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Monday Morning Briefing
17

Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleNovember 26, 2012

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Welcome back! I trust you all enjoyed your four day turkey masacre. My initial plans to take a few days off notwithstanding I somehow found myself slinging code pretty much most of it. Good stuff is in the works and you should be looking forward to a glorious 2013 – assuming of course the Mayans were wrong.

The spoos were pumped like a cheap hooker all Friday and we now find ourselves at the 100-day SMA. Which as you may recall is the  final hurdle separating us from the annually scheduled bear smackapalooza, a.k.a. the Santa Rally. What’s interesting on the daily is that Friday was an outside period and we’ll cover that a bit later today. The hourly is retesting the 25-hour SMA and I want to be long here with a stop below the SMA. IF she blows (i.e. drops below) then I would flip this sucker as the NYSE session may then turn into a post holiday leftover shakeout.

Before we get to the FX lair let me demonstrate to you why I keep calling NG the nutty gas. Those candles are nasty by any definition and I’m glad I didn’t get caught by that guillotine. Now I’m not sure what exactly is going on today but I’ll be long here if I see a pressing reason – i.e. an hourly inside candle or signs of a floor. My stop in any scenario would be below that hourly BB line. If you take this one please keep your exposure *very* limited.

Now all of the action today is on the FX front – please join me there:
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USD/CHF – right at the 25-hour SMA. I want to be long here if I see it holding above. Noobs – if I go long at an SMA then my stop is always a few pips/ticks below, preferably at an uneven number.

USD/CAD got the same memo and it seems to be creeping above already. The candles have slowed down a little which gives us an easy entry but it also may mean we’ll get whipsawed a little. Unfortunately the 25-hour SMA is still pretty steep and won’t be acting as support. Thus I will have to be disciplined with my stop. Either the setup pans out or we’ll wait for another opportunity.

In contrast the long setup on the EUR/USD is much easier to defend. You know what to do. This is my personal hedge in the face of an exchange rate that’s been costing me dearly at the ATM.

CAD/JPY – short term Maginot line touch and holding. That’s pretty much all we need to know, right?

AUD/USD looking a bit weak here at the 25-hour. Let’s see if it can bounce back above the line and we’ll talk about a long position. NOT interested in a short – too messy right now.

AUD/JPY almost mirroring the CAD/JPY – well, almost as it’s still a bit further away. I am waiting for a touch here before I jump into the fray.

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Good to be back – see you in a few hours.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ronebadger

    One “hourly inside (NG) candle”…coming up

  • wrc1k

    Reporting in: Closed out of the most profitable trade all year last Tuesday. Sitting on all cash, ready to bank coin again.

  • jmoney3000

    Mole-

    I know you usually post stuff on the Yen in your medium/long term posts but not day to day.  It’s looking pretty interesting, especially on the longer term charts, and Im wondering if you got involved around the 100 WMA or if you’re waiting for a re-test?

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, should we ignore the Blue arrow signal today?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Awfully quiet day… just long the euro a min ago.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re not going to ask me every day now, are you? 😉

    I don’t see a pressing reason – they just don’t seem to be very good today. Maybe it’s because of the tiny range.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy – is everyone still gone? Should I even put up a post today?

  • MrMargin

    $DELL looks ready to squeeze the shorts (http://scharts.co/TgDCNa).

    Same goes for $FSLR (http://scharts.co/TgDLAq) which seems to be forming a giant wedge and had a short ratio of  5.1 on 31 October 2012.

  • captainboom

    I’m around, but I’ll be in China next week.

  • Tronacate

    Took profits in GC from last week……nice ride

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very nice! (my Borat impression)

  • AmazingLarry

    In with trailing stops on both. FSLR volume is almost non-existant. It’s been a pressure cooker up against the $26 level for months. DELL is so hated it must be loved, I figure.

    Taking the long bond here at the NLBL.

    Still trying to play it cool like Fonzie on /CL. Bobby, you out there?

  • wrc1k

     
    Bene, Don Mole. I need a man who has powerful friends. I need a
    million dollars in cash. I need, Don Mole, all of those charts
    that you carry around in your pocket, like so many nickels and dimes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Brace yourself – I’m about a drop a container.

  • MrMargin

    $DELL broke the 50d which for me is the sign that things might start soon. Ideally, it would close above and it could use a bit more volume, so I’m still cautious. But it’s a slow day for the entire market, so the low vol may not mean that much.
    I’m still waiting for $FSLR to break 26. I thought about going long with a stop below the 50d, but $SPX is overbought in the short term and we might see a bit of shakeout and get a better entry on $FSLR. The chart looks very promising in any case and we might well see the price double over the next couple of months if the Santa rally materialises.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Here short € looking for /ES short entry

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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