/2014. Who would have thunk? And it started to really get cracking when volatility was on the increase starting November/December. Seems like CrazyIvan is loving the IV and I hope to see more of this. Message to everyone who left during the summer: Watch the Nick Rage video again. This is a long term game, folks and instead of going with the program I watch you picking up pennies in front of bulldozers. Enough said.

Cheers,

Let’s Dive Right In

So, are we finally done yet? Through how many more holidays will the Mole have to suffer? And there’s another one coming on February 16th – it just never ends! You think I may be kidding but I’m actually halfway serious. Look, I enjoy some time off as much as the next steel rat but as soon as there’s a holiday the entire trading week before and after is pretty much shot. Enough is enough – time to bank some coin.

2015-01-20_spoos_briefing

Alright equities – it seems like the bears are going to fumble this one again. The spoos are looking good here and today’s session should decide whether this is one last bull trap or if the bulls are getting blown out of the water. See that hourly NLBL – I’m catching it with a long and my stop is below 2013. Got to hedge my NQ short position which (thank the trading gods) has its stop at b/e by now.

2015-01-20_crude_briefing

Crude – long here with a stop below 47.5. IF we finally get a pop above 50 this thing will grow some legs. Until then we’ll have to suffer through the sideways churn.

Two more goodies below the fold – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,

Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2015-01-16_spoos_briefing

It’s rather quiet this morning with equities still gyrating around yesterday’s lows. I think we’re probably going to see a little bounce here today or on Monday as it’s been a long time since we’ve seen more than five consecutive lower lows in equities. Of course a breach below 1960 would trigger a ton of stops and if it happens all bets are off.

Charlie_Lucy

However as of right now the onus remains on the bears to finally take this thing lower. Several times they’ve come very close to inflict some serious damage in the past few years, but in the end wound up being short squeezed into oblivion every single time. And all that’s needed right now are two or three sideways days near this inflection point and buying interest will most likely represent itself. That said – even if we see another squeeze higher things have fundamentally changed. On several occasions now I made a point about the increase in intra-day volatility – clearly this is not a healthy market and a meaningful correction is way overdue.

However – long term tops take their merry time to form and usually resolve beyond the trading horizon of (bearish retail) market participants. A good indication of this phenomenon is the recent lack of participation I’ve observed in the comment section. You guys should be all over this quite frankly, but I’m afraid many may have irreparably damaged their accounts shorting the various rallies of the past few years; or more recently may have attempted to pick a low over in crude or the Euro. It is the eternal purgatory of the retail trader to think contrarian when it’s so much simpler to simply follow the tape. But thing are changing and right now the tape is telling me that 2015 is probably going to be a rough year for equity holders.

2015-01-16_NG_briefing

On the short term front natgas is looking pretty interesting – it spiked higher and then reversed back to its 100-hour SMA. I’m long here 1/4 R with a stop below 3. You may remember that I was long near 2.8 a few days ago and got stopped out by just a few ticks (my stop was below 2.7). Which means I missed out on a juicy rally and that’s been tough to watch. But that’s what happens and you can’t get those things get to you.

Fortunately gold has been more than making up for it and silver is following suite now – please meet me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,




    Zero Indicator


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