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Tacky Tuesday Rub Down
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Tacky Tuesday Rub Down

by The MoleMay 19, 2009

Fabulous Zero day – despite the fact that some people kept complaining on the blog and via email. What is it with you leeches?

We never dipped below the zero mark on the Lite but the developing divergence was pretty obvious – the final release was almost procedural as the tape was being painted all day starting with the first few candles (look at my early post).

I came back from the gym a bit late but managed to grab a few Cubes puts as we breached this channel. Of course it’s not exactly fun to watch the NQ drop like a rock while your Cubes puts are not gaining in value at all – sick of all that MM fuckery.

Mr Vix closed below its 2.0 Bollinger again and you know what that means. We are one step in a possible equity sell signal.

I have been getting a lot of heat here in the past few days (blog post + email) and I have to tell you guys – you’re sucking the energy out of me. If this continues it’s going to get very quiet around here – very quiet. Now show me some love, bitches.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    Bear Trap…? We will see tomorrow….Always a suspect when selling is done last minute.

  • annamall

    Here is a repost of my HPQ put spread. They are down AH, we shall see what happens to that piece of garbage tomorrow.

    http://screencast.com/t/v6qDYocxz

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    So maybe soylent blue, i.e. C of X? That's what it feels like to me. It'd be nice to take this stupid bull suit off for a while.

  • FormulaTrader

    I may be ignorant but it appears to me that if everyone including Fox News thinks we are headed down from here then we are no way close to the top. Many who are betting short have already placed their bets in my very humble opinion. Most people I know are short and are not making any money. Again just my 2c. It would be too easy otherwise wouldn't it?

  • BalaB

    Fuji ~ Nice call on the Doji

  • BigIslandLife

    Anna left you a answer on last thread Aloha

  • annamall

    Molealicious, how could they complain about something that worked perfectly! :-)

  • annamall

    yea she did! and I agreed with her :-)

  • molecool

    Because they are fucking idiots and I'm going to reverse their charges and ban them for life.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Agreed, especially when Fox new is acting rational, I can only assume they are tryping to draw more money into the short side, because EVERYone knows this is s bear market rally….how a 61% retrace to crush a few bears. Not to be a consiparcist….also, the banks havent “gathered more investment capital” or at least enough, IMHO….they need many hundreds of billions, and this last few months of market manipulation to jack their shares prices up enough before they dilute the heck out of them.

    The pump and dump needs to continue and will unless Wallstreet/Fed/ HBB (the whole Banksta clan) has truly lost control.

    Bill Gates just sold off $180M of stock…granted thats not much, but it is a few percent of his portofolio I would postulate. I think Gates was a great computer guy, and is now a great market manipulator, but dont think he is any rocket scientist when is comes to the financial markets.

  • molecool

    The Fox news guys are not traders – they are talking more long term. Yes you will see higher tape but there will be a correction of this correction (the b of an a-b-c) before we push higher – either now or later down the line.

  • amgrant

    Agree, ain't falling for it anymore. While I am slightly short, I will short with conviction when there is no two ways about it that we are headed lower. For now buying the dips remains the mantra du jour.

  • BalaB

    LOL – Well, then you get a point up also….

    I don't know why people are complaining to Mole about Zero. Look at the tape! Show me where there was mucho liquidity!?

    I have a lot of reservations about playing the short side 'heavy' right now. You can tell how the moves up are thick, rich candles but the down moves are stuttered, clumsy, and perilous (IMO)….Especially when the USD is taking a dive on a daily basis.

    Your thoughts? Anyone?

  • nummy

    avatar stealer! j/k :) nice one.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    KSU short might work at 17.5 or so**here’s a chart of what I mean–
    Besides that, Shorts are paying bigger , Lower lows , lower highs

  • unibummer

    Agreed, no complaints here with zero… saved my ass some pain today. Saw the divergence on zero lite and averaged down on a few short positions, now sitting even or in the green :-) Thanks Mole!

  • ZigZag

    Mole, keep him happy!…Is it safe for me to get my mail today? :-)

  • molecool

    I'm playing it very small right now – this whole thing is as you said way too perilous. And I'm going to continue playing it very small – just to not get rusty – until the end of the summer.

  • molecool

    Must make sure you check underneath your seat.

  • Skates

    Agreed Anna, saw the divergance and added FAZ calls…made all my losses from yesterday + more back!!!!!

    Also, saw the VIX thrown into the lower BB mid day, this should setup for some serious downside atleast back to the midpoint on the BB which would equal roughly 40 ES points?

  • Scoops

    All I can say is that the manipulation is getting more and more blatant. Case in point the tidbit on Fox News. They can fool the public, and hold this pig up for the time being, but it's all going to end very badly.

    Bought puts on LMT, STT, COP, KG, CAH.

    SPY 09 75 P is looking Juicehhhher by the day.

  • mrclam

    bill gates routinely sells his shares in MSFT. nothing much to say about it, and not really a big deal either.

  • Squidman

    Just let them theta burn to zero. There has to be some attrition, sooner the better. Great day for the zero Mole, kept me from doing anything stupid.

  • annamall

    Mole, Good call, if they don't appreciate a good thing you take it away. Zero kept me in the game today!

  • annamall

    Hey you guys. Just imagine, Unibummer lives down the street (just a county over) from me!~ LOL

    He might be able to teach me a few tricks up his sleeve. 😉 (J/K)

  • annamall

    Good deal uni! Glad you had a good day mate!

  • annamall

    BTW Rats since HPQ is down AH I am holding my short NQ overnight. (unless they should turn sometime tonight) HPQ is a Dow component, but also heavily affects the /NQ. Finally something working just right. Maybe that stupid planet Mercury is back in it's place :-)

  • Royal With Cheese

    ANNAMALL.. I sent you a one way first class ticket with Air France to come see me in Paris … I need a foot massage after a day like that !! 😉

  • lester

    do you mean it kept you from closing your shorts

  • LostIllini

    JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon says 2008 “might have been our finest year ever.” His comment came at the firm's relatively calm shareholder meeting, where the sharpest criticism of board members was that they didn't introduce themselves individually to shareholders.

    Yes Jamie, I agree. I think when historians look back at 2008 they will see what a banner year it truly was for the financial industry. I'm just a little surprised Wall Street didn't factor in your stellar results into share price, it's a real head scratcher.

  • annamall

    LMOL that would be awesome! (you do deserve that! ) :-)

  • annamall

    Yep!

  • Royal With Cheese

    I'm in SKF @ $41.27 … if my freakin' analysis works I'll be able to buy you a round trip :

    http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/2009/05/xl

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, BB, and I agree with you. I would have picked up some puts EOD under the normal conditions, but I was so hesitent to pick them up as I don't want to be burned.

    I was listening to Basil Chapman's program and he identified the current price pattern as “stalk leg pattern” which is a very rare price pattern only observed once in a blue moon (observed in 1929, 2000 and 2007 highs) at the top, and not recovery high like right now.

    What this pattern does is that, it goes up and up, and when it goes down, it only lasts for a couple of days, and then it goes back up again — which is exactly what is happening and that's why it's very hard to short this market because there is trend to the downside.

    I will start looking at going shorts after this consolidation is over, and I will play it small until then.

  • annamall

    I am also playing it small or with spread (to limit the risk) If HPQ stays down, we will at least see some down side tomorrow.(that piece of garbage! :-))

  • annamall

    ROTFLMBO!!!

  • Earl of Subway

    Mole, you are laugh out loud funny. LOL doesn't do it justice.

  • Count_de_Monee

    I think you guys got it all wrong. We should really be thanking my neighbor and her impeccable sense of timing. Notice that after I said she was getting, ahem, more comfortable, the market dutifully started dropping, just like I predicted. Great little indicator I got there, and much more enjoyable to watch than the Vix.

    And mole, if you're getting heat, just remember De Niro:
    “Don't let yourself get attached to anything you are not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat if you feel the heat around the corner.” Either that or use the spam filter.

  • ZigZag

    I think he's your brother. :-)

  • ropey

    3 cheers for that, i got some payback to dish out on this damn market

  • molecool

    Good luck with that – I can't even import her to L.A. 😉

  • BalaB

    fwiw….I just went back and counted the EOD action in the NQs. The pattern was:
    Drop 1.5 to 2pts, then cover….buy a little, then drop 1.5-2pts, cover…..buy a little,,,drop 1.5-2pts….

    Reminds me of Elaine's dancing from that episode of Seinfeld.
    http://elainedance.ytmnd.com/

  • Keirsten

    Snort.

  • Keirsten

    NR7 day and GS posts a shooting star. Shortened week for bond trading too. Works for me. :-)

  • Royal With Cheese

    Really ?? are they Evil ??

    Bastille is a cool place !

    next time you come to Paris Mole drop me a note ! 😉

  • Count_de_Monee

    Paris est trop chère, et Monsieur Sarkozy est un connard.
    Mais les francaises sont trés mignones et libérés :-)

  • katzo7

    As the self-appointed morals coach, I have to caution you here Royal. I have been informed that you “post elsewhere” and only come over here to pick off the fly girls, to rope the fillies. This is a no no! You want to play, you have to play.
    We expect to see you over here posting much more or 'the Angel” will deal with this and ban your ass!
    Now shape up! LOL

  • annamall

    L.A would be my first stop! 😉

  • Count_de_Monee

    Is that Bastille remark intended as some kind of slander on my ancestors? 😉

  • annamall

    Yes, you do!

  • katzo7

    Moe, I haven't signed up yet, too busy at work now but can I get my money back now?

  • usulcount

    The stock market keeps going up…

    “Was There Really a Financial Crisis?”

    is is somewhat off-topic, but have you seen an changes in the thougths of any hedge funds

    that you respect that were previously in the long dollar long long U.S. debt camp? I am

    thinking of Hayman Capital, for example. In March, they were of the opinion that the U.S.

    was in better shape then the rest of the world, and that we were in a deflationary spiral

    that dwarfed the Fed's efforts to print money. Giv

  • lester

    what is the symbol for that spread (I cannot help myself)

  • usulcount

    ROFL..wow I coudn't stop laughing

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

  • usulcount

    ROFL..wow I coudn't stop laughing

    http://youtube.com/67768g555rg4

  • Royal With Cheese

    Hey Annamall .. you can make a world tour : LA (Mole) , Palo Alto(T.K), Paris (Me), Istanbul (Atilla) !! LOL

  • Count_de_Monee

    Exactly Katzo. And he's using the oldest trick in the book, trying to impress her with his french.
    It's becoming a regular occurence around here. These slopers come over here and try to seduce our evil ratettes with their slick sophisticated ways and bring them over to the slopey side.
    I even had to hide them in the barn yesterday when Stew came over itching to steal our womenfolk.

    Glad to see you're on the ball Katzo. An evil lair that does not defend it's women is not worthy of its name.

  • molecool

    That sounds like a fun trip – except for Istanbul it's actually all on my itinerary.

  • Matador11235

    maybe you could buy a mac book pro with your profits.

  • annamall

    Repost HPQ going below 34.00 tomorrow! 😀

  • lester

    HPQ now down 5% AH

  • Count_de_Monee

    Hey, an impostor!

    Is that you Ned?

    You do know it's a crime to impersonate a member of the nobility, don't you?

  • katzo7

    I have it on good info he is from Newark, New Jersey. And he drives a 1989 Impala.

  • Royal With Cheese

    LOL !!!

  • BearsRus

    What's up with the Trols Mole?
    Just ignore BS and continue to do your hard work 😉

    Btw. sure glad to see that VIX outside the bbands..

    Long FAZ 4.79

  • moneyfarm

    FYI – not seeing your chart. KSU looks to be giving back all of today's gains after hours. I'm seeing some setups in Transports. I'm looking at BNI and UNP as shorts on pullback. BNI triggered an alert for me today 70, but I missed it. IYT ETF looks to setting up as well.

  • Count_de_Monee

    SWEET

  • Royal With Cheese

    Attack of the Clones !!!! LOLLLLLL

  • Count_de_Monee

    Mole, Anna, someone.

    Please zap Ned (oh, and if you have it, give me his IP number so I can have some fun with him)

  • Royal With Cheese

    You didn't like Midnight Express ??? How come ?? lol

  • Skates

    FAZ is sky rocketing AH, upto 5.24!

  • katzo7

    I thought the symbol was FIRM.

  • annamall

    I told ya Lester under 34.00 tomorrow. My spread should work real nice. It should double if it stayed right here.

  • Count_de_Monee

    That's for the subsidiary company. The parent SWEET owns both FIRM and MUFF after a hostile takeover.

  • onorio

    i don`t know who can complain about zero….people should complain about them self, for not follow zero.

    market keeps sending signals of a possible roll over, but the fact is that we keep on bullsh*t mode.

  • katzo7

    Turnaround Tuesday, don't think anyone mentioned it yet.

  • Royal With Cheese

    I think Ned saw “Attack of the Clones” !!

  • molecool

    Next spring for sure – too much on my plate this year. We'll head for the Buddha Bar and have drinks – is that place still open?

  • annamall

    is he back on here?/

  • Marc45

    One divergence that kept me short today (in addition to the Zero) was the selling on strength in the SPYs. It seems not all big money is bullish, heh heh…

  • molecool

    Babelfish strikes again.

  • annamall

    Is that him above you? the fake count?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I wasnt really researching Gates habits, however, it seemed a large number.
    Insider own 13.33% of MSFT, there are 8.9B shares out, that is 1.18B shares held by insiders.
    At 20.5 per share, insiders hold 24.3B of Microsoft.

    http://screencast.com/t/OajkiKUar

    See attached screencast. Gates sold off almost $180M the last several days, that is .8% of all of the insider held. That sure seems like a lot to me….

    In fact check this other article, i guess Gates has been on a rampage since April, selling $400M of stock….perhaps even selling it to Microsoft itself probably at an attractive price, at least so that the selling pressure on the open market didnt drive the price down.

    http://www.streetinsider.com/13Gs/Does+Bill+Gat

  • lester

    Wow, DKS up 6% AH. Wish I had long that one

  • Royal With Cheese

    Mole .. Buddah bar is dead like DEAD !! Out of fashion..
    How long haven't you been in Paris ?? 4 years ?? 5 years ??
    I'll update on some cool places when you come over !;)

    Cheers

  • Graphite

    I noticed the /ES bouncing toward the upper end of a daily channel before I headed out for some errands, so I set a limit sell at 914.00 with a stop at 915.00 and of course the afternoon's high print was … 915.00. LOL. Ah well, sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar, well, eats you.

  • innatedc

    Here! Here! Let me at em, boss…let me at em. Nobody messes with our Angels…..!!

  • annamall

    Awesome Jeff Mackey just said not to buy HPQ till it got to 30$$ Thanks Jeff. BTW BAC is diluting(selling) more shares @ 10.00 10% below where is closed today! nice.

  • Count_de_Monee

    He's back, which according to our faithful indicators means we're about to have a big drop :-)

  • Earl of Subway

    I feel a lot better now. My shorts are in less agony. I think I bought them at the wrong time. Seemed brilliant then.

    I watched Zero & Zero-Lite unfold all day, and passed on the Going Long indication. I had a mess of shorts, and if having them was indeed brilliant, then adding longs would be stupid. Or something like that. Plus, sometimes the Zeros change their mind. It happens.

    I saw the Zero-Lite divergence develop, and if not for that I would have had to dump the shorts as everything else seemed to point to another end of day rally, and I can only take so much pain.

    I kinda fought with the Zeros today, playing the other said, but it came out ok. Someone doesn't like the Zeros?

  • annamall

    only the morons Earl!

  • Count_de_Monee

    Not really. Je parle très bien francais Monsieur le Mole.
    Noblesse oblige.

  • annamall

    I got him. wow what a psycho!

  • Count_de_Monee

    Really, Buddah is dead? I was there what, 4 years ago, and it seemed to be rocking.
    The ambiance was cool although the prices were way overboard.

  • annamall

    yea it does, If we could get a decent drop I could hire a puppy sitter good $$$$ to spoil my 15 yo Lasa Apso. He has to be carried everywhere almost since he is blind.

  • Fujisan

    Hey, K, did you short GS today?

  • BearsRus

    So Mole,
    When are the Evil.Rat and Resident.Evil Weekly performances being updated?

    Greetings,

  • Graphite

    BTW today's action in /ES paints a very pretty 76.4% retrace of the decline from the highs at 930

  • annamall

    ahhh a white knight!

  • tranchefoot

    a propos (since everyone is french today),

    fascinatinng chart and table from Barry:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/sp500-rall

  • lester

    RePost

    Wow, DKS up 6% AH. Wish I had lthat one in my portfolio (or pants).

  • Graphite

    Probably driven by 10,000% YoY gain in profits from sales of guns & ammo ….

  • Royal With Cheese

    Yes.. Buddah is out of fashion now.. Prices are still overborad but I “don't count the Monee” !! 😉

  • Fujisan

    Thanks. This is exactly what I'm talking about.

  • BalaB

    That's kind of comical. In every major city there is a “Buddha” bar. And each of those Buddha bars have been “over” / past their hay-day, etc for at least 4 years.

    😉

  • Trader Jose

    Go Redwings!

  • BalaB

    $SOX continue to power house it up.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    None of this will matter.. They all will go back up again.. See what happened to SPG and others in the CRE sector… They are way way up above where they made their offerings.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    The sell off in last few minutes gives me a sense that someone knew something about HPQ earnings release…. AH see that AAPL is actually up and so are few other NQ components.. whereas Q's are down more than half a percent.. This tells me that the dump in last few minutes already priced in the HPQ bomb.

  • dreadwin

    First time post — this blog is always a good read (even if I often don't agree), especially the comments too! Don't let the haters keep you down!

  • JohnyWalker

    I dont know a put from a call. But its interesting that Mole mentions his puts went nowhere on the drop a buddy who is into options tells me that when you see that happen its a sign not to take the move too serious. I am going to mention my count again which is that this morning we put in the peak of an A wave and tonight ” we may have ” or ” tommorrow will ” put in the bottom of a b wave in an expanded flat for a wave 2 correction. The implication of this is that we will put in a double top to slightly higher c wave before some decent tankage. I mention this quietly as it is not the primary count being bandied about here and wondered what other wavers thought of it.

    today sure as hell doesnt feel motive but i cant be sure what the heck its correcting. Logically the possibilities are :

    1) Wave 1 of of the 876 ( es ) low is being corrected.
    2) Wave 1 down of the high is being corrected.

    The qqqqs seem hell bent on making their way towards a retest of the channel they fell out of and banks are surely showing the 5 pound bag cant hold 10 pounds of crap So im sort of leaning towards the expanded flat idea.

    Anybody got thoughts ?

  • nummy

    so oil has poked it's head above 60 finally. tomorrow crude inventories out … and hopefully the data will disappoint and oil will retrace some (maybe s&p too). i picked up some DTO after hours @ 122. chart up DTO. it's made a nice double bottom @ 120. if oil tanks tomorrow hopefully the market in general will correlate. but who knows, we are in bizarro world.

  • katzo7

    OMG, I hope no one starts impersonating me. Just think, having two of me around? Oh fuck!

  • Keirsten

    I'm only short a smidgen on GS at this point on the chart Fuji. If it breaks below the low of today then I'll pyramid in further. That monster has whipped me around like an umbrella in a hurricane lately.

    Did you go short the Qs?

  • katzo7

    See above Anna, I am good!

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole has always said “Dont trade the news” – I am learning that lesson. Today morning I was tempted to hold onto my short positions after the bad housing number.. I said “NO” I will stick to my plan… good.. I got out then

    Now after financials were selling off AH, I was tempted to smoke a puff or two (1 puff = 500 shares) of FAZ… but was reminded of that “continental airlines” chart that mole posted a few days back reminding me “NOT to trade the news”… And guess what the financials have returned back to where they closed… well.. almost…

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    If small caps can rally over night, then Q's should also be in green by the time we open…

  • katzo7

    Sorry charlie, we goin' down!

  • itsgold

    got my QQQQ puts today. According to the hourly SPY and QQQQ charts, RSI is overbought short term.

    I'm wishing I didn't get shaken out of my SPY puts earlier today. Oh well, live and learn.

    Good luck all.

  • Graphite

    Heh there's a Buddha Bar in Chinatown (SF) where some of my trader coworkers & I play liar's dice at the end of the week.

  • mrclam

    i'm not sure if he slowed down the pace of his selling when the downturn started, but i used to see him sell a million shares every few days pretty frequently. i'mguessing hes just trying to lower his exposure to msft's price without affecting the price of the stock too much.

  • Fujisan

    I know, it hurts – ouch! I was tempted to short it, but then again, it was too close to May 6 high and I was afraid that it could take it all the way, so I couldn't pull the trigger. I would do the same – if it goes lower than today's low, I wil start loading up some shorts, but I'm also looking into much weaker ETFs like XHB, RTH, XLE – the ones that didn't retrace more than 50%. I may join you on GS. Any banking stocks coming to your mind?

  • annamall

    Its time! :-)

  • ropey

    Simply fact – the VIX got killed today so your premiums were going to get nailed. However on the flipside when the market does tank properly and fear comes back they'll go up very nicely.
    VIX weekly 200ma is right around the 26-27, i think they can squeeze a bit out of this before the serious dump on the market hits..although mole has kindly pointed out we lept out of the BB so expecting a retrace of sorts tomorrow…still i'm hoping the big dump coincides 930-940/200ma/backside trendtest and so on but feeling that its now on too many radars….will be interesting to see..

  • ropey

    Don't fight the annamall!!!

  • Squidman

    Hey, I can do that! About what I said earlier. Fuggedaboutit. They'll never get me down.

  • Squidman

    Like I said, freed of their restraint, her breasts dropped like hanged men!

  • C.C. Rider

    Inverse Head and shoulders playing out here.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/texana44/fo

  • molecool

    No, the move I referred to happened within like 5 minutes. VIX was not dropping – it was actually rising from today's low (but still closing below the lower BB). So, this was pure MM fuckery.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Bears haven't learnt their lesson – today was merely consolidation.. We are making a run to 930 tomorrow.

  • C.C. Rider

    Immovable object( bear case)or irresistable force(bull case)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=1&

  • salvadorveiga

    weekends

  • Count_de_Monee

    Hear, hear!

  • salvadorveiga

    hes been selling the shares for the past year since he quit MSFT….

    check http://www.finviz.com and you have the whole historical sales he usally sells somehwre between 70-200 M per day

  • Anonymous

    CC,
    Great calls so far. I don’t disagree with 970, but for goodness’ sake, can you please explain how that picture is a ‘head and shoulders’ ? I mean, that is one odd-shaped human being ;-).. sorta like Gollum in Lord of the Rings.

    -T_dub

  • katzo7

    Love when you talk that way, makes me even more convinced.
    No, your calls have been pretty good MLMT. I just disagree with this one.
    Volume is non-existent.

    BUT I TRADE THE CHARTS.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/
    I can't get this one out of my head S&P-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6RDTF3TFWE&feature=related

  • JohnyWalker

    Ok, i accept that its ( 200 day ) obvious but it was also obvious at 1435 too but it still did the trick. As for the Dow anybody note that its recent top was the 200 month movin average on the monthly? It also marked the intermediate top during the depression to ( thats reaching a bit i know ).

  • disrespekt

    I would be VERY careful attempting to follow EW or technical analysis in a depleting commodity. Oil is past-peak. If the idiots on TV actually got the recovery and new growth they are calling for, there ISN'T ENOUGH oil supply to support it. This is the fundamental flaw in any V bottom theory.

  • katzo7

    You need a pic?I've got a good one!

  • Keirsten

    Off the top of my head for those that might have enough meat on them would be PNC, BOH and NTRS. I haven't charted any of them honestly or done any DD, so I have no idea where they stand on their respective charts. RKH might make a good clean play? I'll say this much: I'm looking at a pile of broken charts this afternoon- some look like shorts, but with mixed confirmations. We might be looking at a fairly nice stock picking range right here for both longs and shorts. It's been so long I'm not sure if I can remember how to do it! HA! (kidding)

  • katzo7

    I've always thought polygamy was worthy.

  • katzo7

    He's from Jersey. I know that type.

  • katzo7

    I like that, connard.

  • yazzer

    T-minus 9 minutes! See and listen here: http://mfile.akamai.com/18569/live/reflector:59

  • jacksoo

    Spare us a thought, some places have already had 300mm (12″ for you non-metric types) in the last 24 (one place 430mm) and apparently the worst is yet to come. Sure glad this is the dry season down here 😉

    TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
    for Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds
    For people in the Southeast Coast District, the Wide Bay and Burnett district
    south of Sandy Cape, and the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district east of
    Dalby.
    Issued at 5:10 am on Wednesday 20 May 2009

    Synoptic Situation:
    A strong upper low will move across southern Queensland during the next few
    days. As it moves eastward, this system will intensify a surface trough about
    the southern coast.

    Areas of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue about
    the Southeast Coast district, the southern Wide Bay and Burnett district, and
    the eastern Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Localised flash flooding is
    expected in the areas of heavier rain.

    Flooding in coastal streams and rivers is also likely, and a separate flood
    warning is current for coastal streams between Noosa and Coolangatta, extending
    inland to the ranges.

    Damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h are likely to develop about the coast
    and exposed inland areas later today and tomorrow.

    Ocean waves and swells are expected to increase further during the week about
    the southern coast. Dangerous beach conditions are expected late in the week.
    The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

    · avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters
    · seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees
    · secure loose outdoor items
    · beware of fallen trees and powerlines

  • BalaB

    Did anyone else here trade the morning / open session? Mole, I know you did.
    I was just going over it and that was not an easy tape to trade.

    Makes you really miss the rally.

  • BalaB

    Good man. A little 'runner's high' did you good, huh?

  • http://forkoholic.com Forkoholic

    Elliott Wave Forkology “Where We are” May 19th update
    Looking at our current EWF count on SPX daily, we notice minimum objective has been completed as we have reached median line of (Oct07, Mar08, May08) fork in early May. Maximum objective for this Wave 4 is upper fork channel line, plus sometimes Wave 4s can poke out a bit. As of today upper fork line is at about 993 and dropping. Notice previous Wave 4 topped in January 2009 and did not go for Max Objective.

    Tomorrow May 20th should be an interesting day as many different cycles indicate some sort of a turn possible. Also our expert Nymologyst confirms a Big Move is possible in 1-2 days.
    http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com

  • Count_de_Monee

    You can always use that to piss off any frenchman. Works great, but you have to throw in the Gallic shrug with enough disdain implicit in your tone.

    If that doesn't work, you can always go for the jugular with the mom reference.

    Ta mère est une saloppe, connard. (translation: your mom's a whore, asshole)

  • BearsRus

    Yes, but last week's performance hasn't been updated yet..

  • katzo7

    So how is the weather out there Jasksoo?

  • rhae

    I do not see how anyone can predict the future……… Ya seen what happened with India… which had nothing to do with our markets

  • jacksoo

    Here's the way to rally the mkts – lower expectations to zero – most everyone beats and hey presto a rally ensues – no worries.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    EUR-USD chart … currently at the bottom of the nice up channel… the expected move from here is towards upside of the channel… this means that the downside should be almost over for the night and the futures should go up from here. I still see 920+ on the cards tomorrow based on the action in USD… The oil report coming out should be a critical factor… Financials IMO should recover and XLF should start its march back towards $13+

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mylifemytrade/f

    Just waiting for 940-950 so that I can short the hell out

  • jacksoo

    LOL – always wanted a lake in the garden.

  • jacksoo

    Spoke to soon – just lost all power – fortunately I run internet on 3G wireless – -got about 2 hours battery life on MacBook plus can pinch daughters battery – hey, just come back on….could be an awkward few days me thinks….

  • katzo7

    I do concede MLMT, you have the one variable that I am not sure about.

  • LostIllini

    Good luck with that (sincerely), I live in Florida and know how much living after a hurricane sucks. The Hurricane itself is kinda neat, the next 3 weeks blow though. It could be worse I could live in a non presidential swing state like Louisana though.

    Have you given any thought to coffee? That's a tough hill to climb in the am.

  • Squidman

    I just revisited it again and I'll be damned if I know how you two saw that imminent spike. Not clear to me at all.

  • LostIllini

    Katzo you left out that beautiful weekly chart with the stoch turning down and that great big giant gap in the MACD which needs to thin if not turn…I'm thinking weeks of lower highs and lower lows. See you at 874 (my confirmation of the downtrend).

  • jacksoo

    Thx Lost – -stacks of coffee – lifeblood when I'm pulling all nighters trading. The weather experts say what we're seeing is very rare, at least this time of year, and is a string of ECLs (east coast lows) which are effectively low level cyclones – -not the powerful winds (Cat 5 etc) but day after day of heavy rain, thunder storms and rising tidal waters. You're probably right about the after effects – i think after 48 hours of continual rain the fun will wear off. Funny to think that only last year QLD was in the midst of a 10yr drought and dams were down to ~10% capacity – global warming or just seasonal (30 yr) weather changes – who the hell knows.

  • BalaB

    It certainly was not a clear spike / directional push. We had 2 fake outs before a 3rd move finally took hold.

    After watching open after open after open, I got a little more adjusted as to how they tend to play out.

  • Fubar1951

    The SOH is a fun blog. TK is very bright. But, the Evil Speculator is the place to come for some good, straight forward TA. This is the most useful sight I check. Thanks.
    Some ideas on these charts would be insightful. BAC, C, SOHU, AKAM, AMAT, SMH, JOSB,V, AXP, and 100's of others just like them. My question is: is it to early to call these potential bear flags?

  • JohnyWalker

    Yeah or just give GS a few billion of tax payers money with instructions to buy the es at every 50% retrace to the downside. Both seem to work well.

  • Osso

    Question for Zero users/fans:
    Whenever mkt opens with gap…any way…..I guess an ETA or maybe VTA triggers…..do you instantly trigger the trade….or…??
    Another Q….(related to Q1)….Is there a time-rule (sort of “1st. 30 min.) for not trading, when mkt. starts…???? irrespective of Zero signals..???
    Sorry if this is an “evil” issue…….and….tks

  • Macrawn

    Yup it recently formed a bull flag and broke up from there. It's going higher and that will push commodities and stocks up.

  • jacksoo

    for sure – but filter it through AIG of course, spread around the rest of the banks – pump up the price, off load new shares and hey presto

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    In case you have not seen this post by Neely:

    http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=a

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    C'mon … every dip has been bought.. why wouldn't this one be bought…. look for financials and energy to move things up again tomorrow. Oil is above 60.. but the commodity sector as well as other energy sector stocks havent even touched the highs they touched when oil was a few bucks lower.. Look for this to be corrected soon (= this week). I will look to go long on any dip tomorrow .. and be that way till dollar index touches 80.

    ________________________________

  • katzo7

    yeah.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Thanks for pointing out the Finviz,

    Yahoo, states Gates has around 780,000,000 shares, still

    He has been liquidating around 270,000 shares….per calendar day on average over the last year, but they come in lumps.

    Nice income, he has averaged $6.3M per day over the last year, however, he has averaged more like $40M per day over the last 10 trading days.

    So at 600% to 700% increase compared to average, I still propose that is significant. I wonder if he has any insider knowledge? :)

    http://screencast.com/t/YDAMcXSeV

    Steven Olsen — President
    Pacific Energy Strategies LLC

    94-1093 Hanauna St
    Waipahu, HI 96797

    Office (808) 671-5566
    Fax (808) 678-1475

    http://www.pacfreehotwater.com
    http://www.pacific-energy.com

  • katzo7

    I'll vote for that, Lost.

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, K. I will look into it.

  • BalaB

    “Whenever mkt opens with gap…any way…..I guess an ETA or maybe VTA triggers…..do you instantly trigger the trade….or…??” – No….Best to wait and see where the tape goes. Give it time for the market to adjust (but not too long)

  • Keirsten

    Excellent charting there MLMT. :-) Have you looked at the daily chart though? Not sure it didn't put in a double top there recently. A third knock on that door would certainly be bullish though. Doesn't matter to me either way as I'm trading around with both long and short positions, but I thought I'd share some additional longer time frames and patterns. Pretty interesting the way BAC bounced off its 20 EMA during AH to go back up.

    http://tinyurl.com/p5moqz

    And then the USD/JPY:

    $USD: This is where it gets muddy. A break below the blue line and game over for the bears, and you might as well buy every commodity you can get your greedy little hands on.

    http://tinyurl.com/r7hrhp

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Mole, you have my utmost respect for what you do here.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    which variable?

  • innatedc

    AZO update….up $5.28 from entry (which was 156)….moved stop to 157. Can I get a point up please, I think I've earned it……
    UPDATED CHART
    http://www.screencast.com/users/innatedc/folder

  • Anonymous

    I’ve just started visiting your site few days ago and I’m VERY VERY impressed with your analysis to say the least.
    The only thing which bothers me in the my bearish position is CPCE climbing higher meaning that not everyone is bullish enough.

  • innatedc

    Nice work Keirsten. That USD falling wedge looks an awful lot like the VIX wedge…both ready to pop to the upside…..we hope….

  • Keirsten

    Indeed Inna- and I gave you props up above on AZO. Methinks you tamed the beast! 😉

  • BaldEagle

    Don't listen to those swagger jacking complainers, mole. Keep up the good work

  • BalaB

    'Thems some nice looking charts' +1

  • jpt123

    Forgive the noob query, what charting software are you using to display the put spread?

  • mrclam

    the dollar

  • Keirsten

    Hey Inna- one more thing- was that a bad tick on first candle on the 11th? If so, looks an awful lot like an inverted H&S formed there in the last several days? Wouldn't THAT be sweet?

  • rhae

    S&P 500, I think if the top is in … price will work it's way down to 800… one way or the other…

    http://screencast.com/t/OH0YBmvt

  • rhae

    says file damaged :-(

  • rhae

    I like to watch volume thru the gap… that usually gives an idea how hard it will be to fill

    weak volume usually fills easier, strong volume might take much longer and super strong volume, damn thing may not even fill and turn to a trend day… just imo of course

  • BalaB

    That's good stuff Rhae….Thx +1

  • kinihepu

    Don't remember who posted this guy last week, but he's great. Maybe he's on the list.

    In this video he gives some good pointers of how tomorrow might set up starting with the FTSE.

    http://www.viddler.com/explore/RoySi/videos/138/

  • PortisHead

    Think or Swim

  • rhae

    I do not think it is to early to use the word potential… But the actual trade comes down to your risk tolerance… most of those are near a trend line… so for a better risk factor you could wait for the bust… I like the looks of JOSB… those open gaps below should get some pull…

    http://screencast.com/t/t5LE2lDQlDN

    all assuming price does not blast of the top of the chart…
    and I am sure everyone knows this… think Market, Sector, Stock… in that order… don't want some nit wit analylist ungrading retail

  • rhae

    nice chart… could happen… of course I have my own idea's… lol
    chart above, someplace

  • jacksoo

    bit of a mad few hours – schools being evacuated in some areas because flooding surrounding them, motorways cut, bridges cut, trees down – just picked up my kids (mountain top in hinterland) bloody bedlum.

  • dullmind

    Is it just me, or does this chart show the US Dollar making a head and shoulders top?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=4&g

    If anyone can't see this, will create a pic, post it…..some where.

  • JohnyWalker

    Thats a good count he has on the FTSE.

  • C's & 3's

    I think wave C of 4 comes soon. Marginal new follows and the payoof we've beem looking for.

  • Ashok

    Hello mole…………….like your observation on the VIX………you have a wonderful site here !

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I see that too with an immediate target of 80.. and then further lower…

    ________________________________

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I did look at the daily chart and I do share your concerns (from a bullish point of view). I think the USD chart you posted is very compelling. I heard someone say that EWI also said that near term target for /DX (or USD index) is 80.

    ________________________________

  • http://rollinglines.blogspot.com rollinglines

    good chart on VIX

    it's a down day tomorrow for me. Update the idea on rollinglines.blogspot.com

  • itsonlypaper

    Hey, Sir mole,
    Keep up the good work.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Nice chart! and you indicators are not divergent…beautiful. As I remember, short interest was huge on this stock, havent checked lately.
    ++

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Hey Mole, I been hawking financial sites since before BLOGS were even BLOGS and yours is the best by an order of magnitude compared to all others (except TK which is in your class, but the techinical discussion here is higher level, for sure). How about I sign up for the zero even I cant day trade, just to pay for your posted charts? PS its a bitch to daytrade in Hawaii, got to wake at 2:30, get your head screwed on straight, and get ready –the positioning int he first 2 hours seems make a huge difference in profitability. I have done it, but it get pretty harsh with also running a solar company.

    Steve

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Eh one thought on your Zero dlimena….

    if you give it away free…people consider it worthless.

    if you charge for it….people expect perfection….

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Dont tell me tomorrow that i did not warn ya earlier…. spx takes ou 930 tomorrow.. currency action paving the way…

  • djgrind

    It is…and afterward I would recommend “Pink Paradise” 😉

  • katzo7

    Wow, the weather sounds wild. BE SAFE JACKSOO. Let us know when the wildness
    stops.

  • katzo7

    Nice, thanks.

  • katzo7

    Nice job inna. +1

  • katzo7

    Get up you guys. Time for research. How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat? LOL

  • K.I.M.

    And I thought it was a bitch to trade right after job. Respect man.

  • onorio

    katzo do you sleep? :-)

    i don`t like this tape, even with futes dropping.

    DAX keep making higher highs, FTSE made a triple top, only SPY keeps at 20pts of may highs…

  • katzo7

    I know, we may have some shit to go through until June. Wish the dollar
    would move to the upside.
    I sleep well, from 10 PM until 3-5 am in the morn. This is my research time.

  • Squidman

    Didn't your hear, Timmay says the banking recovery is going “swimmingly”.

  • katzo7

    And what about you? Why are you up? Where are you located?

  • Squidman

    You should visit more and chime in–good to see you

  • katzo7

    I wish someone would go in and put the cuffs on all of them. Hook them up. What would that do to the market?
    LOL
    And you are the smartest man around. Basically, you can have your cake and eat it to if you know what I mean. Sorry!
    There was just a study done. They interviewed men and 90% said the ideal state for a man was unmarried. And 90% of the women said the ideal state for a woman was married. Therein lies the difference.
    Now me, I am happily married (don't even think about going back and throwing some of my comments back in my face) and have to say that. As they say, past performance . . . . .

  • Blind_Squirrel

    (don't even think about going back and throwing some of my comments back in my face) and have to say that. As they say, past performance . . . . .

    If I did that the site would crash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • onorio

    I`m in Portugal, i`ve markets open since EU open at 8am till US close at 9pm.

    all day party :)

  • Squidman

    Just lucky (so far). What is the US dollar symbol for prophet please?

  • katzo7

    I don't use prophet. Is it /dx OR $DX
    or DXY?

  • alphahorn

    Good morning all, i still suspect this markets wants to touch its 200 day MA before it dies, and there is so much resistance at that point it sets up for a massive rejection. In the near term, I believe the 20 day MA is critical, and I wouldn't be surprised if it acts as the support to catapult the SPX up to 930-5 area. If it breaks through the 20 day, then we might be on to something more significant

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • innatedc

    Sorry I'm late with response….the answer is I'm not sure if that was a bad tick on the 11th…it wouldn't surprise me…

  • katzo7

    Wow, the weather sounds wild. BE SAFE JACKSOO. Let us know when the wildness
    stops.

  • katzo7

    Nice, thanks.

  • katzo7

    Nice job inna. +1

  • katzo7

    Get up you guys. Time for research. How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat? LOL

    Futes started strong when I got up at 5 am but now seem to be drip, drip, dripping lower.
    I can't get enough of this guy.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRuY49nXgA8&feat
    My wife called me compulsive because of listening to him over and over. Is that a bad thing?

  • K.I.M.

    And I thought it was a bitch to trade right after job. Respect man.

  • Onorio

    katzo do you sleep? :-)

    i don`t like this tape, even with futes dropping.

    DAX keep making higher highs, FTSE made a triple top, only SPY keeps at 20pts of may highs…

  • katzo7

    I know, we may have some shit to go through until June. Wish the dollar
    would move to the upside. I would rather have had a 5-6 SPX fute that dripped off to 9:30 am than this I think.
    I sleep well, from 10 PM until 3-5 am in the morn. This is my research time.

  • Squidman

    Didn't your hear, Timmay says the banking recovery is going “swimmingly”.

  • katzo7

    And what about you? Why are you up? Where are you located?

  • Squidman

    You should visit more and chime in–good to see you

  • katzo7

    I wish someone would go in and put the cuffs on all of them. Hook them up. What would that do to the market?
    LOL
    And you are the smartest man around. Basically, you can have your cake and eat it too if you know what I mean. Sorry!
    There was just a study done. They interviewed men and 90% said the ideal state for a man was unmarried. And 90% of the women said the ideal state for a woman was married. Therein lies the difference.
    Now me, I am happily married (don't even think about going back and throwing some of my comments back in my face) and have to say that. As they say, past performance . . . . .

  • Blind_Squirrel

    (don't even think about going back and throwing some of my comments back in my face) and have to say that. As they say, past performance . . . . .

    If I did that the site would crash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Onorio

    I`m in Portugal, i`ve markets open since EU open at 8am till US close at 9pm.

    all day party :)

  • Squidman

    Just lucky (so far). What is the US dollar symbol for prophet please?

  • katzo7

    I don't use prophet. Is it /dx OR $DX
    or DXY?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Good morning all, i still suspect this markets wants to touch its 200 day MA before it dies, and there is so much resistance at that point it sets up for a massive rejection. In the near term, I believe the 20 day MA is critical, and I wouldn't be surprised if it acts as the support to catapult the SPX up to 930-5 area. If it breaks through the 20 day, then we might be on to something more significant

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • innatedc

    Sorry I'm late with response….the answer is I'm not sure if that was a bad tick on the 11th…it wouldn't surprise me…

  • http://www.nirmanbroking.com/Commodity/CommodityHome.aspx Commodity Market

    Very good post, I was really searching for this topic, as I wanted this topic to understand completely and it is also very rare in internet, that is why it was very difficult to understand.
    Thank you for sharing this.
    regards:
    commodity market