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Gold Fever!
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Gold Fever!

by The MoleMarch 12, 2009

UPDATE 9:38am EST: Good morning, ladies and leeches! We got ourselves a mild drop in equities this morning, just as I expected. Question now is – will it continue and develop into a full scale slide (meaning Minor 4 is done) or is this only the {b} wave of this consolidation?

Frankly, the chart could not be any clearer, IMHO. If we drop through 710 or even 700 and leave the channel, then I would concede that we only had a min-4 and that the consolidation party is over. But as long as we remain int his channel all this is just mental masturbation.

There are others who bring up the question of whether or not we are already in Primary {2}. Valid question indeed, and yes – it is a possibility. And again, the chart provides us with clues to that effect. If we bust through the yellow Separation Zone (sorry, no cutsy names today) then probabilities start to clearly point that way. However, in addition to price movement I would like to see momentum indicators swing a bit harder – what I’ve seen yesterday and even the day before is not the type of snap back rally I envisioned for the onset of 1 of (A) of {2}.

Gold is pushing up strongly, and I get the impression that we might perhaps see an expanded flat (psalm 47:1-33 in our bible). I have circled the areas where I would dip into short positions. Feels a bit early right now to jump in – that’s just me – I could be wrong of course, so if you are long term trader you should care and this is good entry.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    WTF just happened with the YEN – it was having a good time this morning and now – smack down!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I dont know wants more annoying wave 4's or Gold not getting down to $700

  • molecool

    BTW, Slope of Hope strikes again! 🙂

  • jabber

    Not sure, but I am adding to my gold puts here.

  • Mr. L

    Herr Mole, gold still hasn't broken its upwards channel:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NH5FYzipxUt

  • WiredPirate

    Mole, since 4 of 5 can't, by definition, go into 1 of 5 would a move to 805 be the definitive confirmation that we are in Primary (2) or can confirmation happen sooner (in the Separation Zone)?

  • molecool

    Absolutely – that would be final confirmation.

    1+ for paying attention.

  • OJuice

    Possible long candidate for the future: CAL. This thing has snapped back very quickley from it's current levels in the past.

  • dacian

    Possible H&S starting to be printed on GOLD chart? Look back in July 2008, there was another one at that time.

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    Max pain SPY is $76. That cooincides nicely with Mole's Wave 4 target and RL's. FYI

    More comment:
    http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com

  • v8muscle

    Looks like we're following that resistance line all the way up to 740 today, and should hit right before the close

  • BalaB
  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    MOLE –

    I just paid for a one month subscription to Zero. I cannot utilize the service (I trade EOD only), but I felt it was the best way to contribute to your site. I sincerely appreciate all that you do for us at Evil. Consider me a 'paying' leech.

    Cheers,

    Donna

  • Count_de_Monee

    euro selling off.

  • Jack

    MA didn't participate the recent rally strongly. It's interesting to see how it reacts when market begins to pull back.

  • molecool

    You cut off the time coordinates – not sure what interval this is.

  • molecool

    I'm holding MA and noticed that – not liking the current lack of participation. If it doesn't catch up I might have to let it go as the SPX correlation is usually pretty high.

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    That's me.

  • molecool

    Man – that is very cool. But you really shouldn't do that – I only want people to pay if they are actually using the Zero. The site is free and will stay that way.

  • molecool

    Is it me or is it really quiet in here lately? Who did I piss off now?

    Alright, alright – not everyone at once – get in line and pick a number!

  • katzo7

    Wow, someone famous, other than Mole of course.

  • Mr. L
  • Stretch

    Is it possible you are breaking up the culture with multiple forums?

  • katzo7

    Market is pissing us off. Not you, you are great I think

  • eurobear

    Its quiet as a lot of folks are still short and obviously nervous

  • Stretch

    Still holding XLF puts but concerned about the ErikD's top channel being broken.

  • BalaB

    Cool

  • BalaB

    No go go juice so far

  • QQQQ4

    XLF & IYR still trading within yesterday's range…

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    I just don't want to get caught up in the infamous chop chop W4…Just waiting for the usual .382 retrace…

  • Matt

    looks like possible resistance in this area. i am short, hoping to stay that way. will close faz on a break above 7.66

    http://imgur.com/5VPAD.jpg

  • GDII

    same here. got beaten pretty hard 🙁

  • maya

    Mole are you now bullish or bearish?

  • isaiah64v4

    You think it is quiet here… go to the Zero Forum. It is like a morgue there.

  • Matt

    basing judgement on location of price as well as ratio of asks/bids. BTW, has any one else considered this piece of info in trading. Are there any indicators relating the amount of bids to asks at a given time?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Short /NQ 1130

  • OJuice

    The 735-729 gap from 2/27 to 3/2 has held up well over the past two days.

  • GDII

    as the sole evil news reader, i am doing my job.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

    other than unexpected rate cut, they also directly entered into trades in the fx market. The result is USD jump up a lot.
    again, i am beaten up pretty hard.

  • jabber

    Today's volume on the /es has been very weak. First 30min saw 150k contracts traded, usually we see over 300k, on a good day over 400k.

  • annamall

    Mole, your chart was so right on! We dropped early then rebounded. Thanks for such good work! I still see SKF to 155 retracement

  • pricey

    I'm holding my breath waiting for faz to run up – along with EricD

  • molecool

    Well, I never thought it would be that busy in the forum. Unless I get thousands of subscribers – mmmwwuuaaahaaahaaaa!!!

  • guardian

    Well Done Evil,

    I noticed we bounced off the bottom of the channel you drew yesterday!

    It must be magic. 🙂

  • molecool

    Not!!! The forum is only for subscribers – and they are not asking many questions (good).

  • molecool

    It's tinkerbell and all that shit – yeah!

  • molecool

    See, I'm not completely useless.

  • molecool

    Hehehehehehe 🙂

  • BalaB

    The list (I suspect) is long my friend……very, very long….

    LOL!

  • Keirsten

    For anyone trading FAZ- you have gap support @49.50, and then @47.06. I'm personally just slowly legging into more shorts and not getting rattled by taking on too much position. In the interim I'm going against myself daytrading TNA, BGU, FAS etc.

    Mole- I'm not seeing any of those institutional blocks we saw late last week, and the rest of the blocks are just a steady mix, so nothing big to write home about.

    G/L everybody.

  • annamall

    🙂

  • Basilfawlty

    Guys and Gals
    XLF
    SPX has taking out yesterdays highs, broke out of flag on 60-min graph (see chart)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0

    Next SPX post 741-746, then onto 770-780

    Cheers

  • katzo7

    Hanging on by fingernails.
    LOL

  • BalaB

    Hey Zero subscribers!!
    Do you plan on being in the forum throughout the day?
    I will if you will (juvenile, I know)

    Hit me up and I'll head over

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    Getting close to 740 area. Almost time to rock and roll.

  • Keirsten

    Oh yeah, one more thing- the swing low resistance for SPY is @ 74.34 then 75.05 if it ever gets there. 74.34 comes fairly close to the .382 Fib as well.

  • fuw

    I'm noting that XLF is not following the S&P breakout. The question is if it will follow shortly, or if it is indicating weakness and that the S&P move might be a fakeout/bull trap?

  • fuw

    Note that xlf has not broken yesterdays highs yet. If S&P turns at 740 it might not at all.

  • BalaB

    I don't know how you have the time to monitor and day trade all those at once!

    Talented indeed

  • Squidman

    Do you think, then, that confirms they were positioning for this rally? Thanks so much for all you do BTW!

  • Basilfawlty

    I only trade the SPY.
    I comment on the XLF only because quite a number of folks on our board trade XLF or other vehicles dependent on the XLF.

    Cheers

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Thanks for the info, Keirsten…I'm in FAZ and a bit worried.

  • yazzer

    you still in FAZ?

  • Keirsten

    You're so welcome Squid. RE: the block trades… That was the basic premise Mole and I came up with. The harder part is knowing when the buy blocks fly off from this point on, and knowing if they are short sellers for a slide…. but monitoring as best as I can and will share with you.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Hi mole, here is the chart of W4 I am seeing. The blue Fibo 2.618 extension (not labeled, and don't know why) should be the end of 5 of 1/a of W4, which is pretty much to the .382 of W3…
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/33485

  • rhae

    SPY, just fiddleing around waiting for this morning run to peter out

    http://screencast.com/t/NoJaKGUe

  • katzo7

    A top

  • yazzer

    the reason why many here follow XLF because “as XLF goes, so does the market” (e.g. SPY included)…do you think there's a huge divergence?

  • Keirsten

    Nuts is more like it. It takes a special .. ahem.. breed of nuts like us to do this work day in and out.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    While Treasury & Congress continue to chase their tails (uptick rule, anyone?), it's some consolation to know that somebody is capable of taking effective action:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/

    It actually gave me a bit of a headache – the ramifications of all of this activity in the Sept-Nov period are staggering.
    If we reasonably get through this, Bernanke will be a Fed Chair of legend.

  • pricey

    I'm with you too Jan, last words from ErikD, close of XLF was 0.06 below trendline so rest well overnight. Faz moves so fast that it can leave you like a deer in headlights. Must have stops in mind.

  • v8muscle

    Transports are diverging significantly today…..

  • mcpig

    what are thoughts on a short gold / long oil pair?

  • BalaB

    Well, I did read your from Seattle…..
    I love anyone from the PacNW

  • DeepSlackerJazz

    In SPY Apr 70 puts @ 2.47

  • Keirsten

    Just follow Mole's Yellow Brick Road. 😉 It hasn't let us down yet.

  • TenYear

    Is this a bulltrap here or what

  • malusDiaz

    It's running up as well:
    http://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

    Almost all green Financial sector.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    isn't Yellow brick Road ErikD's thing lol

  • Basilfawlty

    No, I do not think there is a huge divergence, because after all,t he financial stocks form a significant percentage of the SPX.

    Trading vehicles based on the SPX (ES, SPY etc) is however different from trading FAZ, SKF etc.

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    yeah, my calls are down like 60% lol

  • Dutch

    I've done very well trading MA for over a year. I've noticed it tends to lead the market at times. I tried it twice yesterday and it just refused to do much of anything. It has had anemic volume during this rally which makes me think the big money isn't trading it. I'm not touching it here.

  • isaiah64v4

    Balab

    I think Zero Forum is in foreclosure. No one is there. 2 days now almost no posts.

  • de3600

    guess i will pull up a chair

  • v8muscle

    I think we will rally tomorrow also. My reasoning? XLF needs to hit 7.90-7.97 to make a clean reversal, JPM needs to hit 22.50-22.80, GS needs to hit 97, and SPX needs to hit 740. Using JPM and GS as reversal signals has worked VERY VERY well in the past, and if one plays the market off of JPM/GS charts you get even more clear signals than from looking at SPX charts. We might get a doji tomorrow but I dont think there's enough selling pressure to take this down on Friday, esp with the market rallying on bad news.

    Green today, slightly green/even tomorrow… HUGE reversal on Monday.

  • MaxPainMan

    yeah, i got pretty screwed…..
    so do we buy now? or do you see further downside?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shorting more XLF if it gets to 8.90

  • rhae

    without timeframes I have no idea what anyone talking about… this morning SPY 5m pullback slope angles look more like flags, they are not steep enough to generate much fear…. yet

  • Zeusmith

    Well, I hope gold gets reigned in towards the mid $850 mark. I am looking to purchase around that area. I think Tim Knight is dead wrong with his 700's call. Adjusted to real inflation, gold should be at like $6000/oz compared to 1980.

    Anyway, I may take another short stab at gold around $940 spot, should it get there. The bottom of trendline on DZZ is around the 21.75 area. Still have 400 shares long from purchase last week.

  • BalaB

    LOL…you and your friggin avatars

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Is there a holiday in the U.S today?

  • BalaB

    Alright….I'm gonna post some charts and what not during lunch…..input is greatly desired!

  • de3600

    no

  • ZigZag

    Thanks V8….Thats always a bearish sign.

  • katzo7

    Tom's the boss.

  • prozor7

    one more and we can play poker or Russian roulette.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    SHORT /NQM9 @1135.50

  • Keirsten

    I think that's the Brick S&^$ -House. LOL

  • jabber

    Goes to show how weak volume is today.

  • Stretch

    Are you planning to stick with March opex?

  • molecool

    Guys – I just started the damn thing. Give it a chance!

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    buying FAZ here…

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Yes, it's “Take A Tax Fraud To Congress Day”

  • fuw

    S&P has tested the gap from Feb 27 and turned down. Could that have been it for wave 4, since its not too far from the stated target areas?

  • malusDiaz

    It's an attempted Short Squeeze.

    It just might work too.

    Until Panic sets in the other way.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Same, give or take a couple of pennies.

  • MaxPainMan

    anyone buying yen / fxy ?
    or do you see further downside?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    That explains it the MM's are watching Madoff to see if he dobbs them in! Too distracted to enter trades.

  • yazzer

    ditto – I added a few here…

  • v8muscle

    itchy trigger finger I see… we got a little while more to go before we get overbought on the daily stoch which has been a reliable indicator. another day or two and we'll be there

  • TomOfTheNorth

    was talking about Turbo Tax Tim….lol

  • DZZ

    Just lurking to leech the next great gold call.
    Mostly cash till next 'real' direction. small FAS, exit soon.. Prophet(s) SPY, $SPX and XLF channels still holding.
    May stop out of QID?

    Learning from all the great peeps. Too many to mention. Thanks!

    ($SPX chart above EWT, especially {a} – {c} labels. Are they in the correct place? Altered States?)

  • molecool

    We could push a bit higher, but that's a good range.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    and katzo is NOT gay!

    he's totally bi….

    lol

  • GDII

    it is too risky to dance with the wolves. i chicken out all my fx positions already.
    chart works most of the time, but the political override is always terrible and painful.
    if just the rate case, we can handle that based on the historical pattern. it's the GOV interference part gets me. we don't know their target. we don't know how much buying power they have.

    there is always chance here and there. save my ass is my first priority today 🙂

  • malusDiaz

    Daily /ES Shows MACD JUST Crossed. I think we've just entered Wave B.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    evil speculator 'Evil Omen' Alert:

    Dow Ind are down 66.66

  • de3600

    anyone shorting gs

  • TomOfTheNorth

    oops –up

  • katzo7

    There is always a holiday everyday in the US. We don't have to work, tho gov. supports us.

  • molecool

    “Adjusted to real inflation, gold should be at like $6000/oz compared to 1980. “

    Ugh… not that again. Yes, yes – you are right, but we are NOT at $6000. Whenever I hear 'xxxx 'should' be there' I start to laugh. There's obviously a reason it's not. The rest is mental masturbation.

    It's not impossible that Gold might breach the 1007.5 high, but at this stage the wave count indicates it might have topped there. So, until I see a breach I play the short side.

  • molecool

    NICE 🙂

  • Mr. L

    I was, got out of it this morning on that dip, how're you playing it?

  • molecool

    I'm in it already – it seems to be accepting these lows, so I'm staying in the trade.

  • katzo7

    WTF??
    LOL
    point up for not gay
    point down for bi

  • MaxPainMan

    cool.
    adding some /6J

  • v8muscle

    got another 1-2 bucks to go before hitting resistance i think. pretty good entry though if you arent too concerned with picking the exact top

  • malusDiaz

    And timing is EVERYTHING.

    From Reminiscence of a stock operator, when Livingston saw the crash coming, he was still years ahead of time. (Think it was 23/24 hard to say with the writing.)

    and anyone who says you can't time the market usually also says the markets are efficient.

  • Ed

    I'm actually long GS right now and just moving my stops up. My target is 96-97 before I think it might turn. At that level we'll have to see what the S&P does (probably around the 740 level). Will it go back down ? more than likely.

  • BalaB
  • malusDiaz

    Eugene is where it's at!

  • BalaB

    LOLOLOLOL….
    I wish we had voice posting instead of the written word. The delivery comes off so much better through vocal ranges……

  • WiredPirate

    I like that 735 held with negative divergence from yesterdays highs so I filled in the other half of my TZA(84.31), TYP(58.59) and picked up a few FAZ April 65 Calls(11.50 lottery tickets) I am fully short for a swing to the lows of 5 of 5 with a stop on a close above SPX 752 in case Mole's Primary (2) scenario gets legs. I fully recognize the bull trap could continue to 750 but the risk reward looks good to me at this level and I am willing to board the train at this location to make sure it doesn't leave without me.

    Continued GL to all.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&b=5&g

  • BalaB

    well then, we're neighbors….
    head north 2 hours

  • Zeusmith

    I know Moley. I just post this commentary for perspective on how unpriced the asset is relative to the financial turmoil we're experiencing. I have no doubt gold is going to explode higher – it' just a matter of when – could be months, could be years..

    Anyway, the way to play gold IMO is to buy short dated puts and short term swing trades within the range. Right now, i leaning to shorting GLD between $940-$960 for the short term. But bear in mind, at any point we could see a massive move in gold should an Eastern European country default and start a chain reaction. There still is ST risk.

  • malusDiaz

    That's cool!

    Love'n the Oregon (Former Californian). Got my degree down at OIT.

    I've been figuring that Oregon would do really well in the break down of everything. Good good food, water, Hydro.

    (Don't spread it around though lol)

  • http://www.twitter.com/TraderTamas TraderTamas

    This rally is getting weak: http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

    Also check out XLF today compared to the S&P… getting weaker. Financials will lead the market down from these levels.

  • molecool

    NUOVUS POSTUS.

  • riflewoman

    Its looking to me like 5 waves up on the 60 min ES, gap fill from Mar2, and a 61.8% retracement from 2/26 high to 3/6 lows and this rise has been on decreasing volume. Time for a turn around?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Add more to my short /NQM9 @1141.00

  • OldChicago

    Rising wedge on GS. May pull back for the short-term. Financial seems very bullish and is leading the market today.

  • BalaB

    LOL…I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in Oregon who isn't
    an ex-Californian.
    I did the Bay Area for five years…..(CHI, NY and LA before that)

    It rains 9 months per year here. Clearly it takes a special person to
    handle the weather. I personally love it.

  • malusDiaz

    When the Oregon trail was being crossed, there was a fork in the road.

    South to Cali had a pile of gold and had a sign that said “Oregon”.

    Hence all the people that can read ended up in Oregon.

  • annamall

    I gave up my SPY April calls and bought the 70 April puts.

  • fuw

    heh, yeah might be. I already have some faz, and plan to buy some more when we top. I will try to keep my cool until later in the afternoon.

  • v8muscle

    I have the same problem, as do many traders 🙂

    patience is a virtue. best of luck

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    Thanks mole, just don't call me an useless leech..: )

  • CC rider

    Long SPX at 728.Rally into OPEX is what's for dinner.

  • Jack

    cut nad log @ 31

  • salvadorveiga

    Mole one question though….

    Couldn't we still be in Wave A of minor 4 ? Since the retracement wasn't that big, and in the cash index there's no retrace couldn't we still be in A ?

    Here's a count of Filipe: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_XX1K8deKkBE/Sbkff_nrQ

  • OldChicago

    This count is more obvious if you look at the hourly SPX.

  • Jack

    out @ 36.

  • salvadorveiga

    thats an hourly chart that i posted

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB
  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    MOLE –

    I just paid for a one month subscription to Zero. I cannot utilize the service (I trade EOD only), but I felt it was the best way to contribute to your site. I sincerely appreciate all that you do for us at Evil. Consider me a 'paying' leech.

    Cheers,

    Donna

  • Count_de_Monee

    euro selling off.

  • Jack

    MA didn't participate the recent rally strongly. It's interesting to see how it reacts when market begins to pull back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm holding MA and noticed that – not liking the current lack of participation. If it doesn't catch up I might have to let it go as the SPX correlation is usually pretty high.

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa

    That's me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Man – that is very cool. But you really shouldn't do that – I only want people to pay if they are actually using the Zero. The site is free and will stay that way.

    BTW, if you are an EOD trader you should check out the Zero before you make any trades. The daily gyrations and signal strengths will give you important clues as to what's ahead.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is it me or is it really quiet in here lately? Who did I piss off now?

    Alright, alright – not everyone at once – get in line and pick a number!

  • katzo7

    Wow, someone famous, other than Mole of course.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    Perhaps it's that you have banned anyone with an independent opinion?

  • Stretch

    Is it possible you are breaking up the culture with multiple forums?

  • katzo7

    Market is pissing us off. Not you, you are great I think

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    I enjoyed your article in Rolling Stone,,,

  • eurobear

    Its quiet as a lot of folks are still short and obviously nervous

  • Stretch

    Still holding XLF puts but concerned about the ErikD's top channel being broken.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    .

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    No convincing go go juice in either direction

    Update: uh…I spoke too soon

  • QQQQ4

    XLF & IYR still trading within yesterday's range…

  • Steve

    I just don't want to get caught up in the infamous chop chop W4…Just waiting for the usual .382 retrace…

  • Matt

    looks like possible resistance in this area. i am short, hoping to stay that way. will close faz on a break above 7.66

    http://imgur.com/5VPAD.jpg

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    same here. got beaten pretty hard 🙁

  • maya

    Mole are you now bullish or bearish?

  • isaiah64v4

    You think it is quiet here… go to the Zero Forum. It is like a morgue there.

  • Matt

    basing judgement on location of price as well as ratio of asks/bids. BTW, has any one else considered this piece of info in trading. Are there any indicators relating the amount of bids to asks at a given time?

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Short /NQ 1130 – Stop hit I am out of short.

    Currently long /NQM9 @1135.50

  • OJuice

    The 735-729 gap from 2/27 to 3/2 has held up well over the past two days.

  • Jack

    short ES @ 26.5.
    June contract

  • Jonny

    RIMM, AMZN, GOOG & to a lesser extent AAPL showing relative weakness today. In financials, PUK and to a lesser extent C. GE very strong.

  • jabber

    Today's volume on the /es has been very weak. First 30min saw 150k contracts traded, usually we see over 300k, on a good day over 400k.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Mole, your chart was so right on! We dropped early then rebounded. Thanks for such good work! I still see SKF to 151.83 retracement

  • pricey

    I'm holding my breath waiting for faz to run up – along with EricD

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You still here? 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, I never thought it would be that busy in the forum. Unless I get thousands of subscribers – mmmwwuuaaahaaahaaaa!!!

  • Guardian

    Well Done Evil,

    I noticed we bounced off the bottom of the channel you drew yesterday!

    It must be magic. 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not!!! The forum is only for subscribers – and they are not asking many questions (good).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's tinkerbell and all that shit – yeah!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See, I'm not completely useless.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehehehehehe 🙂

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    The list (I suspect) is long my friend……very, very long….

    LOL!

  • Keirsten

    For anyone trading FAZ- you have gap support @49.50, and then @47.06. I'm personally just slowly legging into more shorts and not getting rattled by taking on too much position. In the interim I'm going against myself daytrading TNA, BGU, FAS etc.

    Mole- I'm not seeing any of those institutional blocks we saw late last week, and the rest of the blocks are just a steady mix, so nothing big to write home about.

    G/L everybody.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    🙂 as a matter of fact I am a huge fan!

  • Basilfawlty

    Guys and Gals
    XLF up today

    SPX has taking out yesterdays highs, broke out of flag on 60-min graph (see chart)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0

    Next SPX post 741-746, then onto 770-780

    Cheers

  • katzo7

    Hanging on by fingernails.
    LOL

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Hey Zero subscribers!!
    Do you plan on being in the forum throughout the day?
    I will if you will (juvenile, I know)

    Hit me up and I'll head over

  • TraderTamas

    Getting close to 740 area. Almost time to rock and roll.

  • Keirsten

    Oh yeah, one more thing- the swing low resistance for SPY is @ 74.34 then 75.05 if it ever gets there. 74.34 comes fairly close to the .382 Fib as well.

  • fuw

    I'm noting that XLF is not following the S&P breakout. The question is if it will follow shortly, or if it is indicating weakness and that the S&P move might be a fakeout/bull trap?

  • fuw

    Note that xlf has not broken yesterdays highs yet. If S&P turns at 740 it might not at all.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    I don't know how you have the time to monitor and day trade all those at once!

    Talented indeed

  • Squidman

    Do you think, then, that confirms they were positioning for this rally? Thanks so much for all you do BTW!

  • Basilfawlty

    I only trade the SPY.
    I comment on the XLF only because quite a number of folks on our board trade XLF or other vehicles dependent on the XLF.

    Cheers

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Thanks for the info, Keirsten…I'm in FAZ and a bit worried.

  • yazzer

    you still in FAZ?

  • Keirsten

    You're so welcome Squid. RE: the block trades… That was the basic premise Mole and I came up with. The harder part is knowing when the buy blocks fly off from this point on, and knowing if they are short sellers for a slide…. but monitoring as best as I can and will share with you.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    me too, Katzo…..

  • Steve

    Hi mole, here is the chart of W4 I am seeing. The blue Fibo 2.618 extension (not labeled, and don't know why) should be the end of 5 of 1/a of W4, which is pretty much to the .382 of W3…
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/spinnaker007/33485

  • rhae

    SPY, just fiddleing around waiting for this morning run to peter out

    http://screencast.com/t/NoJaKGUe

  • katzo7

    A top

  • yazzer

    the reason why many here follow XLF because “as XLF goes, so does the market” (e.g. SPY included)…do you think there's a huge divergence?

  • Keirsten

    Nuts is more like it. It takes a special .. ahem.. breed of nuts like us to do this work day in and out.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    While Treasury & Congress continue to chase their tails (uptick rule, anyone?), it's some consolation to know that somebody is capable of taking effective action:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/

    It actually gave me a bit of a headache – the ramifications of all of this activity in the Sept-Nov period are staggering.
    If we reasonably get through this, Bernanke will be a Fed Chair of legend.

  • pricey

    I'm with you too Jan, last words from ErikD, close of XLF was 0.06 below trendline so rest well overnight. Faz moves so fast that it can leave you like a deer in headlights. Must have stops in mind.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Transports are diverging significantly today…..

  • mcpig

    what are thoughts on a short gold / long oil pair?

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Well, I did read your from Seattle…..
    I love anyone from the PacNW

  • DeepSlackerJazz

    In SPY Apr 70 puts @ 2.47

  • Keirsten

    Just follow Mole's Yellow Brick Road. 😉 It hasn't let us down yet.

  • TenYear

    Is this a bulltrap here or what

  • rosocecasita

    It's running up as well:
    http://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

    Almost all green Financial sector.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    isn't Yellow Brick Road ErikD's thing lol

  • Basilfawlty

    No, I do not think there is a huge divergence; because after all, the financial stocks form a significant percentage of the SPX.

    Trading vehicles based on the SPX (ES, SPY etc) is however different from trading FAZ, SKF etc.

  • TraderTamas

    yeah, my calls are down like 60% lol

  • Dutch

    I've done very well trading MA for over a year. I've noticed it tends to lead the market at times. I tried it twice yesterday and it just refused to do much of anything. It has had anemic volume during this rally which makes me think the big money isn't trading it. I'm not touching it here.

  • isaiah64v4

    Balab

    I think Zero Forum is in foreclosure. No one is there. 2 days now almost no posts.

  • de3600

    guess i will pull up a chair

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I think we will rally tomorrow also. My reasoning? XLF needs to hit 7.90-7.97 to make a clean reversal, JPM needs to hit 22.50-22.80, GS needs to hit 97, and SPX needs to hit 740. Using JPM and GS as reversal signals has worked VERY VERY well in the past, and if one plays the market off of JPM/GS charts you get even more clear signals than from looking at SPX charts. We might get a doji tomorrow but I dont think there's enough selling pressure to take this down on Friday, esp with the market rallying on bad news.

    Green today, slightly green/even tomorrow… HUGE reversal on Monday.

    there is my contribution for today 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shorting more XLF if it gets to 7.90

  • rhae

    without timeframes I have no idea what anyone talking about… this morning SPY 5m pullback slope angles look more like flags, they are not steep enough to generate much fear…. yet

  • Zeusmith

    Well, I hope gold gets reigned in towards the mid $850 mark. I am looking to purchase around that area. I think Tim Knight is dead wrong with his 700's call. Adjusted to real inflation, gold should be at like $6000/oz compared to 1980.

    Anyway, I may take another short stab at gold around $940 spot, should it get there. The bottom of trendline on DZZ is around the 21.75 area. Still have 400 shares long from purchase last week.

  • http://www.disasterporn.blogspot.com ross

    Gold is forming a cup and handle as per longer term charts. Shorting is, in a word, stupid.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    LOL…you and your friggin avatars

  • prozor7

    .

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Is there a holiday in the U.S today?

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Alright….I'm gonna post some charts and what not during lunch…..input is greatly desired!

  • de3600

    no

  • ZigZag

    Thanks V8….Thats always a bearish sign.

  • katzo7

    Tom's the boss.

  • prozor7

    one more and we can play poker or Russian roulette.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    SHORT /NQM9 @1135.50

  • Keirsten

    I think that's the Brick S&^$ -House. LOL

  • jabber

    Goes to show how weak volume is today.

  • Stretch

    Are you planning to stick with March opex?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Guys – I just started the damn thing. Give it a chance!

  • Steve

    buying FAZ here…

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Yes, it's “Take A Tax Fraud To Congress Day”

  • fuw

    S&P has tested the gap from Feb 27 and turned down. Could that have been it for wave 4, since its not too far from the stated target areas?

  • rosocecasita

    It's an attempted Short Squeeze.

    It just might work too.

    (And) Panic sets in the other way.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Same, give or take a couple of pennies.

  • MaxPainMan

    anyone buying yen / fxy ?
    or do you see further downside?

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    That explains it the MM's are watching Madoff to see if he dobbs them in! Too distracted to enter trades.

  • yazzer

    ditto – I added a few here…thse knives are damn sharp LOL!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    itchy trigger finger I see… we got a little while more to go before we get overbought on the daily stoch which has been a reliable indicator. another day or two and we'll be there

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    was talking about Turbo Tax Tim….lol

  • DZZ

    Just lurking to leech the next great gold call.
    Mostly cash till next 'real' direction. small FAS, exit soon.. Prophet(s) SPY, $SPX and XLF channels still holding.
    May stop out of QID?

    Learning from all the great peeps. Too many to mention. Thanks!

    ($SPX chart above EWT, especially {a} – {c} labels. Are they in the correct place? Altered States?)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We could push a bit higher, but that's a good range.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    and katzo is NOT gay!

    he's totally bi….

    lol

  • rosocecasita

    Daily /ES Shows MACD JUST Crossed. I think we've just entered Wave B.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    evil speculator 'Evil Omen' Alert:

    Dow Ind are up 66.66

  • de3600

    anyone shorting gs

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    oops –up

  • katzo7

    There is always a holiday everyday in the US. We don't have to work, tho gov. supports us.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Adjusted to real inflation, gold should be at like $6000/oz compared to 1980. “

    Ugh… not that again. Yes, yes – you are right, but we are NOT at $6000. Whenever I hear 'xxxx 'should' be there' I start to laugh. There's obviously a reason it's not. The rest is mental masturbation.

    It's not impossible that Gold might breach the 1007.5 high, but at this stage the wave count indicates it might have topped there. So, until I see a breach I play the short side.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NICE 🙂

  • Mr. L

    I was, got out of it this morning on that dip, how're you playing it?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm in it already – it seems to be accepting these lows, so I'm staying in the trade.

  • katzo7

    WTF??
    LOL
    point up for not gay
    point down for bi

  • MaxPainMan

    cool.
    adding some /6J

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    got another 1-2 bucks to go before hitting resistance i think. pretty good entry though if you arent too concerned with picking the exact top

  • rosocecasita

    And timing is EVERYTHING.

    From Reminiscence of a stock operator, when Livingston saw the crash coming, he was still years ahead of time. (Think it was 23/24 hard to say with the writing.)

    and anyone who says you can't time the market usually also says the markets are efficient.

  • Ed

    I'm actually long GS right now and just moving my stops up. My target is 96-97 before I think it might turn. At that level we'll have to see what the S&P does (probably around the 740 level). Will it go back down ? more than likely.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    LOL – it was an exchange w/ Bala when the 3 of us were talkin' about all-in short last night

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB
  • rosocecasita

    Eugene is where it's at!

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    LOLOLOLOL….
    I wish we had voice posting instead of the written word. The delivery comes off so much better through vocal ranges……

  • WiredPirate

    I like that 735 held with negative divergence from yesterdays highs so I filled in the other half of my TZA(84.31), TYP(58.59) and picked up a few FAZ April 65 Calls(11.50 lottery tickets) I am fully short for a swing to the lows of 5 of 5 with a stop on a close above SPX 752 in case Mole's Primary (2) scenario gets legs. I fully recognize the bull trap could continue to 750 but the risk reward looks good to me at this level and I am willing to board the train at this location to make sure it doesn't leave without me.

    Continued GL to all.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&b=5&g

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    well then, we're neighbors….
    head north 2 hours

  • Zeusmith

    I know Moley. I just post this commentary for perspective on how unpriced the asset is relative to the financial turmoil we're experiencing. I have no doubt gold is going to explode higher – it' just a matter of when – could be months, could be years..

    Anyway, the way to play gold IMO is to buy short dated puts and short term swing trades within the range. Right now, i leaning to shorting GLD between $940-$960 for the short term. But bear in mind, at any point we could see a massive move in gold should an Eastern European country default and start a chain reaction. There still is ST risk.

  • rosocecasita

    That's cool!

    Love'n the Oregon (Former Californian). Got my degree down at OIT.

    I've been figuring that Oregon would do really well in the break down of everything. Good food, water, Hydro.

    (Don't spread it around though lol)

  • TraderTamas

    This rally is getting weak: http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec

    Also check out XLF today compared to the S&P… getting weaker. Financials will lead the market down from these levels.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NUOVUS POSTUS.

  • http://www.appleseedinfo.org riflewoman

    Its looking to me like 5 waves up on the 60 min ES, gap fill from Mar2, and a 61.8% retracement from 2/26 high to 3/6 lows and this rise has been on decreasing volume. Time for a turn around?

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Add more to my short /NQM9 @1141.00

  • Fujisan

    Just a reminder – EWT applies not only the price movements but also the timeframe. SPY was in W3 wave for 19 trading days. If we expect at least 38.2% correction (price wise), we can expect SPY to be in W4 at least 7 trading days (19 days x 38.2% = 7 days). 2 more days, guys!

  • OldChicago

    Rising wedge on GS. May pull back for the short-term. Financial seems very bullish and is leading the market today.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    LOL…I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in Oregon who isn't
    an ex-Californian.
    I did the Bay Area for five years…..(CHI, NY and LA before that)

    It rains 9 months per year here. Clearly it takes a special person to
    handle the weather. I personally love it.

  • rosocecasita

    When the Oregon trail was being crossed, there was a fork in the road.

    South to Cali had a pile of gold and had a sign that said “Oregon”.

    Hence all the people that can read ended up in Oregon.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I gave up my SPY April calls and bought the 70 April puts.

  • fuw

    heh, yeah might be. I already have some faz, and plan to buy some more when we top. I will try to keep my cool until later in the afternoon.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I have the same problem, as do many traders 🙂

    patience is a virtue. best of luck

  • Steve

    Thanks mole, just don't call me an useless leech..: )

  • CC rider

    Long SPX at 728.Rally into OPEX is what's for dinner.

  • Jack

    cut nad log @ 31

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    Mole one question though….

    Couldn't we still be in Wave A of minor 4 ? Since the retracement wasn't that big, and in the cash index there's no retrace couldn't we still be in A ?

    Here's a count of Filipe: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_XX1K8deKkBE/Sbkff_nrQ

  • OldChicago

    This count is more obvious if you look at the hourly SPX.

  • Jack

    out @ 36.

  • http://jogarembolsa.blogspot.com salvadorveiga

    thats an hourly chart that i posted