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Out Of Noise Emerges Opportunity
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Out Of Noise Emerges Opportunity

by The MoleFebruary 27, 2014

I think we can all agree that this has been a rough week across board. Forex has been leading the crazy train and I’m sensing quite a bit of whipsaw frustration in myself as well as fellow traders and readers. Of course that is exactly when you have to be ready to jump on entry opportunities. For out of noise often emerges opportunity.

Since the recent lows the bulls have been pumping the tape higher and we managed to rack up ten consecutive higher highs on the E-Mini S&P 500. After an obligatory shake out day we proceeded higher but hit a low volume wall near 1860.  This week we’ve seen sideways gyrations on top of the 100-hour SMA which eventually resulted in a fast drop toward the lower 100-hour lower Bollinger (which I pointed out previously).

Overnight we have bounced back higher and the onus is now on the bulls to push prices back above both short term SMAs. I am seeing a delicious inflection point near 1844 – specifically I would want to be long above it but load up on a few shorts if we approach 1842 – my stop (and reversal point) would be 1844. On the long side I would recommend a stop below 1842 minimum – even if we continue higher we’ll most likely get a last kiss goodbye.

Be careful around 10:00am EST – chairwoman (so they claim) Yellen is scheduled to deliver another speech. Although I don’t expect her to rock the boat that Bernanke kept from hitting the cliffs during his term we should always expect some wanton gyrations. Yes – you are not paranoid – they are out to get you 😉

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • Dyellowflash

    Re-shorted whatever I had TP-ed back at 16215. Ideally does not get above 16217-21 or stay above for a decent amt of time. This is a reactive continuation move after TP-ing bcos Flash system is not ready yet – it needs another 20mins to give new signal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Symbol?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Symbol?

  • Dyellowflash

    Dow Index. Its called US30 at my ECN platform.

  • SilverEagle

    FUCKING TOS!!!! Anyone else having issues with them today? Submitting orders 30 seconds late, not canceling orders, won’t let me move my stops. Just got absolutely fucked.

  • Dyellowflash

    TP-ed half from 16215 at 16166. No signal or anything, just tot I shld lighten up a little bit b4 the beautiful woman speaks.

  • stovis

    I’m getting sick of all the minute by minute reversals in everything.

  • Paleface

    I have connection problems with TOS this whole week.

  • bdoone

    Welcome to the grindfest like Mole said. Obvious by blog traffic here and elsewhere. Beat both sides into submission then make the move

  • ridingwaves

    TSLA short musings, would 262 be close enough to 265 as top retest? or does it need to be within a point?

  • SilverEagle
  • SilverEagle
  • Dyellowflash

    Gotten that 50% back at 16217, that was also the high tick of day for Dow so far.

    Comment made 1hr ago, shld not go above 17-21 or stay above it or else I might flip.

  • Dyellowflash

    Gotten that 50% back at 16217, that was also the high tick of day for Dow so far.

    Comment made 1hr ago, shld not go above 17-21 or stay above it or else I might flip.

  • Cerebro82

    Kiwi strong all week across the board. It’s painting a green weekly bar against all currencies. NZDUSD nearing .8391 which was last week’s resistance before it sold off.

  • Cerebro82

    Kiwi strong all week across the board. It’s painting a green weekly bar against all currencies. NZDUSD nearing .8391 which was last week’s resistance before it sold off.

  • Dyellowflash

    Something strange on Zero. The 5m top went up during the last 20m but the bottom white line went down during this same period. I had never seen them gone separate way so definably b4.

  • Dyellowflash

    Something strange on Zero. The 5m top went up during the last 20m but the bottom white line went down during this same period. I had never seen them gone separate way so definably b4.

  • Cerebro82

    Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet. -Rosseau Don’t be discouraged by the chop. Stick to your guns, as long as your plan is prudent. We can’t chop forever. Month ends tomorrow. Be patient.

  • Cerebro82

    Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet. -Rosseau Don’t be discouraged by the chop. Stick to your guns, as long as your plan is prudent. We can’t chop forever. Month ends tomorrow. Be patient.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Mole given this Forex craziness, what’s your suggestion for trading CI alerts, 1/2 R’s?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a dog & an overcoat…and a cooked meal?
    luxurious dude.

  • SilverEagle

    ZL going parabolic

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Shhhhhh.

  • SilverEagle

    Trying to jinx it. You buy in here after a 17 point run this morning??

  • Cerebro82

    Short AUDJPY at 91.60. 3 standard lots. Will add another 3 at the breach of 91. Stop 91.82 (today’s high)

  • Cerebro82

    GBPCAD close to making new highs for the day. +40 pips from yesterday’s inside day break out. So far so good.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Interactive Brokers – their service sucks but their spreads are awesome, especially on the FX side – half a pip or so.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is probably NOT a bad idea.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Awesome Mole signal today.

  • Dyellowflash

    Does anybody want my take on what to expect of the mkt from the ZL’s current behavior? 😉

  • wandering196

    sure

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Always like to hear your take, bud

  • Dyellowflash

    Hourly zero spikes past 1.0, next price higher high but zl makes lower high will be it for the bulls.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think it’s going to do pushups next.

  • SilverEagle

    So to sum it up. If we get another hourly Zero spike above one and price breaks above 1849.50 but ZL peaks below 2 you think that’s nail in the coffin?

  • Dyellowflash

    NONO… I mean if price breaks above or near 1849.5 but ZL makes a lower peak (previous high was ard 1.3), then that’s it for the bulls. It doesn’t work for all types of hourly above 1.0 but it shld work for those that looks like the one today.

  • Dyellowflash

    See this example the spike happened on Wed, the 2nd lower ZL peak happened on Friday and its bon voyage.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Given all the various instruments and campaigns…is anybody keeping track of results?. What’s working? I can’t keep up with Heisenburg…but I’d like to know if it is working.
    With the whipsaw FO entries might be the choice. Any stats?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The 60 is doing okay and the 240 got slammed this week. I think we have been running too many correlated charts and I’m also still working out the chart selection rules. Again, this is the beta test period and it’s all still coming together. The goal for the system is about 3-4R per week and it’s not been doing that – I think being more selective with the weekly candidates is key. For instance I had an inkling Monday that this would be a tough week – would have been better to reduce exposure on HB.

    Give it another month or two – I’ll be letting the beta run until we see reliable and solid results per the system’s specifications.

  • Dyellowflash

    e.g. 2 – this one is clearly – note the following on that 3rd wed in the hourly timeframe:
    1) hourly made a spike up to above 1 but touching or slightly less than 1.5
    2) stays only 1hr at the place and come down to 0 or slightly below 0 in the next hr,
    3) makes a higher price high by usu double the length of the first price wave
    4) above makes with zl doing a lower high, ideally below 1.0

    5) price broke through the low of the 2nd price wave which made the lower high zl for confirmation.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no. i’m staying out of the twinkie filling zigzag zone.
    /es 1829 – 1857

  • ridingwaves

    throw some lotto money at ISR…not a day trade…short term gyrations as hedgies, mm’s looking for shares…2.10 target, run 25,2 bb on 30 min for snapshot.. stop just under 20sma for bear raids

    http://s24.postimg.org/ug4tlm391/ISR_PF_chart_11414.jpg

  • Cravenmorehead2

    I figured things would be tough. I’ve been trading some Ivan entries on GC…..things look good then boom….stopped out. And then I start thinking I should widen the stops to give it room to breathe and then think,….well fuck….why have rules if you don’t follow them…..it’s frustrating. And then you end up going….well I’m going to take 1/2R profit…..well shit….when you going to take 1/2R….when u gonna take 2R…..how many 12Rs we gonna pass up taking a 1/2…..grrrrrr

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ivan’s core candle rules are part of Heisenberg but it’s a completely different system with different campaign management rules. So don’t jump to conclusions please – and if you trade along (or paper trade) then I suggest you stick with the alerts.

  • ridingwaves

    OSIR going into earnings on 3/5 has been hammered today…shorts are now in bad position, earnings will be good with a sale to mesoblast and growth of grafix….picked up some shares at 16…stop at todays low…

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Oh I know…not throwing anything under the bus….just thinking out loud. I guess my biggest question is whether the core candle rules really offer anything over a just random entry with good campaign management rules. Does a candle pattern really mean anything more than perhaps a time of day based entry or throwing darts? Just wondering.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    A setup does not make a RBT … additionally few, here, adhere to my multi-timeframe approach, let alone running multiple RBT’s … instead of allowing your frustration quotient increase … get even … channel that energy into doing your own back application of a RBT … in other words create a solution.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Thanks for these

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted Dow 16278. The 2nd wave up is roughly 7 ES points now which is about = to the first wave up of 8 pts.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Backtesting is virtually meaningless without a large out of sample segment. There are a zillion systems that prove this out time and again. And things work until they don’t

  • Dyellowflash

    Hourly for 2nd leg up is still less than 1.0, but things looking troublesome as we broke the 10 days channel up, unless its a big fake move… Now let’s see if the 2nd half of the plan works out.

  • Cravenmorehead2

    Took a regression line crossover entry on 30 min GC backed by a FO a few candles before….s at 1333

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • SilverEagle

    Has to break 0 though on the hourly for confirmation, right?

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Totally on the same page.