Now Reading
Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Mar. 2, 2010
340

Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Mar. 2, 2010

by The MoleMarch 2, 2010

by gmak

Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Now, on to something more relevant.

EQUITY

SPX daily shows clearly that the Gartley pattern is not the valid one for a topping action. TD Waves says that SPX is still in a B wave of an ABC correction (on a bullish trend), or in wave 2 of the start of 5 waves down. SPX did close above the 1114 number and TD Pressure is not above the red oversold line, yet. This suggests continued upward momentum – even if it is on declining volume.  The next possible resistance leel is the trend line “Since Aug 17” which is around 1128 for today, and 1129 for tomorrow. 

If for some reason, this market continues up for a 76% retrace of the X – A segment, then that value would be around SPX = 1125.45. If the trend line is in play, then this number is nonsense, and vice versa. If the FIB is in play, then the trend line will not be reached.

The High was at 1150.45, and there is a TD resistance point there. TD support comes in at SPX = 1046.50. These are both levels that need to be breached and re-tested from above /below for the the trend to continue in that particular direction.

Asia was green except for small isolated pockets. IN fact, most of the world is green over the last 24 hours.  Only Portugal and Austria are in the rd – and just barely.  The big news is that the DAX didn’t gap up, but continued a 45 degree steady trend line up and has put a pin above 4750 – looking for support and consolidation. There is that big juicy gap fro 5600 to 5650 – but the DAX has put in a higher low and a higher high (this is the game that the Gartley pattern is based on, and it brings in the last of the momentum players at a top  – and leads to distribution, followed by the road down).

ES was as flat as Olive Oyl, until 6 AM and then it pushed through one resistance pivot to test R2 – failing for now. PIvots:

  • R2: 1122.75 = The high point for ES overnight. TD has put in a local 5 wave up, or C wave in an ABC correction on a down trend. There is a TD resistance level above at 1125.50 suggesting that is where any aggressive upward action might be turned back.  This level was also the TD resistance point through the first half of December, and the high level of consolidation at that point before the next ramp up.
  • R1: 1118.75 =  ES cut through this over the last hour without hesitation. It looks like this level could come back as support for today.
  • Neutral: 1111.50 = Was below support on the overnight. Note that ES got lifted by a push from the 9 pMA on the 4 hour chart and on the 5 min chart. Volume began to grow just before the AM ramp, eased off – and then came the pop.
  • S1: 1107.50 = Quite far down given the sentiment.
  • S2: 1100 = Don’t even think about it. There isn’t any news that would be tradeable today – so the bets are likely one-directional.

FX

I can’t say it any better than forexlive.com, from yesterday:

The market should get a short-term lift from the Greek news but it may soon go hunting for another target like Portugal or Spain, putting the EU to the test. A move above 1.3700 will take the immediate downside pressure off of EUR/USD and open the way for a rebound to the 1.3850 area. 1.3585 is the next hurdle EUR/USD needs to overcome in the near-term.

ON the 3 min chart, there is a pivot and resistance at 1.3562 for the short term. Howver, it looks like EUR is being bid up steadily. CAD is a lot stronger – by about 70 bps since midnight.

Looking at the EUR daily chart, the currency put another pin through the 62% FIB since midnight. You know the drill – if it has enough holes in it, the support will tear and the security will fall through. TD support resides below at 1.3369. Overhead reisistance in the channel at FIB (50%) – not to be confused with the High – Low FIB, is at around 1.3575. The channel FIB below is at 1.35. IF there is range trading, this is where it will happen. Look for breaches of either for a mood shift, as it seems the market is awaiting a positive resolution to the Greece situation.

As I type, EUR is making an assault on bot the neutral pivot and the TD resistance at 1.3565. A shift in sentiment on the EUR would be indicated by the pivot becoming support and consolidation beginning. Pay attention because it seems the EUR might be a leading indicator today for the SPX. (but like CO2 and warming, the causality direction is confusing).

NEWS

More tungsten in gold. See ZH for the German video.  EM stocks have reached a 5 week high – who says there are no risk-takers left. Australia raised their bank rate. Canada is really toying with the housing bubble fate as they are rumoured to keep the lending rate at the lowly 0.25% but jawbone the market that an increase will be coming later on. That can sure gets kicked a lot, lately.

DATA

Nothing until 17:00 EST = ABC consumer confidence. Domestic vehicle sales, total vehicle sales.

 

I’m short the DXY and not for a day trade. I keep looking at the record oversold condition on the EUR. I know the market can remain…. blah blah blah. I’m looking at using ES as an indirect hedge on the postiion. If DXY shows signs of consistent strength – ie not gaming – then I might put on an ES short to offset the losses. The plan would be to ride ES down, and either close out the DXY, or the ES if it looks like there would be another wave up for it – and ride the remaining security in the trade.

Cheers.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • gmak

    SPX daily shows clearly that the Gartley pattern is not the valid one for a topping action. TD Waves says that SPX is still in a B wave of an ABC correction (on a bullish trend), or in wave 2 of the start of 5 waves down. SPX did close above the 1114 number and TD Pressure is not above the red oversold line, yet. This suggests continued upward momentum – even if it is on declining volume. The next possible resistance leel is the trend line “Since Aug 17? which is around 1128 for today, and 1129 for tomorrow.

    If for some reason, this market continues up for a 76% retrace of the X – A segment, then that value would be around SPX = 1125.45. If the trend line is in play, then this number is nonsense, and vice versa. If the FIB is in play, then the trend line will not be reached.

    The High was at 1150.45, and there is a TD resistance point there. TD support comes in at SPX = 1046.50. These are both levels that need to be breached and re-tested from above /below for the the trend to continue in that particular direction.

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-265B_4B8CFB72.html

    ES was as flat as Olive Oyl, until 6 AM and then it pushed through one resistance pivot to test R2 – failing for now. PIvots:

    R2: 1122.75 = The high point for ES overnight. TD has put in a local 5 wave up, or C wave in an ABC correction on a down trend. There is a TD resistance level above at 1125.50 suggesting that is where any aggressive upward action might be turned back. This level was also the TD resistance point through the first half of December, and the high level of consolidation at that point before the next ramp up.
    R1: 1118.75 = ES cut through this over the last hour without hesitation. It looks like this level could come back as support for today.
    Neutral: 1111.50 = Was below support on the overnight. Note that ES got lifted by a push from the 9 pMA on the 4 hour chart and on the 5 min chart. Volume began to grow just before the AM ramp, eased off – and then came the pop.
    S1: 1107.50 = Quite far down given the sentiment.
    S2: 1100 = Don’t even think about it. There isn’t any news that would be tradeable today – so the bets are likely one-directional

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-D64B_4B8CFBA4.html

    ON the 3 min chart, there is a pivot and resistance at 1.3562 for the short term. Howver, it looks like EUR is being bid up steadily. CAD is a lot stronger – by about 70 bps since midnight.

    Looking at the EUR daily chart, the currency put another pin through the 62% FIB since midnight. You know the drill – if it has enough holes in it, the support will tear and the security will fall through. TD support resides below at 1.3369. Overhead reisistance in the channel at FIB (50%) – not to be confused with the High – Low FIB, is at around 1.3575. The channel FIB below is at 1.35. IF there is range trading, this is where it will happen. Look for breaches of either for a mood shift, as it seems the market is awaiting a positive resolution to the Greece situation.

    As I type, EUR is making an assault on bot the neutral pivot and the TD resistance at 1.3565. A shift in sentiment on the EUR would be indicated by the pivot becoming support and consolidation beginning. Pay attention because it seems the EUR might be a leading indicator today for the SPX. (but like CO2 and warming, the causality direction is confusing).

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-13C4_4B8CFBD9.html

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-5195_4B8CFBF4.html

  • gatopeich

    Thanks for the heads up!

    BTW, my last short became a 1-tick scalp and now I am long, for the first time since I can remember!

  • Onorio

    Im long on the EUR too, but only for a daytrade…im with you that the EUR is due for some significant bounce but wave structure tell me another low might be on the table.

  • Onorio

    By the way, i`ve been using the VIX trade setup in FX and seem to work just fine!

  • gmak

    Hence my thoughts on a hedge to avoid going in and out. Waves lie, TA lies. Only the market is the truth – however unpalatable. IF ES is trailing EUR, then putting on a hedge can pay off against sudden moves on the EUR. IF ES is leading EUR, then I should get some warning before EUR takes off in the wrong direction and be able to close out the position, or some other such illusion.

    In any case, I'm going to try this with risk money – which would not hurt me should it all be lost.

    Cheers.

  • gmak

    How do you use it?

  • Onorio

    At this point i still believe we should paint one more high in ES, probably while EUR bounce back.

  • Onorio

    I wait for a hourly close outside the BB and a close back inside above previous bar close to enter long, the inverse for short.

  • gmak

    The market seems to think that we will grind higher to test the Jan high. As always, the market will disappoint the most, so I don't believe that we will see that Jan. high. I think you are bang on with your assessment. I wonder if tomorrow will be a “sell the news” on the EUR?

  • gmak

    You wait for the signal on the VIX, and use that to take a position in the EUR? Am I understanding that correctly? What are the parameters for your VIX chart (5 min?) and the BB (21,2)?

    Thanks. Sounds very intersting. If you give me the parameters, I'll try to follow along.

  • Onorio

    No, no! I use the VIX setup but on the EUR or other currencies.

    The same 3 things we use on the VIX reversal, i use on currencies.

    A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA)
    A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal
    A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

  • fisheggs

    Quite right GMAK. Blogland has bears scratching their heads with the other hand on the go long button. The perfect point to inflict the most pain.
    I am looking for a convincing breach above TL form the 07 highs which we kissed back in Jan and paid the price. Lets see what happens at the next attempt.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no hamster time today, judt this

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-EE39_4B8D044B.html

  • gmak

    Ok. I thought you had something more mustical going on. lol. Thanks.

    ________________________________

  • Onorio

    That`s the 2nd option….but that would mean EUR will crack into pieces and we will se a 1000pip move in the next 2 weeks or so :)

    Fuck, better change my € for some bucks!

  • gmak

    This is just the standard BB reversal. I know I 've posted links to the methodology before. I prefer the 21,2 bollinger for this. for short term trading, I think the 8 or 13 minute chart works well against the 21,2 bollinger.

    ________________________________

  • Schwerepunkt

    150-pip rise on Euro since 0400h. That does not happen every day.

  • gmak

    CAD is looking attractive. It's still a real currency with resource backing. AUD just raised their interest rates. It might be a good place to hide from any implosion of the EUR.

    ________________________________

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    tens visto os meus numeros para o euro?

  • gatopeich

    Or change your EUR for some gold!
    But wait, our entry window just passed by: http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/9459/jshothb

  • Onorio

    Gmak, using the VIX setup on the EUR this morning is giving me a 100 pip move so far….might close it soon, since we`re at the top BB.

  • gatopeich

    Is it Euro going up or Dollar down? Cause Gold is also offering a pretty picture today (http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/9459/jshothb…)

  • Onorio

    Nao tenho “blogado”, ultimamente n tenho tido mto tempo. Diz la!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Did you see the story on bloomberg last night about gold? Sorros saying Gold is in a bubble and that's why he's buying? similar comments from an analyst. He said: “bubbles are good.” They also mentioned Goldman's prediction for $1250-$1300 for Gold.

    Incredible.

  • gatopeich

    Looking like we are gonna have an euphoric gap up on US open. Watch out if you're long after that, just remember what happened a few hours after Thursday awful (-ly nice) gap down.

    (I am long now, on a swing trade).

  • SH^RK

    Behaving today so that maybe i can be taken off of hamster “shyt list”. He has clearly lead by example and shows us what good conduct is by adding people to shyt list. Thanks Hamster! Happy Tuesday everyone! with love, SH^RK

  • gatopeich

    So the wuestion would be: when is he selling what gold he got?

  • gmak

    HEre's another trading algorithm, from one perspective. Reverse for the sell perspective.

    1 Wait until a bar pushes above the BB. THe next bar has to be the opposite colour and completely inside the first bar.
    2. Sell if the third bar opens inside as well. PUt a stop (on ES) 1 point above.
    3. Sell half the position at a 1.5 point move in your direction. Tighten the stop for the remaining position.

  • SH^RK

    thanks gmak

  • gmak

    He only icreased his postiion to less than 4% of the portfolio from about 3%. Hardly a bet the house move.

  • Onorio

    tks Gmak

  • OldChicago

    EUR came off yesterday AH, but ES didn't move much. This morning ES turned toward upper range, ES rallied along.

    It seems to me that the Sterling was pounded on, miners propped up in England, pulling FTSE & ES higher.

    This feels like market wants to rally, independent of FX. just a theory.

  • OldChicago

    Thanks for all your tips and comments.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then get yourself out of it, some of my best online friends got some stern warnings at certain times. just share your reasoning and don't flame

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    euro looks 1.1 bound, but 1.363 is the opening to 1.38x and 1.387 opens the way to 1.43, 1.43 must hold or it's 1.5 1.9

  • gatopeich

    Who hit 'pause'?

  • WTFed

    When it comes to EW counts, Mole is doing a kick ass job. Not even EWI is seeing things as early as he is.

  • skynard

    Looks more and more like a gap and trap, IMO. We'll see.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Bob.

    Are there any UK companies that might benefit from the weak GBP once we're past the sovereign debt “issue”? Does the UK make anything that is real anymore?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did we hit 1120.95?, that's an upper bb

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    better, we hit the upper bb13 daily

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we almost hit upper bb on spx:vix

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    agree, but careful, this is also a possible climb the upper bb setup….

  • gatopeich

    EURUSD melts down, indexes and Gold drift up 😛

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    stochastics still bullish

  • amokta

    Scooby-dooby-P3-do…where are you ?!!!

    Last nights EWI STU: “….My guess is that this particular non-confirmation <re SPX> will be erased before wave 2 ends, which means that the Dow will poke above the February 19 high.”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    below 119.65 we should head for 1101

  • bobthehorse

    Most of the FTSE100 are multi-national or foreign now. Oils, Pharma are big $ earners. Unilever, etc. are global as are most of the booze and fags companies.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    error, bad bb, still bulish

  • gatopeich

    Correction: indexes frozen and gold taking off!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx first stochastic crossover heading for 1115 spx and then backtest

  • gmak

    I should add that the initial stop is above the high of the second bar. But, it can be adjusted to suit each trader's individual risk appetite.

  • skynard

    Agree, gap fill

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    backtesting

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    double bulish breach on backtest… still more upside likely

  • Schwerepunkt

    Any good long (not now) candidates you could recommend whose products are primarily made in the UK with GBP-cost of production, but sold globally for $s? Pharma I suppose. GSK. Anybody else?

    Edit: Much of BP's costs would be in the local currency where their production is, so the currency play is not as pronounced.

  • rosocecasita

    I don't know when, but one day, there will be an upday for gold & silver, and a down day for the indexes.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Rolls Royce engines?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Cadbury's chocolates?

  • bobthehorse

    Less obvious ones would be Autonomy and Icap – both of which I like.

  • Schwerepunkt

    didn't they get bought out, or something?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster
  • skynard

    Would like to see a ride to 1090 min.

  • CorporalCarrot

    well lads, I told you I would probably get stopped out at a turning point. My stops are always too perfect :)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gap fill to 1116 or will they stop it before?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no party till 1111 is breached

  • vasiltrade

    THEY WILL NOT STOP AT ALL! lol

  • skynard

    Here we go, and where it stops nobody knows.

  • spudthorpe

    Always place your stops slightly above where TA tells you (and at a fractional number) since institutions love to run stops set by “obvious” TA, and they know people tend to like round-number stops. I don't even use stops in overnight futures trading because any reasonably placed stop can be run so easily.

  • vasiltrade

    sell on stop at 1117.25for 2 short esp and stop if done 1125…go for sleeep…see u later

  • randomwalker

    Guten tag all-

    Here is KST on SPY:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YTNkNjNlOWE

    Wkly momentum is the crux, IMO as its flirting with the zero line

  • Schwerepunkt

    Can you explain? It is a little difficult to see.

  • gatopeich

    Gold just broke loose. Nice action. Should have held a bit more.

  • Nightwind

    My spx target is 1126ish. This is the distance of the IHS move on hrly charts

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    The bullishness is about to come to an end. I am fully short at this point.

  • skynard

    They never seem to hit those targets. Just saying….

  • hamstershytlist

    market looking weak

  • hamstershytlist

    everyone please behave

  • randomwalker

    George Soros' doubling up on his gold bet when it's in a 'bubble' is maybe a symptom of his switch from Scotch to marijuana:

    http://bit.ly/bnowwC

    He should buy Whistler he would feel at home there!

  • Nightwind

    Believe me,,, I know. I will reverse and go short (10%) if the wave begins looking weak in that area

  • gatopeich

    I don't know where this is going but I can feel Europe just wants to go down and get a rest from this nonsense market.

  • randomwalker

    Sorry – I had to shrink to fit seven panes- the short-term KST is the current little spike, the intermediate is the counter-trend bear, and long-term is the primary trend, which is UP as you can see.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Greek PM is speaking. So far nothing definitive about spending cuts. I think he's afraid of street violence.

  • gmak

    TD has an interesting approach to stops. The bar has to close above their stop. The next bar needs to open higher and close higher before the stop becomes valid. In other words, it has to be a mental stop unless you incorporate some programming.

  • Nightwind

    xpecting strong upward move and overthrowing hourly channel

  • ricebowl

    Put/call ratio is low — in the 0.7s. Looks like the bulls are (almost) all-in.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Looking at just Ford & Intel hourly candles, looks like a blow off event. IMHO.

  • Onorio

    Monster rsi divergence in the 10m chart

  • skynard

    Time to make a nice shooting star!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think we had the shooting star overnight already. If we stay below 1122.75ES, that is confirmation. Looks like they're going to take it close . . .

  • skynard

    That's right someone posted that this morning. Thanks

  • Nightwind

    SSH…haven't seen any posts from Raised by Wolves. Is he still kicking?

  • gatopeich

    Finished my scalp of the day, yours is longer long so you can crash this baby all you want ;-).

  • Gold_Gerb

    He lost his purpose, the Matrix removed the program.

  • MMM___Soylent

    New 52week high in IWM.

  • OldChicago

    We turn here? There have been a lot of divergence this morning – DJT weak, DJI/NAZ not as bullish as SPX. $RUT feels like wanting to reaching the upper trend line on the daily.

  • Nightwind

    He'll come back after the blue pill wears off.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    ok, I'm taking Bob's advice and getting short here. He has been calling for this level for weeks. I'm starting with BIDU, SHLD, and ^RUT.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Spending a lot of time here above 1121. Nerve-wracking. We (I) need a waterfall.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    Bob, hope you're still bearish here? Or did you change your mind?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you are not talking to Prechter – are you?

    He is probably in South America by now – he is wanted by too many dimwitted “traders”

  • randomwalker

    Oops..Whistler is off the auction block now

  • Gold_Gerb

    I wonder how bananaben is doing? 1122, yuck.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Last I saw, he said he had not yet gone short up here, but was thinking about it when/if Europe goes higher.

  • skynard

    The bulls look to have run out of powder. Molee you should have waited a few more days before leaving. HEHEHEHE!

  • amokta

    What 'up' with gold – is there a shortage?

    p.s. if you put a stop-loss on an option, is it based on the option premium price, or the price of underlying (or can you choose) – i so far have not used stops with options

  • alexdg

    So… the day will close below 1123/25. BOD will be 1117. Overnight futures will push this baby above 1125 et voila. Broken resistance will become the new support. After this few remaining bearish bets will be covered and new highs for the year will be reached. CNBC will cheer on about the non-existing recovery.

  • Nightwind

    Hope that SPX up gap closes today. Worst case scenerio is that it could be “point if recognition” of a 3 of a 3 in an upswing. So far , the market internals are weak and don't support it, compared to the price move.

  • string01

    premium bid/ask

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm actually missing some of the elliot talk bantied about.

    soylent orange will rise again! (someday)

  • amokta

    thanks!

  • skynard

    Maybe we go back down to LOD to complete an intraday head on SPX (1117). LS complete.

  • alexdg

    stuck at 1121… for the last hour! i'm impressed. After the pre-market and first hour run, the flat is getting flatter these days. Since the last time we were at 1086 (last thursday) there hasn't been a single mentionable hourly down candle. What are the odds?

  • Schwerepunkt

    A little down move now, but the Euro is holding steady. Not promising until Euro rolls over again.

  • Nightwind

    Market : After surviving the sinking of the Titanic (2008 Crash), the last remaining survivors find themselves washed ashore on Shutter Island (asylum for criminally insane economics) with Bernanke as the warden.

  • Onorio

    I see a BIG wedge in hourly chart, we need to break 1118…first target will be 1100

  • Tronacate

    Anybody short NTRI……..

  • skynard

    Let the festivities begin! Q's on 60m back in overbought teritory.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Frak, just make sure the story ends after one season. ok?
    ;-D

  • spudthorpe

    Some brokers (including mine, OptionsXpress) let you place contingent orders, in which case you can set your option stop contingent on the underlying price. Otherwise by default an option stop applies to the option price, not the underlying price.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You got to keep your emotions/expectations in check. I remember you cheering when I left as you were sure that we would tank on Monday. I'm not sure what goes on in your head but the only meaning behind my departure is that I needed a few days off.

    That said – I am very disappointed – not a single fucking flower out here.

  • Nightwind

    There in contract negotiations with the Treasury for more episodes LOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    he posted in last thread

  • gsavli
  • Gold_Gerb

    Dude, being the d3sert gerbil that I am.
    YOu need warmth to get desert flowers.
    as in my trades, and your forecasts – just a bit early.
    ;-D

  • Schwerepunkt

    Maybe it's the wrong season?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we broke ma208 minutes, supposed to get to now 1115

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I keep trying to talk to them but all I get back are pouty responses. I don't think they take me seriously.

  • Falcon
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sorry, not 1115, 1116,x

    1115,x should anounce a slide

  • gsavli

    sorry about that, i'm not that cheap. here you go:

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-1882_4B8D4101.html

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mole; are you going to update (move the arrow) the “big picture” graph? Or is that too inflexible a view of the market? If not, you might want to expunge it.

  • Gold_Gerb

    ..maybe update the t-shirt pic too – now in colors!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yeah, he needs to find a female model and hose her down.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's not much but it was in last thread just this lazy autochannell chart with some paralels

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-EE39_4B8D044B.html

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    seems like we're flatlining and repeating yeasterday, a day contained bay a bb104 minutes

  • fa_q

    Stopping by real fast as all my shorts have been filled. My basis for here is 1103.75 (1.5x), 1820.4 (1.5x) and 642.25 (0.5x). My personal basis is about 10 pts higher in ES and 17 pts higher in NQ but I wasn't able to post my exit on Thursday so no big deal. So I'm feeling a little pain on this trade so far but nothing horrendous. My closed positions for 2010 on this site are +42 ES and +61 NQ so I've given some back here. I'll be traveling for the next 2 wks but will try to update when I close out my positions. I do believe this is a terminal move as evidenced by the blowoff top in the Rut. Hope you all make some money.

  • amokta

    I know you all want Anna to model this !

  • amokta

    cheers, thats useful to know, i have optionsxpress account also

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    “I wasn't able to post my exit on Thursday”

    Not quite certain that you were “not able to post” – I believe – you DID and you said you DID NOT exit ANYTHING

    I might be old and broke, but I have good memory (so I think)

  • Schwerepunkt

    I remember him posting at night that he did exit and then re-shorted saving himself 20-points.

  • alexdg

    http://pragcap.com/guru-outlook-paolo-pellegrini
    The url says it all.

    Pellegrini’s favorite trades in 2010 are the following four:

    Short US fixed income
    Short US equities
    Short US dollar
    Long commodities

    One of Pellegrini’s primary concerns is the stimulus based growth occurring in China. He says China is one of the greatest risks to the recovery. He says:

    “I was in China late last year. One particularly enlightening meeting was with the top official of a major bank, who pointed to all the empty office buildings surrounding his own, observing that his country’s stimulus money would have been better spent paying people to stay home”

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    come on guys and gals – pick it up!

    You need to give more likes to those who talk bearish trades – you would be able to sell those and devide when you all run out of money trading your bias

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    where is that site that keeps tab of original disqus posts? 😉

  • WTFed

    Is it raining?

  • Schwerepunkt

    😉

  • gregn

    While I have been trading options for some time, I still learn new things about them every once in a while. I just read that options will only be affected by the theta (negative if long option, converse for short) if the price does not change. Let's say you have SPY 110s with a theta of say -.50 and SPY is trading at 105 and closes up the day at 106. Will you lose the 50 cents per each share (100/option)? I have always thought you lost theta kicked in at close regardless of the outcome of the day.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro en fuego. Damn, nearly 2-cents from LOD>HOD.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Hello Dave

    Today is as far as a backtest is allowed IMHO, further upside means party is over for bears or very much so… do you think they can do it?

  • gsavli

    I'm fully short by here too, with slightly lower entry price.
    have a safe journey – you know what to use, for it to be safe, right.

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    my 1096 swing short got fully hedged
    with a long position from 1116 triggered overnight
    which i will take off when 1126 is seen

    core short from 1096 is obviously seeing
    max pain

    since there's low volume and no news today, i'm hoping they'll run it up to 1126 and get that target out of the way

  • Schwerepunkt

    Same boat but I'm not hedged in my trading account. I have long-term money sitting in other accounts, though most of it is just sitting in cash.

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    “sitting in cash” => long DX :)

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    In Soviet Russia, market shorts you!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know — even cash is an investment decision.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi chicken, did you see my comment to your caevet ursus?

  • Gold_Gerb

    well, it's March 02, and mr. bradley signal has let me down.
    😀

  • tradejane

    I saw so many bearish articles on the Euro the past few days, including the first page of a widely read newspaper, that even I was tempted to go long.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Will you double down at 1126?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Just went back and saw it – where you said backtest in progress then drop? Could be. I don't have a clear enough picture right now one way or the other, hence I'm not in any short term trades. I've pushed all my timeframes out to weeks/months. To David's point, I've found that the best way to remove my biases from the equation is to remove myself from the equation as much as possible, so that means longer timeframes.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did you see my edit to your latest post? caevet ursus, bears beware gives zilch on google, you may borrow it if we break higher 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ladies and rats, we're at make or break again (stochastic's wise and ma208 minutes wise)

    faites vos jeux!

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Update on Chicken Oscillator readings (daily candles) for anyone following my previous posts.

    The $VIX set up I wrote about here http://bit.ly/b287bq has FAILED

    The backtest I warned about here http://bit.ly/9uM8tL is severely threatened. What I mean by that is that the CO has crossed over on the daily timeframe, but just by a smidge.

    So to sum up, FFFFFFFUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • WTFed

    RUT double-top nail-biter

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    i might add if we get really good participation there
    but i usually don't “double-down”

    i only trade my thesis

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    as i wrote earlier, bradley signals are always +/- a lot of days.
    just hope that the bradley “turn” wasn't a bottom rather than a top!

  • I_got_Prechterized

    oh oh- dollar starting to roll over. this has the makings of further ramping. I'm bailing on shorts at 1126. commodities and gold are flying.

  • Nightwind

    Out of longs. Flat..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    as i mentioned to dave some posts ago, this is as far ar we can go without bulls winning….

  • I_got_Prechterized

    anybody have a count here that works?

  • randomwalker

    It's waiting for non-disastrous sales nos. now for an excuse to break through resistance at HOD then target 1127.78 IMO

  • PRSGuitars

    Would you mind saying more about that?

  • PRSGuitars

    Same.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    seems about time to put a fork in the P3 theory. Will Prechter be coming out with a “go 300% short” call in the near future?

  • gregn

    My post was more of a question than a statement. I was asking for verification of the idea that options are not affected by theta if the closing price is different than the opening price.

  • bananaben

    Moles Panzer divisions have been smashed and the Maginot line breached. There cannot be any bears left. I'm on the verge of bailing too.

  • alexdg

    First call for Ultra Short (x2) bet by Prechter was almost 4 months ago (back in November), somewhere in the 1090's.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    we're now approaching basically 80 straight points up in about 3 weeks with hardly a blip. You're telling me longs are still adding or initiating positions up here? Something just doesn't seem logical here. I know the market can stay irrational…. but this just doesn't add up. How can you apply any working counts to this nonsense?

  • alexdg

    I feel like your avatar of Bananaben. I'll cover above 1126… provably will happen overnight!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, 1123 is as much asd I can trust a fleeced bear, now we'll see if everyone buys PPT's picture or what, this is the place to short, further up is already bull land

  • Nightwind

    He never issued go 200% long at the March bottom.

  • alexdg

    Bingo!! look at the hourly charts. Not one down candle worth of mentioning.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm leaving for a while see you latter

  • Schwerepunkt

    that last spike was interesting. Euro did not confirm and we did not breach the HOD. Could that be it?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this is the maginot line itself, 1123, as i mentioned long ago when this drop started

  • I_got_Prechterized

    He never issued a “go long” call at all. He said get on the sidelines in cash. Somehow, he's credited with calling the bottom.

  • PRSGuitars

    Take it easy Grim. Stay safe and bring stories of travels and whores.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    stochastics about to reach decision line again, short now or shut up till 1250

  • randomwalker

    A crazy little thing called SLV:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ODhhNDcxM2Ut

    About to close out a v.small put position

  • bananaben

    This market is so rigged – liquidity continues to pour in from the Fed. When it fell 160 pts last week they called in the PPT and there was a huge spike in the ES erasing over 100 points. Why? Because that wasn't part of the plan – they wanted to squeeze harder. We are stubborn fools to try shorting this market. I'm still there but I need to see a reversal or something.

  • Nightwind

    STU did not call the bottom. They were about 2 weeks off after the move up

  • alexdg

    “The Maginot line” as a title brings on a very sad omen for the bear case. The germans (bulls in this case) just went around it (aka won't be breached during market hours). eheh

  • alexdg

    shut up == go long !

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, stochastics marginaly bearish again, we just need to break 1120 for a slide

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, no more “short higher” talks

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes they did…

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    ar eyou saying that sinc ewe are shorted – we ARE in Soviet Russia? Good thinking! Kvo-Kvo :)

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    ES is just briefly reacting to overnight globex high
    it could 2x top there but i think chances favor that it will get bought @1120
    and that 1126 needs to be seen

  • OldChicago

    VIX is as flat as a bed sheet. Breaking out soon, either way?

  • alexdg

    We need a black swan event to overwhelm the market in such a manner that not even the PPT can fight back. Of course that would be the mother of all crashes.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    keeping my fingers crossed, if more upside – will get on cash and take a break

  • alexdg

    May get you wish right now…

  • gsavli

    quality channel, made by GS HFTs:

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-DD9A_4B8D5787.html

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    remember my call a month ago? trust any retrace to 1123, no further, and then the “more evil” straight to 1047 and then….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if it breaks 1120 it's a safe short to 1104, then fight, 1103= 1090 then fight

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    all stochastics fully bearish, going for a shower

  • Onorio

    Ok, here`s the deal…

    EUR could had finished a (e) wave of a triangle with c=0.6*a

    SPX wedge could be complete too…

    tank now? LMAO

  • bananaben

    I agree. There are flocks of them all over the place but one truly evil one needs to come in right now. Until then I'm afraid we're hosed. Not that it's big enough but did that Harrisburg PA default or not. Everytime I read about these imminent defaults they seem to never happen. Do funds magically appear in their coffers from the Fed?

  • skynard

    New hi's right?

  • Onorio

    1104 at EOD would be sweet :)

  • alexdg

    God speed!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    and you absolutelly correct – you DO remember…but “at nigh” makes both trades take place in the PAST and
    1. no use for THIS community (except for those who WANTS to admire someone…not that I am saying fa_q does not deserve respect, I watched for a while – good trading indeed)
    2. If one has to use past tense – one better not to use it at all otherwise for smart people it sounds like bragging (and I don't think fa_q has desire to do it – therefore I am confused on porpose of posting of something that happened IN THE PAST)
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14708#comment-3685

  • fisheggs

    We are close to kissing the TL from 07
    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZjNjYTE4NmE

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    read above

  • alexdg

    The algo's are trading this market, and the bears are taken to the cleaners. CNBC anchors are the cheer leaders starring Steve “fatso – i'm not an economist – major in english lit.” Liesman , Senior Economic Affaris.
    2 days ago Jamie Dimon was quoted saying that “California worries me more than Greece”. Understandable, when you read stuff like this : Rep. Suzie Bassi: “Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010

  • Schwerepunkt

    Not defending or casting aspersions fa_q's way. I take him at his word. I also understand he can't post on the site all day long. Nobody knows the “truth” but fa_q himself, but I have no reason to doubt him either. GLTA

  • alexdg

    Anyone holding SPY, please dump now!!! :-)

  • OldChicago

    DJT spiked around 2pm after auto report, but retraced back below key support. This can't be positive as auto report was the only econ news reported today.

  • skynard

    OK, is the rally over?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Ask Lloyd. Do you have his number?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I certainly did not expect Thursday bounce, messed my allocation big time

  • bananaben

    Holy Shit! Mole's Third Panzer Division just struck the enemy a good blow. Reloading, aim, fire!!!

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    you mean the 3 pt crash? Much stronger retracement then I expected, its like the black swans little gray swan brother just stepped in ….

  • alexdg

    All hands on deck!!

    Funny stuff on ZH about Greece PM statements DJnewswire :

    PAPANDREOU ASKS GREEKS AROUND THE WORLD TO ASSIST EFFORT
    GREEK PM CALLS ON ALL GREEKS TO HELP SAVE COUNTRY
    PAPANDREOU SAYS MUST OPEN NEW CHAPTER IN GREEK HISTORY
    GREECE'S PROBLEMS ARE DEEPLY POLITICAL, SOCIAL, PAPANDREOU
    GREECE'S PROBLEMS AREN'T SOLELY ECONOMIC, PAPANDREOU SAYS
    GREEK PM SAYS SAVING ECONOMY IS FIRST STEP TO FUTURE
    PAPANDREOU SAYS STATE HAS NO MARGIN TO WASTE EVEN ONE EURO
    PAPANDREOU SAYS STATE IS BENDING UNDER WEIGHT OF WASTE

  • gsavli

    which ones do you use?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we already kissed the 07 TL, if we don't fall we're about to buttfuck the 07 TL

  • Scoops

    0 for 3 today. Got whipsawed out of this nice little drop by two friggin ticks. Meh.

  • Scoops

    RUT made a new high today. Lovely non confirmation we have here.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we broke lower bb!

  • PRSGuitars

    Always thought it'd take too much work to create a fake online persona + trade record. Also, if he's fake, he's got a decent timing record of showing up and crashing the market. I can attest to that.

    Dude has some skills (to put it very immaturely).

  • Gold_Gerb

    well, that stinks.
    ;-D

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just intraday stuff mainly 416, 208 minutes for slow, 208, 26 for fast

  • Schwerepunkt

    Very funny. Maybe now we'll see Greek kids selling baklava on the street corner to save Greece from financial ruin.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i didn't want to see thursday's bounce… worse

  • Gold_Gerb

    what?!?!
    oh, maybe you were joking!!?? (spx 1120 currently)
    I see no tank tracks!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    greedy…

  • Gold_Gerb

    you could always go back into RE.
    ;-D

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    correction, on the last one I forgot to multiply by 2 the second, it's 208, 52

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if they can break the fall from 1123 YES

  • aussiebinlaughin

    A few weeks back, there were a lot of people wishing for a higher entry point as they felt they missed the drop. Maybe this is it? To me like its about as good as it gets for a sell in that it has a decent risk/reward due to short ish stop. Im adding to my long term shorts, but not heavily as there will be plenty of places to bulk up on the way down. Its coming, have patience, keep the faith bears.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes I do, that's why a daily minimum of 1 shower (and deodorant afterwards) is mandatory for this bear

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    So far it's Poland, nothing to write home about, the enemy retook the upside of the BB

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, this is the place to go short if ever

  • alexdg

    I thought that all greek emigrants left Greece to get away from the government to start off with! Why would they send them money now? Given that the wealthy have moved over 50B eur out the local banks since December… they are so screwed. Tomorrow the PM will anounce cuts and people will burn his house down.

  • Schwerepunkt

    flag, ascending triangle or pennant? They can look so similar until they resolve.

  • alexdg

    the machine gun jammed… Will recommence heavy fire briefly.

  • randomwalker

    RUT is s-t overbought i-t looks quite bullish IMO..scary for bears

    http://www.screencast.com/t/OWE3NDA1

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    now we're talking!

  • AudioTactics

    Did someone just sacrifice a virgin to the bear gods?

  • skynard

    Bounce at 1117!

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    you put it in the very precise terms – yo uare so right

    It is not that I JUST did not expect it, but to make things worse – I did not want to believe it as it was happening

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    i was talking about myself and my error, nobody else

  • alexdg

    Break the 17.60 mark and will fall an aditional 2 points, back at closing price yesterday.
    Anyone with ammo, please fire at will.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just a (iv) of iii of 1 I assume

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no, but the numbers, the bb's and the stochastics were right

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    again, sonmce it is an emotioneles/faceless media (disqus comments0 – I'd like to once again – make it clear.

    Since on my blog the primary objective is not to screw your neighborg, but help your collegue – we only give gredits to forward looking statements – everything else, no matter how good trade/info is – if it is “PAST tense” it is as good as nothing except for bragging.

    I, personally, for example, never state like they do in a lot of blogs: 'How much money I have, how big I trade, what percentage of gold my shit has” etc – it is irrelevant to primary objective of TEAM WORK – otherwise people have blog only to make money selling ads and bribing no value…

    sorry for long speech – again – I don't doubt FA_Q's ability for a second (he feels like a true “natural”), but none has use for the “past tense”

  • PRSGuitars

    Fair enough. Those of us overnighters do tend to catch more of his stuff (and some others' stuff, say, my 133s… I know I post a lot at night and need to stop that, haha, get the info out to the masses).

  • MMM___Soylent

    VIX action is turbulent as Mole posted on “Epiphany” and declining vol-ume resembles late September of '08. Maybe somethin', maybe nothin'. Just sayin'.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    leaving for dinner, better that way…

  • chronographics

    oops – sorry

  • tradejane

    TOS pros question: Is it possible to generate a chart of your “equity curve” on TOS like they do in Tradestation? Thanks.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Yeah, I'm having a pop.

  • Gold_Gerb

    45 minutes to market close, 40 comments shy of 300.

    EDIT: it's gonna be close.

  • MMM___Soylent

    Doing my part.

  • gsavli

    overbought looks bullish? I mean, it could still easily mean further up movement in a strong trend, but it's definitely not bullish and scary for bears.

  • PRSGuitars

    Have been nagging them about visual representation of PnL for a while. Would LOVE a delta graph over time (or a net alpha over time) to see how I performed relative to SPX (was I shorting properly? adjusting on dips? etc).

    They JUST got hotkeys (something I have been screaming at sosnoff about for like, a yr and a half… not just me I'm sure, but happy to see it come to fruition!).

  • WTFed

    39

  • Gold_Gerb

    thnx.
    btw, do you prefer green or orange?

  • alexdg

    John Murphy post :

    50 DAY AVERAGES ARE EXCEEDED … The ability of major U.S. stock indexes to rally back above their 50-day moving averages has improved the market's short-term trend picture. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 closing above its 50-day average for two consecutive days although the line itself is still flat. [Short-term EMA combinations also appear to be turning positive]. The SPX has also moved well above the 62% retracement line measured from its January high to its February low. That's a sign of strength. Chart 2 shows the NYSE Composite Index clearing its 50-day line today. It's the last index to do that. The NYA has also broken through a “neckline” drawn along the 7100 level. That turns its short-term trend back up again and and erases much of the January/February chart damage.

  • Gold_Gerb

    and volume? no mention of volume.
    that's it – I'm ready to throw tomatoes at Murphy!

  • skynard

    For a minute there VIX was broke.

  • Gold_Gerb

    brokeVIX mountain.
    [rhetorical only]

  • alexdg

    NYAD LINE HITS NEW HIGH … The market has something else going in its favor this week. The NYSE Advance-Decline line has hit a record high. Chart 3 compares the NYAD (green line) to the NYSE Composite Index (black line) since last October. The two lines usually trend in the same direction. The ability of the NYAD to exceed its January high reduces some of the risk of a market downturn. That's because the NYAD usually turns down first at market peaks. Its ability to hit a new record high is a positive sign. A lot of that strength is coming from small cap stocks. Chart 4 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index already challenging its January high. Upside leadership by small caps is a positive sign for the market since it shows traders willing to assume more risk. It's also a positive for the NYAD because there are more small caps in the market than large caps.

  • Tronacate

    Nice fake breakout up on IYR…….now it needs a good thrashing

  • Gold_Gerb

    Tronocate! wow, you are here.
    hey, I'm an old fashion guy. got my silver filling replace with white yesterday.
    😉

  • alexdg

    Dow negative territory, SPX is almost there.

  • Tronacate

    Cool…..I'm here most of the time…….just quiet some days

  • Tronacate

    Hopefully this completes ABC up of 2 and 3 starts soon

  • Gold_Gerb

    15 comments to go, 30 minutes to close.
    Hammie's at the dinner table.
    now is your chance Shark.
    ;-D

  • alexdg

    lolol
    30 min sell-off session, hopefully :)

  • Tronacate

    NQ shows nice distribution candles on the 30 min……..need a complete red finish

  • Gold_Gerb

    as long as Mole doesn't show up, and clean post.
    we will MAKE IT.

  • chronographics

    Uptrend line close to breaking down on hourly SP HO

  • MMM___Soylent

    MMM…. Orange.

  • Onorio

    Oh yeah beibih! Come to daddy! 😀

  • Gold_Gerb

    EOD profit taking, I hate these uphill dips.

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    I'd like to see SPY not close the gap up today. I think that makes a gap down tomorrow more likely. But if we close right at 111.89 where we closed yesterday then I think this is just profit taking.

  • Gold_Gerb

    I agree, island reversals are quite the rage now-days.

  • Onorio

    Im planing to do the same in the next minutes…4 pts in SPX and 100pips in EUR, not bad today.

  • Gold_Gerb

    congrats.
    winnings go up with participation on this board.
    😉

  • Gold_Gerb

    Market closed. 288 comments.
    comment rally FAIL.

  • ricebowl

    I think he got banned. Some of his posts got deleted.

  • MMM___Soylent

    Should have shorted the comment rally.

  • Guest

    He’s just giving an update (many of us here appreciate it!). Read what he says: Since he didn’t post his exit, he wants his trade P/L calculated on the original basis. No need to over-analyze his post.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Actually I don't know what I'm saying (as usual), I just thought it sounded funny

  • ricebowl

    What was the previous high?

  • rosocecasita

    SPY:GLD is nearing some critical trend lines:

    http://goo.gl/9xp7

    I think we bounce between the two red lines until noone can take it anymore, then we break to the downside.

    Another Observation: Gold was up, Spy was up but significantly less. This could be the forming of a DEADLY Inverse Correlation between Gold and Spy. Watch This Closely!

  • LilSpaniard

    Any thoughts on the zero lite readings during the last few minutes of the day?

  • WTFed

    that RUT breakout was not very impressive.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    spx:gold below ALL rodent MAs

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    He's not banned, just cleaned some “hamster shyte list” jokes and second identity (big no-no around here), and copyright infringement on hamster avatar

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    expanded flat from A from 1070, B to 1047, C to 1023

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    SPARTA!!!!!!

  • Gold_Gerb

    finally (301).

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I didn't know if you were around so when WTFed did 300 I gave the gerbil yell (wink wink)

    btw, just “il” missing from your name

  • MMM___Soylent

    “Gerbil Yell” – Isn't that a Billy Idol song?

  • Gold_Gerb

    dude, someone <cough cough> shaved it off.
    ;-D

  • Gold_Gerb
  • PRSGuitars

    We are stubborn fools to expect a downtrending market for long.

    We are fools for not covering sooner.

    We are fools for not also trading to the long side.

    We are fools for not hedging shorts in 2009 by taking the DX short or EUR/USD long.

    We are not fools for trying to short this market.

  • AudioTactics

    Bove cuts Q1 Goldman estimate to $3.99 from $4.88

  • randomwalker

    IMO. Overbought short-term. What I'm referring to is the flattening curve of the intermediate-term KST..when that thing bottoms and joins the primary trend, that is likely to be a strong move..if all three are in commonality it could be a very strong move. <All IMHO> Good luck.

  • Anonymous

    Lighten up man and stop pontificating!

  • randomwalker

    itsAH

    Breaking news: JLo appointed new head of UN:

    http://bit.ly/cITTtW

    No more complaining about the competence of these higher-ups!

  • ricebowl

    You mean B to 1057 and C to 1123, no? Otherwise I'm really confused.

  • ricebowl

    Also, although my understanding of EWT is very limited, wouldn't the A wave end at 1112, the B end at 1086, and the C end at 1123? Reading the chart that way, the B wave subdivides cleanly into a 3-wave corrective move. There really wasn't any significant downside from 1044.50 until we got up to 1112.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    almost, this one is an hamster song 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ya missing the razor already? got hooked to it?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    we'd be bigger fools to think all's well behind the mirror in this new wonderland… Alice on LSD wouldn't come close to this market

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    B to 1045 (lower than v of 1) then 5 up as expanded flat

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    A 1104 february 02

  • PRSGuitars

    She would've been long from 760 (or else off with her head! like the rest of 'some of us' who paid 'tuition' which 'sucked dick'…)

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Theta is on a one way continuous street, only the velocity changes, it picks up speed a lot in the last 30 days.

  • gregn

    Read this from thinkorswim:
    “But theta doesn't reduce an option's value in an even rate. Theta has much more impact on an option with fewer days to expiration than an option with more days to expiration. For example, the XYZ Oct 75 put is worth $3.00, has 20 days until expiration and has a theta of -.15. The XYZ Dec 75 put is worth $4.75, has 80 days until expiration and has a theta of -.03. If one day passes, and the price of XYZ stock doesn't change, and there is no change in the implied volatility of either option, the value of the XYZ Oct 75 put will drop by $0.15 to $2.85, and the value of the XYZ Dec 75 put will drop by $0.03 to $4.72.”

    To me, this sounds like the option is affected by theta ONLY if the price does not change that day.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    No, they are simple stating that “all other things being equal” here is what will happen to the value related to theta. Theta is the time value of the option, of course, it goes down in a continuous way, just as time keeps ticking along, even in a broken clock.

  • Anonymous

    Hey thanks for your help. I understood theta fine until I read that and I guess I just misread it.

  • gregn

    Here is my view of /ES. I am still bullish until we break the short term uptrend line that I have. I exited my long calls at around 2:00 today. http://screencast.com/t/NTQyZjc3

  • AudioTactics

    No idea why but this comes to mind…

    http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41J9XJzmF

  • http://it'sasecret hindyomen

    very short term bearish on es
    in particular, bearish for tmw

    just took off my long hedge against my swing short position
    at 1118.

    a retest of the 50sma on dailies around 1106 tmr is likely, imo

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    no prob, its tricky language

  • n2thezonez

    Good chart.

    I agree that if the SPX found its way to that trendline crossroads, it would make for a very intriguing entry.

  • gregn

    Another entry would be touchdown at intersection of 61.8 fib and trendline, but I will reload longs at touch of either. http://screencast.com/t/MTMzMWI5Mz

  • gregn

    You guys will appreciate this: http://screencast.com/t/NTQ4MTg3NW. Notice that the place is out of business 😉

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST
    NEW POST

  • ricebowl

    I see. I was considering 1045 as the bottom of wave 1. If it's not too much trouble to explain, where do you count your 1-2-3-4-5 of 1 of P3? Again, I'm no EWTer, but this is how I assumed it ought to be counted:

    1 – 1150.41 -> 1131.39 (Jan. 15)
    2 – 1131.39 -> 1150.45 (Jan. 19)
    3 – 1150.45 -> 1071.59 (Jan. 29)
    4 – 1071.59 -> 1104.73 (Feb. 2)
    5 – 1104.73 -> 1044.50 (Feb. 5)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    If I tell you mole will kill me (heretic EWT is a dangerous subject and even orthodox EWT gives several alt counts)

    NEVERTHELESS you are already an heretic, retracements cannot exceed the start of the impulse (e.g. in your count 2 1150.45 MUST be lower than 1 1150.41)

  • chronographics

    Momentum is rolling over in the EUR in the very short term – Market currently 1.3645 if we can make some downside progress over the next hour say 1.3620 pref. below 1.3600 then maybe just maybe we see a turn of larger proportions here. If we stay above 1.3620 then we test 1.3680 and likely higher

  • chronographics

    Well that was a nice little sell off to 1.3593, however the subsequent bounce is a worry (for shorts) as it showed good upside movement with the change in momentum. Also it shows what looks like a nice five up to the 1.3663 high and so far a three down to 1.3615. very short term momentum looks like it will turn up shortly – failing a break to lower levels immediately.
    I use oscillators in ranging markets and look at their change in momentum and movement relative to the movement in the instrument to decide on the markets direction, its a simple yet effective tool if you have a limited amount of indicators and time to do any analysis.
    Off to get some sleep.

  • chronographics

    Well that was a nice little sell off to 1.3593, however the subsequent bounce is a worry (for shorts) as it showed good upside movement with the change in momentum. Also it shows what looks like a nice five up to the 1.3663 high and so far a three down to 1.3615. very short term momentum looks like it will turn up shortly – failing a break to lower levels immediately.
    I use oscillators in ranging markets and look at their change in momentum and movement relative to the movement in the instrument to decide on the markets direction, its a simple yet effective tool if you have a limited amount of indicators and time to do any analysis.
    Off to get some sleep.

  • Guest

    Heeeelllpp!!!

  • Guest

    Do you have an update? Things are looking pretty grim. The double top is too obvious. Everyone thinks we are going to 1200 so we'll probably not get there, but 1180 looks like a sure thing. At which point does your wave count get busted? Maybe this is a bull market since markets spend more time in bull than bear.

    Would appreciate your thoughts. Thank you.