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Caveat Ursi 3.0
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Caveat Ursi 3.0

by The MoleAugust 5, 2009

As you are probably aware I have long been keen on learning more about the inner workings pertaining to the NY Fed’s repo auctions and I have occasionally reported on the slosh available to preferred primary dealers. After a very pertinent article posted by ZH earlier this week I carefully combed through the recent POMO calendar, which due their traditional rarity I had foolishly ignored for several months now, and to my surprise arrived at highly interesting results:

Coincidence? You be the judge of that – I however took the liberty to highlight and mark each day a POMO operation was held. Quoting the article:

[Permanent Open Market Operations] are conducted from about 10:30am to 11:00am on pre-announced days. In such auctions, the FRNY permanently purchases Treasury securities from selected dealers, with the total purchase amount for a day ranging from about $1.5 B to $7.5B. These days are highly correlated with paint-the-tape closes, with the theory being that the large institutions that receive capital injections are able to leverage this money by 100 to 500 times and then use it to ramp equities.

Here is the current tentative treasury operation schedule (i.e. POMO auctions):

Please note that the next two operations (auctions) are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday. I am not hundred percent sure that this schedule only refers to POMO auctions – if someone in the know could confirm this I’d appreciate it.

If we get a gap to the downside in the morning I suggest you use it to close your short and grab long positions. I usually get an email after the completion of the auction – if the operation has been postponed I will report it here immediately.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ropey

    Nice info – thanks again for providing an alternative insight to market pump jobs

  • standard_and_poor

    Intermediate term still bullish but risk for bulls in shorter term is increasing.

    Sometimes the space between price points is more important than the trend
    just as sometimes the space between notes is more important than the notes themselves, e.g.:
    “So What” by Miles Davis –
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEC8nqT6Rrk

  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Excellent info, thanks.

    FYI, ZH link in sidebar still links to blogspot not the new site.

  • molecool

    Fixed – thanks.

  • mabman

    zerohedge just had an article on this the other day.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gra

  • EDC

    what a circle jerk… buy this, repo that, cash for trash… and that is all what is left to my unborn unthought of kids.

  • bevets

    Awesome read. And thanks Mole for the great educational post.

  • breakthru

    The conclusion of the POMO paper at Zerohedge recommends watching for a failed POMO paint the tape at the close on Wednesday. “While equities and Treasuries can both advance or decline in semi-lock-step temporarily, even for as long as a week, a move that strong in Treasuries through resistance requires a hit to equities, and we would expect a moderate to strong down move into next Monday (August 9) if Treasuries were able to end up pushing through the early July highs…. we are currently leaning toward a nervous Bernanke and the need to ramp Treasuries at the expense of equities into August 9. Equities have had more than a nice run and can suffer a bit of a correction. Key will be watching the close on Wednesday. A failed POMO paint the tape close could signal that an equities correction of at least a few weeks has gotten underway.”

  • PeterK80

    Wow… thats all I can say. Makes me think I should buy a bunch of commodity stocks and TK's lottery picks and say F it.

    The lack of interest from foreign investors in our bonds has to end this game at some point. The August bond auctions mentioned in the ZH article from Aug 10th to Aug 14th will be interesting. This cant end well… all I keep thinking in my head is “currency collapse”.

  • OldManRiver

    The allegation here is that the $1.5 billion to $7.5 billion in open market operations–basically providing liquidity to the primary dealers–is used to ramp equities. This would follow the behavior of any “Plunge Protection Team.”

    What Bruce Krasting and Karl Denninger have been pointing out is the flip side of the coin: that the primary dealers may well cause a plunge in equities in order to create a “flight to safety.” In this way, the Fed is able to artificially create demand for government issues, particularly the 30-Year auction scheduled for next week.

    The recommendation that “If we get a gap to the downside in the morning I suggest you use it to close your short and grab long positions” may be well-intentioned for tomorrow but it may well prove counterproductive if you believe, as I do, that the Primary Dealers will be called on to protect the falling USD and the fragile US bond market.

  • PeterK80

    I just read that whole article on ZH… these auctions are getting progressively worse and something has to give. I wonder what Mole's thought sare on the upcoming auctions and how they relate to tomorrow and Thursday's scheduled POMO days.

  • http://www.gamingthemarket.com/ gamingthemarket

    Nice work Mole. Last week gave some good strangle type plays on TBT/TLT. They had clear consolidation areas (30mins prior) that one could place a resting buy/stop order above. So not knowing which way they'd go the resting order catches the momentum at 1pm as the auction happens.

  • steveo77

    The Iron Eagle….a chart of the USD

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/iron-ea

  • steveo77

    I think they ramp up the index more…JSP about ready to jump in with both feet. However, I can take some short pain in order to not miss the blow off top….IMHO….
    USD may be ready to run with 5% dollar bulls….95% would be on the wrong side.

  • jonsjon

    The “trend is your friend” becomes “The FED is your friend”

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Interesting chart from Kenny's site. These are turn dates in SPX. Today is one.

    http://screencast.com/t/m9ABuPqVE

  • steveo77

    I wonder why recent data points are not included? 8-11- is my birthday

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Funny – I just did the same yesterday. Don't forget that when there are two POMOs in a row the second doesn't usually amount to much movement. Also I suspect that things behave differently depending on the vintages of bonds being purchased. As people start to front-run this phenomenon, it might lead to some decent short scalps as well.

  • onorio

    Closed EUR/USD short @ 1.4380

    I will try to short between 1.4460 or 1.4500 were i expect to finish this 5th wave

  • KidDisco

    who's kenny? this man looks smart.

  • toneloc

    Stephen Puetz author of The Unified Cycle Theory has done extensive research on the correlation of panic phases in the market. One such panic phase starts Aug 6 and runs to Aug 20. They correlate on the 1st full moon after a solar eclipse and end with the next new moon. They don't always work but the last one would have and they especially where accurate during the 1929 cycle. In fact 5 of the panic phases would have produced great results.

  • Iguanadon

    Kenny uses Elliott Wave Theory primarily. This is his blog. Very good at what he does. That chart above though is one that he posted from someone else as he stated.

    http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    clarify please:
    does this include both manic selling and schizophrenic buying?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    clarify please:
    does this include both manic selling and schizophrenic buying?

  • TexEx

    Wow. This may explain some of the ramp up into yesterday's close. Spot on, mole.

  • toneloc

    This is a sell cycle. Like I said they don't always work but this looks like a good CIT and with the enhanced Panic Cycle I believe it will be down. Also crashes tend to happen in this cycle although not usually in the summer month (but they can). This cycle happens twice a year. Last one was in Feb 09 and you can see what happened in fact it started on Feb 9 and ran untill Feb 25 09

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    well I woke up to a nice surprise… Got the fill at 1.4479 on EUR/USD last night and I'm already up 40 pips, luckily I didnt get stopped out either. Thats a nice way to start the day! Hopefully this will run up today and we can see 1.45+ soon enough

  • toneloc

    David I posted a response below

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Thanks for the link, I had been asking if someone agreed on that count (november being the start of this ABC)´

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SnKwcgyth

    nevertheless I'm currently doubting if things will end now (I'd place his 3 in may, not in june, and vote for an expanding triangle W4 underway)

    Thanks a lot

    p.s. if SSchicken reads this please let me know what you thought of that chart from kenny

  • rajabrooke

    great catch mole, did note it from ZH but never put it to charts.U saved my sanity as well as my faith in the markets. broker from asian tiger so well used to manipulative markets but never expected it in US to such a large scale.Thought i was losing my touch.All the more reason to stay in cash or take daytrades cause this never repeat never ends well.

  • Iguanadon

    Quote in the article about the ADP number:

    “Transportation saw the most job cuts last month, while layoffs in the telecommunications sector were also high. But layoffs are declining in the auto sector.”

    No shit… there arent' any more auto sector jobs to cut… there are only 7 people left.

  • jayinasia

    Rajabrooke,

    Where in Asia are you? I'd guess M'sia?

  • annamall

    Hey V8 you think the EUR will get to 145 soon?

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    looks to be that way. we need a wave 5 before a pullback. the fact that we havent pulled back much in wave 4 is also pretty bullish

  • annamall

    Ok thank you! I went long the EUR/USD after closing out the short side on a slight dollar bounce. Now let's get to 145 ++++++ :-)

  • Me_XMan

    LOL! 1 mechanic, 1 floor manager, 1 director, 1 VP, 1 COO, 1 CFO, 1 CEO.

  • annamall

    Don't forget the janitor!

  • molecool

    Missed that one last night but I'm glad you kids are having fun with FX. Just always set a stop about one daily ATR away as they can jump against you.

  • thelefteyeguy

    janitor is a temp…

  • AudioTactics

    Just wanted to bring up something interesting about Friday's non-farm payroll number…

    According to Mish Shedlock the Birth Death Model (which estimates the birth or death of businesses in the economy) is re-calibrated during the Jan and July releases. During recessions, he claims it is more likely that businesses are dying rather than being born, however, during the months of Feb – Jun 2009 the Birth Death Model has added some 879k jobs. His point being that these jobs must now be removed during the re-calibration in July. If you look at his data charts (http://tiny.cc/birthdeath) you can see how the adjustment was -356 during Jan 2009 and you can see all of the dubious positive adjustments during Feb – Jun 2009.

    This implies that the non-farm payroll number could be much more negative than expected. According to Bloomberg this morning, their survey is looking for -328k which is already less negative than today's ADP report. Just something to keep in mind…

  • amokta

    this is beyon a joke. lloyds (uk) sp rises 30% since mid-july, lyyods posts 3 bill loss, sp still rises today

  • molecool

    That is what I am trying to accomplish. If retail traders start waking up to this game fewer of us will be the ones who are being short squeezed and profit instead.

    Hey – can you email me at admin at evilspeculator dot com?

  • Douala

    annamall

    Have you checked out the Drudge Report lately? http://www.drudgereport.com/
    The gym [main headline] is only 20mins from where I live. I joined another gym closer to where I live. OMG….no where is safe any more.

  • molecool

    Interesting – can you post a chart with your trade(s)?

  • dollar

    Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of job cuts announced in July spiked 31% to 97,373, bouncing off a 15-month low in June. July marked the first increase in monthly job cuts since January.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/05/news/economy/jo

  • molecool

    If you read the article – there is actually a short term conflict of interest between Bernanke and the NYFR. But good thought – this game is complex indeed.

  • blahblah2

    Anyone know why the Mortgage Brokers Association isn't disclosing their numbers today? From Bloomberg's economic calendar:

    “The purchase index rose 0.9 percent in the July 31 week to an undisclosed level with MBA saying only that it's been little changed over the last three weeks between 260 and 265. Likewise, MBA did not post a level for the refinance index, saying it increased 7.2 percent in the week and is about 35 percent higher than the low in June. Mortgage rates were mostly lower in the week with 30-year loans down 19 basis points to an average 5.17 percent.”

  • Bricks

    Well, futures have already shaken off the ADP numbers and are within a point of yesterday's close. We'll open up and continue this climb. Over half of this morning's earnings announcements were beats (although most of those are below 1 yr ago).

  • Bankrupt

    this market will turn only when close to 99% of investors will be bullish

    since we experienced a thunderstorm in 2008 there are indeed quite a bit bears around

    now when mole is becoming bullish, we are definitely coming pretty close to that 99%

  • dollar

    Repost: Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of job cuts announced in July spiked 31% to 97,373, bouncing off a 15-month low in June. July marked the first increase in monthly job cuts since January.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/05/news/economy/jo

  • molecool

    Yes mabman – it's the article I linked to above.

  • Bankrupt

    yeah so it seems. this only means we go down today.

  • molecool

    Yes, we will be watching for this – the 10th should be very interesting. But until then we might keep crawling higher or at least go sideways. None of us have a crystal ball and the above is obviously tantamount to reading tea leafs – LOL :-)

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    To your point. Still not there.

    http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sen

  • bearmaid

    This market is better than all comedy channels.

  • dollar

    Bullish Percentage on the SPX at new highs?

  • annamall

    I agree Amgrant! :)

  • Douala

    I believe you will this very informative. From Bill Cara about the USD. Also note he believes the S&P will settle at 950 and mid-late Sept to early Oct…. it is Doooooooooooooooooooooown we go! Enjoy and don’t forget to STL
    ~~~~~~~~~~~
    On another matter, I am concerned that too many people are reading so-called “investment” letters that purport to know that the US Dollar is about to crash. To the contrary, I believe that the recent dip below 79 will probably recover the 79 rate and, should global equity prices begin to slide, the $USD could even regain 81 or higher. That’s still not a strong Dollar, but it would be sufficient to hurt traders who are short the Dollar and long commodity prices, including oil, metals and precious metals.

    My view for some time has been that there would be higher equity prices on account of the fact that banks need re-financing, and they are likely to help out their position by promoting the various stock sectors as high as possible. During this time, the Fed has helped by keeping interest rates low despite a tax shortfall and a President who was elected on the promise to cut, not raise, taxes.

    That softness on the Dollar has pushed commodity prices and equity prices very high. Global equity prices have been led higher by international markets like China, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. In a market pull-back, these markets are usually the leaders on the downside as well, which means that money flows back into US Dollars. As the Dollar strengthens, commodity prices also come under pressure; this becomes a self-fulfilling matter, pushing the Dollar even higher.

    With regard to the US Dollar, there will be a G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh on September 24 and 25. The agenda is usually worked out well before that. So, for the next month, I do believe there is a very low probability of a major change in the $USD. I also think there is a better than 50% probability that with consumer spending falling, as seen today with Procter & Gamble and recently with Target, that the US Retailers will pull the S&P back down to test the support at around 950. That kind of move ought to put a floor under the $USD and even give it a boost for a couple weeks.

    In mid to late September or early October, I believe there will be a bigger move in equities to the downside, which would put even more pressure for a higher $USD.

    Interest rates in the US might also start to rise at this time in order to attract foreign investment for the huge Treasury funds that are required, and that could push the Dollar higher.

    Nobody knows of course, but the point is that, based on multiple factors, I believe the $USD will not fall much further here, and is more than likely to hold its ground and gradually move higher. Timing is everything; we are re-evaluating our heavy precious metals position.

  • standard_and_poor
  • Iguanadon

    Banks are rallying? I love this market…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I just saw all the Grandmothers and Grandfathers run down to there brokers to buy.I guess we are getting to a top soon.

  • Bankrupt

    this market can be more irrational than banks can be solvent

  • Bankrupt

    this market will provide them with heart attacks soon enough so there will be savings on pensions and health care

  • Me_XMan

    SPX targeting 1014.

  • rhae

    $VIX stay above 25 today… good for bears

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    That's not to say though that we can't fall off a cliff from here. I don't mean to sound so wishy washy but that's the way I'm looking at things right now.

  • Bear Claw

    lol Big, how true.

  • Bear Claw

    lol Big, how true.

  • rhae

    Todays the day… Bad Moon Rising, Aug 5

  • fuw

    Very strange that the TRIN doesn't seem to be responding at all here.

  • Bankrupt

    you mean 101.4?

  • Bankrupt

    especially with volumes so low. yeah, there is a lot of money on sidelines and will stay there…

  • mrclam

    unless he edited, he said spx and not spy :)

  • Bankrupt

    mole, brother, tell me you aren't long…

  • Scrillhog

    Looks like a short of a few of the commods off the open might be in order. I will short /ZC off the open.

  • fuw

    Mole, sorry for bugging you with this, but why are dots showing up on the zero (above the hourly candles), without a corresponding signal bar? They seem to correspond to signals (having different colours) but no signals are issued.

  • fuw

    Mole, sorry for bugging you with this, but why are dots showing up on the zero (above the hourly candles), without a corresponding signal bar? They seem to correspond to signals (having different colours) but no signals are issued.

  • AudioTactics

    Covered my shorts from last night here for a gain of 0.5%

    If the market can rally from here I will short again around the 1010 level.

    I think we are in an SPX range now of 950 – 1010.

  • Anonymous

    i just started trading fx too…it is the best…

    short AUD/USD – looks toppy on 2-hr/60 min

  • KidDisco

    Amazed that IYR and XLF are holding up in this…
    That can't be good for my puts.

  • dollar

    no one is going to believe this when it goes down

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I don't think i will ever see RIMM go red…..

  • Joe8888

    From the 666 low on the SPX , The first leg up was 137 points to 803, Where the SPX then had a 2 day pullback of around 40 points

    So , if you add the same first leg up of 137 points to the last pivot low of 870 you get 1007 as a target price.

    Witch so far is the high….

    As traders, we look for clues , as to where we turn around, This could be it..

    ….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    HAs this dump break any trendlines?

  • Iguanadon

    There was the correction of the run since March. Hope everyone enjoyed it.

  • Keirsten

    I show us breaking a lower TL established on 7/14, but a bounce so far near the S2 level @ 99.37. A break through that would sure be nice. Give me that teddy bear, will you?

  • shortcover

    agreed…it will take about a 5-10% pull back before there is a inkling of concern. usually happens that way. then when tide changes – either now or in a few weeks – we'll see it in MA crossovers and broken charts. that's when to short or close longs…ie 3Q at the earliest…

  • fuw

    We're still only down 0.8% on the S&P. For a real bear case we need to be able to sustain a steady grind down over an entire day, not just these spikes.

  • GDII

    nothing big. today China is down, so US is going to follow the suit. i don't track chinese market for no reason, especially after i realized i am not qualified to trade in china.
    so far i still believe friday will be the judgment day.

  • Keirsten

    In a “normal” market, that big red, first hour candle would be a sign of a trending day.

  • Keirsten

    So far all the drooling pundits are hinting that the number will be better than expected. Three words I never want to hear again as long as I live.

    Are you still over in China GDII?

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    There are two markets I find hard to trade: slow tape and trend day. I can't bring myself to short after a huge move down like that.

  • Bankrupt

    absolutely. better be 0.8 percent down than up tho

  • Bankrupt

    absolutely. better be 0.8 percent down than up tho

  • annamall

    Picked up JPY @ 94.95

  • Bankrupt

    I see your point, but isn't the whole point in waiting for a top in that at some point there will be a huge move down and then you can short more safely?

    and like someone else said, it wasn't that huge. 10 es points and we climbed up more than 130 in last few weeks.

  • Keirsten

    I used to love to trade a trending day AG, I just don't trust it anymore unless the tape is moving up of course. THEN the trend probably works.

    On a sidenote- best joke of the day: Doug Kass on Twitter: “This is a big IF, but IF the banks reverse we should be down two to three percent today.”

    I want what he's smoking.

  • Bankrupt

    I see your point, but isn't the whole point in waiting for a top in that at some point there will be a huge move down and then you can short more safely?

    and like someone else said, it wasn't that huge. 10 es points and we climbed up more than 130 in last few weeks.

  • Scrillhog

    gapped down, didn't short.

  • fa_q

    I covered 1/4 for 7 points. Still have 1/2 a position plus my IYR (down 50 cents).

  • http://misinheritance.com/ misinheritance

    Great post. Let's make sure to keep an eye on this into Primary 3–I want to be prepared for those 1000 point rallies.

  • bist

    Thanks for the heads up on the ppt purchase schedule. I woke up this morning and saw bac and wfc on a tear which made my stomach turn cause I just sold my call options on them yesterday. This coupled with with uco/erx put purchases yesterday and knowledge that today is a ppt purchase day made my stomach churn. But now market is sinking and I'm taking profits on my uco/erx puts and going long on a bunch of stocks.

    But I'll take my long profits just as quick. From your chart, it looks like the 30th, the 6th, the 9th, the 23rd, and the 30th days were followed by drops.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant
  • Falcon

    AMBG…question…do you ever trade after hours or solely Regular Trading Hours? Uncertain since you use 24 hr charts for your analysis…thanks!

  • annamall

    Watch the UUP or USD if that should break down again, tape will run right back up. I am long EUR/USD short USD/JPY. Currencies are so much better to trade than equities. :)

  • Me_XMan

    ya they're slower than molasses in winter.

  • ropey

    Look at AIG , ABK, MBA – fek..

  • ropey

    That gap on SPY 99 still needs filling, very tempting target…there's another also further down around the 98s

  • Fujisan

    If DavidDT allows me, I see H&S on an hourly chart on most indices.

  • GDII

    yes, especially she hasn't changed her distracting pix for at least 2 weeks.

  • stxinon

    USD fell by 20%
    S&P went up by 50%

    and JPY has proven a point that carry trade can move in for 25 years.
    so what makes you think there is no carry trade that has not started in US$.

    because biggest seller or source of US$ is fed…
    so FED = BEARS in US$
    and they are infinite bears as they have a printing press…

    so US$ based assets are useless due to inflation.
    Other than REITs… (They can hike up rents..)

    So bull market can remain for ever in falling buck times….

  • stxinon

    I am bear by heart….
    I hate to be a bull….
    All the fundamentals are on bear's side….

    but I think dark side has taken me over since 100 DMA was crossed
    and made me a bull….

  • annamall

    aren't they, god I can take lunch, snooze and maybe something else, and it would be about the same in equites. FX rocks!

  • GDII

    the first 30 min bar is about to offset the last 30 min yesterday. if ignoring the 2 bars, i think it is a sign for landing at 995.
    u r asking teddy bear! come on k, u r no longer low maintenance day trader no more. ~_*

  • dollar

    A spike in yields on the 10 yr treasury this morning approaching recent highs may have spooked equities a little – i think a lot of people would grab a 4% 10 yr if it made it there. Yields going back down now, maybe the fed is doing a little early buying before the auction…

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I wouldnt be surprised if we end up green today

  • annamall

    😛 I see you did GDII to a shy bear! How adorable. The claws on that bear are humongus! LOL

  • Keirsten

    I'd just rather be sleeping GD. Mole can tell you, I've been pretty stalwart throughout the game so far. :-) There isn't much that shakes my cage.

  • Scrillhog

    Speaking of AG, look at POT over there breaking 100.

  • annamall

    Kool! It's so fun and so much faster! the signals are clear if you know tech analysis, I am thrilled, I know I won't have a winner every time, but allot is good! 😉

  • annamall

    Me either Candle! the USD falling again.

  • Keirsten

    Who knew? It's over the 200 EMA right here- I'm only waiting to short the daylights out of it when the time comes. :-)

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    AIG? so what news causes this 22% rise? this is all i found

    http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/08/05/aig-sa

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    It's important to me to have a life outside of trading so I restrict myself to regular hours. I do use 24 hour charts though.

  • Trick-Or-Trader

    Be Careful. BKX grinding closer to a new intra day high. Today would be 11 straight higher close. For what its worth – a daily close under 42.25 might give us the SPX break we have all been waiting for.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    You think news causes rises and falls?

    More often these

  • Falcon

    YES! I agree with the need to have a life comment indeed. It does get kind of frustrating lately when it seems that many initiation moves occur overnight and “Da Boyz” leave the slow grinding corrective moves for the day time action. Have you noticed that since March?

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I think when probabilities are stacked in your favor then you trade those probabilities. Probabilities clearly suggest that we get a correction into next week.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Meh – back button accidentally ate that comment. Was just being snarky anyway.

  • indebtwetrust

    Excellent post.

  • indebtwetrust

    Excellent post.