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1300 – The Fourth Battle
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1300 – The Fourth Battle

by The MoleDecember 4, 2011

A lot of guessing going on right now – and who could blame you guys? Well, for starters – me of course!

Look here my dear stainless rodent friends – we are in obvious limbo territory right now (the favorite of market makers in case you didn’t figure that one out yet) and IMNSHO the odds are rather iffy until we touch and breach the 1300 mark.

So, why 1300 Mr. Mole? Since late October we’ve had three attempts to reach and breach that coveted mark (bulls love round numbers) – but each one failed ignominiously and the third ended in an unmitigated disaster for the longs. The current push up is has been a Fed sponsored short squeeze deluxe and obviously weak handed late comers are now due to be taken to the cleaners.

There are many reasons why a final push up may not be imminent until mid December. First, as I already pointed out the weak hands usually get one in the groin before a big move higher. Second, we’ve come a long way and will require strong hands to push things through that 1300 mark. Third, there’s a volume abyss right at the magic mark and it will most likely take some kind of cloak and dagger operation to get us through that one – again, not something retail schmucks usually get to enjoy. So, I again expect some type of red herring and a bit of downside before the real players make their move.

The hourly chart shows us a NLBL at 1252 – which is above the 25-hour SMA. Nice entry if we can get it and it should take us to either 1260 on a breach or 1240 on a failure. This one is valid for the next few hours, so keep an eye on that.

More perspectives below for the subs – please step into my musky lair:
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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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As I said on Friday, the only information we have on the daily panel right now is the target area of 1300 – ooops! Isn’t that the magic mark we are supposed to be breaching? Yet more fuel to the notion that it’ll take a quite a bit of doing to push above it. Until we do all kinds of bearishness could present itself at any time. Also, do not forget the time dimension – the longs have a few weeks of Santa Rally available to them and if they can’t breach this important milestone it would be a fourth failure and a catastrophic one. Not sure if you guys have heard of the expression – in the market four times usually is a charm. And given expected corrective action in early January an inability to push above may turn out to be extremely painful to the bulls.

If you recall that 1260 target area on the hourly spoos – it also seems to be of prime importance on my daily SPX P&F chart. Once your remove all the noise we see a clear reflection of that diagonal resistance line that yet has to be breached. Good news for the bulls is that the bearish price objective has been met and that we have a ‘long tail up’ alert, which should take us higher on a close above 1260.

The weekly SPX chart may be of assistance in that we now have a brand spanking new NLBL at 1277 and change (assuming we make it across 1260 – right now I have my doubts). At least this gives us something to hold on to should we push higher after a little shake out. I know I keep pointing that out and perhaps I’m just being paranoid – if it happens then holding the 1220 mark will probably be of key importance, otherwise Santa may just show up with an empty sack.

Copper is now looking more bullish – we have a new bullish price objective (BPO) at 4.35 and a bearish signal reversal. But what is also rather apparent is how copper has lagged behind equities as of late. Not sure how to interpret that at the current time but a push above 3.6 may give equities a much needed boost – look out for that as well as for a failure.

Otherwise I don’t have too much to report today – nothing really exciting on the currencies front right now. Commodities are bumbling around a bit and I’m not too excited about anything except cocoa, which is a setup I am patiently waiting for. No worries, when it’s ready for the plucking I will let you subs know first. If you are not a commodities trader then you can use either CHOC or NIB as rough replacements – I personally prefer the latter.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    First! HEHEHEHE, copper showing us now;)

  • Fibz
  • Anonymous

    taking profit from the usd/zar trade.

  • Anonymous

    headfake

  • Anonymous

    /GC already filled the gap.

  • Anonymous

    Sure looks that way, IMO we could see some selling today. Will be watching for a break of 1220-1225 area. If this holds than up we go;)

  • Anonymous

    Yeah. It will take time. China may actually have to devalue the yuan beleive it or not. Not going to be good for copper, aussie or most commodities.

  • Anonymous

    Go Copper Go

    Drop that Copper

  • Anonymous

    Your right on brother!
    keep it up;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • TwinTurboRX7

    Mole, daily zero update?

  • Anonymous

    /DX support held!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I thought I had done it on Friday. Just did it again – please reload.

  • Anonymous

    Start to see some action FX side

  • Fibz

    divergence between AUD/JPY and SPX. looks like a bit of a squeeze in AUD/JPY.

  • Anonymous

    /DX 5 min gap & go;)

  • Anonymous

    Gold starting to take some heat from those dollar bulls.

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY waking up.

  • Anonymous

    Selling the rips;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Morning, Spartan rats.

    /ES
    http://tinypic.com/r/20t46ex/5

  • Anonymous

    The Spartans lost on Saturday, in a heartbreaker against Wisconsin.

  • Anonymous

    Nice move.

  • Anonymous

    Dollar just tanked!

  • Fibz

    “merkel and sarkozy in agreement” lol

  • Anonymous

    SPX just about tagged the 200 ma on the daily and retreated.

  • Anonymous

    idiots’ hour still on

  • Anonymous

    Had that buy signal on the 5 minute last night and would think that the hourly would take preferance;)

  • Anonymous

    LOL!

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… for slow swinging slugs.  I have no idea where it will go??? so just trail it until stopped out…
    http://screencast.com/t/GdouNDkE8

  • Anonymous

    Time to pull the rug:)

  • Anonymous

    Exactly my thought. No punch for latecomers, just punches.

  • Anonymous

    I jumped in with a reasonable, not oversize position on Friday but have no idea how far this rally can go.  Given the degree of schizophrenia this market has shown us for the last few months, I trust nothing and expect everything.  This COULD rally for a while, but my rational mind sees the risks as being huge and tectonic.  The market doesn’t seem to care for now and I have learned enough to let the tape do the talking.  However, to avoid overtrading, I am inclined to put a trailing stop at half of my profits and turn the screen off!

  • Anonymous

    Great idea. Greed kills profits.

  • Anonymous

    Time to close the gap.

  • Anonymous

    Added short here, looks like lots of resistence.

  • Anonymous

    right now   ES =  SPX

  • Anonymous

    Wow, zero is strong today

  • Anonymous

    ….

  • rhae

    I agree, I can’t predict what the geniuses of the world will pull on us next… so it’s back to the charts 101

  • rhae

    wave good bye?  just kidd’en

  • Anonymous

    Shit! Even NFLX is up today;)

  • Anonymous

    Seems to be the right count

  • Anonymous

    Mole no trendalert today?

  • Anonymous

    If the expected doesn’t happen…

  • Anonymous

    IMO bulls need to close above the 200ma SPX, could be a nice move today if thay don’t get it;) See if ZL gives some clues!

  • Anonymous

    agreed. It’s the bulls’ game to lose at this stage. We got a nice exhaustion move already. So if they cannot find that second wind then it’s game over.

  • Anonymous

    Can the Zero have a H&S?  Would that be meaningful? 

  • Fibz

    starting to sound a little biased on here…

  • Anonymous

    Never heard of a H&S on zero

  • Anonymous

    got it NOW……so far

  • Anonymous

    Dollar gaining!

  • Anonymous

    Yes Copper also topped out . . . it needs to break the Oct 28th High for this equity rally to have any real meaning seems to me

    Trin says we need to sharp sell off before higher equity prices are likely

  • rhae

    another type of gap… today was not a true gap. those are the kind that you can roll a bowling ball through without hitting a previous price, Friday’s high was very close… so today’s gap might be easier to fill, maybe…

  • Anonymous

    Sorry! Will tone it down a little;) Slap! OK, that’s better;)

  • Anonymous

    looking at an /SI short with breach of hourly NLSL 32.52, maybe can catch it on a bounce back to it

  • Anonymous

    I see stars on cable at ZeroFX.

  • Anonymous

    That was one hell of a squeeze the past week! Lets see if we retrace now;) Dollar still gaining and EUR/USD looks weak.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Does anyone know how to ‘invest in leather’?

  • Anonymous

    Long in NLSL bounce on 5min at 1,5668 with a virgin-tight stop.

  • Anonymous

    HOG

  • Anonymous

    Nice sloping signal on ZL!

  • Anonymous

    Nice breakout on dollar!

  • Anonymous

    ZFX stuck?

  • Fibz

    AUD/JPY squeeze.

  • Anonymous

    New post probobly:)

  • Anonymous

    That rug pull I referred to earlier based on the TRIN appears to be in play.

    Dollar moving up solid

  • Anonymous

    Good call DT!

  • Anonymous

    Looks to me like a tree shaking then rally into friday unless Dollar breaks that 78.89 high with vigor

  • Fibz

    lots of weak bulls getting scared here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There we go… :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is it me or is the new TOS version buggy?

  • Anonymous

    GG did your double T end today or tomorrow…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually I got nothing today, sorry folks…

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..back from lunch and behold SPX 1254.50?!

    today would make a good upside down post hole.

  • Anonymous

    that was wave c of wave 4 prolly? 5 next maybe..

  • Anonymous

    That’s okay. Banking coin with the Zero. I didn’t think you’d take ZFX off line for a post, but if that kind of thing is necessary, we need to chip in and get you another system :-)

  • Anonymous

    I’ll drink to that!

  • Anonymous

    ”sharp” selloff??

  • Anonymous

    Don’t bother waste your brain on that.

  • Anonymous

    yeah , I get lag quite often and have to logout
    then it wouldn’t give me the trade menu once today

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, he’s getting pretty close to being banned forever… sheeesshh…

  • Anonymous

    Second that

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    [GG wants a jack & Coke]

    note the red circle on last weeks post.
    http://oi42.tinypic.com/o5ncwj.jpg

    they jacked it, that one last time today.
    always got to watch that.

  • Anonymous

    Nice wedge on 5min ES

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    today.
    I pulled the sub-T out of the graphic.

    (no guarantee of a reversal, Market can do whatever it wants. just better probability)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    AUD/JPY divergent again.

  • Anonymous

    5 or 60 min? Thx

  • Anonymous

    Thanks…

  • Anonymous

    thanks

  • Anonymous

    When in doubt – go with the IT trend. Makes sense? Since we are very less likely to pick tops and bottoms anyways…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XLE 70.70, a couple nickels from base camp.

    I can see fiancials getting spooked, and selling, but not energy.
    it’s one big fubar.

    just looked at XLF, I guess it’s in a channel at this point, testing.

  • Anonymous

    Scare the children two days in a row? We shall see;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s scary. 

    dooM.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/15rysyd.png

  • Fibz

    was just thinking there’s a bunch of scared babies in this market. let’s all quit when we’re almost to the top of the mountain.

  • Anonymous

    $SPX looks like a clean rejection at the 200d SMA. Short term it is sitting on support in the form of the 25h SMA right now. The question remains where this thing will go next. If we don’t pull of a miracle turnaround in the next 35 minutes the last two daily candles will look rather unhealthy in regard to the upside case.
    More annoying, however, is the current lack of setups. None of the usual suspects are showing us any edge.

  • rhae

    I did not expect price to go the Moon in one shot… just in case the rocket gets a recharge…
    SPY Moon Shoot, waiting to hear from Houston to see if it may have a problem…
    http://screencast.com/t/M1DFyNBxg

  • Fearless

    Going back to a remark I made in my post “Big Nasty Short Squeeze”, I said “Now that the December opex reversion has already occurred (at 1236), I see no edge, bull or bear, in trying to play the market from now (November 30) to December opex, unless you’re an options seller.”

    I warned all stainless steel rats here last week.

  • Wave_Surfer

    I heard there was a “leather and hides” commodity market, but there are no futures for the commodity.  I was curious if anyone here knows how to directly invest in leather.  I could not find a leather, or raw hide ETF.

  • Anonymous

    I agree Fearless it is why Ive been so silent lately. Belly is full so now I’ll just wait for more lethal moves down or up to snap an order in.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    that butt.. Ill become her chair for a day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Told ya guys they would take the retail chasers to the cleaners. 

  • Fearless

    Yeah, there is no need to trade every day (that’s over-trading IMO). The opex reversion strategy I employed has substantially reduced the amount of trades necessary to reach the same profit target. I had been testing it on paper for a while and post-Thanksgiving was the first time I actually deployed it. I will monitor the next two opex reversion trades and perhaps I could reduce the amount of my trades by 75%.

  • Anonymous

    I see, the positive I see right now is the spx being above 1240. The obvious obstacle will be the giant red oval with the line being at 1280. In shorter term this could be a nightie night to 1280.

  • Fearless

    If it gets to 1280 this week, then it’ll be another December opex reversion trade – this time on the short side.

  • Anonymous

    As long as I have face she has a place to sit . . . .

  • Anonymous

    haha!

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

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  • Anonymous

    Remaining short after that!

  • Anonymous

    Agree completely mate – I got nothing! 😉 Sitting on the sidelines

  • Anonymous

    I’m curious, how exactly do you define that reversion strategy?

  • Anonymous

    I “triple” dog dare S&P to downgrade..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • Fibz

    the boys call S&P when they want to buy cheap.

  • Anonymous

    banned cuz of wave stuff i am guessing?