Like it or not, we are heading straight into the Christmas season and soon it’ll time polish our silverware. Which incidentally has lost quite a bit of its luster over the past few years and it’ll take a lot more than toothpaste and elbow grease to regain its former glory. Over the last year a valiant attempt to turn a long term down trend came to a halt near the upper 25-month Bollinger early last summer after which silver reversed over 50% of what it had gained in the first half of the year.
However I believe it’s time to start paying attention again for two reasons: First the weekly Bollingers are increasingly tightening and secondly silver is now [...]
If you are a trend trader then past two weeks will most likely turn out to be your most productive ones of the year. As the old adage goes: The trend is your friend until it ends. Of course you cannot help but wonder if the end is in sight, after all we’ve come a long way since early November. So let’s talk about that and add a bit more context which I believe may be of value if you’re still holding long (or are anxiously waiting for an opportunity to go short).
Earlier today I decided to exit a long campaign on gold which I only had initiated late last week, and which on the surface looked like a perfectly good reversal candidate. As you know I rarely interfere with open campaigns and I’d like to share my reasons.Technically speaking we are sitting on prospective long term support levels, so what gives?
If you have been visiting regularly then you probably recall some of my earlier posts on realized volatility . For the rest of you here’s a quick recap as it’s important to understand what realized volatility (RV) is and how it compares to implied volatility (IV). Simply RV measures the amount and amplitude of price change observed in a financial instrument over time. Big moves to the up side and down side will both produce spikes in RV. As such the volatility we measure or predict always produces an unsigned return – it does not care whether the market goes up or down.