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Treading Water Tuesday
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Treading Water Tuesday

by MoleOctober 13, 2009

Anna here again gang.

Well INTC beat by gangbusters, and right now the NQ futs are up by almost 16 points!!! I said (as well as Mole/Berk) that OPX week normally is very bullish. We were forming a right shoulder on the Inverse H&S. Expect higher highs tomorrow. 1090 is what I look for next.  The bear is sad for now.

Well maybe my new Halloween costume will bring us some luck!  Yes this is a bear costume :-)

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: +2.5 (1 winning trade)


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AS2009

    Love your costume Anna … though my positions are bullish right now ….:)

  • onorio

    NQ is flying high indeed, SPX should follow tomorrow…after all my 1080 call overnight is still on the table.

    I hate this bull suit…..

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I love them too, not sure which one I am buying for Halloween :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    yes, it will probably continue till OPX is over.

  • Tronacate

    What position do you like to take in your little outfit?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    CSX…We move a ton of freight with no gas because there isn't shit to move.

    Can't see how that's a green shoot.

  • PRSGuitars
  • Me_XMan

    Look for CNBC to hold Dow 10K party and passing out Dow10K hats.

  • Tronacate

    Read my mind…..

  • Tronacate

    Our whole economy is based on texting now.

  • AS2009

    Come one guys … this is a turn off … leave some things to imagination 😉

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    thats when the top probably is in :)

  • z12run

    Don't know if there's much likelihood of it happening, but if JPM reports something bad tomorrow before the open tomorrow, is the Intel euphoria all for naught?

  • Nightwind

    Anna, I think 1090 is about right

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    same here. 😉

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    There was some real bullish action in there end of day, which leads me to believe they will beat

  • vardoger

    INTC P/E is now 43. Let's see what the economic data holds for tomorrow and rest of week. The banks and dollar are huge as well. Not saying anything except the lack of US sales in INTC is bearish at all, rather this is only one piece of the puzzle.

  • z12run

    I'm guessing you're probably right. The Meredith Whitney downgrade of GS was a bit intriguing, because I think that was the only big financial company she had been recommending. I seem to recall seeing a clip two or three weeks ago where she was still positive on them, so I'm just wondering what changed her mind.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    It hit her price target, so she put a hold on them, but not a sell

  • z12run

    I have to admit that I've never imagined anything like that!

  • Eva S

    I preferred the bull costume. :-)

  • Tronacate

    Guitar players get like this…..sorry :)……grrrrrrrrrr

  • PRSGuitars

    Sorry, i thought the whole omg-sex-on-the-trading-blog thing was so played out, it was decent because of the bears … uh … making cubs. After all the stupidity earlier this summer with 'flirting' with the ladies, it's more of a joke than creepy (or so I hope). But point taken.

    Ironically, nobody caught this, the Chicago Cubs announced bankruptcy. Sign the top is in? The Bears haven't announced yet (thank god) but the young bears are bankrupt… weak hands capitulating? (market metaphor/joke… sorrt, O/T)

  • PRSGuitars

    /es resistance — short 1 NQ from 1741.50, waiting to add possibly — /es short here? We'll see… would require guts…

    it's a retest, though!

    http://screencast.com/t/cGZQuOkjBRtG
    http://screencast.com/t/qAQj8xnfni

  • TheCrowe

    Why does a top ever need to be put in? why not just keep on keepin' on? Between 2003-07 the SPY just rocked each year. That could happen again, could it not? Or is it that EWT dictates that we are in P2 soon to be followed by P3 and a top must be put in? I'm beginning to wonder if this will ever end :(

  • vardoger

    CNBC guy finally figured INTC earnings out– China appears to be on fire based on Asia sales accounting for 59% of revenues…

  • AS2009

    Good for you … now let's keep this a trading blog … with a little bit of fun mixed in … not go overboard :)

  • dollar

    Delinquencies among U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities surged to by a record amount in September, according to Moody's Investors Service, highlighing the ongoing woes on the commercial real-estate market.
    September's delinquency rate of 3.64% compares with 0.54% a year earlier.
    The hotel industry posted the largest increase in September, rising to 4.97% from 4.18% in August. Multifamily delinquency rates continued to go up, climbing to 6.09% from 5.51%, the highest of any property type. The delinquency rate for loans on retail properties rose one-third of a point to 3.76%.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Oh that's the ongoing saga of Sam Zell buying the Tribune's crumbling newspaper empire at the very time when the sector was a screaming sell. Now he's trying to bail out his position with bankruptcy protection and tax moves to boot.

    Fortune covered the tax moves in this piece: http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/21/news/companies/

    Being involved with 2 S-Corp's this hit my funny bone, but really Tribune Co. not a laughing matter…

  • AS2009

    Look at SPY – taking out all the highs …. big day tomm – get some rest !!

  • henrymart81

    Profited from my shorts today. If this lunacy continues I will be taking the biggest short position of my life after hours.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    You mean youre not gonna wait till tomorrow?

  • AS2009

    Anna – will you be looking at buying puts on INTC in the am – how did you decide to do that ?

  • AS2009

    Apology accepted … as long as you don't do it again :)

  • Brian_mk

    take his guitar away if he does it again… that'll teach him!

  • vardoger

    Check this chart out if you haven't seen it already: http://slopeofhope.com/2009/10/beware-of-intc.html

  • Norw_chris

    The reason 2003-07 happened is because american public financed those earnings via debt. They do not have the means for a repeat, so earnings will come up short eventually.

  • PRSGuitars
  • TheMacroEconomist

    No bad words on the INTC conf call yet.

  • z12run

    I should have stopped by ZH before posting, I see TD has Meredith's complete report on the downgrade to neutral:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meredith-whitn

  • AS2009

    Good one – thanks for sharing … don't go to too many sites … not enough time :)

  • AS2009

    Wishing the best for you !!!

  • charles_smith

    I am bear but I am delighted by the INTC blastoff as that will speed the arrival of the top. Who knows exactly what that will be be 10300 DJI and Anna's 1121 SPX look like good points to start looking. As Anna pointed out, the air above could get filled too, and the sooner the better IMO. Let's hit 1200 by Friday and get it over with.

  • Scrillhog

    Hi folks… Been posting this chart for what seems like weeks now… Look how we were so poised to gap over that yellow fan line overnight. INTC is just the perfect catalyst. Now IMO the fan line will be support as it has acted for the last two, and once we get closer to the triangle edges (green lines) there will probably be plenty of fakeouts. Look at that wick! IMO pretty obvious.

    Close:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    Big Picture:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    Still long.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hey AS don't like INTC too slow for me … :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I have been saying the same, just get it over with Charles and then we can MOOOOOO on top of the bulls
    😀

  • fa_q

    I got a 1/4 fill at 1080 – wasn't expecting it, quite a spike. I'm now fully short at 1069.50 and 1729.50. There may be a couple days of pain but I won't be in the country so ignorance is bliss.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    You'll be ok, I feel soon we will turn…the higher the better the sweeter the fall :)

    Be good have fun :)

  • fa_q

    Be good have fun? Those are rather contradictory….. :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    😀 your'e right be very bad and have fun!!! LOL

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Good luck fa_q, and enjoy.

    My SPX put spread is up to the interesting area where it takes on the YTD highs and the ES gap from a year ago around 1100. Now I need to play this top right on the leg out to reverse down, assuming this is going to be the top area, we'll see…

  • byhiselo

    SPY just hit the downtrend line from the Oct. 2007 and May 2008 highs in after hours, should be some kind of resistance right here right now

    just need JPM to cough and puke it up and bears have hope…for half a day or so

  • TheMacroEconomist

    The most interesting take-away from Intel's conf call was that the consumer sector “buzz” was all over netbooks powered by the Atom. The words “Microsoft” and “Windows 7” didn't even come up until 25 minutes into the call. How times change.

    Speaking of Microsoft it looks like they released a whopping 13 Security Bulletins today, which should keep me tied up overtime tonight and probably tomorrow too. Happy trading! :)

  • blues

    Really? that line seems to be somewhere near 110 no? How you get 108.5 out of it?

  • blues

    Ya delinquencies, delinquencies, it doesn't mean anything unless bank are showing the real numbers and willing to take the lost and book it properly… market seems not giving any sh** about it until we have BAC/C/JPM one of those fail… which in the current environment, near zero… unless uncle sam declares BK…

  • Bankster

    This AH ramp up was crazy. Do you have cover orders set around 1020 while you are away? Have lots of fun and be safe traveling in another country! Gains from this trade will way offset the weak US currency exchange rate in a foreign country :))

  • T_dub

    Don't you love it when both bulls and bears screw over Jim Cramer ? :-)….
    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/10/1

    This fool apparently wants *more* of “buy, buy, buy”. Fellow rats, whenever the big wave down starts, you'll have no shortage of suckers to sell to. If this post doesn't win “a like” or three… I'll be shocked :-)…

  • byhiselo

    guess it depends how you draw the line but mine was at appx. 108.51, but not going to quibble over 15 points in this timeframe

    if it wants 110, so be it…also have the uptrend line connecting the 1991 and 2002 lows right around here

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hey Z12run always glad to have you here 😉

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I have this week or at the very least next week as when I believe we see some serious selling. Jim Cramer is so gay,.(nothing against gay people) he is so phoney is what i am saying..
    you get a point from me T-dub

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hey Mac, bye Mac LOL

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Something curious on the money flows on such a slow day today….
    -2.8B in the DJ Total Stock Market Index, very high money flows for a single day. Usually its around 3-500M

  • lilme

    How do you find these? WSJ 'selling on strength' and calculate with Excel?

    After hours, the earnings charts on INTC and CSX behaved strangely, they went up and then came down and settled quickly at a certain level, rather than rebounding to a new high as they often do.

  • LuvvinIt

    Where do you get this — do you have a link v8?

  • brendl

    agreed. complacency is starting to set in and once the 'good news' earnings is discounted what other drugs are there to take? everyone is looking at 1021-25. its almost too obvious for it to happen.

  • T_dub

    Yep, sure do, Anna. Cramer's stupidity stirs up all kinds of emotions, as it should :-)..

    But, you know what, this time I was bashing the writer 'Nick Kapur', who is actually complaining that Cramer shouldn't have made the “sell” call.. and goes on to argue that “investors” should've all bought and held through P1. My feeling is, Nick will be happy to buy and hold thru P3 as well. Sure, Cramer is a crook.. but these guys are suckers. There are some big names who are too… like that Ken Fisher guy. I can't believe such incompetence is rewarded….

    All those guys who are disappointed to miss out on P2 are gonna buy on dips of P3.

    Ps: Thanks for the likes, ppl… I'm touched… :-)

  • T_dub

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mf

    INTC -68.86 Mil… # 1 in selling on strength. A gap up + punctured IV will be a fantastic short.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle
  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    see above, its on the “Market & Sector” portion of the WSJ money flows

  • http://www.anomalousmaterial.com CastorTroy

    Looks like we will have a gap up tomorrow morning, especially if JPM cooperates at 7AM ET
    http://tinyurl.com/yjb9ofp

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Bear costume looks very hot Anna

  • dollar

    I think you meant to say Jim Cramer is so “ghey”.

    1. ghey 2222 up, 429 down
    Usurping the traditional term GAY to take the homosexual meaning out and leaving in the lame.
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Is there something wrong with polio victims?

  • http://onetrendytrader.blogspot.com/ OneTrendyTrader

    The market was very tentative today leading up to the INTC earnings announcement. The blow out earnings report we heard from INTC may ring true for other large cap tech stocks deriving a great deal of revenue abroad. Major cost cutting at home and a weak dollar are driving major upside to current and future results. Expect the same from IBM on Thursday. My forecast from last Friday (and reiterated this week) of reaching 2200 on the NASDAQ by this Friday looks dead on.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Maybe you should be a cowgirl… Ride them bulls baby! LOL!

  • Osso

    JNJ is one case that although falls in the categorization you make…did not preform as you post.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    Please note that as of tomorrow or in the coming days, ALL dominant cycle waves will be pointing down. I'm not sure if new highs will hold or if we march higher, but there are certainly some down currents to be concerned about if you are overly bullish. This is the first time since March this has occurred.

    http://markettimingcycles.files.wordpress.com/2

  • Osso

    what do the lines represent…if you may….

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    I believe they are astrological, maybe the shorter term cycle is lunar and the rest are planetary. I pulled this off a cycle website, but the cycles themselves have been fairly accurate in predicting downdrafts when multiple lines are pointing down.

  • http://onetrendytrader.blogspot.com/ OneTrendyTrader

    I dont classify them as a large cap technology company such as IBM, INTC, CSCO, etc.

  • Joe8888

    Market Commentary:

    The stock market traded apprehensively today as we head into the thick of the earning season.

    They call it healthy skepticism, i.e., the market climbs a wall of worry. Let’s be honest here. What is happening is Wall Street is going to spin the usual better than expected estimates—but what I am afraid we are going to see is the usual drop in both profits and revenues, as consumer demand is just not there.

    You can call it skepticism but where are the profits, where are the revenues—or does it even matter anymore?

    After the market closed today, Intel (INTC) reported that both profits and revenues fell 8%, but you guessed it … they “easily beat the street”.

    Third-quarter net income dropped to $1.86 billion, or 33 cents a share.

    Is it heresy to ask why are revenues still falling this far into the “recovery”?

    One year ago today, INTC was priced at $16.29 and revenues were at $10.2 billion. Now one year later, revenues are $9.4 billion, almost a billion less and yet the stock is up 25%.

    Granted this is looking backwards, not forward. So why should PC demand increase if the dollar keeps falling and oil prices keep rising? Won’t that start to erode the budgets of companies looking to upgrade their technology?

    There is a reason why Intel’s revenues have fallen $1 billion over the last year and soaring energy costs have been a contributing factor in causing the recession of 2007-2008.

    The reality today is that oil prices rose 88 cents to close at $74.15 a barrel. All the spin about future PC demand becomes mute if oil prices begin to hit $80, $90 and higher.

    This is another tax that cuts into the economy. Even US tax revenues are still falling, which is probably the best economic report of the way things really are.

  • Joe8888

    UUP Daily Chart,,Positive Divergence.We need to break out of this Wedge.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    It looks like that 1100 target from the 60-min head and shoulders is in the cards. However, maybe this will be an exhaustion gap and it will fade over the next couple of days. I'll be watching tomorrow's low closely http://bit.ly/3UBP1A

  • fa_q

    No, I don't. We're renting a house on the beach in Mexico and I'm told there is internet access. I plan to monitor it now and then but I honestly don't expect to close any positions out while I'm gone. I said my call may be a week early and it looks like that part may be right. Oh well, it's not a loss until you close out the positions…

  • moneyfarm

    Nice chart. I'm long UUP Nov 23/24 call spread. I must say though that divergences (both positive and negative) in the momentum indicators have not been very reliable since March.

  • moneyfarm

    Well I hope somebody bought STAR a week ago when I suggested it as a long, because I sure as hell didn't
    http://screencast.com/t/s9kGIaDwS

  • humble1 ™

    if this UPGAP holds, it rather dramatically clears up the polarity of several important Time Cycles. 10/13/09 is/was a very important date, as was noted in my work and the work of others (including the Astro community).

    polarity is always a much bigger challenge than the cycles themselves. so: 10/13/09 as a LOW, and as a powerful LOW, makes life a lot easier.

    for now and the immediate future, there is a Time Gap ™ between 10/13 and the 10/18 new moon. price action for the next three days and perhaps on the 10/19 open might clear up Price, too.

    your comments and cycle thoughts are welcomed.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Good chart Joe8888, I guess when these things stretch longer than can be believed, is what should be expected….The nice thing about triangles and wedges though…they have a limited time in order to do something!

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Perfect, the world is now clarified :-)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    This just in, and too precious to ignore. The chief at CITI is named “Peek”, and he thinks this is a good time to get out. I wonder where his stock options will be priced. I bet he exercises them all immediately.

    I don't have experience of “hundreds or thousands” of Fib Fan charts, but I like the idea, since combining price and time seems important. Look at XLF.

    This rally must be near the end, since I had the honest realization that perhaps this tanker (economy) had been turned around and that way more upside is possible.

    And just in case you hadn't noticed….America's government has been taken over by Bankers. This is not a good thing.

    Check out the BKX charts, I really like the way these turn out. 0% to 5% more upside. This Charade is near a top.

    Irony upon Irony, being Bearish is not Good for your health. The Chicago Cubs are Bankrupt, and that is another opportunity for charlatans to steal from the American Taxpayer.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/21/news/companies/

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/cit-ceo

  • tradejane

    Steveo,

    about your question:

    >If the market tanks what do you think the best leading indicator will be?

    It isn't on the list but my vote would be for I. as in IYR. :)

  • traderx22

    Excellent article on trading styles…
    http://safeharborinvestments.com/index.php/our-

  • PRSGuitars

    IYR: http://screencast.com/t/beIXdTFWVk9l

    133.3% remaining (but we'll pop tomorrow most likely, be careful — see how it plays in the AM)

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Does anyone here that trades GBPUSD have a count of the price action we've seen in the last 2 days……is this a correction or a full blown rally in Sterling ? I know the USD index has been falling……….

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I posted my take on IYR on blog, it looks tasty. And check out PRS Guitars charts, he is doing good stuff.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/iyr-can

    Look like a Fib swat down, a bear flag on a bear flag on a broken wedge….lions and tigers and BEARS oh my….

  • tradejane

    PRSGuitars:

    Thank you. I won't be rushing into anything but I'm VERY intrigued by this weakness in Real Estate in face of such general bullishness. Can lightning strike twice on the same spot? It may well become our black swan again. (Along with CIT, another good candidate.)

  • darely

    INTC: But you're looking at this strictly from a domestic perspective. As the US dollar falls, part of that decrease results in cheaper CPU prices for foreign currencies and the remainder results in higher price when denominated in US dollars which further inflates the revenue numbers.

    The problem is that everyone is looking at the big names as proxies for the economy. Most of these companies get the majority of their sales outside of the US. The recession has allowed them to make significant cutbacks resulting in better margins and a falling the US dollar will eventually start inflating their top line.

    We will probably see a ~10% correction starting sometime in the second half of the earnings season with a larger drop coming in terms of a dollar valuation perspective rather than the dollar amount of US stocks (again, see above reason).

    Since the fed has essentially swallowed up the fallout of the credit bubble burst, I'm not sure we will see any apocalyptic-type drop any time soon. They can do basically the same for commercial real estate. All of this resulting in a continued fall in the dollar and we may get a sub-600 on the S&P, but only on a dollar adjusted level.

    I'm as bearish as anyone else, but the above scenario concerns me.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    So the 133 was busted for a while? Spooky.

  • standard_and_poor

    Currently 60% long mostly small caps, expecting to be 70-85% long by open as
    a new high in spx above 1081 looks certain.
    Some recent Sonic Youth:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B_NVayA_VI

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I wish I had time to chart some charts and check their structure using real money (gold) as their price basis.

  • tradejane

    I know that most indicators are pointing up and I'm positioned for that, but I still can't shake the feeling that a turn in the market is close.

    The best plan I could come up with was start a really small position in SRS, since Real Estate appears to be the weakest link, if it goes above $10 without making a new low I'll add. If it makes a new low I'm out at the next bounce…

  • tradejane

    Croozer,

    I don't trade FOREX but I keep an eye on it, so I have an observation on that.

    GBP has been closely tracking the Euro for quite a while now. It seems like their aim is 1:1. We're only like, what, 7 cents away from that now?

    It sort of makes sense to me that GBP would closely track the Euro against the $ too.

    HTH

  • jaxon

    anna-upon closer scrutiny i think you are correct with your target on SPX of 1120-give or take a bit. how did you arrive at this figure?

  • PRSGuitars

    The 133 busted on NQs over the weekend, $DJT busted 133.3 of 133 yesterday. IYR holding somewhat cause it's such a POS but we'll take tomorrow morning as a likely bust.

    Charts coming in a few if my contacts don't fall out of my eyes…

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Thanks TJ, I see the tending towards 1 to 1 on the charts too……my real question is, was the move down we saw of the GBP USD at the end of last week and early yesterday a sign of where it's headed in the immdiate term or was it a fake out……..Are we now going to see a sharp weakening of the USD against sterling. The USD index is showing that there is more downside to come but the dynamic against Sterling is unclear. much of the move in the USD index is due to shifts against the JPY.

  • ultrabear

    50% fib is 1123

  • kokoro33

    hey h1,

    both cowan cycles I’m tracking are looking good, L-H-H, hits on both cycles = Saturday

    Friday will be 401 td’s since the 3/17/08 low, 1% err = 4 days, so ES is already there with the NH yesterday.
    The second cycle needs a NH on Thurs

    mission accomplished as far as I’m concerned, it’s part of the reason we’ve been trading the median lines to NH’s

    fascinating stuff

    good trading

    lowbrow

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    TradeJane…….Actually looking at the EURUSD chart, it does appear that the Euro could also go to Parity with the Dollar…….We're in the corrective phase at the moment and a reversal down could come soon……

  • tradejane

    Oh my, yes, now I see what you mean.

    I think if it zooms above 160 that might have been a headfake – if it fails to do that then 153.72 seems like a likely target.

  • jacksoo

    what i'm not hearing yet is euro countries complaining that the cheap US$ is hurting the competitiveness of their businesses and putting more their workers on the street. i guess i'm missing something here.

  • Tronacate

    At what level does dollar destruction become a negative for equities?

  • humble1 ™

    33:

    let me know if 11/16 starts showing up and what you think of it.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    all cycle folks:

    note that 10/13 was an exact hit on the root/phi (1.272) backcounter of the two key dates, 1/6/09 and 3/7/09 (the midpoint of 11/4 and 7/8) …

    3/7 -> 10/13 – 220 cds

    220 cds X 1.272 = 280

    10/13 – 280 cds = 1/6

    … and the exquisite astro with jupiter -> direct plus venus c. saturn!

  • tradejane

    Now that you mention it, the Euro seems to have some serious resistance at 149.50 area.

  • ultrabear

    To answer that question you need a long term count. All I can say right now is that the action from the high three months ago is starting to look worryingly corrective to these eyes.

    Gonna spend some time on this today and see if I can tease the riddle.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Good morning from (not so) sunny Ireland folks!!!

    Looking at INTC last night, I wasn't feeling too bad about trimming my short positions the other day.

    However, it is interesting to me that despite the late surges in futures after the Intel numbers, all the European indices, while doing very well, are not printing new highs. I fully expected to turn on my reuters screen this morning and see the FTSE, DAX etc in new territory, but they are not.

    Anyone know what this suggests? Sell the news??? Or are they waiting for confirmation from the US?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Right….the thing is, even the sharp move down last july though to november (EURUSD) looks like a correction as I only see 3 waves……longer term history is an issue as the Euro hasn't been around for long even though some data providers give you data going back to 1973 !!…….some sort of synthetic quote.

    Would be interested to see anything you come up with Ultra…

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I'd say we get a small push up towards 10k on the Dow but it very quickly gets smacked down……..unless the optimism in the US gets the better of them and they head up to 11K !!

  • PRSGuitars

    DX getting skewered not exactly producing the same pop. TF lagging badly (aka RUT/IWM/etc). New highs in other 3 US indices, EUR hitting targets all around and doing so divergently…

  • tradejane

    Morning Carrot,

    it's plenty of sunny here in the ol' continent today…and very cold as well.

    It's true the DAX is bidding its time here, but all the bull$hit stocks on the DAX (Commerzbank, Infineon, etc) are up very nicely today. Seems like business as usual.

  • Tronacate

    Like I ask…..at what point does the low dollar become a negative for equitites?

  • CorporalCarrot

    I saw an article there recently which said that since US inflation is only 13% dependent on imports, the inflationary effect of the falling dollar is far less than most people think. And that the falling dollar obviously helps US Corporate profits repatriated from foreign ccy's to dollars. It doesn't seem to me like theres any US driven tipping point imminent on this. The question is really whether other Countries will continue to tolerate the value destruction of their reserves, or the competitive pressures caused by this devaluation and whether this could trigger a round of competitive devaluations.

  • Tronacate

    And competitive devaluation would be best achieved by other countries firing up their printing presses?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well the UK are certainly doing it :)

  • jacksoo

    i feel like the nutter on the bus help me please: US$ weakens so US exports become cheaper to the world bolstering economic growth/output/jobs in the US – meanwhile in Euro region for instance people are busily buying the now cheap US imported product and Euro region businesses are laying off more workers. Sounds an awful lot like a time and place we've been before – what surprises me however is that I'm hearing no rumbling of discontent from out of Europe re the potential imbalances – perhaps there aren't any?

  • CorporalCarrot

    I think yo'll find the balance is the other way. We do not import many goods from the US (relatively speaking). The US is the worlds greatest consumer. So its more that European exports are affected (since we import a lot of the same stuff you do from China, India, Taiwan, Japan etc) than we are flooded with cheap American imports.

    And trichet did recently start grumbling about the weak dollar and how it couldn't be allowed to continue.

  • CorporalCarrot

    One interesting news item today, thats kinda been forgotten about, amidst all the earnings news, is the September retail sales report. I wonder what the cash for clunkers hangover will be?

  • Trader_Steve

    Anyone not yet having read Samuel Johnson with Bill Moyers should do so. We have made true oligarchs and fed them. Now, they are four “banks” and they control it all. They borrow for zero and are investing in China. And if they fail, we will bail them out again.

    http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watc

    Johnson was the 2007/2008 IMF president. We have delayed, and ensured, a depression. Nice work, you corrupt mother-f**kers Bernake, Summers, Geithener, Paulson, and I'll toss in Bush for good measure.

    Steve

    P.S. I think we will turn tomorrow. Nothing more secure than a top turning on great news that rose previousy on bullshit.

  • Trader_Steve

    Read it and prepare. Moyers with former IMF head saying we had a chace and ruined the economy.

    http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watc

    Steve

  • PRSGuitars
  • jacksoo

    OK – so US$ buys not much any more which still impacts Euro output
    significantly.

  • ultrabear

    Cable long-term view – have overlaid SPX and interestingly it lagged in late 2007, not led (why had I thought it had?) but bottomed first – have marked the divergence.

    Anyhoo – clearly fell in 3 waves and has since risen likewise. Channel looks important and you get more interesting results for the fibs when you mark against C down, rather than the 2007 high – one to ponder there.

    Main question for me is, is that it for the up move or are we in B down of an eventual ABC. Seems unlikely. If we were to have a new bull in GBP, that B is looking mighty short. At any rate – keep an eye on that descending channel (currently miles away).

    http://screencast.com/t/QxNYIYUP1t

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I think every dog has it's day, and each market sector will probably pop up a top as the money moves around. When they have all popped up once, then yell fire and run for the exits (actually, run for the exits and then yell fire)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well the FTSE has gotten over its indecision and is printing new highs as we speak. Futures indicating 10k could easily be on the cards today.

    I notice Attila is saying hes going to short the open though and expects a major fade today. Will be interesting to say the least.

  • onorio

    Morning rats!

    EUR/USD update….

    So IMO we`re in final stages of the EUR uptrend, we should be finishing the move in some kind of ED 5th wave.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Zy9C8wAbU

    I expect a small retrace to the 1.48 area in a (d) wave followed by one final push to the 1.5050/1.5100 area in the (e) wave.

    I have a target of 1.5065/75 to the end of the move, based on wave 5 = 1.6x wave 1.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Hey PRS, What kind of pivots you got on that chart?

  • humble1 ™

    this could be a breakaway gap leading to weeks of powerful rally right into H1-MegaDate 11/16/09. we have three panics possible:

    1. M&A activity

    2. large hedge fund shorts

    3. little people who, amazingly, are still not believers but will be. to wit:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-investors

    comments?

  • ultrabear

    You did say you were going to post that link on every post LOL

    Seconded though – definitely worth watching.

  • PRSGuitars

    Regular pivots (not persons). R1 and R2 in, R3 overhead at 1757ish. Very useful…

    Gotta brag to my overnight buddies — 20 of 24 successful trades in the last 72 hrs (/es, /nq, and /6e… mostly scalps… could've chopped /6e up even harder but don't have the guts nor the account to survive it for many pips!). Shutting down for 4 hrs to prepare for the mayhem tomorrow…

    NQ update: midline still — hrm… http://screencast.com/t/7amoWvAH
    Short with a tight stop over 1760 or so. Just trying to catch a good IT position, even a retrace tomorrow will do.

    My EUR/USD look: http://screencast.com/t/VAq9P4IEn0
    If these lines break (upward TLs), we're going to collapse. I'm psyched. Woulda shoulda coulda scalped it better and even held short in preemption of the turbulence that will follow.

    Not liking what my puts will look like tomorrow morning. Trading long just doesn't quite make up ground for the burn, however, this is the price I pay and I knew what I was getting into. Might even add to puts with the explicit understanding that I will position manage near 1050 such that my position isn't too underwater… just don't wnat to overcommit, either.

    Night steve.

  • PRSGuitars

    lol, EUR rips up as I post that. Nice timing, me! Fail.

  • PRSGuitars

    edit 2 — here's the short, chart to follow

    update– dammit, missed fill, whatever, bedtime — chart: http://screencast.com/t/1CgSc8TELe2

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    That's good braggin' rights.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Just on point two. Did you see the chart of the open Short interest on the NYSE posted at ZH?

    It has declined massively already (42% from peak), and depending on the various data points you pick, back at July 07/Dec 08 levels.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-short-int

    So I think most of the short covering has already been done, and unlikely to provide much more fuel here. The others I can't really comment, except volumes are not speaking to this being a broadly particpated rally.

  • PRSGuitars

    For the youtube music lovers out there:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O2aH4XLbto&feat

    Rock on…

  • jacksoo

    ES – -higher and lower orange trend lines are you 133% markers – -interesting to see how the high this morning and the just recently hit perfectly on the channel.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Thanks Ultra…….So on a more minute level……..we could still be in the (iv) of the X or A right ? or does that look too far out of scale with the ii wave.

    I'm thinking this is a c wave of an abc of the iv……currently in the 3rd of the c….

  • PRSGuitars

    Shitload of topping tails (5min bars) on EUR/USD. Short short short (target 1.4885 scalp exit then hold if we break the wedges lower…)…

    also, @ -23.6% target on /DX of last leg up from the 76 area bottom… ambush, baby! EUR/USD short.

  • PRSGuitars

    Here we goooo….

  • humble1 ™

    CC:

    a valid point. but i hear a lot of vocal big hedge fund shorts still quacking. they have to be decapitated. some of the shorting may have been transferred to options or leveraged ETF's or still short futures. for example, the latest COT report shows commercials still net short:

    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

    btw, glad to see you got out of the way of the buzz saw.

  • PRSGuitars

    Hey — hope your son's doing better.

    You mean the inner touches on the dotted (midline) TLs of one of hte channels? Yeah, thats crazy! (and the higher touch near 1083.5)

    Good work, glad others are getting some use (or amusement, at least) out of my ideas. Night for now!

  • tradejane

    Throwing Fire huh?

    That's awesome stuff. If he isn't famous already, he should be.

    Careful out there.

  • PRSGuitars

    Thanks man! EUR/USD might be reversing if you're into that (just the topping tails, i posted stuff – see if its up your alley)

  • ultrabear

    X or A or whatever it is has completed – of that I am fairly sure.

    So that puts us in A of ABC down (favourite) or B of ABC up (if we break out of the channel…). Within those scenarios, we can expect the current wave structure to be a mess (which is good, as it's clearly not a five down).

    Most likely the big bounce yesterday is some kind of X wave. Am going to go back over the last 3 months and see what I can see (now I'm not trying to shoehorn the structure into a 5-down channel).

  • jacksoo

    Son is doing well thank you – bolt duly put in place and effects already
    noticeable.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Good point…..Perhaps I'm trying to force a 5 wave fit……One thing's for sure……Sterling now looks over bought against the USD on a 60 minute chart…….overbought as I've seen it in a while…..

  • CorporalCarrot

    Haha yes, at least now I can say I didn't close at the top of the market and have the option of going again. I would love a momentum driven blow-off top here to take the DOW to circa 10,300-10,400…….and then I will feel ready to commit again.

    I still think the last 6 months have been a liquidity driven, inventory re-stocking cycle that is probably unsustainable. Many headwinds coming down the line and the Fed liquidity spigot is being turned off.

    The best thing about it, I'm not shitting myself today wondering where this thing is going. :)

    incidentally, DAX has now got over the profit taking and has printed a fresh high. We could see all world markets do that today. Thats as good a day for a top as any :)

  • humble1 ™

    for those interested in my kind of yap, my twitter nest:

    http://twitter.com/h1moonbeam

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    That was a good fast read….thanks.

  • ultrabear

    Be ready to sell that badboy again soon then LOL

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I have been gaming the EUR/USD….will look, and then I SLEEP

  • PRSGuitars

    last chart i promise

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

    Night steve

  • PRSGuitars

    EUR/USD madness — last chart! Really!

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Fujisan was stating upside target 1.52…..just saying. But I play these move very short term…

    Night PRS

  • ultrabear

    Cable hourly view – chocks away and sell, sell, sell…

    http://screencast.com/t/Btr2BKst

  • ultrabear

    Got a feeling we are very close to an RL here but am on my ma's steam-powered laptop right now (mine has finally died I think – have ordered a new one…) and the RL website won't load so I can't check for sure…..

    Sure looks like we are going to break from that tho – cheers

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah i scalp around too when i can with /6e without killing myself.

    Kemal saying we're near a top — agress with Fuji, 1.49-1.53 ending with 'fanfares'. Check him on disqus (kemal_1) if you want to see what he had to say on the subject…

    link to Kemal's chart from yesterday: http://www.screencast.com/users/Kemal_1/folders

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Thanks Ultra, very helpful…….Now short sterling….

  • onorio

    IMO EUR top will be arround 1.5070, like i`ve posted bellow. I share Kemal view, top should be very close.

  • PRSGuitars

    light vol DX overnight pushing into -23.6% target… ambush reversal?
    divergences abound to downside on EUR/USD
    wedges/rising TLs breaking or to be broken…

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

  • PRSGuitars

    My case for a DX bottom — busy chart, i know, but it's worth it — -23.6% ambush and light volume… let's see the followthrough now…

    http://screencast.com/t/yKdIyLO01w

  • PRSGuitars

    /DX bottom possible — just to complement my EUR/USD madness chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/yKdIyLO01w

  • ultrabear

    Woo. Exciting. Is this where the correlation switches between USD and SPX I wonder…

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yeah, so on his chart, looks like we could futz around in a wave 4 triangle for a while and then a final push up to demoralize everyone and shake them out. time will tell, I'm out for the evening.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Wow….was there some news out just now ?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    JPM results….

  • PRSGuitars

    Ruh-roh! Dollar index bounced off my -23.6% target!

    EUR/USD hit its -23.6% target too at the same time. Coincidence? I think not. http://screencast.com/t/r5E00PomV

  • AntG624

    Is market selling JPM news? Futures temporarily stalled.. if this isnt stressful I dont know what is

  • onorio

    Im expecting a retrace in EUR/USD to 1.48 aprox. followed by one last high arround 1.5050/70.

    IMO this is a nice spot to short for a 100 pips ride.

  • PRSGuitars

    Its currency related (DX move up a little) also we're so far up, it's time to correct a bit…nearly at R3 overhead pivot. Just chaos now… time to see how the large volume + retail sales goes in an hour.

  • PRSGuitars

    6e, despite being a sweet vehicle, is too fast for me. Have to play it safe from the sidelines but yes, i would've been shorting 1.4910 and on — so this would be golden already! DAMMIT!

    Oh well. Have a good one (for a few hours until i get back up to deal with this mess of a market)

  • onorio

    Im wating for the final move, so i might add longs @ 1.48 to ride till 1.50.

    But for a short term trade i would short @ 1.4900 with a stop @ 1.4910

  • SlowDownFast

    8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.1%
    8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m -2.0% 2.7%
    8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% 2.0%
    10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -0.8% -1.0%
    2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
    Tentative USD Federal Budget Balance -43.3B -111.4B

  • jacksoo

    sssshhhhhh – we'll just slip this out at the back-end of all the JPM euphoira “nonperforming assets, or loans that are at least 90 days past due, more than doubled in the third quarter from the year-ago period to $20.4 billion as the economy weakened.”

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    good morning Gang!

  • Brian_mk

    morning Anna… ready to rock and roll?

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up

    Intel and JPM have each given an impetus to ES with the release of earnings and warm fuzzies about the last quarter. In between, there was normal volume and sideways trending. This leads me to suspect that the volumes on ES at the release of the news were carefully orchestrated. I smell distribution.

    If you are amazed by JPM, be aware that over 55% of their business is retail – including credit cards. And financial institutions have been known to play games with provisions. Look at what they did, and compare it to what you know about the consumer (and COF), and then tell me that it is really green shoots.

    Any fin. inst. that wants big bonuses is going to be “smoothing” results to the positive in this and the last quarter. The same applies to industrials and tech where senior mgmt would really really like to cash in their options at these lofty levels.

    There was also a bit of 2nd derivative news that adds to the recovery myth. UK unemployment was less bad this month. China's exports shrunk less this month. etc… etc…

    If all of this doesn't scream distribution, then I don't know what would convince anyone.

    Equity
    Asia was green, except for Thailand (the King's health) and Japan (growth prospects and expectations are waning). EURYEN rose. See what happens when growth expectations are lowered? The currency (Yen) falls. What does that say about the US? Why is the market going up? MBS repurchases by the FED.

    Europe is 2% green. Only Utilities are red in the DAX (why?). DAX started moving up at 4:30 AM EDT and hasn't had a pullback of any note.

    ES is up around 15 points from the second lock up at 1083ish. Volume was 239K – not the stuff of legends and only supports my opinion that this is a setup for distribution. What if you gave an earnings season and no one came? I don't see them here, yet. If I had to guess, I would say that SPX will close lower than it's open – but this is before the “NEWS”.

    FX
    USD get gang-raped, which is hilarious considering all the hypocritical statements from FCBs over the last 2 weeks. CAD, JPY, EUR, and GBP are all up EUR was on a tear and has breached the 1.49 barrier, but it is a war zone of volatility. There are very clear trend lines. In fact, on the 34 min EUR, the mid Bollinger (21 pMA) is pretty much a straight line from yesterday with a bit of a leveling off at the 18:00 – 20:00 EDT time slot. When I say straight – I mean ruler straight!

    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.4944
    R1: 1.4899 – this is where the action has been with it acting as resistance and then support. Now we are back below. I suspect a little fear that the ECB might intervene.
    Neutral: 1.4831 – A bit of a resistance yesterday, not even in the picture overnight.
    S1: 1.4786 – a DXY wet dream
    S2: 1.4717 – Note how this is higher than where most of the action took place over the last two weeks.

    News
    2nd derivative news as already mentioned. What is telling is how the MSM is phrasing the headlines – even Bloomberg. It seems to be in support of equities moving up – which to me says a sign of distribution – espectially when the news is still negative.

    Germany industrial production was up 0.9% as per forecast and versus 0.2% prior – signs of recovery, definitely, and an impetus to the EUR.
    UK unemployment rose by less this month than last – new claims up by 20K vs 25K expected and 23Kk prior.

    Intel beats, sees strong 4Q.
    JPM beats on fixed-income revenue.
    China exports fall less than previously.

    Data
    Bloomberg global confidence was 61.70 vs 58.54 prior
    MBA mortgage apps were -1.8% vs 16.4% prior (market didn't notice).
    8:30AM
    Import price index mom = 0.2% exp vs 2% prior; YoY = -11.4% vs -15% prior
    Retail sales -2.1% exp vs 2.7% prior
    10AM
    Bus inventories -1% exp (AUG) vs -1% prior

    If any of these numbers are beat, it will likely add impetus to the market. If this happens, look for IBs to sell into the move and temper it – a sign of distribution.

    SPX
    Today will open higher – but will it close there. The upper Bollinger band is still overhead. This is OPEX and the move up would be more believable if it were on huge volume and during regular market hours.

    ES pivots:
    R2: 1079.92 – we're already above this after having it be resistance all night. Moved up on the German industrial production news, and again on JPM news.
    R1: 1074.33 – crossed this at market close, on Intel news, and never looked back – but there was an ES selloff after the 2nd lockup (6PM on EDT).
    Neutral: 1068.67 – was support yesterday; I can see getting here again, in spite of OPEX, depending on how aggressive the distribution is. Don't forget that calls outnumber puts by a decent margin.
    S1: 1063.08
    S2: 1057.42 – won't see this during OPEX week, IMHO, unless some unexpected really bad news comes out.

    I am still playing intra-day and not staking anything on a view. I still feel that this is an over-exhuberant overthrow of the long trend line BIG YELLOW. I may redraw it to take into account yesterday and today, to see if I still get a decent number of hits. If not, then we may be back in the rising channel. I'm so undecided – but I'm going to be careful today to the upside, given the weak legs under this move up.

    EUR is being nice and volatile (on an intraday basis) and I'm hoping to stay lucky there with my scalping.

    Cheers.

    Europe

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    So Ready!! I am so glad you closed those puts yesterday Brian :)

  • ultrabear

    Moooooornin'. See you actually managed to dig out a sexy bear outfit for the occasion too.

    +1 LOL

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Morning Ultra! yea, getting ready to rock and roll :)

  • Brian_mk

    I live to fight another day! Had to pull out the Broncos avatar … that'll help for sure :)

  • gmak

    That sounds reasonable. I have TD resistance at 1.4906 (EUR – price exhaustion) and at 1.4908 – which is where the German news pop at 5AM ran out of steam.

    Right now it looks like the 3min EUR is marching up on a straight trend line with a pivot at 1.4899 – and the mid-Bollinger is just about to touch that pivot with a downward trend, as well.

    Cheers.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Hey Gang, I am working on a blog myself it will be slanted towards options, spreads, greeks and such, it's a work in progress, but I hope I will see some of you visit and of course i will still be here too :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    hahaha Love the Broncos! :)

  • Brian_mk

    they've been my team since the late 70's … dating myself there!

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    3 more days Urzulas

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I loved it when John Elway was Q back :)

  • derekste

    cool!

    as much as I like this site, as a newer trader I could use something with a little more detailed analysis.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Excellent, I will do Risk graph, basics on calls and puts and how the greeks work in them, and also will be able to teach just about any strategy you can think of with them… I figure that's my niche so I would have fun sharing that with traders that are interested and of course it will have a sexy female touch. :)

  • Brian_mk

    The drive! Cleveland will never live that down lol. I was so glad he won back to back Super Bowls. The guy was awesome.. he deserved it.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    yea he did and now he's an icon in Colorado. :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Morning SnP :)

  • jacksoo

    i'm a Raiders fan B but what the sh*t if it works I'll buy myself a Bronco jersey.

  • AudioTactics

    Anybody looking for a potential gap fill on a weaker than expected Retail Sales number?

    Was thinking about selling into this rally…

    I think we could at least see a pull back to 1080 support from this break-out.

  • ultrabear

    Hmmm… EUR falling like a hot rock but Cable not really joining in the fun. Do I smell one more up leg?

  • jacksoo

    didn't you notice the little release back end of all the 'good' news – their provisions for 90day + debt more than doubled to $20b

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Morning Dear…its bad to be a bear…..or to listen to bears…..I ignored all charts yesterday and went ahead with my trades…

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Looks like we'll hit 100,000 on the Dow today! Pass me the crack bowl please…

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I am a Giants fan (from NJ) originally Tampa Bay sux! I love football too

  • Nightwind

    Count me in…need all the help I can get

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I do believe the bulls will go for the 10,000 today or tomorrow, and possbily higher, or 1100 or 1121 then a really nice retracement, but would short this week thats for sure

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    me too sweetie, I am long AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, PETS, SPY i unloaded my GS yesterday for a small profit :)

  • ultrabear

    Ha ha yes it is. Will be stopping by for options school too.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    hahahah did you get my email RED?

  • jacksoo

    Raiders season ticket holder for several years when I livid in the Bay Area
    – got to see the best of them – loved Gruden -Al Davis such a drag on the
    team now though.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Yeah, just now read it. Do you mean now?

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    it will be allot of fun picking stocks to do options strategies with and will be for bulls and bears, :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    cool 😉

  • Carl V

    Hi All! This daily chart of the DJ30 is simplistic but helps me to resource my thinking after all those talks on market manips, squeezes and suddenly much higher targets. What I see here seems nevertheless obvious and evidence based:
    1. for the 1st time since March rally start we have a MUCH lower volume (NYSE) for the last top of Oct12
    2. the volumes are definitely higher on down days compared to up days
    3. also 1st time since March, a new high failure: on Oct12 price made an intraday higher high than the high of Sep23 but failed to close above Sep23 high; it failed again to do so yesterday the 13th.
    So far I am glad I didn't liquidate my puts; I added to my position yesterday by selling puts on bearish ETF's; I will add to my positions again when/if we have a close below the failure bar low, that is below 9814.45 on the DOW. We are not that far even if ES is posting a new intraday high in pre-market session.
    http://screencast.com/t/BkrCWrqdGZ
    Thoughts?

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Loved Gruden (Chucky doll LOL) now we have “I don't even know who he is” LOL

  • AudioTactics

    Good morning Anna =)

    Cheers for your thoughts!

  • jacksoo

    LO – forgot the Chucky doll references – man he was a funny guy – noway he could ever work with Al Davis any length of time – can anyone!

  • gmak

    And that's probably not enough. With so much room for provisions, all the games you would desire could be played by mgmt.

  • onorio

    EUR/USD shoul be in wave a of (d), IMO we will see 1.4820 today. This (d) wave should bottom between 1.4770 and 1.4810

  • jacksoo

    For sure – don't know sh*t about options but wld to love learn.

  • jacksoo

    And you can always teak accounting rules

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Excellent it will be different and fun and of course we blog about trading too there.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    He is hot! Gruden that is :)

    It shows cause I believe they are 0 and 4 or 5

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    brian, you out there sent you that picture just now, let me know if you get it

  • InteractiveBroker

    you guys received a mentioning ……. check out : http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/

    my german is rusty………..what is : Kleine Leberwurst ???

  • humble1 ™

    the retail sales number to watch is ex-autos; consensus is +.03%.

    whatever it is, i see no way it interrupts this breakaway gap to a new UPCYCLE.

    my twitter nest:

    http://twitter.com/h1moonbeam

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks,

    Just back from some meetings. During the meeting, I got the email alert about JPM on my crackberry, but I've come back to my desk to find the indications are relatively unmoved from the post INTC euphoria. I expected to see the DOW indicating 10k+ at this stage, but no dice.

    Whats going on?

  • gmak

    Here is part of today's email from Reuters fixed income desk in London. It is a comment on the FED and equity (risk) markets.

    <quot>
    The Fed by their own admission is playing a not-so-subtle hand in it all as quipped yesterday by the Fed”s Kohn, “low market interest rates should continue to induce savers to diversify into riskier assets, which would contribute to a further reversal in the flight and safety that has characterized the past few years.” Sounds like a risk market bull and why not when you”re dealing the cards and from the bottom of the deck no less. Kohn, though, is trying his darnedest to have the best of all worlds as by implication he is looking fro a “V” recovery in risk assets, and he sees a much lower growth trend in the economy (and inflation) itself, which in his mind should allow the Fed to keep a low level of administered rates for an extended period of time.

    This is a magic trick though that has many skeptics and has become a topic that has preoccupied the markets of late as in what shape, form and timing the Fed exit strategies from their conventional and unconventional highly accommodative monetary policy will take. Market doubters have been loading up on gold and other commodities, selling the dollar with abandon and increasingly buying treasury inflation protection securities, but so far holding any overt bearishness on bonds (and stocks), outright, in check.

    <end quote>

  • jacksoo

    “but so far…” i wonder what pushes it either way?

  • Nightwind

    VIX. Interesting repeating fractal that I just caught. Look at the May 07-Feb 08 range and compare it to 10/08 to present. Uncanny

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Could it be “pump and dump”?

  • pramood

    If the retail sales are good, it might be trend up day. Gap fill may happen tomorrow or next week.

  • Brian_mk

    got it .. thanks… looks quite different than what I sent lol

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Retail sales look good, except for autos in wake of CARS program.

  • Nightwind

    If this fractal repeats the other….we are nearing the top

  • CorporalCarrot

    Retail sales numbers good. 0.5% ex-autos.

  • Brian_mk

    yep, looks like we're goin up.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yeah, retail sales are like pouring paraffin on a fire. Would be very surprised if theres not a 10k breakthrough here today. And with GS likely to go gangbusters later on in the week (I find it hard to believe they won't beat as easily as JPM), we could punch through 1,100 on the S&P too.

    Shorts are toast here.

  • ckeltner

    You know I will be around

  • Brian_mk

    I tink Anna is right… 1100 to 1120 range for the S&P is probable at this point. And with that… time to head to the day job… good thing it's only a 10 min drive today.. then I can get back on and make some more $$

  • gmak

    Hardly the stuff that 3% GDP growth is made of, though. heh.

    Distribution, distribution, distribution.

  • innatedc

    So with such obviousness (JPM and GS having huge earnings) at what point are they priced in….after the manic buying stops? PC ratio at .10? The crowd (or should I say stampede) is going one way and one way only….how does one be a contrarian against that?

  • innatedc

    Either way folks, stand back and take stock because we are absolutely watching historical events unfold before us….life as we know it will never, ever be the same.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    banks earnings…all smoke n mirrors…where are their toxic assets? Hidden away…until mark to market is applied no one should believe their figs…unfortunately people will and do…ONE day…the chickens will come home to roost..

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Well, Treasuries aren't liking this one bit. Take a look at the ZN contract, also TLT/TBT premarket.

  • innatedc

    You'll see the vix go below 20 today…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Unless we bounce back somewhat.

  • CorporalCarrot

    At the risk of posting something that will almost certainly mark a market top, it might be time for people to consider that all these wave counts count for nothing in the face of the overwhelming supply of liquidity thats being thrown at these markets. The liquidity being pumped into the banks and then into equities/commodities is creating a self fulfilling prophecy that is gunning the earnings of the banks to provide more ammunition for the rally on “news” of their prowess in an ever expanding circle. This truly can go on for far longer than any individual can remain solvent betting against it. Anything truly is possible here.

    This all just means that the hangover will be even worse when it occurs.

  • ckeltner

    Pull up a daily chart and throw some BB's on it. Every since we closed outside the upper BB we have been on a hell bend mission to get back to the lower BB on vix which we haven't seen since early September. Currently at 21.56. We may close outside of it but will bounce back in, so I doubt under 20 today. If you look at the dailys you can see vix just bouncing back and force between the BB's in a downward pattern. Maybe after the next trip back up to the upper BB's and then back down again you will see vix sub 20.

  • flyboy08

    New Jersey!!!!!Who would have thunk it:-)…what exit!

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Thanks Ckeltner. working hard on the blog right now. :)

  • centerline

    remember that the idea of a 10% to 15% correction has been sold to the public over and over and over. This is partly why it has not happened. And for that reason why it is long overdue at the same time. A blow off top would be fun. A blow off top into a black Monday would be something off the charts (no pun intended). If the market rockets into OPEX, I would not want to be long come this weekend.

    I personally intend on going seriously short by the end of the week IF we can catapult this pig into the stratosphere today and tomorrow. If we fizzle and go flat, a different game might be unfolding. Despite holding some long dated puts (which actually are holding up OK considering I originally bought much closer to the money), I really would love to see us go 1100+ SP and 10,000+ DOW in the next 48 hours.

  • flyboy08

    Anna..this is exactly what I'm looking for! Consider me a “stalker” once the site is up and running:-)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Also a word of caution. I know a lot of people believe that 10,000 (despite the euphoria), is such a powerful psychological number that there's going to be a lot of additional supply coming to the market at this point, and that much beyond it is going to be tricky.

    I remember people saying similar things at 9,000, and when the Dow moved through that level it never went back and re-tested.

  • dollar

    Just a little reminder to offset all the giddiness:

    Majority of current RMBS borrowers underwater, Fitch says

    How’s this for a negative equity data point: the majority of borrowers whose home loans have been wrapped into a US residential mortgage backed securities transaction owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, according to Fitch.

    In a report released on Tuesday, the rating agency estimated approximately 60 per cent of the remaining performing borrowers from the 2006-2007 vintages are underwater.

    The rating agency noted the percentage of previously performing borrowers who had rolled into delinquency in September “increased modestly”, and “the number of distressed borrowers has continued to grow.”

    In September, the number of borrowers with non-agency mortgages – or loans not issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae – who were more than 90 days delinquent on their loans reached a record 1.66m.

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/14/7756

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Sorry gang on the phone with my webmaster (he's on ES and Slope) but his name shall not be revealed. (as he wishes) We are working on a bit better theme than the current one, and will be mostly about options, greeks, ITM, OTM, all the knowledge I have.. and also about trading and charts too. :)

  • centerline

    Very good point indeed. It provides only a small moment in time, when the media shouts “10,000!!!”, for people to get spooked. Very shortly thereafter (a day or so), it is forgotten.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Awesome Fly, thats what I thought would benefit the most peeps and that's what I know inside and out. :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    I was 3 yo when we left, but from Pompton Plains :)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Love the new avatar cool :)

  • centerline

    Count me in as a regular lurker and occasional poster.

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    thanks Center, I appreciate any support! :)

  • innatedc

    I have that chart up everyday…I'm just hoping the more exaggerated I get with this bullishness, the more common sense begins to prevail and balance things out….just being facetious.

  • Me_XMan

    Anyone here in fetal position?
    What the hell is going on with market???

  • centerline

    I have been preaching the same thing for some time. It is plausible that we will not see something like this again in our lifetimes. If there is a time, and you have the stomach for it, now is when risk-based-capital comes out of the closet and goes to work.

  • CorporalCarrot

    For once, I'm actually quite calm. I am net long having closed out some short hedges a couple of days ago. I am a fundamental bear, but have given up trying to fight the market, and it feels great. I think a big melt up is coming, which could propel us to 10,400 or so, at which point I will be looking to play for a big pullback on whats essentially a straight up market since 9,400.

    I should warn you however that except for yesterday, my trading calls have been hopeless of late, and you should immediately follow the george costanza principle and do the opposite 😀

  • Hanuman

    Great … I will be one of your most regular members. Good luck Anna !

  • shortcover

    what surprise? targets to 1100-1120 have been around at least since the summer for termination ranges. Granted I had figured 1050 would be the end area…just enjoy that we are getting the gift prices of a lifetime to short…just like we had panic prices at those lows to buy. it's wild…

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    Sweet hanuman! I am working very hard to make it a huge options blog (trading too)

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    NEW POST ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø

  • centerline

    gold skyrocketing. oil up. all at same time the market is poised to run up. and dollar pointing down once again.

    equities on a double shot here… wacky earnings euphoria mixed with a healthy dose of dollar destruction.

    Currency crisis looking to be the trigger for meltdown more than anything else IMO.

  • innatedc

    And you're right those targets are what everyone has talked about and whats been around…I'm just not comfortable with that fact that it seems so easy and so obvious….

  • http://www.hottraderbabes.com annamall

    sorry guys can repost on new thread :)))

  • TheMacroEconomist

    TME's the name – options the game. :)

  • Me_XMan

    I think the Gov't wants a good Holidays season for the country and they somehow will get their ways. WTF!

  • insite

    i'm inclined to agree. when the MM's are full of cash, the market becomes saturated with 'artificial' demand.

    if you give a kid a dollar & set him loose in a candy store, he will take his time & choose wisely. if, on the other hand, you give him a $100, he will grab everything he sees. this is back to friedman's three kinds of money: spend your own $$ on yourself. spend someone else's $$ on yourself, or spend someone else's money on someone else.

    the MM's are the rich kid in the candy store right now; they are spending someone else's money on themselves & accordingly have thrown sound risk mgt out the window.

    additionally, since their HFTs appear to be in excess of 50% of the volume on any given day, me thinks most TA methods that bank on human emotion / human fractal repetition will be of reduced value in a market such as this. i believe this is why so many people are getting frustrated; they've spent years developing tools to make money & suddenly those tools don't work so well anymore.

  • insite

    >>The crowd (or should I say stampede) is going one way and one way only….how does one be a contrarian against that?

    one does so at his own peril!

  • PRSGuitars

    Regular pivots (not persons). R1 and R2 in, R3 overhead at 1757ish. Very useful…

    Gotta brag to my overnight buddies — 20 of 24 successful trades in the last 72 hrs (/es, /nq, and /6e… mostly scalps… could've chopped /6e up even harder but don't have the guts nor the account to survive it for many pips!). Shutting down for 4 hrs to prepare for the mayhem tomorrow…

    NQ update: midline still — hrm… http://screencast.com/t/7amoWvAH
    Short with a tight stop over 1760 or so. Just trying to catch a good IT position, even a retrace tomorrow will do.

    My EUR/USD look: http://screencast.com/t/VAq9P4IEn0
    If these lines break (upward TLs), we're going to collapse. I'm psyched. Woulda shoulda coulda scalped it better and even held short in preemption of the turbulence that will follow.

    Not liking what my puts will look like tomorrow morning. Trading long just doesn't quite make up ground for the burn, however, this is the price I pay and I knew what I was getting into. Might even add to puts with the explicit understanding that I will position manage near 1050 such that my position isn't too underwater… just don't wnat to overcommit, either.

    Night steve.

  • PRSGuitars

    lol, EUR rips up as I post that. Nice timing, me! Fail.

  • PRSGuitars

    edit 2 — here's the short, chart to follow

    update– dammit, missed fill, whatever, bedtime — chart: http://screencast.com/t/1CgSc8TELe2

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    That's good braggin' rights.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Just on point two. Did you see the chart of the open Short interest on the NYSE posted at ZH?

    It has declined massively already (42% from peak), and depending on the various data points you pick, back at July 07/Dec 08 levels.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nyse-short-int

    So I think most of the short covering has already been done, and unlikely to provide much more fuel here. The others I can't really comment, except volumes are not speaking to this being a broadly particpated rally.

  • PRSGuitars

    For the youtube music lovers out there:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0O2aH4XLbto&feat

    Rock on…

  • jacksoo

    ES – -higher and lower orange trend lines are you 133% markers – -interesting to see how the high this morning and the just recently hit perfectly on the channel.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/jacksoo/folders

  • PRSGuitars

    Shitload of topping tails (5min bars) on EUR/USD. Short short short (target 1.4885 scalp exit then hold if we break the wedges lower…)…

    also, @ -23.6% target on /DX of last leg up from the 76 area bottom… ambush, baby! EUR/USD short.

  • PRSGuitars

    Here we goooo….

  • humble1 ™

    CC:

    a valid point. but i hear a lot of vocal big hedge fund shorts still quacking. they have to be decapitated. some of the shorting may have been transferred to options or leveraged ETF's or still short futures. for example, the latest COT report shows commercials still net short:

    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

    btw, glad to see you got out of the way of the buzz saw.

  • PRSGuitars

    Hey — hope your son's doing better.

    You mean the inner touches on the dotted (midline) TLs of one of hte channels? Yeah, thats crazy! (and the higher touch near 1083.5)

    Good work, glad others are getting some use (or amusement, at least) out of my ideas. Night for now!

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Throwing Fire huh?

    That's awesome stuff. If he isn't famous already, he should be.

    Careful out there.

  • PRSGuitars

    Thanks man! EUR/USD might be reversing if you're into that (just the topping tails, i posted stuff – see if its up your alley)

  • jacksoo

    Son is doing well thank you – bolt duly put in place and effects already
    noticeable.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Haha yes, at least now I can say I didn't close at the top of the market and have the option of going again. I would love a momentum driven blow-off top here to take the DOW to circa 10,300-10,400…….and then I will feel ready to commit again.

    I still think the last 6 months have been a liquidity driven, inventory re-stocking cycle that is probably unsustainable. Many headwinds coming down the line and the Fed liquidity spigot is being turned off.

    The best thing about it, I'm not shitting myself today wondering where this thing is going. :)

    incidentally, DAX has now got over the profit taking and has printed a fresh high. We could see all world markets do that today. Thats as good a day for a top as any :)

  • humble1 ™

    for those interested in my kind of yap, my twitter nest:

    http://twitter.com/h1moonbeam

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I have been gaming the EUR/USD….will look, and then I SLEEP

  • PRSGuitars

    last chart i promise

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

    Night steve

  • PRSGuitars

    EUR/USD madness — last chart! Really!

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Fujisan was stating upside target 1.52…..just saying. But I play these move very short term…

    Night PRS

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Got a feeling we are very close to an RL here but am on my ma's steam-powered laptop right now (mine has finally died I think – have ordered a new one…) and the RL website won't load so I can't check for sure…..

    Sure looks like we are going to break from that tho – cheers

  • PRSGuitars

    Yeah i scalp around too when i can with /6e without killing myself.

    Kemal saying we're near a top — agress with Fuji, 1.49-1.53 ending with 'fanfares'. Check him on disqus (kemal_1) if you want to see what he had to say on the subject…

    link to Kemal's chart from yesterday: http://www.screencast.com/users/Kemal_1/folders

  • Onorio

    IMO EUR top will be arround 1.5070, like i`ve posted bellow. I share Kemal view, top should be very close.

  • PRSGuitars

    light vol DX overnight pushing into -23.6% target… ambush reversal?
    divergences abound to downside on EUR/USD
    wedges/rising TLs breaking or to be broken…

    http://screencast.com/t/WSqW9ljoC8

  • PRSGuitars

    My case for a DX bottom — busy chart, i know, but it's worth it — -23.6% ambush and light volume… let's see the followthrough now…

    http://screencast.com/t/yKdIyLO01w

  • PRSGuitars

    /DX bottom possible — just to complement my EUR/USD madness chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/yKdIyLO01w

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Woo. Exciting. Is this where the correlation switches between USD and SPX I wonder…

    / looks like quite a nice place to stop too – http://screencast.com/t/hmn2dihWs6
    // let's face it, if we don't stop here, there is only blue sky above us LOL

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yeah, so on his chart, looks like we could futz around in a wave 4 triangle for a while and then a final push up to demoralize everyone and shake them out. time will tell, I'm out for the evening.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Wow….was there some news out just now ?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    JPM results….

  • PRSGuitars

    Ruh-roh! Dollar index bounced off my -23.6% target!

    EUR/USD hit its -23.6% target too at the same time. Coincidence? I think not. http://screencast.com/t/r5E00PomV

  • AntG624

    Is market selling JPM news? Futures temporarily stalled.. if this isnt stressful I dont know what is

  • Onorio

    Im expecting a retrace in EUR/USD to 1.48 aprox. followed by one last high arround 1.5050/70.

    IMO this is a nice spot to short for a 100 pips ride.

  • PRSGuitars

    Its currency related (DX move up a little) also we're so far up, it's time to correct a bit…nearly at R3 overhead pivot. Just chaos now… time to see how the large volume + retail sales goes in an hour.

  • PRSGuitars

    6e, despite being a sweet vehicle, is too fast for me. Have to play it safe from the sidelines but yes, i would've been shorting 1.4910 and on — so this would be golden already! DAMMIT!

    Oh well. Have a good one (for a few hours until i get back up to deal with this mess of a market)

  • Onorio

    Im wating for the final move, so i might add longs @ 1.48 to ride till 1.50.

    But for a short term trade i would short @ 1.4900 with a stop @ 1.4910

  • SlowDownFast

    8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 1.1%
    8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m -2.0% 2.7%
    8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 0.3% 2.0%
    10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -0.8% -1.0%
    2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
    Tentative USD Federal Budget Balance -43.3B -111.4B

  • jacksoo

    sssshhhhhh – we'll just slip this out at the back-end of all the JPM euphoira “nonperforming assets, or loans that are at least 90 days past due, more than doubled in the third quarter from the year-ago period to $20.4 billion as the economy weakened.”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    good morning Gang!

  • Brian_mk

    morning Anna… ready to rock and roll?

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up

    Intel and JPM have each given an impetus to ES with the release of earnings and warm fuzzies about the last quarter. In between, there was normal volume and sideways trending. This leads me to suspect that the volumes on ES at the release of the news were carefully orchestrated. I smell distribution.

    If you are amazed by JPM, be aware that over 55% of their business is retail – including credit cards. And financial institutions have been known to play games with provisions. Look at what they did, and compare it to what you know about the consumer (and COF), and then tell me that it is really green shoots.

    Any fin. inst. that wants big bonuses is going to be “smoothing” results to the positive in this and the last quarter. The same applies to industrials and tech where senior mgmt would really really like to cash in their options at these lofty levels.

    There was also a bit of 2nd derivative news that adds to the recovery myth. UK unemployment was less bad this month. China's exports shrunk less this month. etc… etc…

    If all of this doesn't scream distribution, then I don't know what would convince anyone.

    Equity
    Asia was green, except for Thailand (the King's health) and Japan (growth prospects and expectations are waning). EURYEN rose. See what happens when growth expectations are lowered? The currency (Yen) falls. What does that say about the US? Why is the market going up? MBS repurchases by the FED.

    Europe is 2% green. Only Utilities are red in the DAX (why?). DAX started moving up at 4:30 AM EDT and hasn't had a pullback of any note.

    ES is up around 15 points from the second lock up at 1083ish. Volume was 239K – not the stuff of legends and only supports my opinion that this is a setup for distribution. What if you gave an earnings season and no one came? I don't see them here, yet. If I had to guess, I would say that SPX will close lower than it's open – but this is before the “NEWS”.

    FX
    USD get gang-raped, which is hilarious considering all the hypocritical statements from FCBs over the last 2 weeks. CAD, JPY, EUR, and GBP are all up EUR was on a tear and has breached the 1.49 barrier, but it is a war zone of volatility. There are very clear trend lines. In fact, on the 34 min EUR, the mid Bollinger (21 pMA) is pretty much a straight line from yesterday with a bit of a leveling off at the 18:00 – 20:00 EDT time slot. When I say straight – I mean ruler straight!

    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.4944
    R1: 1.4899 – this is where the action has been with it acting as resistance and then support. Now we are back below. I suspect a little fear that the ECB might intervene.
    Neutral: 1.4831 – A bit of a resistance yesterday, not even in the picture overnight.
    S1: 1.4786 – a DXY wet dream
    S2: 1.4717 – Note how this is higher than where most of the action took place over the last two weeks.

    News
    2nd derivative news as already mentioned. What is telling is how the MSM is phrasing the headlines – even Bloomberg. It seems to be in support of equities moving up – which to me says a sign of distribution – espectially when the news is still negative.

    Germany industrial production was up 0.9% as per forecast and versus 0.2% prior – signs of recovery, definitely, and an impetus to the EUR.
    UK unemployment rose by less this month than last – new claims up by 20K vs 25K expected and 23Kk prior.

    Intel beats, sees strong 4Q.
    JPM beats on fixed-income revenue.
    China exports fall less than previously.

    Data
    Bloomberg global confidence was 61.70 vs 58.54 prior
    MBA mortgage apps were -1.8% vs 16.4% prior (market didn't notice).
    8:30AM
    Import price index mom = 0.2% exp vs 2% prior; YoY = -11.4% vs -15% prior
    Retail sales -2.1% exp vs 2.7% prior
    10AM
    Bus inventories -1% exp (AUG) vs -1% prior

    If any of these numbers are beat, it will likely add impetus to the market. If this happens, look for IBs to sell into the move and temper it – a sign of distribution.

    SPX
    Today will open higher – but will it close there. The upper Bollinger band is still overhead. This is OPEX and the move up would be more believable if it were on huge volume and during regular market hours.

    ES pivots:
    R2: 1079.92 – we're already above this after having it be resistance all night. Moved up on the German industrial production news, and again on JPM news.
    R1: 1074.33 – crossed this at market close, on Intel news, and never looked back – but there was an ES selloff after the 2nd lockup (6PM on EDT).
    Neutral: 1068.67 – was support yesterday; I can see getting here again, in spite of OPEX, depending on how aggressive the distribution is. Don't forget that calls outnumber puts by a decent margin.
    S1: 1063.08
    S2: 1057.42 – won't see this during OPEX week, IMHO, unless some unexpected really bad news comes out.

    I am still playing intra-day and not staking anything on a view. I still feel that this is an over-exhuberant overthrow of the long trend line BIG YELLOW. I may redraw it to take into account yesterday and today, to see if I still get a decent number of hits. If not, then we may be back in the rising channel. I'm so undecided – but I'm going to be careful today to the upside, given the weak legs under this move up.

    EUR is being nice and volatile (on an intraday basis) and I'm hoping to stay lucky there with my scalping.

    Cheers.

    Europe

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    So Ready!! I am so glad you closed those puts yesterday Brian :)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Moooooornin'. See you actually managed to dig out a sexy bear outfit for the occasion too.

    +1 LOL

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning Ultra! yea, getting ready to rock and roll :)

  • Brian_mk

    I live to fight another day! Had to pull out the Broncos avatar … that'll help for sure :)

  • gmak

    That sounds reasonable. I have TD resistance at 1.4906 (EUR – price exhaustion) and at 1.4908 – which is where the German news pop at 5AM ran out of steam.

    Right now it looks like the 3min EUR is marching up on a straight trend line with a pivot at 1.4899 – and the mid-Bollinger is just about to touch that pivot with a downward trend, as well.

    Cheers.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Hey Gang, I am working on a blog myself it will be slanted towards options, spreads, greeks and such, it's a work in progress, but I hope I will see some of you visit and of course i will still be here too :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahaha Love the Broncos! :)

  • Brian_mk

    they've been my team since the late 70's … dating myself there!

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    3 more days Urzulas

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I loved it when John Elway was Q back :)

  • derekste

    cool!

    as much as I like this site, as a newer trader I could use something with a little more detailed analysis.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Excellent, I will do Risk graph, basics on calls and puts and how the greeks work in them, and also will be able to teach just about any strategy you can think of with them… I figure that's my niche so I would have fun sharing that with traders that are interested and of course it will have a sexy female touch. :)

  • Brian_mk

    The drive! Cleveland will never live that down lol. I was so glad he won back to back Super Bowls. The guy was awesome.. he deserved it.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yea he did and now he's an icon in Colorado. :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning SnP :)

  • jacksoo

    i'm a Raiders fan B but what the sh*t if it works I'll buy myself a Bronco jersey.

  • AudioTactics

    Anybody looking for a potential gap fill on a weaker than expected Retail Sales number?

    Was thinking about selling into this rally…

    I think we could at least see a pull back to 1080 support from this break-out.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hmmm… EUR falling like a hot rock but Cable not really joining in the fun. Do I smell one more up leg?

  • jacksoo

    didn't you notice the little release back end of all the 'good' news – their provisions for 90day + debt more than doubled to $20b

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Morning Dear…its bad to be a bear…..or to listen to bears…..I ignored all charts yesterday and went ahead with my trades…

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Looks like we'll hit 100,000 on the Dow today! Pass me the crack bowl please…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am a Giants fan (from NJ) originally Tampa Bay sux! I love football too

  • Nightwind

    Count me in…need all the help I can get

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I do believe the bulls will go for the 10,000 today or tomorrow, and possbily higher, or 1100 or 1121 then a really nice retracement, but would short this week thats for sure

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    me too sweetie, I am long AAPL, GOOG, BIDU, PETS, SPY i unloaded my GS yesterday for a small profit :)

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Ha ha yes it is. Will be stopping by for options school too.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hahahah did you get my email RED?

  • jacksoo

    Raiders season ticket holder for several years when I livid in the Bay Area
    – got to see the best of them – loved Gruden -Al Davis such a drag on the
    team now though.

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Yeah, just now read it. Do you mean now?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    it will be allot of fun picking stocks to do options strategies with and will be for bulls and bears, :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    cool 😉

  • Carl V

    Hi All! This daily chart of the DJ30 is simplistic but helps me to resource my thinking after all those talks on market manips, squeezes and suddenly much higher targets. What I see here seems nevertheless obvious and evidence based:
    1. for the 1st time since March rally start we have a MUCH lower volume (NYSE) for the last top of Oct12
    2. the volumes are definitely higher on down days compared to up days
    3. also 1st time since March, a new high failure: on Oct12 price made an intraday higher high than the high of Sep23 but failed to close above Sep23 high; it failed again to do so yesterday the 13th.
    So far I am glad I didn't liquidate my puts; I added to my position yesterday by selling puts on bearish ETF's; I will add to my positions again when/if we have a close below the failure bar low, that is below 9814.45 on the DOW. We are not that far even if ES is posting a new intraday high in pre-market session.
    http://screencast.com/t/BkrCWrqdGZ
    Thoughts?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Loved Gruden (Chucky doll LOL) now we have “I don't even know who he is” LOL

  • AudioTactics

    Good morning Anna =)

    Cheers for your thoughts!

  • jacksoo

    LO – forgot the Chucky doll references – man he was a funny guy – noway he could ever work with Al Davis any length of time – can anyone!

  • gmak

    And that's probably not enough. With so much room for provisions, all the games you would desire could be played by mgmt.

  • Onorio

    EUR/USD shoul be in wave a of (d), IMO we will see 1.4820 today. This (d) wave should bottom between 1.4770 and 1.4810

  • jacksoo

    For sure – don't know sh*t about options but wld to love learn.

  • jacksoo

    And you can always teak accounting rules

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Excellent it will be different and fun and of course we blog about trading too there.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    He is hot! Gruden that is :)

    It shows cause I believe they are 0 and 4 or 5

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    brian, you out there sent you that picture just now, let me know if you get it

  • InteractiveBroker

    you guys received a mentioning ……. check out : http://maximiliankiefer.blogspot.com/

    my german is rusty………..what is : Kleine Leberwurst ???

  • humble1 ™

    the retail sales number to watch is ex-autos; consensus is +.03%.

    whatever it is, i see no way it interrupts this breakaway gap to a new UPCYCLE.

    my twitter nest:

    http://twitter.com/h1moonbeam

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks,

    Just back from some meetings. During the meeting, I got the email alert about JPM on my crackberry, but I've come back to my desk to find the indications are relatively unmoved from the post INTC euphoria. I expected to see the DOW indicating 10k+ at this stage, but no dice.

    Whats going on?

    Edited to add; in fact they are well off best levels which i see quoted as 9992. Now 9958.

  • gmak

    Here is part of today's email from Reuters fixed income desk in London. It is a comment on the FED and equity (risk) markets.

    <quot>
    The Fed by their own admission is playing a not-so-subtle hand in it all as quipped yesterday by the Fed”s Kohn, “low market interest rates should continue to induce savers to diversify into riskier assets, which would contribute to a further reversal in the flight and safety that has characterized the past few years.” Sounds like a risk market bull and why not when you”re dealing the cards and from the bottom of the deck no less. Kohn, though, is trying his darnedest to have the best of all worlds as by implication he is looking fro a “V” recovery in risk assets, and he sees a much lower growth trend in the economy (and inflation) itself, which in his mind should allow the Fed to keep a low level of administered rates for an extended period of time.

    This is a magic trick though that has many skeptics and has become a topic that has preoccupied the markets of late as in what shape, form and timing the Fed exit strategies from their conventional and unconventional highly accommodative monetary policy will take. Market doubters have been loading up on gold and other commodities, selling the dollar with abandon and increasingly buying treasury inflation protection securities, but so far holding any overt bearishness on bonds (and stocks), outright, in check.

    <end quote>

  • jacksoo

    “but so far…” i wonder what pushes it either way?

  • Nightwind

    VIX. Interesting repeating fractal that I just caught. Look at the May 07-Feb 08 range and compare it to 10/08 to present. Uncanny

  • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

    Could it be “pump and dump”?

  • http://stockmarketmasala.blogspot.com/ PRAMOD

    If the retail sales are good, it might be trend up day. Gap fill may happen tomorrow or next week.

  • Brian_mk

    got it .. thanks… looks quite different than what I sent lol

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Retail sales look good, except for autos in wake of CARS program.

    U.S. Sept retail sales -1.5% vs -2.3% expected.
    U.S. Sept. retail sales ex-auutos +0.5% vs. +0.3% expected.
    U.S. Sept. import prices +0.1% vs +0.3% expected.

  • Nightwind

    If this fractal repeats the other….we are nearing the top

  • CorporalCarrot

    Retail sales numbers good. 0.5% ex-autos.

  • Brian_mk

    yep, looks like we're goin up.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Yeah, retail sales are like pouring paraffin on a fire. Would be very surprised if theres not a 10k breakthrough here today. And with GS likely to go gangbusters later on in the week (I find it hard to believe they won't beat as easily as JPM), we could punch through 1,100 on the S&P too.

    Shorts are toast here.

  • ckeltner

    You know I will be around

  • Brian_mk

    I tink Anna is right… 1100 to 1120 range for the S&P is probable at this point. And with that… time to head to the day job… good thing it's only a 10 min drive today.. then I can get back on and make some more $$

  • gmak

    Hardly the stuff that 3% GDP growth is made of, though. heh.

    Distribution, distribution, distribution.

  • innatedc

    So with such obviousness (JPM and GS having huge earnings) at what point are they priced in….after the manic buying stops? PC ratio at .10? The crowd (or should I say stampede) is going one way and one way only….how does one be a contrarian against that?

  • innatedc

    Either way folks, stand back and take stock because we are absolutely watching historical events unfold before us….life as we know it will never, ever be the same.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    banks earnings…all smoke n mirrors…where are their toxic assets? Hidden away…until mark to market is applied no one should believe their figs…unfortunately people will and do…ONE day…the chickens will come home to roost..

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Well, Treasuries aren't liking this one bit. Take a look at the ZN contract, also TLT/TBT premarket.

  • innatedc

    You'll see the vix go below 20 today…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Unless we bounce back somewhat.

  • CorporalCarrot

    At the risk of posting something that will almost certainly mark a market top, it might be time for people to consider that all these wave counts count for nothing in the face of the overwhelming supply of liquidity thats being thrown at these markets. The liquidity being pumped into the banks and then into equities/commodities is creating a self fulfilling prophecy that is gunning the earnings of the banks to provide more ammunition for the rally on “news” of their prowess in an ever expanding circle. This truly can go on for far longer than any individual can remain solvent betting against it. Anything truly is possible here.

    This all just means that the hangover will be even worse when it occurs.

  • ckeltner

    Pull up a daily chart and throw some BB's on it. Every since we closed outside the upper BB we have been on a hell bent mission to get back to the lower BB on vix which we haven't seen since early September. Currently at 21.56. We may close outside of it but will bounce back in, so I doubt under 20 today. If you look at the dailys you can see vix just bouncing back and force between the BB's in a downward pattern. Maybe after the next trip back up to the upper BB's and then back down again you will see vix sub 20.

  • flyboy08

    New Jersey!!!!!Who would have thunk it:-)…what exit!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks Ckeltner. working hard on the blog right now. :)

  • centerline

    remember that the idea of a 10% to 15% correction has been sold to the public over and over and over. This is partly why it has not happened. And for that reason why it is long overdue at the same time. A blow off top would be fun. A blow off top into a black Monday would be something off the charts (no pun intended). If the market rockets into OPEX, I would not want to be long come this weekend.

    I personally intend on going seriously short by the end of the week IF we can catapult this pig into the stratosphere today and tomorrow. If we fizzle and go flat, a different game might be unfolding. Despite holding some long dated puts (which actually are holding up OK considering I originally bought much closer to the money), I really would love to see us go 1100+ SP and 10,000+ DOW in the next 48 hours.

  • flyboy08

    Anna..this is exactly what I'm looking for! Consider me a “stalker” once the site is up and running:-)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Also a word of caution. I know a lot of people believe that 10,000 (despite the euphoria), is such a powerful psychological number that there's going to be a lot of additional supply coming to the market at this point, and that much beyond it is going to be tricky.

    I remember people saying similar things at 9,000, and when the Dow moved through that level it never went back and re-tested.

  • dollar

    Just a little reminder to offset all the giddiness:

    Majority of current RMBS borrowers underwater, Fitch says

    How’s this for a negative equity data point: the majority of borrowers whose home loans have been wrapped into a US residential mortgage backed securities transaction owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, according to Fitch.

    In a report released on Tuesday, the rating agency estimated approximately 60 per cent of the remaining performing borrowers from the 2006-2007 vintages are underwater.

    The rating agency noted the percentage of previously performing borrowers who had rolled into delinquency in September “increased modestly”, and “the number of distressed borrowers has continued to grow.”

    In September, the number of borrowers with non-agency mortgages – or loans not issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae – who were more than 90 days delinquent on their loans reached a record 1.66m.

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/14/7756

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sorry gang on the phone with my webmaster (he's on ES and Slope) but his name shall not be revealed. (as he wishes) We are working on a bit better theme than the current one, and will be mostly about options, greeks, ITM, OTM, all the knowledge I have.. and also about trading and charts too. :)

  • centerline

    Very good point indeed. It provides only a small moment in time, when the media shouts “10,000!!!”, for people to get spooked. Very shortly thereafter (a day or so), it is forgotten.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Awesome Fly, thats what I thought would benefit the most peeps and that's what I know inside and out. :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I was 3 yo when we left, but from Pompton Plains :)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Love the new avatar cool :)

  • centerline

    Count me in as a regular lurker and occasional poster.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    thanks Center, I appreciate any support! :)

  • innatedc

    I have that chart up everyday…I'm just hoping the more exaggerated I get with this bullishness, the more common sense begins to prevail and balance things out….just being facetious.

  • Me_XMan

    Anyone here in fetal position?
    What the hell is going on with market???

  • centerline

    I have been preaching the same thing for some time. It is plausible that we will not see something like this again in our lifetimes. If there is a time, and you have the stomach for it, now is when risk-based-capital comes out of the closet and goes to work.

  • CorporalCarrot

    For once, I'm actually quite calm. I am net long having closed out some short hedges a couple of days ago. I am a fundamental bear, but have given up trying to fight the market, and it feels great. I think a big melt up is coming, which could propel us to 10,400 or so, at which point I will be looking to play for a big pullback on whats essentially a straight up market since 9,400.

    I should warn you however that except for yesterday, my trading calls have been hopeless of late, and you should immediately follow the george costanza principle and do the opposite 😀

  • Hanuman

    Great … I will be one of your most regular members. Good luck Anna !

  • shortcover

    what surprise? targets to 1100-1120 have been around at least since the summer for termination ranges. Granted I had figured 1050 would be the end area…just enjoy that we are getting the gift prices of a lifetime to short…just like we had panic prices at those lows to buy. it's wild…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Sweet hanuman! I am working very hard to make it a huge options blog (trading too)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    NEW POST ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø

  • centerline

    gold skyrocketing. oil up. all at same time the market is poised to run up. and dollar pointing down once again.

    equities on a double shot here… wacky earnings euphoria mixed with a healthy dose of dollar destruction.

    Currency crisis looking to be the trigger for meltdown more than anything else IMO.

  • innatedc

    And you're right those targets are what everyone has talked about and whats been around…I'm just not comfortable with that fact that it seems so easy and so obvious….

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    sorry guys can repost on new thread :)))

  • TheMacroEconomist

    TME's the name – options the game. :)

  • Me_XMan

    I think the Gov't wants a good Holidays season for the country and they somehow will get their ways. WTF!

  • insite

    i'm inclined to agree. when the MM's are full of cash, the market becomes saturated with 'artificial' demand.

    if you give a kid a dollar & set him loose in a candy store, he will take his time & choose wisely. if, on the other hand, you give him a $100, he will grab everything he sees. this is back to friedman's three kinds of money: spend your own $$ on yourself. spend someone else's $$ on yourself, or spend someone else's money on someone else.

    the MM's are the rich kid in the candy store right now; they are spending someone else's money on themselves & accordingly have thrown sound risk mgt out the window.

    additionally, since their HFTs appear to be in excess of 50% of the volume on any given day, me thinks most TA methods that bank on human emotion / human fractal repetition will be of reduced value in a market such as this. i believe this is why so many people are getting frustrated; they've spent years developing tools to make money & suddenly those tools don't work so well anymore.

  • insite

    >>The crowd (or should I say stampede) is going one way and one way only….how does one be a contrarian against that?

    one does so at his own peril!