Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

By the time I’m typing this the spoos have already touched the 25-hour SMA. A breach lower here may lead us back to the 100-hour. The fact that the 25-hour is flattening may suggest the juice is running out up here. So I’m pretty curious how things will unfold as we are about half an hour away from the NYSE opening bell. I will grab a few ST short positions if buyers don’t show up here.

Signs of life in the greenback. When I got up this morning I was horrified to see the EUR/USD above the 1.3 mark again (as you can imagine I’m feeling that at the ATM). It’s since weakened a bit and inversely the DX is now pushing above the 100-hour SMA. I’m going to hold the confetti for now however as this could turn into yet another failed break out similar to what we saw last Wednesday. I think a solid breach here is important or a EUR/USD of 1.3 may be in Santa’s Christmas bag.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, November 30th, 2012 at 8:58 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ..back to the 100!?

    T time rats.
    http://s18.postimage.org/5mrrvuyvb/ES_Nov_end_2012.png
    -Gerb

  • Skynard

    Took the long entry on /SI

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good luck to you sir – where did you get in?

  • Skynard

    34.18, think we may get a re-test of the 100. Good enough for me with a stop a few ticks below.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Public Announcement
    Today is Month End.
    Monday is Mutual Fund Monday

  • Joe_Jones

    Morning rats. Looks like Ye Ol’volume Hole is again in the way. 

  • Skynard

    Very good point, let’s get R done:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Seems Mole’s 25-hr is different from yours by 4-5 pts. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    sharp eye, my candles are set to 2hrs.
    so you are looking at the 200ma or is it 50? math always tricks me. ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    for you it’s always 2 or 3R.
    clever pun.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Chicago pre-menstrual itch, in T-minus 8-min.

  • Skynard

    ZL good show, put /ES at full strength:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    weak data flow . . . 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I don’t like amateur hour, it usually bites me.
    there may be room for one more pop.  I don’t like the gap on the proshorts.

    http://s15.postimage.org/9lieqwz49/temp1.png

  • Skynard

    Looking for a clean break of the triangle resolving here shortly.

  • ronebadger

     likewise

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    okay, driving into work, maybe this log jam will break.

  • Skynard

    Widening the spread, /SI stopped out dammit and reloaded @ 33.88 (Gap & CraP). Holding /ES

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     I don’t like silver action over past few days. Bought SLV on 11/7, my stop is 32.55 for today only

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    …and 1413.50 – ground hog day.

  • bdoone

    More like grind hog day:)

  • badflightrisk

    Another 10% run on JRCC. 

  • Skynard

    DJI dipped below 13K, lets see if it can recover. Ready to short if it can not:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    I find troubling that stocks, bonds, silver and dollar all falling today. People don’t want to hold anything over weekend ?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s my crew? I see that I didn’t miss much while I was at the gym :-)

  • AMCabrera

    nope. My goodness the longer this goes on the bigger the break is going to be whatever direction.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yup – we have to be patient…

  • AMCabrera

    although I really think aussie will be the biggest loser out of all of this whether risk on or off.

  • AcoBrasil

    Nice run on that one. I’m guessing it will continue until it fills the gap and/or hits the upper bollinger line if it clears the 50sma weekly line.

    I piled into GFA yesterday and at market open today. Nice bollinger breakout lining up with strong volume confirmation yesterday  (today was the backfill) and a break and hold of the 200sma daily.

    It was stopped cold in its tracks yesterday by strong resistance at the 50sma weekly line. If the general markets hold up, I anticipate it will break through that by mid-next week (along with the the 50sma daily right below) after shaking a few more week hands. 

  • AMCabrera

    aud/jpy is certainly having trouble I really want to add shorts but I have to take caution that this so called topping formation could be consolidation.

  • AMCabrera

    bring me wallace. alive if possible. dead just as good.  Send us news of our victory. Shall we retire? clearing nzd/usd, gbp/jpy. but keeping aud/usd, gbp/chf, and aud/jpy short long short.

  • MrMargin

    Complete lack of momentum in most stocks for the fifth day in row.  Short term readings show the SPX as overbought and I suppose we’re not going to conquer the 50d at 1421 on the first try, but rather test the 200d at about 1385 once more. However, there’s a very strong statistical edge for a Monday to close green if it’s also the first trading day of the month, so I wouldn’t hold short over the weekend.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Or hind grind day.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    50 & 200, heaven or hell in between.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Small correction is in order. Sideways consolidation is even better. But if it lasts more than 2-5 days – we are in trouble.

  • MrMargin

    I think the market would’ve dropped this week, but there were POMO actions on every day since Tuesday. Rob Hanna analysed the effect of POMO money flows and he was able to demonstrate that trading systems can be massively improved by taking this data into account and trading with the Fed instead of fighting it. So my guess would be that the drop that should’ve been and POMO cancelled each other out this week.

  • Pervergence

    l GC 1716

  • ridingwaves

    I’ve been playing temp. treasury sell operations with shorts for last 18 months with great success…
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

    they will publish dec. data tomm.

  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    I understand you, but still these Pomo-shmomo seems to be not working over past 3 months. I’m not fighting the Fed, I think it’s all bullshit. Click my name, I don’t want to copy my blog in here.
    Sorry Mole, I know you don’t like outside links

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ll try to find it in my heart to forgive you…

  • AMCabrera

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_phenomenon
    The question of market manipulation is so silly. I find it vexing that this is even a question and papers are written on the topic of market manipulation. 

  • ridingwaves
  • MrMargin

    Interesting read, though it focuses a bit too much on speculation about Bernanke’s motivations for my taste. In any case, the actual numbers really surprised my. If you take a simple 80/20 mean reversion system and add a filter to only trade when there are pronounced POMO money flows, you can reduce the time you’re in the market by about 2/3 and increase the profit factor by  a factor of between four and six.

    This may not even be caused by the actual POMO money but instead be self-fulfilling prophecy, but it certainly convinced me that this is a metric it makes sense to keep an eye on.

  • MrMargin

    I see your point, but I’m not talking about the big picture (QE3 = rising prices) but instead the smaller picture and the effects on a day-to-day basis. Those are measurable or at least those measurements can be used to show that a correlation exists which of course does not imply causality. But it is there and it can be used.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, bring it.

  • ridingwaves

    http://s17.postimage.org/mcm27duen/Dow_113012.jpg

    that 180 line in sand seems to be important ….hee..hee..

  • BobbyLow

    Market Manipulation?  No way.   :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yjHxcHTAW8

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    FN crazy tape!





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