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October 2, 2017

Weekend From Hell

I am still trying recover from what gradually turned into the weekend from hell. Over here in Europe independentistas in Catalonia facing off against by Spanish police forces, attempting to stop what it considers an illegal election, turned into a major skirmish which left hundreds injured and an entire nation in political turmoil. Meanwhile in France an Islamic terrorist stabbed and killed two women with a knife at a train station in Marseille before being tackled by another woman (respect!) and eventually shot and killed by security forces. Not to miss out on all the havoc an ISIS supporter in Edmonton, Canada ran over a police officer with a truck and then jumped out of the [...]

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September 29, 2017

The Final Stretch

I don’t know about you guys but I’m definitely ready for October and what hopefully will turn into a solid earning season. It’s not that I don’t enjoy bearish tape but let’s be honest, August and September have been huge disappointments for the bears since the onset of QE. Now that it’s officially being shut down and rate hikes supposedly are on the horizon (I see it when I believe it) the grizzlies may have better luck next year. To me of course it’s all the same – up or down – I simply trade the tape that I am being handed.

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August 11, 2017

Harden The F### Up

Today’s post is dedicated to Scott Phillips, our resident enforcer and part time debt collector, who seems to have caught a bad break after what appears to have been a series of hare-brained decisions involving a mysterious Asian flu strain, mixed with over training, which was then exacerbated by excessive consumption of some long expired low cost GMO protein powder and unlabeled pain killers he found in some dirty dumpster around the corner. All of which combined of course put him straight in the ICU with acute kidney failure just a few days later. He’s actually lucky that he’s 10,000 km away as I feel tempted to personally come down and take him out of his misery [...]

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August 10, 2017

Keep Your Powder Dry

Considering that equities are still trading a bagel throw away from all time highs it was fascinating to observe a 28% rise in implied volatility over the past week. Now I concede that current levels are probably more in line with where the VIX should be given that we’re heading into a seasonally bearish market period of the year. August has acquired a bit of notoriety over the years due to a handful of negative outliers, however on average it is September and not August that you should be worried about (see Tuesday’s post on the subject).

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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