Monthly Support

I posted a long term E-Mini chart in the comment section this morning after I realized that we had tested a monthly Net-Line Sell Level during today’s lows (on ESH5). That’s a pretty serious inflection point and as there’s very little other context it’s where I believe it’s worthwhile considering a few long positions:

2014-12-16_spoos_update_LT

As you can see we breached a monthly NLSl only once in October, followed by what clearly was the reversal of the year. But as you can see there is an increasing amount of interaction with support and whether it’s this time or in a few months from now – we will see a big sell off sometime in 2015. The past two years have been nothing but manna from heaven for the bulls but we are slowly running out of buyers up here. HOWEVER, that said – all that stuff is happening at a glacier pace and LT tops take a lot more time then you think.

2014-12-16_spoos_update

Look at the hourly – I know – quite a jump from the monthly but it’s the best context right now: Apparently a second test of the 100-hour SMA has failed quite miserably and things are now again hanging in the balance. Nobody really wants to be long or short here. However given the monthly context and the fact that we are again trading below ES 1990 means I’m going to start accumulating a small amount of long positions down here with a stop below today’s lows.

2014-12-16_SPX_pnf

Let me however be clear that this is an experimental position. The P&F on the SPX is pointing at 1970 and we only have dropped to SPX 1976.

By the way, if ESH5 1955 gives again then we are most likely visiting ES 1900 or below, P&F target be damned. The bulls are well advised to hold this monthly support level. Alright, I’m going to look for more entries – give me about 30 minutes.

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Thrashed

I’m actually referring to myself although I could say the same about equities or crude this morning. That harmless little cold I was fighting over the weekend has somehow turned into some nasty super bug. Let’s just say that it wasn’t a fun night – I feel like I got hit by freight train.

2014-12-16_spoos_briefing

But enough about Mole’s trials and tribulations. Thor actually grabbed a short on the E-Mini two days ago – so far so good. As you can see the 25-hour SMA is now offering solid resistance and as long as we are painting lower highs and lower lows I would be very cautious about looking for a floor. The 100-day SMA is above us now and this could easily turn into a massive wipe out.

2014-12-16_EURUSD

There is a lot of fear in the market right now but I don’t see any good entry opportunities. It’s tempting to participate when things go volatile but I still need context to justify an entry. Equities and especially crude are in free fall right now – until a floor presents itself it’s best to let existing positions run but refrain from being lured into spurious entries. The Forex side is all over the place and most currencies are extremely volatile featuring long candles and fast retracements. This is not the type of tape you accumulate in – it’s when you let your existing positions run.

Catch you guys later.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

Under The Weather

So I was starting to feel better on Saturday when I made the mistake to head to the gym and hit it hard. I started to feel super exhausted on Sunday morning and woke up today with a cold. As you can imagine I’m pretty miffed about myself – it was supposed to rain Sunday and Monday (and it did), which is why tested my luck and went to the gym in the first place. Did I ever mention I absolutely loath winter?

2014-12-15_spoos_briefing

It’s funny how the bears are always pining for massive corrections which they most of the time are unable to participate in. It’s not just that large scale corrections only happen perhaps 5% of the time – it’s also that they are extremely difficult to ride out. Just look at the gyrations on our hourly chart. Up – down – up – down. Almost every retracement is recovered and stops are run in both directions. This is usually how it goes except for the big (third wave – cough cough) wipe out somewhere in the middle.

Right now the spoos are at the 25-hour which only represents soft resistance. However if you are looking for a good place to be short then this is probably as good as it’ll get. If equities continue higher from here then we are looking at a much more complex formation and who knows how the rest of December is going to flow. The second hurdle is obviously the 100-hour at around 2025. So these are the two inflection points right now: 2010 and if that goes 2025.

2014-12-15_DX_briefing

The Dollar is looking weak this morning and I grabbed a tiny short position here with a stop at 88.9. The reason why I’m risking it is because of what I’m seeing on the Euro:


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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Post Fed Musings
    2. Strap On Your Helmets
    3. When There’s Blood In The Streets
    4. Monthly Support
    5. Thrashed
    6. Under The Weather
    7. Not A Game For Adrenaline Junkies
    8. I’m Buying
    9. Forex Wednesday Morning Briefing
    10. Tough Tape



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