Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos are back at the 25-hour SMA watering hole. Great spot to add positions and climb the latter. If we get a breach then look for a drop to the 25-hour BB below and then the 100-hour which would then be near 1490.

Gold working its way further down – the 25-hour seems to be a great spot to add postions. Long on a breach of course, especially it happens while that Net-Line Buy Level (NLBL) is blocking the way.

Meanwhile over in the woodshed ole’ bucky is not getting its butt out of the gate – again. Taken down twice at line of scrimmage and I’d be short there until further notice.

More goodies below for my intrepid subs – quite a bit of action on the FX front this morning:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Soybeans seems to be wanting to work its way higher. We now have both SMAs rising below and I like that type of context. Long with a stop below both SMAs.

Bonds – the 30-year failed its 25-hour and is sitting below its hourly NLSL. I’m short with a stop above the 25-hour. If you’re late to the game use the NLSL to structure your entries (e.g. short with a stop above).

Okay, on to FX: The USD/JPY may be painting a last kiss goodbye of that 25-hour. I’m currently short but willing to flip for a long (above the SMA) if it turned out to be a false breach.

USD/CHF – this trade has been like taking candy from a baby. Please sir, can I have another?

USD/CAD – inverse situation going on here and I like the context.

EUR/JPY – may also be a LKGB situation. I’m short with a stop above.

EUR/CAD may be losing momentum. Short right now but am keeping my stop above that expiring NLBL as the SMA is still rising. Odds support continuation so I have no compunction about changing into a long dress if the occasion merits it (i.e. a breach of the SMA). Yes, I’m wearing underwear.

EUR/AUD – just follow the red brick road.

CAD/JPY – I’m on the fence here. Based on the other Yen pairs I currently want to be short. All of those will most likely resolve in the same direction so watch them together and see which one sticks its head out first.



This entry was posted on Monday, January 28th, 2013 at 8:36 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • molecool

    Ha – bonds on the move!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    All over these setups

  • molecool

    Have fun!

  • AmazingLarry

    Dammit. Calling my mortgage broker now. 😉

    VIX back up a bit

  • Joe_Jones

    This bond move could be the beginning of long trip down to the abyss, unless of course  bots are suddenly switched to sell risk mode. I’ll be buying TBT on the dip.

  • Joe_Jones

    big red candles on ES today. I wish ZL would confirm the move.

  • Exar Kun

     Yeah, not taking any long position today despite xxx…

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Darth_Gerb
  • Curiousmind3861

    Is it finally time to long yens? my 80 years old mother in law who lives in Asia recently told me on 2 occasions about the collapse of the yen and how not to touch it…I think the media is all over this in Asia….

  • Darth_Gerb

    I think you need to qualify the time frame for that Query.

    bigger pic

  • Joe_Jones


  • itslance

    I keep getting bad volume data from TDA.  Anyone else having this problem?

  • ridingwaves

    Jumping in NUGT with the double bottom touch.. tight stop in case the cartel hasn’t dined enough

  • Skynard

    Wow, that thing has been decimated!

  • Darth_Gerb

    I believe the word decimated is only 10%

    thank g*d I sold at 16, that stuff bites!!!

  • Joe_Jones

    the expanding BB do not bode confidence for a knife catching move.

  • ridingwaves

    Decimated works for me..I like it and I’m not worried….I’m hearing capitulation in miner investors…

  • Darth_Gerb

    no worries mate.  I’ll be looking for a cross of the median before I dream of any longs.
    look back at August, and the volume.
    given today is Expiry for gold?  a high volume event today would be a good clue.
    but if it wants to drop farther, so be it.

  • Skynard

    Short /ES @ 97, AUD shorts back on:)

  • Joe_Jones

    I’d be happy to go long that sucker once I see some sort of bottoming pattern.
    OTOH, my downside target on my silver miner was reached today on the daily chart. However, given the sideways action over the last 2 months, I’m not buying yet for L-T holding until I see a floor being painted.

  • Joe_Jones

    looks sensible, given that ZL’s gone fishing today.

  • Skynard

    Jim’s dead, but that is OK. Stop just above the high:)

  • Joe_Jones

    No trade for me today so far. Just watching and waiting for an edge to show up.

  • Darth_Gerb

    the dam edge is stuck in a rock.
    need some prayer & magic.

  • JackSparow

    AUD says welcome back :)

  • ridingwaves

    I’m happy! I like the odds…gold expiration makes is more juicy…

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, yep. Just wasn’t sure if support would hold. Waited for the retrace.

  • Skynard

    Come to Papa! See what the ragging bull does with a drop below VWAP.

  • bullregard

    NG attacking the volume hole…

  • ridingwaves

    DMND just jumped above 50 and is above 20..need volume to confirm…14.50 short ratio…watching closely..could be a fun short squeeze…debt is issue here…buyout candidate possibility..will post when I jump in..

  • bullregard


  • ridingwaves

    KERX has been a monster today…missed the early morning pullback…nice profit if you jumped in at 4.75..

  • ridingwaves

    and now the big boys are rip the longs…

  • Joe_Jones
  • Skynard

    Full short @ VWAP failure

  • i Bergamot

     You know, winter almost over and Uggs are still unsold on shelves.
    That aside, look at your CMF. Want to go against this money flow…?
    Just checking, not arguing

  • i Bergamot

     Sorry, still hangover from weekend.
    Have DECK on my mind.
    But Chaikin Money flow comment still applies

  • AmazingLarry

    Anyone seeing jacked internals on the 10 and 30-year in the medium term, or is this another bear trap fakeout? I’m seeing downside breaches of NLSL’s on the /ZN on the monthly, weekly and daily. 

  • bullregard

    /NG holding on its big toe at the edge of the precipice… as tense as a bad Spielberg movie… such a pleonasm anyway.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    potential for a short bounce is certainly there.

    I see a nice triangle on HL 60min for a long/short setup as well:

  • bullregard

    Never a Rubicon to cross… we just have to learn to jump from Doubt to Doubt, and not get wet… or burned.

  • molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

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