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Ding Ding Ding Dinnggg!
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Ding Ding Ding Dinnggg!

by The MoleMarch 2, 2009

UPDATE 12:00pm EST: I return from breakfast and we are close to the 704 target – nice 🙂

This is what I’m going to do: As we are touching 704 or perhaps hover above it I’m going to wait for the market to accept these levels and hold. Maybe let things settle down for an hour or so. Erik asked me if 650 is a possibility and I think we’ll get there, yes. However, we might not get there in this Minor wave and would have to wait for Minor 5 of (5). If we whipsaw around this level I might actually sell some OTM puts or get into a bull put spread, a more conservative trade.

UPDATE 12:20pm EST: Looks like the market is accepting this price level. I think we might still see 704 on the SPX but it’s not a must. I’m going to watch this for a bit longer though – not just ready to go long here.


About The Author
The Mole

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • Paxromanus

    Mole

    what's your read on the ISEE levels?

    Maximus
    http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
    searching for truth….

  • nyse

    Nice call, homie.

  • MrTrader

    What sort of Bull put spread are you contemplating, spy 80/75, 80/70 … March or April? Ive got orders for March 80/75 w/ 4-1 risk/reward.

  • katzo7

    I am covering some of my shorts/puts here.

  • standard_and_poor

    Watch 700 closely for possible acceleration down. I will hold off closing some shorts till then.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Member short sales (used to be posted by Barrons) have come way way down.

    that is normally a bullish sign so careful with the possible spike

  • Erikd

    molecool can you put the more aggresive EW target out there that can happen. i know this is a good level for some..

  • Vendrell

    I believe that we are now in 3 of 3 of 5 which makes a 650-665 target very possible by today-Wednesday.

  • alphahorn

    i'm reloading a bit, unfortunately a bit higher than where i took profits a bit ago

  • standard_and_poor

    Transportations down big time-5.7%.

  • katzo7

    pressure building for a interday pop, how high is the big????

  • Vardoger

    covered everything except hbc. long sso stock

  • Erikd

    thankyou that aligns with my trend study for today/tomorrow…

  • Rd99Hse1

    I share your mindset. Did take 2/3 short off the table @ sp714 – but still hold a significant DIA short as a patient bear in the cave.

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing 5% more of shorts, just in case of boo boo.

  • Erikd

    100% short with march contracts, $VIX is helping now even when price is not…

  • jacksoo

    big call vendrell – major kudos if correct.

  • katzo7

    Bought mar. 74 calls @1.85 for intraday pop

  • molecool

    Vendrell – post a chart. Do you have jing?

    http://jingproject.com

    I had to drag Erik into the 21st century last year as well… 😛

  • alphahorn

    awesome, i took your vix post to heart this morning, thx, my calls are doing quite well

  • Pone

    Erikd- XLF Looks like we are pushing on 7.18-7.20 resistance. Is this the extent of the pop you were talking about?

  • finalbull

    do you see a bounce to 730-735 before we go to 650

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing more shorts

  • TomOfTheNorth

    And in looking for a catalyst, the ADP employment report is out Wednesday @8:15 a.m. eastern. It's going to be ugly.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    SOLD SPY JUN 09 60 PUT @3.00

  • molecool

    LOL – nothing to learn with jing – you just grab a screen area and paint on it. Super easy.

  • jacksoo

    bow to your greater experience but following ES 2min with RSI and MACD – combined with lunch time shenanigans and lower volume – looks like balancing ready to go lower?

  • mimi66

    Mole…you are good…

  • Vendrell

    My best guess is a bounce of 725 tops (I don't even see that happening, to be honest,). If we do get to 735, then molecool's count is likely correct and this entire 3 of 5 may be over.

    Just to be clear, my target is 660, not 650 for this leg down.

    I just noticed that a lot more people started following my posts (e-mail pings). I want to be clear that I am NOT that good at EWT counts. There are several others here who are much better at that than me.

    The thing I do add value with is my quant models. When I get a strong buy signal, I'll be sure to post that.

  • standard_and_poor

    I still have alot more to sell, just following plan.

  • rhae

    This was the $VIX Market profile chart for today… the range topped where it should around 51.48… about Moles SPX number near 704… like to have charts agree…

    http://screencast.com/t/xCtjrXjP just a logical thin zone for a happening

  • HardTimes

    We didn't even get down to the $6.70-$7.00 levels he was talking about yet…

  • molecool

    Erik – I'm putting up a post for you right now. You will love it.

  • joe8888

    $rut hitting double bottom here.

  • lester whorewhankle

    XLF dropping again

  • jacksoo

    got ya

  • Erikd

    i only see 711 maybe…

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Triple bottom on /ES?

  • Lordted

    I like your plan.. Let us know when it becomes a Buying plan ..

  • Vardoger

    This bounce is WEAK. Looking more and more like a flag

  • dnarby

    Went long the $RUT Friday. : p

  • Vendrell

    I actually agree with you…I think we see minimal bounces along the and end on our lows today.

    That said, when I'm answering people's questions, I feel compelled to err on the conservative side. Unfortunately, that reduces the effectiveness of the advice but tradeoffs are present everywhere in life.

  • jacksoo

    read somewhere there was no such thing as a triple bottom (?) – if it doesn't get back above 710 though I guess we're back into lower highs, lower lows formation?

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • joe8888

    TZA had an inverse on the daily. , that played out today , target of 92 ish…

    I started a TNA position,( i wait going long ) lol..

    Hope we bounce into friday ,

  • Squidman

    If it was the EOD I'd say it's the gap down tomorrow confirmation?

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    no bottom

  • Lordted

    You reffering to Cup & handle Mole? LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Q's seem to say we're going down more.

  • Rd99Hse1

    i agree. if i see a triple bounce (especially if small) off a level it tells me that prices are attracted to lower #s: there's a magnet below whatever support that may be.

  • molecool

    Not necessarily IMHO. But look at the Zero chart right now – downward momentum appears to be waning.

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks Jacksoo!

  • Pone

    XLF- Vol very low now – signaled move last 4 days – 2 slow melt downs(last 2) – 2 big pops .

  • standard_and_poor

    Will do thanks mate.

  • molecool

    Not sure yet – want to see a bottom first. The short leg will be close to ATM.

  • MrBinky

    Not Molecool, but here are some EW projections on current minor wave 3.

    SPX 705 = 123 % of minor wave 1
    SPX 686 = 138 % of minor wave 1
    SPX 653 = 161 % of minor wave 1

    These levels suggest current wave 5 of minor 3 is likely an extension.
    I vote for 686 as most likely although 653 is definitely possible in a wave 3, and 1.618 is a strong fib number.
    I am 80% short the market, mostly with options – plan to exit 25% at 705, 50% at 686, and 25% AT 653.

    If we don't get to 653, not a big deal. I'm thinking tight stops, or wait till wave 5 if you have longer term options.

  • Lordted

    I'm shaving longs on Futures on YM,,, I like trading. Can't stand sitting on
    my hands!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    [Repost in right place]
    Daytrading into SDS here, while holding nearly all shorts so far today. Internals are severe; excpecting either panic (some) or else closing near lod.
    Fun day for bears
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • dnarby

    Me too! I was way to early…

    I've noticed that TNA/TZA almost always pauses to take a breath at around 12% on any one day move. Sometimes it then runs further, but usually it reverses (sometimes only for the day). Why it does this I can only guess.

    Expecting a bounce into March. Time will tell. GLTA

  • rhae

    SPY 5m some indicator divergence, might just be passing the plate of cookies for the 2nd time… gett'em before they are gone… should /could be a test

  • DMS425

    Mole, if 704 holds today and we bounce, I am personally recommending you to Obama's administration. And the best part is you will not have to pay any taxes. They really need a market advisor!

  • Paxromanus

    Mole

    what's your read on the ISEE levels?

    Maximus
    http://4best4worst.wordpress.com/
    searching for truth….

  • nyse

    Nice call, homie.

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net MrTrader

    What sort of Bull put spread are you contemplating, spy 80/75, 80/70 … March or April? Ive got orders for March 80/75 w/ 4-1 risk/reward.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Mole, Check your email for a RL update

  • katzo7

    I am covering some of my shorts/puts here.

  • standard_and_poor

    Watch 700 closely for possible acceleration down. I will hold off closing some shorts till then.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Member short sales (used to be posted by Barrons) have come way way down.

    that is normally a bullish sign so careful with the possible spike

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Mole,

    thanks for the chart. I am out of my SRS.

  • Erikd

    molecool can you put the more aggresive EW target out there that can happen. i know this is a good level for some..

  • Vendrell

    I believe that we are now in 3 of 3 of 5 which makes a 650-665 target very possible by today-Wednesday.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'm reloading a bit, unfortunately a bit higher than where i took profits a bit ago

  • standard_and_poor

    Transportations down big time-5.7%.

  • katzo7

    pressure building for a interday pop, how high is the big????

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    did you do all your buying last week, or are you still loading the wagon?

  • Vardoger

    covered everything except hbc. long sso stock

    I like the count Mole. Licking my chops thinking about picking up some front months on deep discount days before expiration

  • jacksoo

    i follow Mclaren quite a bit – he sees 630ish – latest comments below

    http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articl

  • Erikd

    thankyou that aligns with my trend study for today/tomorrow…

  • Rd99Hse1

    I share your mindset. Did take 2/3 short off the table @ sp714 – but still hold a significant DIA short as a patient bear in the cave.

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing 5% more of shorts, just in case of boo boo.

  • Erikd

    100% short with march contracts, $VIX is helping now even when price is not…

  • jacksoo

    big call vendrell – major kudos if correct.

  • katzo7

    Bought mar. spy 74 calls @1.85 for intraday pop
    Guys. look like we will get a bit of a pop here, not high IMO but up for a couple hrs.
    MACD on 5 min. looked to cross, touched, turned and went up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Vendrell – post a chart. Do you have jing?

    http://jingproject.com

    I had to drag Erik into the 21st century last year as well… 😛

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    awesome, i took your vix post to heart this morning, thx, my calls are doing quite well

  • Vendrell

    Sorry, no charts.

    I should also tell everybody that I'm still an EWT newb and there are others here who are WAY more experienced than I am. Please take their counts over mine.

    I just started contributing a lot more in the last few weeks. I'll learn the jing software and start putting up charts soon.

  • Pone

    Erikd- XLF Looks like we are pushing on 7.18-7.20 resistance. Is this the extent of the pop you were talking about?

  • finalbull

    do you see a bounce to 730-735 before we go to 650

  • standard_and_poor

    Closing more shorts

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    And in looking for a catalyst, the ADP employment report is out Wednesday @8:15 a.m. eastern. It's going to be ugly.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    SOLD SPY JUN 09 60 PUT @3.00

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – nothing to learn with jing – you just grab a screen area and paint on it. Super easy.

  • jacksoo

    bow to your greater experience but following ES 2min with RSI and MACD – combined with lunch time shenanigans and lower volume – looks like balancing ready to go lower?

  • mimi66

    Mole…you are good…

  • Vendrell

    My best guess is a bounce of 725 tops (I don't even see that happening, to be honest,). If we do get to 735, then molecool's count is likely correct and this entire 3 of 5 may be over.

    Just to be clear, my target is 660, not 650 for this leg down.

    I just noticed that a lot more people started following my posts (e-mail pings). I want to be clear that I am NOT that good at EWT counts. There are several others here who are much better at that than me.

    The thing I can add value with is my quant models. When I get a strong buy signal, I'll be sure to post that.

    molecool, just saw your comment below. I will start with the charts sooner than later.

  • standard_and_poor

    I still have alot more to sell, just following plan.

  • rhae

    This was the $VIX Market profile chart for today… the range topped where it should around 51.48… about Moles SPX number near 704… like to have charts agree…

    just a logical thin zone for a happening

    http://www.screencast.com/t/AS73B86J I won't complain about screencast but it does not always pick up the correct copy

  • Erikd

    still only drawing straight lines on charts.. and posting on jing thanks to molecool, to share the love…

  • HardTimes

    We didn't even get down to the $6.70-$7.00 levels he was talking about yet…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Erik – I'm putting up a post for you right now. You will love it.

  • Joe8888

    $rut hitting double bottom here.

  • Erikd

    does this 30 minute chart tell you that we have put in a bottom… comments please…XLF http://screencast.com/t/P31pVpmc

  • lester

    XLF dropping again

  • jacksoo

    got ya

  • Erikd

    i only see 711 maybe…

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Triple bottom on /ES?

  • Lordted

    I like your plan.. Let us know when it becomes a Buying plan ..

  • Vardoger

    This bounce is WEAK. Looking more and more like a flag

  • http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    Went long the $RUT Friday. : p

  • Vendrell

    I actually agree with you…I think we see minimal bounces along the way and end on our lows today.

    That said, when I'm answering people's questions, I feel compelled to err on the conservative side. Unfortunately, that reduces the effectiveness of the advice but tradeoffs are present everywhere in life.

  • jacksoo

    read somewhere there was no such thing as a triple bottom (?) – if it doesn't get back above 710 though I guess we're back into lower highs, lower lows formation?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Meh… just lucky.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • Joe8888

    TZA had an inverse on the daily. , that played out today , target of 92 ish…

    I started a TNA position,( i wait going long ) lol..

    Hope we bounce into friday ,

  • Squidman

    If it was the EOD I'd say it's the gap down tomorrow confirmation?

  • TraderTamas

    no bottom

  • Lordted

    You reffering to Cup & handle Mole? LOL

  • standard_and_poor

    Q's seem to say we're going down more.

  • Rd99Hse1

    i agree. if i see a triple bounce (especially if small) off a level it tells me that prices are attracted to lower #s: there's a magnet below whatever support that may be.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not necessarily IMHO. But look at the Zero chart right now – downward momentum appears to be waning.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I saw it – thanks!

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks Jacksoo!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That's how I roll, bro 😉

  • Pone

    XLF- Vol very low now – signaled move last 4 days – 2 slow melt downs(last 2) – 2 big pops .

  • standard_and_poor

    Thanks mate.

  • standard_and_poor

    Will do thanks mate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not sure yet – want to see a bottom first. The short leg will be close to ATM.

  • Mr.Holmes

    Not Molecool, but here are some EW projections on current minor wave 3.

    SPX 705 = 123 % of minor wave 1
    SPX 686 = 138 % of minor wave 1
    SPX 653 = 161 % of minor wave 1

    These levels suggest current wave 5 of minor 3 is likely an extension.
    I vote for 686 as most likely although 653 is definitely possible in a wave 3, and 1.618 is a strong fib number.
    I am 80% short the market, mostly with options – plan to exit 25% at 705, 50% at 686, and 25% AT 653.

    If we don't get to 653, not a big deal. I'm thinking tight stops, or wait till wave 5 if you have longer term options.

  • Lordted

    I'm shaving longs on Futures on YM,,, I like trading. Can't stand sitting on
    my hands!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    [Repost in right place]
    Daytrading into SDS here, while holding nearly all shorts so far today. Internals are severe; excpecting either panic (some) or else closing near lod.
    Fun day for bears
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    Me too! I was way to early…

    I've noticed that TNA/TZA almost always pauses to take a breath at around 12% on any one day move. Sometimes it then runs further, but usually it reverses (sometimes only for the day). Why it does this I can only guess.

    Expecting a bounce into March. Time will tell. GLTA

  • rhae

    SPY 5m some indicator divergence, might just be passing the plate of cookies for the 2nd time… gett'em before they are gone… should /could be a test

  • DMS425

    Mole, if 704 holds today and we bounce, I am personally recommending you to Obama's administration. And the best part is you will not have to pay any taxes. They really need a market advisor!