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Reversal Looming
47

Reversal Looming

by The MoleOctober 14, 2011

The current tape is very positive and sets us up for a nicely timed reversal starting sometime next week and leading into week 43:

As you can see we have a little bit more to go before we hit both the 100-day SMA and the upper boundary of my 25-day BB. Yesterday’s mini correction was very healthy for the overall uptrend – it produced a reset in the consecutive days up and it shook out some of the weak hands. Not that I am eager to take or hold long positions here, no sirree. A correction is needed as I don’t think that we will make it through the Gobi desert of volume without squeezing out some of the excess ballast. We need some tall candle chasers to push through that low volume desert from hell. That’s right – even the suckers have their role to play and are needed to help us rats bank the coin we so rightly deserve 😉

We touched the lower BB line on the VIX this morning instead of breaching it. That buys us a bit more time and if the longs are lucky it’ll help pointing the entire bubble back to the downside. If things work out according to plan however I’d like to see a spike lower outside that lower boundary which would set us up for a VIX sell signal. Heck – it’s been July since we saw one of those!

I suggested a long trade on sugar futures to the subs yesterday – once that 100-day SMA was breached it was confirmation of a push higher. I have taken the liberty to point out possible target ranges. If you’re a noob – T1 is where you take 70% of your position off the table (your mileage may vary based on your risk profile and capital commitment guidelines) and the rest may be held into T2 with a stop near T1.

I have one more chart for the subs today – not many setups I find delectable right now but this one is worthwhile pointing out:
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Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Soybean futures – I love them soybeans as they are tasty, highly directional, and they are fast movers. We just breached the 25-day SMA but my signal to take a long position is the 1275.75 NLBL on the hourly panel. It’s good for a bit longer and if successful should take us into 1340 as T1.
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That’s all I have for today – have a wonderful weekend!

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Anonymous

    /SB fargin sweet.
    I’ve got 31.97 on a MONTHLY chart to meet a DeMark completion 
    Been waiting on this trade for weeks

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    as minority whip for the leeches, we bow.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole, I’ll be really glad to know when you get short here and your timing is lining up nicely with my own thoughts.

    Incidentally folks, the EURUSD just bust through a NLBL on the ZeroFX so I’m not buying this current shakedown.  

    We could be about to hit that buying capitulation point any minute now. 

  • Anonymous

    especially if it gets rejected at the hourly NLBL

  • Anonymous

    Fuck the babysitter has just arrived.  What to do? LOL

  • Anonymous

    Fuck the babysitter if she is cute

  • Anonymous

    Didn’t you see my edit? 😀

  • Anonymous

    Just now…
    😉

  • Anonymous

    RUT/IWM barely made new highs after AUD/JPY popped out of 5min wedge at 1pm est and climbed hard but stalled just below earlier high as ES backed off a little on a +1250 TICK. Bot 100 SPY weekly puts .31 on high TICK as AUD/JPY dropped quick from 79.87 to 79.675.  Got out for +.07 when equities didn’t follow.  I thought the AUD/JPY drop would get more than 1.75 pts in ES and we could get some downside follow thru. WTF….Oh well, I’ll take it. Back to the churn.

  • Anonymous

    can she trade?

  • Anonymous

    Can barely find the on switch on a computer mate 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Anyone have input on how the big blue spikes play out once a weekend occurs in between?  Seems we should have gone down by now via the spikes on currencies.  Wondering if a weekend rest negates the signal.

  • Anonymous

    Not that Mole didn’t give us his 2 cents above.  Much appreciated Mole!

  • denali92

    Opex always does produce turning points – specifically Opex week from the Tuesday (remember the 2008 top?) to generally the Tuesday after (though Aug 2010 it was the Wednesday)

    Mole and the Zero will provide the best edge, but my rule of thumb is that it is safe to short when we are hourly OB from Wed thru Friday (see Feb 2011) and best to buy when we are hourly oversold – Tuesday onwards.  Maybe the selling time will be Wednesday morning near the open post Apple’s earnings (this is what happend in Jan 2011)

    The post employment turn was surprisingly short – it should have been at least two days…. but I guess Google’s week earlier than usual (normally the night before Opex) earnings release changed the market dynamics.

    -D

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is she hot?

  • Anonymous

    Get out and enjoy the weekend.

  • Anonymous

    ok putting a 10 dow point trailing stop here (as good as getting out!) and leaving short orders for 11,625 and 11,650.  Have a great night folks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    As if that ever stopped us 😉

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Set up a web cam and turn up the heater – let physics take care of the rest.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unfortunately I hate to say that you represent the vast majority.

  • Anonymous

    Now you talking!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous

    NICE! I like it thanks!

  • Anonymous

    wife powdering nose…just cut position and went 50% short position.. leavin orders overhead intact.  i will be fully short at 11,650 if we get there in the next hour or so. cheers.  really going this time LOL.

  • Anonymous

    see you! have a good weekend mate.

  • Anonymous

    wife powdering nose…
    Don’t make it so easy for us mate.

    😉

  • volar

    I met a guy at the airport the other day with an evilspeculator shirt.

    I asked him who he was etal.. to my surprise, he was a leech.

    – but At least your leeches support you with t- shirts!

  • Anonymous

    great tune. saw a Lordi concert in Helsinki once during the eurovision contest… pretty cool.

  • Anonymous

    Looks like we are about to blast off

  • Anonymous

    It’s < 1 on 5, but I look forward to seeing how it resolves.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous

    liam is freaking sweet!

  • Anonymous

    really trying to stop out all they can…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh – one more:

    http://youtu.be/SgneUsb6FOI

  • Anonymous

    Sheep time

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Standard operating procedure.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He’s literally fishing for abuse.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ha – that is cool! 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Didn’t see that one coming, did ya?

  • Anonymous

    I really thought we would go higher EOD. 

  • Anonymous

    wow freaking cheesy ending..but it did close above 1200 decisively 

  • Anonymous

    what is /SB? thank you

  • Anonymous

    /SB is the symbol for sugar futures. It’s easy to figure out unknown symbols by opening a free paper trading account with ThinkorSwim. Just type it in, and voila, it’s there and you have a chart.

  • Anonymous

    thank you!

  • mail

    S&P index next week 1230 max —-1165—1040—1001-980
    looh chart,

    http://www.mclinbeursanalyse.blogspot.com