You are forewarned that this will take you all week to read and digest. Sorry, but when I (Volar) play in the sandbox, I want to be very sure of my unbiased examination ;-). I think my analysis here is something you just might want to print and save for the future- 15 charts worth more than $29 bucks IMNSHO. This is much to write, and I pre-apologize for spelling and grammatical errors (I am a quant & a trader- not much more).
Moreover, I think you should first read THIS && THIS . You will notice that I had some bearish thoughts on that new high- which happened to be the top. I remember many bulls then. Well I only bot OTM puts then- they have worked well. However, [...]
As you may have guessed I have a special ‘bond’ edition on my mind this evening.
I’ll make this a free-for-all as I only have one chart – leeches everywhere rejoice! Specifically the 30-year treasury futures, which in my not so humble opinion are painting one superb opportunity to get positioned. Look at the daily panel, we had a blast outside both BBs, just the way I like it. Then I was waiting for some type of sign that the up trend may be due for a correction. This was delivered in the form of four consecutive lower closes, just as prescribed by Dr. Mole. It dropped right into a new NLSL and then painted a reflex bounce – not so fast, [...]
Despite that little early morning spike today was a good example of an unfolding down trending day:
I think the video says it all – the bulls never got out of the gate and got completely cock blocked by Mr. VWAP.
Now, since Volar mentioned the ISEE I decided to update my own chart. The subs get a peek: [amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your [...]
A thousand pardons for posting over you Mole, but I fear this is important. [Mole: you are forgiven, mate].
Bottom line, the bearish case is intact, but hanging by 4/5 of a fly’s foreskin.
When we had the 3 updays followed by a shooting star candle on an UNRETESTED LOW the odds overwhelmingly favored a down close.
Thats what happened.
But its up to the bears to take this and run with it hard. Any breach of the daily high should start a short squeeze of unknown duration. Sure there is epic resistance above, but I suspect the amount of retail shorts in the market could squeeze past that resistance and start something stupid.
So the [...]